Gary Sheffield got his first hit in a Mets uniform last night, but that hit also happened to be the 500th home run of his long career. Sheff did it in classic fashion, cleaning out a Mitch Stetter mistake left up an in with what, at 40, might still be the quickest wrists in the game. It's been a tough spring for Sheffield, who Jim Leyland didn't think was part of his best 25 to carry into April. The Mets took a shot, and they'll use Sheffield this year as a veteran righty power bat off the bench. That's exactly how he was used last night, and his homer tied a game New York would go on to win in the 9th.
Sheff's 500th home run cements his place in Cooperstown, so long as voters are willing to overlook some rather thin steroid allegations. He spent the better part of 15 years as one of the most dangerous right-handed hitters in the game. Sheffield joins Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Alex Rodriguez as the only players to ever amass 500 homers and 250 steals. He's had seasons of 25 homers for six different clubs, and nine All-Star appearances for five different teams. He never led his league in homers, but he did win the batting title (.330) in his only full season in San Diego.
But more than anything, what's set Sheffield apart are the things he brings to the field everyday. The most fierce competitor out there, he could never be accused of dogging it or not doing whatever it takes to win. Despite having hitters like A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi and Matsui, when Sheffield played for the Yankees he was always the guy I didn't want to see come up with men on base late in a game. He's in the top 30 all-time for RBI, with good reason. If you make a mistake up in the zone against him, like Stetter did last night, he'll make you pay seemingly everytime without fail.
There's no question Sheff is a testy guy. He quickly wore out his welcome as young hotshot in Milwaukee, forced his way out of places like San Diego, L.A. and New York, and has never really been afraid to voice his opinions. There aren't a lot of guys like Sheffield left. I'll miss him when he decided to hang them up, which could happen after this year. But if there was any question about his HOF credentials before, it's gone now. He's in.
Some other thoughts on this the first day in three weeks that I haven't had to spend at least 90 minutes in a car:
No matter what the Yankees and their fans might be saying, losing Xavier Nady to TJ surgery for the year is not good. Given the fragility or inconsistency of their outfield corps, Nady was one guy I believe the Yankees were counting on to contribute something close to the .305-27-97-76 line he posted between Pittsburgh and New York in '08. They'll plug in Nick Swisher for now, but they need additional depth. Names like Jason Repko and Austin Kearns have been suggested as possible trade candidates, but they won't be as important going forward as Nady would have been.
In other news, Cody Ransom sucks.
Speaking of the Yankees, they opened the new ballpark this week. I gotta say, I'm impressed, especially with views like this. That familiar frieze surrounding the park harkens back to what the old park looked like prior to the 1970s renovation. I look forward to going there sometime soon, although I might have to get a second job just to afford a ticket.
Harry Kalas died this week, taking from us one of the best voices in all of sports. My favorite memory of Kalas came during my first trip to Citizens Bank Park in May of 2006. In between innings, they played a video on the scoreboard during which Phillies players described their personal favorite foods. After going through most of their roster, right at the end of the video, Kalas' face showed up on the screen. In that low monotone voice, Kalas said the following: "I'd have to say my favorite food is cottage cheese." I couldn't stop laughing for a solid three minutes. Not only was it one of the most random possible favorite food choices, but the way he said it in his famous voice just killed me. He was one of the greats. RIP, Harry.
And, speaking of announcers, there's a lengthy Globe Magazine piece about Jerry Remy that is absolutely fascinating. You might be shocked to learn some of the information about the RemDawg, which is exactly what good feature writing should do. I look at something like this and say, "This is what I want to do."
I'm going to try and keep this updated as often as I can, but to be honest, I hope my sports focus for the next few weeks will be on the Stanley Cup quest for our Boston Bruins, especially now that the Celtics have lost both KG and Game 1 of their series with Chicago. We'll see how things go.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Thursday, April 16, 2009
The Rough Start
OK. I know what you're thinking. "Here comes Jake to tell us everything's going to be alright, even though we're definitely screwed." Well, I am here to tell you everything's alright, that it's too early to panic, and the Red Sox just need to find some consistency. But I'd also be lying if I said the lackluster 3-6 start doesn't cause at least some level of trepidation for me.
Let's start with the good. Kevin Youkilis has been hot since Opening Day, slugging at a .722 clip with a couple bombs to boot. Jason Bay has been similarly solid, hitting .345 with an impressive 10 walks in nine games. For all the concern about Jason Varitek, he hit two homers in the Tampa series from the left side of the plate. As for the pitching, Brad Penny looked solid in his only start thus far, and Tim Wakefield's sterling complete game yesterday provided a reminder of what the old man can do with the knuckler is dancing (his new batterymate, George Kottaras, has also been impressive behind the plate and with the bat). Justin Masterson was terrific in the long relief role on Wednesday, and I feel confident whenever he's in the game. Two of the more unheralded members of the bullpen, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, have combined to throw ten scoreless innings to begin the season. And overall, the team defense has been sterling, living up to every preseason expectation.
So all that is really good. Unfortunately, the list of bad things is a bit longer.
There's no easy way to put this: David Ortiz looks lost at the plate. He got his first extra-base hit of the season yesterday. I'm sorry, but given his skill set in 2009, Ortiz is no good to the Red Sox or any team if he's only hitting singles (although maybe he's transforming since he did try, unsuccessfully, to steal a base last week). He just looks flat-out awful right now. It's not good. I'm not blaming this not having Manny hitting behind him; I just wonder if we've seen the best of David Ortiz. Knowing him, though, he could go on a tear the next few weeks and make all the naysayers look bad. I hope like hell that happens.
Dustin Pedroia (7-for-39, 1 RBI) and Jacoby Ellsbury (7-for-36, 2 R) are yet to get untracked. Given their youth and talent, I'm not worried about how they'll perform over the whole season. I'm a bit more concerned about the likes of Mike Lowell (8-for-35, 5 Ks) and J.D. Drew (7-for-30, 7 Ks) and how this season will treat them. To be fair, both have come up with some clutch hits and each have smashed two homers. But with their age and injury history...I just don't know.
Jed Lowrie started the year 1-for-18 before Terry Francona placed him on the DL with that chronic wrist injury. With Julio Lugo still on the shelf, Nick Green has actually filled in rather nicely. These journeyman types obviously love to be in the big leagues for any extended stay, and typically try as hard as possible to impress when given the chance. Still, I never thought I'd get to a point where I'm itching for Lugo to return.
People are whining about this team's offense, but I've been most concerned about the starting pitching. After wowing everyone on Opening Day, Josh Beckett was mediocre in his second start and the extra-circulars earned him a six-game suspension (totally ridiculous, by the way). It at least appears that Beckett is fully healthy following an '08 riddled with nagging injuries. Whether he can be consistent remains a question.
Jon Lester has struggled in both of his starts thus far. It strikes me as odd because he's got 11 Ks and just two walks in 11 innings, yet he's allowed 18 hits and three homers (he allowed 14 homers all of last year). So it's a good sign that he's still striking people out. My worry is that the load he shouldered last year could be catching up to him sooner than I expected.
I'm not sure I can bring myself to discuss what's happened to Dice-K. I'm completely stunned. Everyone wants to blame the WBC, but it's more than that. I almost don't want to know.
Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez have a combined ERA of 7.20 in 10 innings. Yikes. And what can we say about Jonathan Papelbon? He's been getting the job done, but at what cost? Does he really only have a 94 mph heater with no life? Is this really the same guy? Where's the deadly splitter? Christ, where's that average slider? Give us something, Paps! Meanwhile, Daniel Bard has nine strikeouts in six innings at Pawtucket so far. The Sox ought to cut bait on Lopez, bring up Bard and scare the piss out of Papelbon in the process. Then maybe he'll come to his senses and start throwing some frickin' splitters.
So what are the things I'm really worried about? Definitely Ortiz. He just doesn't look the same. I'll worry about Lester until he stops giving up so many hits. And I'm worried about Papelbon, in general. I'm not quite at that level yet for Drew or Lowell, or any of the eternally-fickle bullpen guys, but it could get there soon.
Otherwise, let's all just calm down. Four games against Baltimore, who's #2 starter is Koji Uehara, might be just what the Sox need. Perhaps they sweep the four games, and life will go back to being just wonderful.
Either way, in my opinion, it's too early to get too up or down about a team. We are exactly 1/18th of the way through the season. There's many more games to be play, transactions to be made, and fun to be had.
Before I go, take a look at the first thing I've written about baseball that I also got paid for: a game recap from an extra-inning affair between Pentucket and Triton. (Do me and everyone at the Daily News a favor and click on that link 1,000,000 times today, please?) It was great to get out there, hope it's warmer next time.
Take care and enjoy the spring. It's awesome to watch baseball every night again, isn't it?
Let's start with the good. Kevin Youkilis has been hot since Opening Day, slugging at a .722 clip with a couple bombs to boot. Jason Bay has been similarly solid, hitting .345 with an impressive 10 walks in nine games. For all the concern about Jason Varitek, he hit two homers in the Tampa series from the left side of the plate. As for the pitching, Brad Penny looked solid in his only start thus far, and Tim Wakefield's sterling complete game yesterday provided a reminder of what the old man can do with the knuckler is dancing (his new batterymate, George Kottaras, has also been impressive behind the plate and with the bat). Justin Masterson was terrific in the long relief role on Wednesday, and I feel confident whenever he's in the game. Two of the more unheralded members of the bullpen, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, have combined to throw ten scoreless innings to begin the season. And overall, the team defense has been sterling, living up to every preseason expectation.
So all that is really good. Unfortunately, the list of bad things is a bit longer.
There's no easy way to put this: David Ortiz looks lost at the plate. He got his first extra-base hit of the season yesterday. I'm sorry, but given his skill set in 2009, Ortiz is no good to the Red Sox or any team if he's only hitting singles (although maybe he's transforming since he did try, unsuccessfully, to steal a base last week). He just looks flat-out awful right now. It's not good. I'm not blaming this not having Manny hitting behind him; I just wonder if we've seen the best of David Ortiz. Knowing him, though, he could go on a tear the next few weeks and make all the naysayers look bad. I hope like hell that happens.
Dustin Pedroia (7-for-39, 1 RBI) and Jacoby Ellsbury (7-for-36, 2 R) are yet to get untracked. Given their youth and talent, I'm not worried about how they'll perform over the whole season. I'm a bit more concerned about the likes of Mike Lowell (8-for-35, 5 Ks) and J.D. Drew (7-for-30, 7 Ks) and how this season will treat them. To be fair, both have come up with some clutch hits and each have smashed two homers. But with their age and injury history...I just don't know.
Jed Lowrie started the year 1-for-18 before Terry Francona placed him on the DL with that chronic wrist injury. With Julio Lugo still on the shelf, Nick Green has actually filled in rather nicely. These journeyman types obviously love to be in the big leagues for any extended stay, and typically try as hard as possible to impress when given the chance. Still, I never thought I'd get to a point where I'm itching for Lugo to return.
People are whining about this team's offense, but I've been most concerned about the starting pitching. After wowing everyone on Opening Day, Josh Beckett was mediocre in his second start and the extra-circulars earned him a six-game suspension (totally ridiculous, by the way). It at least appears that Beckett is fully healthy following an '08 riddled with nagging injuries. Whether he can be consistent remains a question.
Jon Lester has struggled in both of his starts thus far. It strikes me as odd because he's got 11 Ks and just two walks in 11 innings, yet he's allowed 18 hits and three homers (he allowed 14 homers all of last year). So it's a good sign that he's still striking people out. My worry is that the load he shouldered last year could be catching up to him sooner than I expected.
I'm not sure I can bring myself to discuss what's happened to Dice-K. I'm completely stunned. Everyone wants to blame the WBC, but it's more than that. I almost don't want to know.
Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez have a combined ERA of 7.20 in 10 innings. Yikes. And what can we say about Jonathan Papelbon? He's been getting the job done, but at what cost? Does he really only have a 94 mph heater with no life? Is this really the same guy? Where's the deadly splitter? Christ, where's that average slider? Give us something, Paps! Meanwhile, Daniel Bard has nine strikeouts in six innings at Pawtucket so far. The Sox ought to cut bait on Lopez, bring up Bard and scare the piss out of Papelbon in the process. Then maybe he'll come to his senses and start throwing some frickin' splitters.
So what are the things I'm really worried about? Definitely Ortiz. He just doesn't look the same. I'll worry about Lester until he stops giving up so many hits. And I'm worried about Papelbon, in general. I'm not quite at that level yet for Drew or Lowell, or any of the eternally-fickle bullpen guys, but it could get there soon.
Otherwise, let's all just calm down. Four games against Baltimore, who's #2 starter is Koji Uehara, might be just what the Sox need. Perhaps they sweep the four games, and life will go back to being just wonderful.
Either way, in my opinion, it's too early to get too up or down about a team. We are exactly 1/18th of the way through the season. There's many more games to be play, transactions to be made, and fun to be had.
Before I go, take a look at the first thing I've written about baseball that I also got paid for: a game recap from an extra-inning affair between Pentucket and Triton. (Do me and everyone at the Daily News a favor and click on that link 1,000,000 times today, please?) It was great to get out there, hope it's warmer next time.
Take care and enjoy the spring. It's awesome to watch baseball every night again, isn't it?
Sunday, April 5, 2009
2009 Boston Red Sox Preview
Tomorrow is Opening Day, so tonight is the last chance I have to get out my 2009 Red Sox preview before we begin play. It appears tomorrow's tilt against the Rays at Fenway will likely be delayed with a 90 percent chance of rain for the afternoon in the Boston area. So we might have to wait until Tuesday for the season to really begin. In the meantime, I'll offer my thoughts for the season to come.
The 2008 Red Sox overcame so many obstacles to win 95 games during the season, and given the perils of clubhouse strife and injuries to so many key players, it's truly amazing that they actually came within one game of getting back to the World Series. The players were kept in check and on focus by Terry Francona, who with each passing year solidifies his status as perhaps the greatest manager in Red Sox history and one of the best managers/coaches in the history of the city along with Red Auerbach and Bill Belichick. I feel confident the Red Sox would have won the World Series had they gotten past the Rays in Game 7, and with a fully healthy team all along I'm positive they would have won it all. But that's not how it went down, and the team had a full winter to address how they'd get back to the Fall Classic in 2009.
Theo and Co. missed out on Mark Teixeira, who went to the Yankees instead. But they didn't panic by overpaying for the likes of Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn. They went out and signed several low-cost, high-reward veterans that primarily added to depth for their roster. Through some other shrewd moves, it appears the Red Sox have assembled their finest bullpen during the John Henry regime. The depth of their starting pitching isn't too far behind. While some have questions about their offense, if things break their way I can't imagine it will be much of a problem. And if the Sox pitching is as good as advertised, their offense won't need to be astronomical.
With that, let's dive right into a position-by-position breakdown of the 2009 Red Sox:
CATCHERS (2): Jason Varitek, George Kottaras.
It was cold winter of discontent for Varitek, his agent Scott Boras, and the Red Sox. Boras advised his client to turn down the Red Sox offer of salary arbitration, a decision that ultimately cost Varitek around $5 million this year. By displaying incredible arrogance in suggesting prospective employers use Jorge Posada's inane $52 million contract as a benchmark in negotiations, Varitek had no suitors besides the Red Sox, and Boston certainly wasn't going to bid against itself for a 36-year-0ld catcher with a .672 OPS in 2008. It's only because of Varitek's distinguished service in Boston the Red Sox were willing to guarantee $5 million with a $3 million player option for 2010 in this contract.
I wish we'd been able to pull off a reasonable trade for either of Texas' young duo of Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden or Arizona's Miguel Montero. It's still very possible that could happen even before this season ends, but I don't want to see the Red Sox give up Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden for a catcher the other team doesn't need. So Varitek was really our only option for 2009. I don't expect him, at 37, to improve on that .672 OPS because that's just not what happens to catchers at this age. He still knows how to handle a World Championship-caliber pitching staff, and his defense is good enough to get by. We'll just have to live with at least one more year of Tek weakly flailing at 95 mph heaters with men on base.
The backup situation became clear when the club somewhat surprisingly released Josh Bard, who'd come on a non-guaranteed contract and was expected to be Tim Wakefield's personal catcher. When Kottaras appeared to exhibit just as strong of a prowess at fielding the floaters, it was a simple question of economics; we don't care what we get offensively out of our backup catcher, so if they can both catch the knuckleball the same, do we go with the guy making $1.7 million or the guy making $400,000? A no-brainer, really. Kottaras still needs work with the bat, but since he's out of options and was once a highly-touted prospect, the Red Sox were smart to give him the job. Maybe we find out Kottaras is the Sox catcher of the future? It's possible.
INFIELDERS (7): Chris Carter, Nick Green, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis. DL: Julio Lugo.
Alex Cora departed for the Mets, and with Lowrie's emergence last year there wasn't much need to bring him back. The starting shortstop situation remains fluid, as it was the only job on the entire roster that wasn't entirely determined prior to spring training. Lugo needed to have his knee scoped following a promising start to his spring, so Lowrie will get most of the starts while Lugo works his way back. Should Lowrie get off to a hot start, it might be difficult for Lugo to crack the lineup. Journeyman Nick Green makes the Opening Day roster after spending all of last season in the minors.
Lowell is trying to come back following offseason hip surgery, and even though he's good to go for tomorrow he doesn't seem to be all the way back. It might just take a few weeks for him to really get comfortable in actual games. On the other side of the diamond, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia present the best all-around right side of the infield in baseball (I'd take them over Ryan Howard and Chase Utley because of Howard's low average and mediocre defense). Youkilis and Pedroia are both signed to team-friendly extensions that buy out some of their free agent years. They represent everything great about this era of Red Sox baseball: professional ballplayers who leave everything out there on the field and fans can never question their desire. These guys only want to do one thing when they're out there, and that's win. Perhaps 2008 will stand as their respective career years. But every Red Sox fan knows this team will be better for having them and I'm so happy Theo locked up two of my favorite players ever for years to come.
I once again lumped Ortiz into this group because this is just where he fits. He certainly saw his fair share of action at first base for the Dominican Republic WBC team. Papi claims his wrist issues are a thing of the past. I didn't watch many games during spring training, but in one game I saw Ortiz turn around a hard inside fastball and deposit it behind the right field wall at City of Palms Park. That's definitely a good sign for the wrist. Will he ever get back to his '06 form, when he set the club record for homers at 54? It's not likely. This will be his first full season without Manny Ramirez, and we'll know what kind of player the Red Sox have going forward based on his performance this year.
OUTFIELDER (4): Rocco Baldelli, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury. DL: Mark Kotsay.
Words can't describe how much I loved the Baldelli signing. I'd advocated the move as soon as Baldelli proved himself to still be a productive player during the postseason. He's learned to deal with his channelopathy and I'm confident he'll be healthy enough to contribute quite a bit to the 2009 Red Sox.
I'm predicting a huge year for Bay, who'll find the Green Monster to be the best friend he's ever had. The quiet, unassuming star will hit 6th and without the pressure of being "the guy," the road is wide open for Bay to go .300-30-100-90-10 and set himself up for a big payday somewhere after the season. We saw what Drew can do when healthy when he carried the team for a whole month in Ortiz's absence, and I'll continue to support him and hope he does well. I feel like there's this undercurrent in Red Sox Nation that somehow sadistically hopes that J.D. Drew fails, and that's not fair. Nobody works harder, plays harder or hustles more than Drew on this team, and I hope he plays a full season and finally gets the credit he deserves.
That brings us to Ellsbury. I think we all expected a little more based on his 2007 postseason performance, however unfairly based that expectation was. It's awesome to have such an exciting homegrown player make it in the Bigs. You'd have to go back to Ellis Burks to find a similar talent, and even he wasn't much of a threat to steal 50 like Jacoby. He no longer has Coco Crisp breathing down his neck, and center field belongs to him. At 25, Ellsbury still has room to grow and with time he can still become one of the game's best leadoff hitters.
STARTING PITCHERS (5): Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny. DL: John Smoltz.
Beckett's struggles last year are well-documented. He reverted back to his '06 tendency to rely heavily on his fastball and dealt with nagging injuries all season. A 4.03 ERA isn't what you expect from your ace, so look for Beckett to bounce back in a big way. This will be the most important year of his career, as he goes into the last guaranteed year of his contract and will likely be engaged in extension talks over the next year. How much the Red Sox are willing to commit to Beckett is mostly dependent on just how he bounces back.
2008 was Jon Lester's breakout season. He became the stopper, the guy they looked to during a losing streak to turn things around. It all began when Lester threw a no-hitter in May, and he just took off from there. All of his pitches were working all year, and he truly emerged as the ace into the postseason. I'm still not sure he's reached his potential at 25. Like Youkilis and Pedroia, Lester signed a very team-friendly extension that was the biggest ever for a pitcher with his small amount of service time. I'm worried about how he bounces back from throwing 236 innings last year, but in the short term that shouldn't be an issue. I look forward to Lester establishing himself as one of the best lefties in baseball in the next few seasons.
Next up is Dice-K, who's 2008 season provided as much of a statistical enigma as humanly imaginable. When someone has an 18-3 season with a 2.90 ERA, that'd seemingly be enough to warrant a Cy Young Award. But when he did it in only 167.2 innings with 94 walks, it changes the perception. Matsuzaka's looked great between his Japanse WBC dominance and his limited action in Red Sox spring training. It seems like he's ready to turn the corner and finally find himself in the American professional ranks. If these three guys do what they're supposed to do, I'll be shocked if the Red Sox don't win the World Series.
Tim Wakefield is back for his 15th season in a Boston uniform. I would hope the Sox brass will be willing to pull the plug on Wake if he struggles and Clay Buchholz continues to impress in Pawtucket as he did all spring in Florida. With things being so close in the AL East, they can't afford to wittingly lose games if they know they have someone better in the minors. Brad Penny will make his first start in April 12, and I'm ready for him to have a better season than A.J. Burnett so we can stick it to those Yankees fans. Come June, Smoltz will be ready and a potential postseason rotation of Beckett-Lester-Matsuzaka-Smoltz would almost guarantee rings for all involved. With Buchholz and Michael Bowden at Triple-A, I've never been less worried about a Boston rotation.
BULLPEN (7): Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Justin Masterson, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito.
There's no doubt this is the best bullpen that's been assembled in the history of the franchise. Jonathan Papelbon anchors a crew of professionals that have proven themselves at just about every level. Papelbon is coming off a decent season by his standards, and the price tag for him will continue to rise with each passing year. No Red Sox fans really want to hear this, but starting next offseason the team will have to look at the real possibility of trading their superstar closer as his price tag rises. I have no doubt the Red Sox do not want to pay a closer $15 million a season, which is likely what Papelbon will demand once he reaches his final year of arbitration and may look for an extension in that AAV neighborhood. It's just not good business to keep that guy and then let him go for nothing after six years. I'm not sure if you've heard of this kid Daniel Bard who throws 100 effortlessly. He'd make a good closer, for a lot cheaper. In the meantime, I look forward to another All-Star caliber season from Papelbon while he's still here.
We're innundated with great set-up men, which is such a good problem to have. Saito, who may end up being the ultimate bargain of the offseason, looks really solid and gives Boston a great, lights-out option. His countryman, Okajima, is ready for another great season. Masterson will be a full-time reliever for the first time, and I'm pumped to see what Rusty can do in a full year in the 'pen. Ramirez comes from KC, and he seems ready to step right into the role Mike Timlin played here for so many years. Delcarmen could find himself traded because the Sox have so many other solid guys. Lopez is the weak link, but Francona only needs him for one lefty at a time. This bullpen lacks a long man, but hopefully they won't need it.
It's late, so I'll wrap this up quickly. This is my 18th season following the Red Sox, and I've never been happier to be able to watch a team of professionals everyday as I am with this one. It's been a long, hard winter for the sport, with so many teams weary to improve themselves amidst the difficult economy. In the 1930s, baseball provided a way out, a healthy diversion from the tribulations of the most dreary times for our country. I hope baseball tries to market itself the same way over the next few months. Sure, baseball won't cure all that ails us (I'm not George Will, after all) but it's something to remind us about our past, and the good times we've all had with the game. I hope the Red Sox provide that for all of New England in 2009.
I'll be in attendance on Wednesday, which also happens to be my 23rd birthday.
Let's. Go. Sox.
The 2008 Red Sox overcame so many obstacles to win 95 games during the season, and given the perils of clubhouse strife and injuries to so many key players, it's truly amazing that they actually came within one game of getting back to the World Series. The players were kept in check and on focus by Terry Francona, who with each passing year solidifies his status as perhaps the greatest manager in Red Sox history and one of the best managers/coaches in the history of the city along with Red Auerbach and Bill Belichick. I feel confident the Red Sox would have won the World Series had they gotten past the Rays in Game 7, and with a fully healthy team all along I'm positive they would have won it all. But that's not how it went down, and the team had a full winter to address how they'd get back to the Fall Classic in 2009.
Theo and Co. missed out on Mark Teixeira, who went to the Yankees instead. But they didn't panic by overpaying for the likes of Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn. They went out and signed several low-cost, high-reward veterans that primarily added to depth for their roster. Through some other shrewd moves, it appears the Red Sox have assembled their finest bullpen during the John Henry regime. The depth of their starting pitching isn't too far behind. While some have questions about their offense, if things break their way I can't imagine it will be much of a problem. And if the Sox pitching is as good as advertised, their offense won't need to be astronomical.
With that, let's dive right into a position-by-position breakdown of the 2009 Red Sox:
CATCHERS (2): Jason Varitek, George Kottaras.
It was cold winter of discontent for Varitek, his agent Scott Boras, and the Red Sox. Boras advised his client to turn down the Red Sox offer of salary arbitration, a decision that ultimately cost Varitek around $5 million this year. By displaying incredible arrogance in suggesting prospective employers use Jorge Posada's inane $52 million contract as a benchmark in negotiations, Varitek had no suitors besides the Red Sox, and Boston certainly wasn't going to bid against itself for a 36-year-0ld catcher with a .672 OPS in 2008. It's only because of Varitek's distinguished service in Boston the Red Sox were willing to guarantee $5 million with a $3 million player option for 2010 in this contract.
I wish we'd been able to pull off a reasonable trade for either of Texas' young duo of Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden or Arizona's Miguel Montero. It's still very possible that could happen even before this season ends, but I don't want to see the Red Sox give up Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden for a catcher the other team doesn't need. So Varitek was really our only option for 2009. I don't expect him, at 37, to improve on that .672 OPS because that's just not what happens to catchers at this age. He still knows how to handle a World Championship-caliber pitching staff, and his defense is good enough to get by. We'll just have to live with at least one more year of Tek weakly flailing at 95 mph heaters with men on base.
The backup situation became clear when the club somewhat surprisingly released Josh Bard, who'd come on a non-guaranteed contract and was expected to be Tim Wakefield's personal catcher. When Kottaras appeared to exhibit just as strong of a prowess at fielding the floaters, it was a simple question of economics; we don't care what we get offensively out of our backup catcher, so if they can both catch the knuckleball the same, do we go with the guy making $1.7 million or the guy making $400,000? A no-brainer, really. Kottaras still needs work with the bat, but since he's out of options and was once a highly-touted prospect, the Red Sox were smart to give him the job. Maybe we find out Kottaras is the Sox catcher of the future? It's possible.
INFIELDERS (7): Chris Carter, Nick Green, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis. DL: Julio Lugo.
Alex Cora departed for the Mets, and with Lowrie's emergence last year there wasn't much need to bring him back. The starting shortstop situation remains fluid, as it was the only job on the entire roster that wasn't entirely determined prior to spring training. Lugo needed to have his knee scoped following a promising start to his spring, so Lowrie will get most of the starts while Lugo works his way back. Should Lowrie get off to a hot start, it might be difficult for Lugo to crack the lineup. Journeyman Nick Green makes the Opening Day roster after spending all of last season in the minors.
Lowell is trying to come back following offseason hip surgery, and even though he's good to go for tomorrow he doesn't seem to be all the way back. It might just take a few weeks for him to really get comfortable in actual games. On the other side of the diamond, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia present the best all-around right side of the infield in baseball (I'd take them over Ryan Howard and Chase Utley because of Howard's low average and mediocre defense). Youkilis and Pedroia are both signed to team-friendly extensions that buy out some of their free agent years. They represent everything great about this era of Red Sox baseball: professional ballplayers who leave everything out there on the field and fans can never question their desire. These guys only want to do one thing when they're out there, and that's win. Perhaps 2008 will stand as their respective career years. But every Red Sox fan knows this team will be better for having them and I'm so happy Theo locked up two of my favorite players ever for years to come.
I once again lumped Ortiz into this group because this is just where he fits. He certainly saw his fair share of action at first base for the Dominican Republic WBC team. Papi claims his wrist issues are a thing of the past. I didn't watch many games during spring training, but in one game I saw Ortiz turn around a hard inside fastball and deposit it behind the right field wall at City of Palms Park. That's definitely a good sign for the wrist. Will he ever get back to his '06 form, when he set the club record for homers at 54? It's not likely. This will be his first full season without Manny Ramirez, and we'll know what kind of player the Red Sox have going forward based on his performance this year.
OUTFIELDER (4): Rocco Baldelli, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury. DL: Mark Kotsay.
Words can't describe how much I loved the Baldelli signing. I'd advocated the move as soon as Baldelli proved himself to still be a productive player during the postseason. He's learned to deal with his channelopathy and I'm confident he'll be healthy enough to contribute quite a bit to the 2009 Red Sox.
I'm predicting a huge year for Bay, who'll find the Green Monster to be the best friend he's ever had. The quiet, unassuming star will hit 6th and without the pressure of being "the guy," the road is wide open for Bay to go .300-30-100-90-10 and set himself up for a big payday somewhere after the season. We saw what Drew can do when healthy when he carried the team for a whole month in Ortiz's absence, and I'll continue to support him and hope he does well. I feel like there's this undercurrent in Red Sox Nation that somehow sadistically hopes that J.D. Drew fails, and that's not fair. Nobody works harder, plays harder or hustles more than Drew on this team, and I hope he plays a full season and finally gets the credit he deserves.
That brings us to Ellsbury. I think we all expected a little more based on his 2007 postseason performance, however unfairly based that expectation was. It's awesome to have such an exciting homegrown player make it in the Bigs. You'd have to go back to Ellis Burks to find a similar talent, and even he wasn't much of a threat to steal 50 like Jacoby. He no longer has Coco Crisp breathing down his neck, and center field belongs to him. At 25, Ellsbury still has room to grow and with time he can still become one of the game's best leadoff hitters.
STARTING PITCHERS (5): Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny. DL: John Smoltz.
Beckett's struggles last year are well-documented. He reverted back to his '06 tendency to rely heavily on his fastball and dealt with nagging injuries all season. A 4.03 ERA isn't what you expect from your ace, so look for Beckett to bounce back in a big way. This will be the most important year of his career, as he goes into the last guaranteed year of his contract and will likely be engaged in extension talks over the next year. How much the Red Sox are willing to commit to Beckett is mostly dependent on just how he bounces back.
2008 was Jon Lester's breakout season. He became the stopper, the guy they looked to during a losing streak to turn things around. It all began when Lester threw a no-hitter in May, and he just took off from there. All of his pitches were working all year, and he truly emerged as the ace into the postseason. I'm still not sure he's reached his potential at 25. Like Youkilis and Pedroia, Lester signed a very team-friendly extension that was the biggest ever for a pitcher with his small amount of service time. I'm worried about how he bounces back from throwing 236 innings last year, but in the short term that shouldn't be an issue. I look forward to Lester establishing himself as one of the best lefties in baseball in the next few seasons.
Next up is Dice-K, who's 2008 season provided as much of a statistical enigma as humanly imaginable. When someone has an 18-3 season with a 2.90 ERA, that'd seemingly be enough to warrant a Cy Young Award. But when he did it in only 167.2 innings with 94 walks, it changes the perception. Matsuzaka's looked great between his Japanse WBC dominance and his limited action in Red Sox spring training. It seems like he's ready to turn the corner and finally find himself in the American professional ranks. If these three guys do what they're supposed to do, I'll be shocked if the Red Sox don't win the World Series.
Tim Wakefield is back for his 15th season in a Boston uniform. I would hope the Sox brass will be willing to pull the plug on Wake if he struggles and Clay Buchholz continues to impress in Pawtucket as he did all spring in Florida. With things being so close in the AL East, they can't afford to wittingly lose games if they know they have someone better in the minors. Brad Penny will make his first start in April 12, and I'm ready for him to have a better season than A.J. Burnett so we can stick it to those Yankees fans. Come June, Smoltz will be ready and a potential postseason rotation of Beckett-Lester-Matsuzaka-Smoltz would almost guarantee rings for all involved. With Buchholz and Michael Bowden at Triple-A, I've never been less worried about a Boston rotation.
BULLPEN (7): Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Justin Masterson, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito.
There's no doubt this is the best bullpen that's been assembled in the history of the franchise. Jonathan Papelbon anchors a crew of professionals that have proven themselves at just about every level. Papelbon is coming off a decent season by his standards, and the price tag for him will continue to rise with each passing year. No Red Sox fans really want to hear this, but starting next offseason the team will have to look at the real possibility of trading their superstar closer as his price tag rises. I have no doubt the Red Sox do not want to pay a closer $15 million a season, which is likely what Papelbon will demand once he reaches his final year of arbitration and may look for an extension in that AAV neighborhood. It's just not good business to keep that guy and then let him go for nothing after six years. I'm not sure if you've heard of this kid Daniel Bard who throws 100 effortlessly. He'd make a good closer, for a lot cheaper. In the meantime, I look forward to another All-Star caliber season from Papelbon while he's still here.
We're innundated with great set-up men, which is such a good problem to have. Saito, who may end up being the ultimate bargain of the offseason, looks really solid and gives Boston a great, lights-out option. His countryman, Okajima, is ready for another great season. Masterson will be a full-time reliever for the first time, and I'm pumped to see what Rusty can do in a full year in the 'pen. Ramirez comes from KC, and he seems ready to step right into the role Mike Timlin played here for so many years. Delcarmen could find himself traded because the Sox have so many other solid guys. Lopez is the weak link, but Francona only needs him for one lefty at a time. This bullpen lacks a long man, but hopefully they won't need it.
It's late, so I'll wrap this up quickly. This is my 18th season following the Red Sox, and I've never been happier to be able to watch a team of professionals everyday as I am with this one. It's been a long, hard winter for the sport, with so many teams weary to improve themselves amidst the difficult economy. In the 1930s, baseball provided a way out, a healthy diversion from the tribulations of the most dreary times for our country. I hope baseball tries to market itself the same way over the next few months. Sure, baseball won't cure all that ails us (I'm not George Will, after all) but it's something to remind us about our past, and the good times we've all had with the game. I hope the Red Sox provide that for all of New England in 2009.
I'll be in attendance on Wednesday, which also happens to be my 23rd birthday.
Let's. Go. Sox.
2009 AL West Preview
We're just a couple hours away from the start of the 2009 MLB season, with the World Champion Phillies set to take on Atlanta at Citizens Bank Park at 8 p.m. With that, let's head right into the last of my three AL preview posts, a look at the West Division.
LOS ANGELES - Manager: Mike Scioscia
The Angels were the only team in baseball to win 100 games in 2008, playing Mike Scioscia's game predicated on pitching, defense, fundamentals and the occasional pop. The mid-season acquisition of Mark Teixeira gave them that pop down the stretch, sporting a staggering 1.081 OPS in 54 games for the Halos. There was no doubt, going into October, that the best team in baseball was the Angels. But they shot themselves in their collective foot over and over during their ALDS bout with Boston, and lost in four games.
They couldn't keep Teixeira, who never really showed much interest in staying on the West Coast once the season was over. They refused to spend big bucks on Manny Ramirez, the middle-of-the-order presence they really needed once losing out on Tex. They let K-Rod go to the Mets, as well as waving goodbye to stalwart Garret Anderson and starter Jon Garland. They signed on the rejuvenated Brian Fuentes to close on a modest two-year pact. And once it became clear they could sign him on the cheap, they picked up Bobby Abreu for $5 million to provide some stability at the top of the order.
I said last year the Angels would really go for it in '08 know their group wouldn't stay together. Well, they ended up not losing as much as I expected, although after '09, Vlad Guerrero, John Lackey and Chone Figgins will all be free agents. So maybe this is the year they'll really need to push if they want to win with this group.
Unfortunately for them, I just don't see it. John Lackey and Ervin Santana are both dealing with elbow injuries with varying degrees of severity. Lackey should be OK to return with a month of rest, but Santana could be looking at Tommy John surgery if his elbow issue doesn't respond to rest and treatment by the end of April. Joe Saunders was excellent for most of last season, but is dealing with his own "dead arm" issues at the present time, and Jered Weaver seems to have come around from early-spring shoulder soreness. So when your only solid, healthy starter to begin a season is Dustin Moseley, well, that's not a good sign. In the bullpen, Fuentes should be alright but look for young Jose Arredondo to continuing developing as an excellent 8th-inning option for Scioscia.
I can't help but be slightly underwhelmed by their offense. Guerro is declining, and without him there's no significant power source in the lineup. It will be good to see the continuing offensive development of younger guys like Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales, who's been handed the first base job and looks ready. The outfield defense could be an adventure with Abreu, Guerrero and Juan Rivera sharing 2/3 of the duties everyday. The Angels will continue to have the most expensive fifth outfielder in baseball, with Gary Matthews set to earn $33.5 million over the next three years. Had Matthews been a free agent this past offeseason, I'd be interested to see if he could have done any better than the minor league deal Andruw Jones got from the Rangers.
Anyway, color me skeptical about this team's ability to be impressive in 2009. As you'll see through the rest of this preview, this year's AL West isn't very good, so I do expect the Angels to be in contention most of the year. Whether or not they have the goods to get into October once again is still a big question.
Prediction: 2nd place.
OAKLAND - Manager: Bob Geren
The A's went into rebuilding mode prior to last season, but hung around with the big boys all along and churned out a respectable 75 wins. Heading into the winter, GM Billy Beane set out to put together a contender for 2009, and made some surprising moves to make that happen.
Many in baseball expected the Rockies to trade Matt Holliday over the winter, but I'm not sure how many thought he'd get dealt to Oakland. Beane shipped deposed closer Huston Street, solid outfield prospect Carlos Gonzalez and young lefty Greg Smith to Colorado in exchange for the slugging left fielder. Should the A's find themselves out of contention during the summer, Beane could cut the chord and send Holliday out if he feels he can get more value than the two draft picks he'll get when Holliday signs with the Yankees or Red Sox next offseason.
Sure, Holliday can expect some regression in his numbers moving from Coors Field to a pitcher's park. But he hit .308, .301 and .280 on the road, respectively, in each of the last three seasons. He's still one of the game's best hitters, and the A's desperately needed some offense after finishing dead-last in the AL in runs, hits, batting average, slugging and OPS in 2008.
Beane didn't stop there. He brought back Jason Giambi, who will primarily play first base and can still provide some pop. After a prolonged negotiation, Orlando Cabrera was signed to be an upgrade over perennial disappointment Bobby Crosby. Beane coaxed Nomar Garciaparra out of a potential retirement to serve as the club's super-utility man. I definitely expect Nomar to see plenty of time at third base with Eric Chavez practically living on the DL the last few years. For Red Sox fans, there's a sense of irony seeing Cabrera and Garciaparra on the same team, both playing on small contracts, just four seasons after they were traded for each other in the most fateful trade in club history. I expect Nomar to get a HUGE ovation when he plays his first game in Fenway later this year.
Oakland's bullpen doesn't look quite as strong as it did earlier in spring training with the news that potential closer Joey Devine will visit Dr. James Andrews and has been put on the 60-day DL. Bob Geren will go with sidewinder Brad Ziegler at closer, who's coming off a fantastic rookie campaign that saw him begin his career with a record 39 consecutive scoreless innings. Santiago Casilla, Jerry Blevins, and new additions Russ Springer and Michael Wuertz should make up a solid crew.
They'll need to be solid, because one area where Beane failed to improve the A's was their tenuous starting rotation. Justin Duchscherer, who's pretty much always injured, will start 2009 injured. That leaves immortal names like Dana Eveland and Dallas Braden to top the rotation while highly-touted, electric-armed prospects Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill (who most agree need more time in the minors) will be thrown into the inferno immediately. Sean Gallagher, the main piece the A's got for Rich Harden last year, will start as the long man but should be back in the rotation soon.
Despite this, I'm picking the A's to win the West. I'm not sure I've ever picked a team to win its division with such a shoddy rotation, but this particular division looks like a total crapshoot. If they can get some consistency, and Cahill and Anderson find immediate success, the A's have a real shot. But those are big "ifs," no question.
Prediction: 1st place.
SEATTLE - Manager: Don Wakamatsu
A complete, unadulterated debacle. That's really the only way to describe the 2008 Mariners season. After a successful '07, and everyone riding their bandwagon during the spring, they came out and nothing went right. Injuries, ineffectiveness, bad personnel choices and more all happened in Seattle last year. On June 16, the M's finally put clueless GM Bill Bavasi out of their misery and three days later manager John McLaren was similarly shitcanned. Besides the typically-solid years from Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, Jose Lopez and Felix Hernandez, nobody performed up to expectations for Seattle. When the dust settled, they were the first team ever with a $100+ million payroll to finish a season with 100 losses.
Jack Zduriencik, a longtime scout with tremendous credentials, was hired as GM and one of his first moves was to hire Don Wakamatsu, a former Rangers and A's coach, to be the first Asian-American manager in MLB history. Zduriencik set out to rebuild the Mariners by focusing on defense. He shipped out overvalued closer JJ Putz and in return brought back outfielders Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez, both of whom are fantastic defenders that, when combined with Ichiro, should help their starters by cutting down hits and runs significantly.
On-base machine Russ Branyan will start at first base, and Ken Griffey, Jr. will return to Seattle for one last hurrah in front of the fans he wowed for so many years. The inept Kenji Johjima will remain behind the plate, but top prospect Jeff Clement is banging down the big league door.
As far as pitching goes, the Mariners need to hope Erik Bedard finds some health and can be solid behind Hernandez. They're stuck with Carlos Silva and his bloated contract for the next three seasons, but at least they'll be out from under Jarrod Washburn's slightly-less bloated deal after this season. He's certainly a prime candidate to be traded at the deadline for a team needing a lefty starter. When it was decided Brandon Morrow would be the team's closer, Ryan Rowland-Smith was inserted as the club's fifth starter.
The Mariners will not be good this year. But at least with new management, the club appears to be on the right track for their future. It may take a while, however, to fully recover from the old administration's myriad of mistakes.
Prediction: 4th place.
TEXAS - Manager: Ron Washington
People associated with the Rangers probably spent all winter touting their second-place finish in the AL West in 2008, and probably failed to mention they won 79 games and finished a robust 21 games behind the Angels. After a semi-quiet offseason, the Rangers appear to have assembled one of the game's best young offenses but a starting rotation that leaves a lot to be desired.
They dealt off catcher Gerald Laird, and he'll be replaced by the high-upside tandem of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (23) and Taylor Teagarden (25), provided one isn't traded to the Red Sox midseason. Chris Davis (23) hit 17 bombs in 295 at bats in 2008, and people are excited to see how the first basemen will do over the course of a full season. Ian Kinsler (26) has established himself as a premiere offensive second baseman and just needs to put together a full season to enter the conversation as one of the game's best all-around players.
Elvis Andrus (20) will start the season at shortstop, and the defensive whiz might steal 40 bags this year. The outfield will be made up by David Murphy (27), Nelson Cruz (28), and Josh Hamilton (27), the latter of which provided one of the best stories in sports last year. When complemented by veterans Hank Blalock and Michael Young, who has moved to third, it's scary to think just how good this offense will be.
It's equally scary to think of how bad their starting pitching staff will be. I remember being so bummed when the Red Sox were outbid for the services of Kevin Millwood following the 2005 season. Since then, Millwood has not had an ERA for a season lower than 4.52, while many Red Sox hurlers making quite bit less have done much better. The deal that sent John Danks to the White Sox for Brandon McCarthy looks worse and worse every year, and McCarthy will be back after a couple of seasons filled with injury. Kris Benson is back, and can contribute if he's healthy. Again, a huge "if." I'll be interested to see if Neftali Feliz, the young former Braves prospect who was informed by Jeff Locke that he'd been traded to the Rangers, or Derek Holland can make it to Arlington at some point this year.
Ron Washington's bullpen is surprisingly decent, with the chair-throwing Frank Francisco entering the year as closer. They've got good mix with CJ Wilson and Eddie Guardado setting up. They're going to need to be pretty terrific considering how potentially awful their starting rotation will be.
The saving grace for the Rangers is that they have the game's best farm system, according to Baseball America, so they can hope either guys like Holland and Feliz can contribute to their big league club or they can cash in some other prospects to acquire some help. They might be in a position, with all the other clubs in the West being such question marks, to surprise some people. Their starting pitching is holding them back in a big way.
Prediction: 3rd place.
LOS ANGELES - Manager: Mike Scioscia
The Angels were the only team in baseball to win 100 games in 2008, playing Mike Scioscia's game predicated on pitching, defense, fundamentals and the occasional pop. The mid-season acquisition of Mark Teixeira gave them that pop down the stretch, sporting a staggering 1.081 OPS in 54 games for the Halos. There was no doubt, going into October, that the best team in baseball was the Angels. But they shot themselves in their collective foot over and over during their ALDS bout with Boston, and lost in four games.
They couldn't keep Teixeira, who never really showed much interest in staying on the West Coast once the season was over. They refused to spend big bucks on Manny Ramirez, the middle-of-the-order presence they really needed once losing out on Tex. They let K-Rod go to the Mets, as well as waving goodbye to stalwart Garret Anderson and starter Jon Garland. They signed on the rejuvenated Brian Fuentes to close on a modest two-year pact. And once it became clear they could sign him on the cheap, they picked up Bobby Abreu for $5 million to provide some stability at the top of the order.
I said last year the Angels would really go for it in '08 know their group wouldn't stay together. Well, they ended up not losing as much as I expected, although after '09, Vlad Guerrero, John Lackey and Chone Figgins will all be free agents. So maybe this is the year they'll really need to push if they want to win with this group.
Unfortunately for them, I just don't see it. John Lackey and Ervin Santana are both dealing with elbow injuries with varying degrees of severity. Lackey should be OK to return with a month of rest, but Santana could be looking at Tommy John surgery if his elbow issue doesn't respond to rest and treatment by the end of April. Joe Saunders was excellent for most of last season, but is dealing with his own "dead arm" issues at the present time, and Jered Weaver seems to have come around from early-spring shoulder soreness. So when your only solid, healthy starter to begin a season is Dustin Moseley, well, that's not a good sign. In the bullpen, Fuentes should be alright but look for young Jose Arredondo to continuing developing as an excellent 8th-inning option for Scioscia.
I can't help but be slightly underwhelmed by their offense. Guerro is declining, and without him there's no significant power source in the lineup. It will be good to see the continuing offensive development of younger guys like Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales, who's been handed the first base job and looks ready. The outfield defense could be an adventure with Abreu, Guerrero and Juan Rivera sharing 2/3 of the duties everyday. The Angels will continue to have the most expensive fifth outfielder in baseball, with Gary Matthews set to earn $33.5 million over the next three years. Had Matthews been a free agent this past offeseason, I'd be interested to see if he could have done any better than the minor league deal Andruw Jones got from the Rangers.
Anyway, color me skeptical about this team's ability to be impressive in 2009. As you'll see through the rest of this preview, this year's AL West isn't very good, so I do expect the Angels to be in contention most of the year. Whether or not they have the goods to get into October once again is still a big question.
Prediction: 2nd place.
OAKLAND - Manager: Bob Geren
The A's went into rebuilding mode prior to last season, but hung around with the big boys all along and churned out a respectable 75 wins. Heading into the winter, GM Billy Beane set out to put together a contender for 2009, and made some surprising moves to make that happen.
Many in baseball expected the Rockies to trade Matt Holliday over the winter, but I'm not sure how many thought he'd get dealt to Oakland. Beane shipped deposed closer Huston Street, solid outfield prospect Carlos Gonzalez and young lefty Greg Smith to Colorado in exchange for the slugging left fielder. Should the A's find themselves out of contention during the summer, Beane could cut the chord and send Holliday out if he feels he can get more value than the two draft picks he'll get when Holliday signs with the Yankees or Red Sox next offseason.
Sure, Holliday can expect some regression in his numbers moving from Coors Field to a pitcher's park. But he hit .308, .301 and .280 on the road, respectively, in each of the last three seasons. He's still one of the game's best hitters, and the A's desperately needed some offense after finishing dead-last in the AL in runs, hits, batting average, slugging and OPS in 2008.
Beane didn't stop there. He brought back Jason Giambi, who will primarily play first base and can still provide some pop. After a prolonged negotiation, Orlando Cabrera was signed to be an upgrade over perennial disappointment Bobby Crosby. Beane coaxed Nomar Garciaparra out of a potential retirement to serve as the club's super-utility man. I definitely expect Nomar to see plenty of time at third base with Eric Chavez practically living on the DL the last few years. For Red Sox fans, there's a sense of irony seeing Cabrera and Garciaparra on the same team, both playing on small contracts, just four seasons after they were traded for each other in the most fateful trade in club history. I expect Nomar to get a HUGE ovation when he plays his first game in Fenway later this year.
Oakland's bullpen doesn't look quite as strong as it did earlier in spring training with the news that potential closer Joey Devine will visit Dr. James Andrews and has been put on the 60-day DL. Bob Geren will go with sidewinder Brad Ziegler at closer, who's coming off a fantastic rookie campaign that saw him begin his career with a record 39 consecutive scoreless innings. Santiago Casilla, Jerry Blevins, and new additions Russ Springer and Michael Wuertz should make up a solid crew.
They'll need to be solid, because one area where Beane failed to improve the A's was their tenuous starting rotation. Justin Duchscherer, who's pretty much always injured, will start 2009 injured. That leaves immortal names like Dana Eveland and Dallas Braden to top the rotation while highly-touted, electric-armed prospects Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill (who most agree need more time in the minors) will be thrown into the inferno immediately. Sean Gallagher, the main piece the A's got for Rich Harden last year, will start as the long man but should be back in the rotation soon.
Despite this, I'm picking the A's to win the West. I'm not sure I've ever picked a team to win its division with such a shoddy rotation, but this particular division looks like a total crapshoot. If they can get some consistency, and Cahill and Anderson find immediate success, the A's have a real shot. But those are big "ifs," no question.
Prediction: 1st place.
SEATTLE - Manager: Don Wakamatsu
A complete, unadulterated debacle. That's really the only way to describe the 2008 Mariners season. After a successful '07, and everyone riding their bandwagon during the spring, they came out and nothing went right. Injuries, ineffectiveness, bad personnel choices and more all happened in Seattle last year. On June 16, the M's finally put clueless GM Bill Bavasi out of their misery and three days later manager John McLaren was similarly shitcanned. Besides the typically-solid years from Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, Jose Lopez and Felix Hernandez, nobody performed up to expectations for Seattle. When the dust settled, they were the first team ever with a $100+ million payroll to finish a season with 100 losses.
Jack Zduriencik, a longtime scout with tremendous credentials, was hired as GM and one of his first moves was to hire Don Wakamatsu, a former Rangers and A's coach, to be the first Asian-American manager in MLB history. Zduriencik set out to rebuild the Mariners by focusing on defense. He shipped out overvalued closer JJ Putz and in return brought back outfielders Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez, both of whom are fantastic defenders that, when combined with Ichiro, should help their starters by cutting down hits and runs significantly.
On-base machine Russ Branyan will start at first base, and Ken Griffey, Jr. will return to Seattle for one last hurrah in front of the fans he wowed for so many years. The inept Kenji Johjima will remain behind the plate, but top prospect Jeff Clement is banging down the big league door.
As far as pitching goes, the Mariners need to hope Erik Bedard finds some health and can be solid behind Hernandez. They're stuck with Carlos Silva and his bloated contract for the next three seasons, but at least they'll be out from under Jarrod Washburn's slightly-less bloated deal after this season. He's certainly a prime candidate to be traded at the deadline for a team needing a lefty starter. When it was decided Brandon Morrow would be the team's closer, Ryan Rowland-Smith was inserted as the club's fifth starter.
The Mariners will not be good this year. But at least with new management, the club appears to be on the right track for their future. It may take a while, however, to fully recover from the old administration's myriad of mistakes.
Prediction: 4th place.
TEXAS - Manager: Ron Washington
People associated with the Rangers probably spent all winter touting their second-place finish in the AL West in 2008, and probably failed to mention they won 79 games and finished a robust 21 games behind the Angels. After a semi-quiet offseason, the Rangers appear to have assembled one of the game's best young offenses but a starting rotation that leaves a lot to be desired.
They dealt off catcher Gerald Laird, and he'll be replaced by the high-upside tandem of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (23) and Taylor Teagarden (25), provided one isn't traded to the Red Sox midseason. Chris Davis (23) hit 17 bombs in 295 at bats in 2008, and people are excited to see how the first basemen will do over the course of a full season. Ian Kinsler (26) has established himself as a premiere offensive second baseman and just needs to put together a full season to enter the conversation as one of the game's best all-around players.
Elvis Andrus (20) will start the season at shortstop, and the defensive whiz might steal 40 bags this year. The outfield will be made up by David Murphy (27), Nelson Cruz (28), and Josh Hamilton (27), the latter of which provided one of the best stories in sports last year. When complemented by veterans Hank Blalock and Michael Young, who has moved to third, it's scary to think just how good this offense will be.
It's equally scary to think of how bad their starting pitching staff will be. I remember being so bummed when the Red Sox were outbid for the services of Kevin Millwood following the 2005 season. Since then, Millwood has not had an ERA for a season lower than 4.52, while many Red Sox hurlers making quite bit less have done much better. The deal that sent John Danks to the White Sox for Brandon McCarthy looks worse and worse every year, and McCarthy will be back after a couple of seasons filled with injury. Kris Benson is back, and can contribute if he's healthy. Again, a huge "if." I'll be interested to see if Neftali Feliz, the young former Braves prospect who was informed by Jeff Locke that he'd been traded to the Rangers, or Derek Holland can make it to Arlington at some point this year.
Ron Washington's bullpen is surprisingly decent, with the chair-throwing Frank Francisco entering the year as closer. They've got good mix with CJ Wilson and Eddie Guardado setting up. They're going to need to be pretty terrific considering how potentially awful their starting rotation will be.
The saving grace for the Rangers is that they have the game's best farm system, according to Baseball America, so they can hope either guys like Holland and Feliz can contribute to their big league club or they can cash in some other prospects to acquire some help. They might be in a position, with all the other clubs in the West being such question marks, to surprise some people. Their starting pitching is holding them back in a big way.
Prediction: 3rd place.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
2009 AL Central Preview
Yeah, so I've been putting this off for a while. Hopefully within the next week, I'll have my AL West preview and Red Sox preview in addition to this one about how the AL Central will shake out. Just to forewarn you, don't hold your breath about any of that happening.
Before I begin, let me mention one aspect of this particular discussion that will run throughout each of these five team previews: the economy figures to hit these teams, all located in America's heartland, pretty badly during the season. Whatever I say about these teams now could change drastically once the season starts and people stop showing up for games, or if slashes in season ticket numbers begin to take their effect. It's a sad reality of our times that even if a team is successful in 2009, their owners could step in and dismantle expensive teams for their own financial good.
Let's head right into it:
CHICAGO - Manager: Ozzie Guillen
I didn't expect very much from the White Sox last year, yet they were a consistent contender in the inconsistent AL Central and forced a one-game playoff for the division crown with the Minnesota Twins. After taking that game, they lost in four to the Rays and made me look like an idiot as a result. Coming off an 89-win season, I'm not really sure what to expect on the South Side for Ozzie Guillen's boys.
GM Kenny Williams didn't make a big splash this offseason, dealing off Nick Swisher for practically nothing after just one season with the White Sox. He also traded Javier Vazquez for practically nothing. And he also let free agents Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrera and Juan Uribe go, and just got the A's 2nd round pick this year out of that.
Williams and Guillen have elected to go younger, finally handing third base to Josh Fields and second base to the out-of-nowhere Chris Getz. Instead of sticking with Uribe or Cabrera, they'll go with Alexei Ramirez (who may or may not actually be 27) at short. Gavin Floyd and John Danks, both coming off excellent seasons, will be expected to shoulder much of the load behind the reliable Mark Buehrle.
Ramirez was one of the biggest surprises in baseball last year, hitting .290 with 21 homers while seeing time at second, short and outfield in his first season of American professional play. His OBP was only .317 last year, which tells me he got lucky with many of his hits. He had only 18 walks in 480 ABs, so expect a regression in his overall numbers.
I'm also very interested to see how Carlos Quentin performs in 2009. You may recall Quentin was on his way to an MVP season when, during the first week of September with his club in a heated pennant race, Quentin smacked the top of his bat in frustration and broke his wrist, missing the remainder of season. His final line of .288/.394/.571 with 36 homers was still good enough to finish 5th in the MVP balloting, and at only 26 it's very possible he could improve even further.
If only Quentin could play center. The middle of the White Sox outfield is a giant black hole, with Brian Anderson, DeWayne Wise and Jerry Owens all so embarrassingly ineffective this spring that Ozzie just can't help himself in publicly disparaging all of them. Williams doesn't want to trade for Juan Pierre (who would?) but at some point this will have to be addressed via trade if the White Sox want to go back to October.
Otherwise, this team is made up of guys who are just getting old, like the Yankees but with a bit more upside. Warhorses like Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski will be trotted out again, and they'll probably post numbers that will decline slightly from the year before. All this makes the White Sox a relatively boring team. My gut feeling is that they don't have enough pitching (looks like Bartolo Colon will be their fifth starter) and definitely not enough in their minor league system to get them through a season. Of course, my gut told me the White Sox would beat Tampa in the ALDS. So what do I know?
Prediction: 3rd place.
CLEVELAND - Manager: Eric Wedge
It's hard to put into words just how weird of a season the Indians had in 2008. I fully expected them to remain one of the three best teams in baseball after nearly going to the World Series in 2007, mostly because they changed very little. Instead, not one pitcher on their entire staff had a good year besides Cliff Lee, who just happened to be the best in the AL. Their offense and defense were both extremely mediocre, with almost everyone regressing from their 2007 performances. In the end, the Tribe were a .500 team and never could figure out what went wrong.
The club, in the midst of a bad economy deeply hurting their outlying region, went out to make some improvements without breaking the bank. GM Mark Shapiro traded three marginal prospects to bring in the versatile and reliable Mark DeRosa to man third, and signed Kerry Wood to be their closer for the next two years at $20.5 million. They were part of the mega-deal that sent J.J. Putz to the Mets, picking up talented reliever Joe Smith by sending outfielder Franklin Gutierrez to the Mariners. Admittedly, Gutierrez has a high ceiling, but with Ben Francisco's emergence and needs to address in the bullpen, Smith could pay huge dividends this year.
In the low-risk free agent market, the Indians snagged Carl Pavano at $1.5 million. While he'll always be the subject of scorn for stealing $40 million from the Yankees for nine wins, Pavano's had great stuff since being traded for Pedro Martinez and at that cost he will be worth a look.
Cleveland's 2009 lineup is full of wildcards. Travis Hafner appears to be toast, and Victor Martinez was so bad that Kelly Shoppach might be their #1 catcher in reality. Ryan Garko and Asdrubal Cabrera were hugely disappointing given some high expectations going into '08. The only bright spots were the indispensable Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta, who appears to have finally come into his own offensively (this might be the last year he appears regularly at shortstop, though). Much of the Indians' '09 success will depend on whether last year's inconsistent performers can find some consistency (and health).
As I mentioned up top, Lee enjoyed one of baseball's all-time "What the fuck?" seasons by winning an astonishing 22 games with a 2.54 ERA in 223 1/3 innings and ran away with the AL Cy Young Award. It would be even more astonishing if Lee were to have a 2009 with similar success, just one season removed from having a 6.29 ERA in less than 100 IP. He's undoubtedly their ace, and Eric Wedge will hope Fausto Carmona can somehow regain his '07 form and find that devastating 98 mph sinker. I'm also looking forward to seeing St. Louis castoff Anthony Reyes over a full season after a strong six-start stint last year with the Indians.
Some help could be on the way if the regulars struggle. Matt LaPorta, the main chip that came in the CC Sabathia trade last spring, could find his way into the Indians' outfield as a new power source for Wedge. The Tribe also stole prized catcher prospect Carlos Santana away from the Dodgers for Casey Blake at the deadline, and he could see some time with the big club, too.
It will all come down to consistency in Cleveland. If not, Shapiro will probably be a busy man during the middle months of the 2009 season.
Prediction: 2nd place.
DETROIT - Manager: Jim Leyland
No matter how disappointing the Indians were in 2008, the most disappointing of all teams last year was the Detroit Tigers. After trading for Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria, Detroit's pitching staff was beyond awful and their hyped offense never really showed up. Without any major additions over the winter, it's very possible the Tigers will just as bad and come in last place again.
Defensively, this team should be a lot better. GM Dave Dombrowski let Renteria go and replaced him with defensive whiz Adam Everett at shortstop. Brandon Inge will return to third base and the selfless Carlos Guillen moves to left field. While Pudge Rodriguez might be one of the best defensive catchers in history, he's certainly lost his touch, and trading for Gerald Laird was a terrific all-around move.
The Tigers will need the help defensively because I'll be shocked if this club improves on its 4.91 team ERA based solely on better performances by the staff. I trust that Justin Verlander's struggles for much of 2008 won't carry over into this year. Guys with his talent just don't get worse at age 27. Unfortunately for the Tigers, he's probably going to be their only above-average pitcher. Expect a regression from Armando Galarraga off his 3.73 ERA rookie season. Jeremy Bonderman is essentially a lost cause, and no one's sure if Rays acquisition Edwin Jackson will be any good this year.
The decision a couple years ago to give extensions to lefty starters Willis and Nate Robertson has proven to be awful for the organization. Robertson managed a 6.35 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP last year while Willis has lost the ability to pitch. Combined, Robertson and Willis are owed $39 million over the next two years and they can't give those guys away. It's hamstrung their ability to address serious needs in the bullpen, where it appears Brandon Lyon will close despite being terrible this spring (he gave up four straight home runs in a Grapefruit League game against Boston). Joel Zumaya might never live up to his potential, and Fernando Rodney can't find consistency. The other members of Detroit's bullpen aren't even worthy of mention here.
There are some bright spots for Detroit, despite the gloom of my post thus far. Cabrera was excellent last year, blasting 37 homers and coming into his own at first base. At 26, he should continue to develop as one of the game's best offensive players. Curtis Granderson overcame a hand injury and contributed a great all-around season and should also continue his ascent. And 20-year-old Rick Porcello, who's never pitched above Hi-A, may have won himself a rotation spot this spring. The Tigers have to be super-careful to ensure they don't screw with this kid, who's been compared to Josh Beckett since he was 15. I'd be very excited to see someone that young come up and dominate, though.
Here's the 1,000-pound gorilla in the room with the Tigers: it's possible this franchise will lose the most money of all teams potentially affected by the bad economy. It's no secret the Detroit area is in rough shape, and the Tigers have reportedly seen a drop in season ticket sales from 27,000 to 15,000 this winter. It's been hypothesized that Dombrowski will be selling off their best players should the team stumble out of the gate, and that even had Bill Simmons dreaming on a recent podcast of seeing Cabrera in a Red Sox uniform. What everyone is forgetting is that Mike Ilitch, who owns both the Tigers and Red Wings, is filthy rich. If needed, I'm sure he'll tap into his reserves to make sure the Tigers don't have to trade away their most valuable pieces. The one guy I could definitely see them moving is Magglio Ordonez, who will be owed $18 million in 2009 if he plays a full season this year.
The economy aside, the Tigers will struggle in 2009. For all their promise after going to the World Series in 2006, Dombrowski has done a poor job keeping the contender together. Jim Leyland has no contract for 2010, and if the Tigers falter, he's likely to be gone before the season ends.
Prediction: 5th place.
KANSAS CITY - Manager: Trey Hillman
For the first time ever I'll be writing more than three paragraphs about the Kansas City Royals and their upcoming season! I don't think any Royals fans read my blog, but in case they do I assume they will be happy. The Royals are being hyped as this year's Rays, and while I expect them to get out of the cellar and perhaps even finish above .500, I don't think they'll be ready to punch their tickets for October just yet.
The Royals avoided last place for the first time since 2003 based primarily on some balanced offense, decent defense, solid starting pitching by Gil Meche and Zack Greinke, and Joakim Soria developing into a premier closer (42 saves, 1.60 ERA, 66/19 K/BB in 67 IP). Trey Hillman worked to get the best performances possible out of those three pitchers, and I fully expect them to be just as effective this year.
To shore up their outfield defense, GM Dayton Moore shipped reliever Ramon Ramirez to the Red Sox for Coco Crisp. It simply never worked out in Boston for Crisp, and I hope that in getting a chance to play everyday he can return to his 2005 Indians numbers. Also new this year will be Mike Jacobs (funny considering my high school homeroom teacher and fantasy colleague is also named Mike Jacobs, and he's a huge Royals fan. Maybe he reads my blog. Hope the wife and kids are well, Mike!), who has never had a good OBP but at least provides some legit 30 homer pop. For the bullpen, Moore brought in Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz to set up in front of Soria.
I'm ready for my man-crush Alex Gordon to finally break out. He made improvements in OPS and average, meaning that at 25 years old it's just about time for Gordon to become the can't-miss superstar he was at Nebraska. Elsewhere Mike Aviles hit .325 in 419 ABs to earn himself a starting gig at shortstop this time around. One of my old fantasy favorites, Mark Teahen, has been relegated to a super utility role that's included an experiment at second base this spring producing mixed results.
I think part of the hype behind the Royals this year has to do with the strong potential of their starting rotation. Sure, Horacio Ramirez sucks but Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister and former #1 overall pick Luke Hochevar should be able to fill the the gaps. Should the Royals really be in it come June or July, they've got plenty of chips in their farm system to trade so they could add a starter.
I just like this team. They've got a good mix and with some smart personnel choices, these Royals have the right manager and GM to field a competitive team shortly. Imagine a 2010 ALCS between the Rays and Royals. Hey, it's possible.
Prediction: 4th place.
MINNESOTA - Manager: Ron Gardenhire
I just wonder how the Twins do it. They trade away the best pitcher in the world for 25 cents on the dollar and still come within one game of making the postseason, while the team to which they traded that pitcher experienced the exact same fate in 2008. Expectations were low in Minnesota after losing Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, but Ron Gardenhire's scrappy crew scratched out 88 wins and would have been a difficult match in the playoffs for any of the other three teams.
The Twins dabbled in many areas of the free agent and trade markets this past winter, but wound up adding only Joe Crede for $2.5 million. Crede's chronic back injury is well-documented, but Minnesota had nothing to lose by adding him because they would have likely gone with Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris at the hot corner if not for Crede. If it turns out Crede is fine, it could be one of the winter's better signings.
Otherwise, things are essentially the same for the Twins, and that's a good thing. A fully healthy Francisco Liriano will be their ace, and I want so badly for him to succeed and realize his potential. He will make people forget about Santana in a hurry. Scott Baker finally broke out in 2008, and along with Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, the Twins have one of the AL's most unheralded but surprisingly solid rotations. All of those guys are homegrown besides Liriano, who came over in a trade as a prospect. That's just how the Twins do things. Joe Nathan remains one guy I'd hate to face if my team was down in the 9th inning and Jesse Crain is almost as intimidating.
Minnesota sports two of the game's brightest stars, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Mauer continues to put up historic offense numbers for a catcher, winning his second batting title last year while managing an ever-changing cast of characters in the pitching staff. Mauer's back flared up this spring, and he could miss all of April as a result. Regardless, I'm excited for when the Red Sox sign him after the 2010 season. As for Morneau, he also had another MVP-caliber year in 2008, and the quiet star will continue to be an awesome presence for the Twins.
The most interesting situation for this team lies in the vast outfield expanse of the Metrodome. Mike Cuddyer is firmly entrenched in right field, with the defense and speed of Carlos Gomez and Denard Span nailing down starting spots in center and left, respectively. With Jason Kubel expected to be the full-time DH following a wonderful 2008, that leaves out one person: Delmon Young, the same guy I said might one day find his way to Cooperstown. Young just hasn't performed up to his abilities thus far in the Majors, and it doesn't appear the Twins have much use for him. He's responded with a good spring, and it might be tough for Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup. Either way, he'd make excellent trade bait should the Twins need an extra piece during the season.
Maybe the Twins will struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness through May. But they'll fight, they'll scratch, they'll claw...and make it into October once again in 2009. They just always find a way.
Prediction: 1st place.
Before I begin, let me mention one aspect of this particular discussion that will run throughout each of these five team previews: the economy figures to hit these teams, all located in America's heartland, pretty badly during the season. Whatever I say about these teams now could change drastically once the season starts and people stop showing up for games, or if slashes in season ticket numbers begin to take their effect. It's a sad reality of our times that even if a team is successful in 2009, their owners could step in and dismantle expensive teams for their own financial good.
Let's head right into it:
CHICAGO - Manager: Ozzie Guillen
I didn't expect very much from the White Sox last year, yet they were a consistent contender in the inconsistent AL Central and forced a one-game playoff for the division crown with the Minnesota Twins. After taking that game, they lost in four to the Rays and made me look like an idiot as a result. Coming off an 89-win season, I'm not really sure what to expect on the South Side for Ozzie Guillen's boys.
GM Kenny Williams didn't make a big splash this offseason, dealing off Nick Swisher for practically nothing after just one season with the White Sox. He also traded Javier Vazquez for practically nothing. And he also let free agents Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrera and Juan Uribe go, and just got the A's 2nd round pick this year out of that.
Williams and Guillen have elected to go younger, finally handing third base to Josh Fields and second base to the out-of-nowhere Chris Getz. Instead of sticking with Uribe or Cabrera, they'll go with Alexei Ramirez (who may or may not actually be 27) at short. Gavin Floyd and John Danks, both coming off excellent seasons, will be expected to shoulder much of the load behind the reliable Mark Buehrle.
Ramirez was one of the biggest surprises in baseball last year, hitting .290 with 21 homers while seeing time at second, short and outfield in his first season of American professional play. His OBP was only .317 last year, which tells me he got lucky with many of his hits. He had only 18 walks in 480 ABs, so expect a regression in his overall numbers.
I'm also very interested to see how Carlos Quentin performs in 2009. You may recall Quentin was on his way to an MVP season when, during the first week of September with his club in a heated pennant race, Quentin smacked the top of his bat in frustration and broke his wrist, missing the remainder of season. His final line of .288/.394/.571 with 36 homers was still good enough to finish 5th in the MVP balloting, and at only 26 it's very possible he could improve even further.
If only Quentin could play center. The middle of the White Sox outfield is a giant black hole, with Brian Anderson, DeWayne Wise and Jerry Owens all so embarrassingly ineffective this spring that Ozzie just can't help himself in publicly disparaging all of them. Williams doesn't want to trade for Juan Pierre (who would?) but at some point this will have to be addressed via trade if the White Sox want to go back to October.
Otherwise, this team is made up of guys who are just getting old, like the Yankees but with a bit more upside. Warhorses like Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski will be trotted out again, and they'll probably post numbers that will decline slightly from the year before. All this makes the White Sox a relatively boring team. My gut feeling is that they don't have enough pitching (looks like Bartolo Colon will be their fifth starter) and definitely not enough in their minor league system to get them through a season. Of course, my gut told me the White Sox would beat Tampa in the ALDS. So what do I know?
Prediction: 3rd place.
CLEVELAND - Manager: Eric Wedge
It's hard to put into words just how weird of a season the Indians had in 2008. I fully expected them to remain one of the three best teams in baseball after nearly going to the World Series in 2007, mostly because they changed very little. Instead, not one pitcher on their entire staff had a good year besides Cliff Lee, who just happened to be the best in the AL. Their offense and defense were both extremely mediocre, with almost everyone regressing from their 2007 performances. In the end, the Tribe were a .500 team and never could figure out what went wrong.
The club, in the midst of a bad economy deeply hurting their outlying region, went out to make some improvements without breaking the bank. GM Mark Shapiro traded three marginal prospects to bring in the versatile and reliable Mark DeRosa to man third, and signed Kerry Wood to be their closer for the next two years at $20.5 million. They were part of the mega-deal that sent J.J. Putz to the Mets, picking up talented reliever Joe Smith by sending outfielder Franklin Gutierrez to the Mariners. Admittedly, Gutierrez has a high ceiling, but with Ben Francisco's emergence and needs to address in the bullpen, Smith could pay huge dividends this year.
In the low-risk free agent market, the Indians snagged Carl Pavano at $1.5 million. While he'll always be the subject of scorn for stealing $40 million from the Yankees for nine wins, Pavano's had great stuff since being traded for Pedro Martinez and at that cost he will be worth a look.
Cleveland's 2009 lineup is full of wildcards. Travis Hafner appears to be toast, and Victor Martinez was so bad that Kelly Shoppach might be their #1 catcher in reality. Ryan Garko and Asdrubal Cabrera were hugely disappointing given some high expectations going into '08. The only bright spots were the indispensable Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta, who appears to have finally come into his own offensively (this might be the last year he appears regularly at shortstop, though). Much of the Indians' '09 success will depend on whether last year's inconsistent performers can find some consistency (and health).
As I mentioned up top, Lee enjoyed one of baseball's all-time "What the fuck?" seasons by winning an astonishing 22 games with a 2.54 ERA in 223 1/3 innings and ran away with the AL Cy Young Award. It would be even more astonishing if Lee were to have a 2009 with similar success, just one season removed from having a 6.29 ERA in less than 100 IP. He's undoubtedly their ace, and Eric Wedge will hope Fausto Carmona can somehow regain his '07 form and find that devastating 98 mph sinker. I'm also looking forward to seeing St. Louis castoff Anthony Reyes over a full season after a strong six-start stint last year with the Indians.
Some help could be on the way if the regulars struggle. Matt LaPorta, the main chip that came in the CC Sabathia trade last spring, could find his way into the Indians' outfield as a new power source for Wedge. The Tribe also stole prized catcher prospect Carlos Santana away from the Dodgers for Casey Blake at the deadline, and he could see some time with the big club, too.
It will all come down to consistency in Cleveland. If not, Shapiro will probably be a busy man during the middle months of the 2009 season.
Prediction: 2nd place.
DETROIT - Manager: Jim Leyland
No matter how disappointing the Indians were in 2008, the most disappointing of all teams last year was the Detroit Tigers. After trading for Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria, Detroit's pitching staff was beyond awful and their hyped offense never really showed up. Without any major additions over the winter, it's very possible the Tigers will just as bad and come in last place again.
Defensively, this team should be a lot better. GM Dave Dombrowski let Renteria go and replaced him with defensive whiz Adam Everett at shortstop. Brandon Inge will return to third base and the selfless Carlos Guillen moves to left field. While Pudge Rodriguez might be one of the best defensive catchers in history, he's certainly lost his touch, and trading for Gerald Laird was a terrific all-around move.
The Tigers will need the help defensively because I'll be shocked if this club improves on its 4.91 team ERA based solely on better performances by the staff. I trust that Justin Verlander's struggles for much of 2008 won't carry over into this year. Guys with his talent just don't get worse at age 27. Unfortunately for the Tigers, he's probably going to be their only above-average pitcher. Expect a regression from Armando Galarraga off his 3.73 ERA rookie season. Jeremy Bonderman is essentially a lost cause, and no one's sure if Rays acquisition Edwin Jackson will be any good this year.
The decision a couple years ago to give extensions to lefty starters Willis and Nate Robertson has proven to be awful for the organization. Robertson managed a 6.35 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP last year while Willis has lost the ability to pitch. Combined, Robertson and Willis are owed $39 million over the next two years and they can't give those guys away. It's hamstrung their ability to address serious needs in the bullpen, where it appears Brandon Lyon will close despite being terrible this spring (he gave up four straight home runs in a Grapefruit League game against Boston). Joel Zumaya might never live up to his potential, and Fernando Rodney can't find consistency. The other members of Detroit's bullpen aren't even worthy of mention here.
There are some bright spots for Detroit, despite the gloom of my post thus far. Cabrera was excellent last year, blasting 37 homers and coming into his own at first base. At 26, he should continue to develop as one of the game's best offensive players. Curtis Granderson overcame a hand injury and contributed a great all-around season and should also continue his ascent. And 20-year-old Rick Porcello, who's never pitched above Hi-A, may have won himself a rotation spot this spring. The Tigers have to be super-careful to ensure they don't screw with this kid, who's been compared to Josh Beckett since he was 15. I'd be very excited to see someone that young come up and dominate, though.
Here's the 1,000-pound gorilla in the room with the Tigers: it's possible this franchise will lose the most money of all teams potentially affected by the bad economy. It's no secret the Detroit area is in rough shape, and the Tigers have reportedly seen a drop in season ticket sales from 27,000 to 15,000 this winter. It's been hypothesized that Dombrowski will be selling off their best players should the team stumble out of the gate, and that even had Bill Simmons dreaming on a recent podcast of seeing Cabrera in a Red Sox uniform. What everyone is forgetting is that Mike Ilitch, who owns both the Tigers and Red Wings, is filthy rich. If needed, I'm sure he'll tap into his reserves to make sure the Tigers don't have to trade away their most valuable pieces. The one guy I could definitely see them moving is Magglio Ordonez, who will be owed $18 million in 2009 if he plays a full season this year.
The economy aside, the Tigers will struggle in 2009. For all their promise after going to the World Series in 2006, Dombrowski has done a poor job keeping the contender together. Jim Leyland has no contract for 2010, and if the Tigers falter, he's likely to be gone before the season ends.
Prediction: 5th place.
KANSAS CITY - Manager: Trey Hillman
For the first time ever I'll be writing more than three paragraphs about the Kansas City Royals and their upcoming season! I don't think any Royals fans read my blog, but in case they do I assume they will be happy. The Royals are being hyped as this year's Rays, and while I expect them to get out of the cellar and perhaps even finish above .500, I don't think they'll be ready to punch their tickets for October just yet.
The Royals avoided last place for the first time since 2003 based primarily on some balanced offense, decent defense, solid starting pitching by Gil Meche and Zack Greinke, and Joakim Soria developing into a premier closer (42 saves, 1.60 ERA, 66/19 K/BB in 67 IP). Trey Hillman worked to get the best performances possible out of those three pitchers, and I fully expect them to be just as effective this year.
To shore up their outfield defense, GM Dayton Moore shipped reliever Ramon Ramirez to the Red Sox for Coco Crisp. It simply never worked out in Boston for Crisp, and I hope that in getting a chance to play everyday he can return to his 2005 Indians numbers. Also new this year will be Mike Jacobs (funny considering my high school homeroom teacher and fantasy colleague is also named Mike Jacobs, and he's a huge Royals fan. Maybe he reads my blog. Hope the wife and kids are well, Mike!), who has never had a good OBP but at least provides some legit 30 homer pop. For the bullpen, Moore brought in Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz to set up in front of Soria.
I'm ready for my man-crush Alex Gordon to finally break out. He made improvements in OPS and average, meaning that at 25 years old it's just about time for Gordon to become the can't-miss superstar he was at Nebraska. Elsewhere Mike Aviles hit .325 in 419 ABs to earn himself a starting gig at shortstop this time around. One of my old fantasy favorites, Mark Teahen, has been relegated to a super utility role that's included an experiment at second base this spring producing mixed results.
I think part of the hype behind the Royals this year has to do with the strong potential of their starting rotation. Sure, Horacio Ramirez sucks but Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister and former #1 overall pick Luke Hochevar should be able to fill the the gaps. Should the Royals really be in it come June or July, they've got plenty of chips in their farm system to trade so they could add a starter.
I just like this team. They've got a good mix and with some smart personnel choices, these Royals have the right manager and GM to field a competitive team shortly. Imagine a 2010 ALCS between the Rays and Royals. Hey, it's possible.
Prediction: 4th place.
MINNESOTA - Manager: Ron Gardenhire
I just wonder how the Twins do it. They trade away the best pitcher in the world for 25 cents on the dollar and still come within one game of making the postseason, while the team to which they traded that pitcher experienced the exact same fate in 2008. Expectations were low in Minnesota after losing Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, but Ron Gardenhire's scrappy crew scratched out 88 wins and would have been a difficult match in the playoffs for any of the other three teams.
The Twins dabbled in many areas of the free agent and trade markets this past winter, but wound up adding only Joe Crede for $2.5 million. Crede's chronic back injury is well-documented, but Minnesota had nothing to lose by adding him because they would have likely gone with Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris at the hot corner if not for Crede. If it turns out Crede is fine, it could be one of the winter's better signings.
Otherwise, things are essentially the same for the Twins, and that's a good thing. A fully healthy Francisco Liriano will be their ace, and I want so badly for him to succeed and realize his potential. He will make people forget about Santana in a hurry. Scott Baker finally broke out in 2008, and along with Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, the Twins have one of the AL's most unheralded but surprisingly solid rotations. All of those guys are homegrown besides Liriano, who came over in a trade as a prospect. That's just how the Twins do things. Joe Nathan remains one guy I'd hate to face if my team was down in the 9th inning and Jesse Crain is almost as intimidating.
Minnesota sports two of the game's brightest stars, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Mauer continues to put up historic offense numbers for a catcher, winning his second batting title last year while managing an ever-changing cast of characters in the pitching staff. Mauer's back flared up this spring, and he could miss all of April as a result. Regardless, I'm excited for when the Red Sox sign him after the 2010 season. As for Morneau, he also had another MVP-caliber year in 2008, and the quiet star will continue to be an awesome presence for the Twins.
The most interesting situation for this team lies in the vast outfield expanse of the Metrodome. Mike Cuddyer is firmly entrenched in right field, with the defense and speed of Carlos Gomez and Denard Span nailing down starting spots in center and left, respectively. With Jason Kubel expected to be the full-time DH following a wonderful 2008, that leaves out one person: Delmon Young, the same guy I said might one day find his way to Cooperstown. Young just hasn't performed up to his abilities thus far in the Majors, and it doesn't appear the Twins have much use for him. He's responded with a good spring, and it might be tough for Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup. Either way, he'd make excellent trade bait should the Twins need an extra piece during the season.
Maybe the Twins will struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness through May. But they'll fight, they'll scratch, they'll claw...and make it into October once again in 2009. They just always find a way.
Prediction: 1st place.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
2009 AL East Preview
I've been putting this off for too long, so let's hop into my annual AL preview series. I will begin, as always, with the AL East, save the Red Sox, whom I'll wait to preview until the end of March.
BALTIMORE - Manager: Dave Tremblay
In Dave Tremblay's first full season at the helm in Baltimore, the O's finished with the exact same number of losses (93) they had earned in 2008. The rebuilding moves made by new team president Andy MacPhail promised an 11th-straight losing season for the once-proud franchise. I lauded all of MacPhail's choices last winter, but like many teams, the O's had a pretty quiet offseason this time around and I highly doubt Baltimore will make it out of the cellar in '09.
They landed 33-year-old Japanese hurler Koji Uehara on a two-year pact, and given the makeup of their current staff, he could become their ace. In separate deals, the Orioles took two out-of-options former prospects off the hands of the Chicago Cubs in Rich Hill and Felix Pie. They also brought in utility men Ty Wigginton and Ryan Freel, and signed their two best players, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts, to long-term extensions.
Signing Pie will allow Tremblay to use righty-mashing Luke Scott at DH and sport one of the game's fastest outfields with Pie, Markakis and up-and-comer Adam Jones (and they don't lose much if Freel is healthy). With such a mediocre pitching staff, this outfield should help cut down on hits and runs and may result in a couple more wins.
Freel came from the Reds in a move that saw catcher Ramon Hernandez relocate to Cincinnati. This helps Baltimore on two fronts: it saves them significant money, and hastens the rise of top 2007 draft choice Matt Wieters. In his first minor league season, Wieters posted a 1.054 OPS with 27 dingers between Hi-A and AA. Scouts have been going ga-ga over Wieters for years now, and it looks like he'll get his shot at some point this spring. Wieters probably won't see the majors until late May in an effort to delay his arbitration clock. Until then, free agent signee Gregg Zaun will be behind the plate, and then will likely serve as Wieters' mentor thereafter. Just like everyone else, I'm excited to see what Wieters can accomplish at the Major League level.
But otherwise, O's fans have little to look forward to. When your ace, Jeremy Guthrie, only wins 10 games in '08, and your closer, George Sherrill, can only muster a season ERA of 4.73, that tells you all you need to know about the quality of the pitching staff. Look for MacPhail to unload the contracts of Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora during the season. The bad economy will probably whack the Orioles pretty severely, but they have nowhere to go but up. Well, at least not this year.
PREDICTION: 5th place.
NEW YORK - Manager: Joe Girardi
So what was the Yankees' reaction to missing the playoffs for the first time in almost 15 years? Just spend almost a half billion dollars on free agents when every other MLB team is wondering where the hell their money went. With a new stadium opening in the Bronx, the Bombers made a huge splash to try and get back into the postseason once again. My reaction? Meh.
No doubt bringing in Mark Teixeira was an excellent move, easily the best personnel decision made by the Yankees' front office in a half dozen years. In Tex they get an easy-going superstar who will anchor first base for them for the next eight years. For CC Sabathia, the Yankees only outbid their nearest competitors by about $50 million and Sabathia would have been an idiot to turn it down. How he handles the spotlight and the level of expectations for being the highest-paid pitcher ever will determine his success. Oh, and that whole thing about him being a stunt-double for the Goodyear Blimp.
And A.J. Burnett? Well, it has potential to be the worst of all the Yankees' bad pitcher contracts over the years. Brad Penny is a far superior pitcher, in my opinion, and the Red Sox got him for $77 million less. I'm positive Penny will have a better year. Hell, I think Phil Hughes will have a better year, and be better over the course of Burnett's contract, wherever Hughes may pitch.
Before having Teixeira fall into their lap, the Yankees had traded peanuts to get Nick Swisher from the White Sox to play first base. (Don't ever try to tell me that wasn't the original plan. With all the outfielders they already had, and with Giambi gone, they would never have traded for Swisher if they thought they would get Teixeira. Don't tell me otherwise, because it's a lie). Andy Pettitte also returns for another go-round with Mike Mussina retiring and Chein-Ming Wang returning from his 2008 foot injury.
How anyone can say this Yankees' team will leapfrog Boston and Tampa to reclaim the division is preposterous. They might be the worst defensive team in baseball when this season is complete. Teixeira is the team's only above-average defender anywhere on the field. The Yankees might be completely screwed with Jorge Posada coming off major shoulder surgery, and if they find out in mid-March he can no longer catch, it will make the Yankee clusterfuck of DHs even wider. Derek Jeter has no business playing shortstop everyday in the Major Leagues anymore, but no one would ever tell him that. Johnny Damon can't play center anymore, Hideki Matsui can't play the field period, and Swisher, Melky Cabrera and Xavier Nady aren't anything special either. They may be forced to start Brett Gardner on occasion in center just to give the pitchers some kind of help.
I also love how everyone expects Joba Chamberlain to all the sudden step up and be an ace pitcher. Look, the guy's got amazing stuff. But for Joe Girardi to say the guy will make 30 starts this year is ludicrous. He has still never thrown more than 119 innings in one season since high school, so why would anyone think he's suddenly going to find good health now? And what about their bullpen? If Mariano Rivera goes down, who closes? Damaso Marte? Edwar Ramirez? Yikes. Then do they jerk Chamberlain back to the bullpen? Who knows.
All I'm saying is that the Yankees are far, FAR from a sure thing this time around. The pressure and expectations have never been higher as they move into New Yankee Stadium. But the Yankees have never learned, and it doesn't appear they every will learn, that teams have to be built and not bought. If they don't get back to the playoffs, Girardi's second season in New York could also be his last.
PREDICTION: 3rd place.
TAMPA BAY - Manager: Joe Maddon
In my preview last year, I wrote that I believed "the Rays will be a fun team to watch in 2008 and may surprise some people" while still picking them to come in 4th place. Well, I was right that they were fun team and that they'd surprise some people, but their rise to the AL East division crown and eventually the World Series was something I never could have predicted would come this fast. As defending AL Champs, the Rays have a target on their backs and the hangover from such a successful year has typically not been kind to teams of their ilk recently.
The Rays bring back essentially the same team in 2009 with a couple notable exceptions. Their biggest move was signing free agent slugger Pat Burrell to a modest two-year deal. He will serve as their primary DH and provide pop behind Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton. The Rays also dealt Edwin Jackson for outfielder Matt Joyce to shore up right field, and signed some relief help in Brian Shouse, Joe Nelson and Jason Isringhausen.
The young starting rotation for Tampa remains potentially either its greatest strength or biggest question mark. James Shields (the grandpa of the group at age 27) remains their most solid, dependable contributor no matter how undeserved the nickname "Big Game James" might still be. Former #1 overall pick David Price should be penciled in as their #5 starter, and could very well be their #1 starter when it's all said and done. In between those two will be the electric Scott Kazmir, the explosive Matt Garza, and the dependable Andy Sonnanstine. I feel like perhaps the Rays caught lightning in a bottle last year with how well all their young starters performed. It might be too much to ask to have so many young guys perform at that level once again. I would also assume Dan Wheeler will close if Troy Percival is hurt, but the Rays do have other quality options in J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.
Tampa will continue to have one of the most dynamic offenses in the game. They are well-balanced with speedsters Akinori "Evil-mura" Iwamura and Carl Crawford atop the order, mashers Upton, Pena, Longoria and Burrell and solid contributors Joyce, Dioner Navarro, and 2008 team MVP Jason Bartlett rounding it out. They can literally do it all. Also, this team has no discernible weakness on defense, which helped propel them deep into last year's postseason.
What's even scarier about the Rays is what they have on the way. They got to the World Series the same year they made high school shortstop phenom Tim Beckham the #1 overall pick in the draft, and they have fireballers Jake McGee and Wade Davis banging on the doors of the Trop. The depth of their talent means this franchise is definitely here to stay.
Given the bad blood existing between the Red Sox and Rays (even though two principles, Coco Crisp and Jonny Gomes, are gone from the picture), and the intensity of last year's ALCS, I very much look forward to what 2009 will bring to their new rivalry. I'll be in attendance on my birthday when they play the second game of a three-game set to open Fenway Park. I also look forward to many years of great games between these two franchises. I have a feeling 2008 will not be the last time Boston and Tampa meet for the right to play in the World Series.
Like I mentioned above, however, I think the Red Sox will be better in 2009 as the young Rays deal with their success.
PREDICTION: 2nd place.
TORONTO - Manager: Cito Gaston
Because I hate the Blue Jays, and don't expect them to be any good this year, I'll keep this brief. The Jays did just about nothing in the offseason in improve themselves. They ought to trade Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells to rid themselves of payroll, but J.P Riccardi's head is so far up his own ass there's no way that will happen. I think Travis Snider will be a great power hitter, and should get a chance to grow at the Major League level. Otherwise, the high point of the Jays' season this year will probably come whenever they take the season series from the Red Sox, which they will inevitably do.
PREDICTION: 4th place.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
A Closer Look: My First Draft of 2009, Rounds 11-21
Sorry for the delay with this post but you know how it is during the week. I also appear to have completely spaced on my annual AL preview, maybe I'll get to it tomorrow if I have the motivation. Anyway, we left off last time after I'd snatched up what I believe to have been my best value pick, Hunter Pence, in the 10th round. With my offense mostly complete, I now needed to look into finding some value for my pitching staff.
Round 11
121. Ryan Dempster
122. Jonathan Broxton
123. Andre Ethier
124. Zack Greinke
125. B.J. Ryan
126. Matt Capps
127. Matt Cain
128. Brian Fuentes
129. Justin Verlander
130. Francisco Cordero
131. David Price
132. Kerry Wood
I began my own little run on closers here in this round. Broxton is locked into closer's role in L.A. and while he's certainly had his control issues, I love the fact that Rotoworld has him getting 91 Ks in 75 innings this year with a solid 31 saves. Of course, saves are a very volatile category and someone like Broxton could earn much more or much fewer saves than that regardless of what he does in the ratios. Anyway, he'll be closing for a good team and I can't complain if he lives up to his potential.
Round 12
133. Brad Hawpe
134. Adam Wainwright
135. Jorge Cantu
136. Rick Nolasco
137. Huston Street
138. Heath Bell
139. Mike Lowell
140. Frank Francisco
141. Raul Ibanez
142. Matt Garza
143. Chris Iannetta
144. Aubrey Huff
I was pretty pissed to see Garza go off the board just before my pick. I've been taking him in all my mock drafts because I think he's being undervalued. He's a strikeout pitcher playing on an excellent team and he appears to have moved past his Minnesota growing pains. Anyway, with this pick my starting offense is now complete. I sometimes like taking a catcher early, usually Martin or Mauer, but I elected to wait this time. Iannetta should get most of the playing time in Colorado and given the thin air he could drop over 20 bombs. This should be the last year Iannetta will be drafted outside the first 10 rounds. I certainly think he's a safer 2009 bet than Matt Wieters at this point.
Round 13
145. Milton Bradley
146. Trevor Hoffman
147. Jayson Werth
148. Conor Jackson
149. Mike Gonzalez
150. Brian Wilson
151. Torii Hunter
152. Carlos Delgado
153. Chris Young
154. Derek Lowe
155. Jorge Posada
156. Brandon Morrow
OK, I definitely don't love this pick. The all-time saves king isn't even close to what he used to be, and the Brewers will have to limit his innings throughout the year. But with almost every other #2 closer option off the board, Hoffman was actually the safest of them all. If you look at the other closers taken in this round, Gonzalez has had health issues and Wilson had a HUGE ERA last year. I'm also not sure if Morrow will start or close for the M's. Either way, Hoffman made the most sense for my purposes here. At this point I'm starting to get a little worried because I've only got two starting pitchers on my roster 13 rounds in. I've got my work cut out for me going forward.
Round 14
157. Patt Burrell
158. Brett Myers
159. Johnny Cueto
160. Aaron Harang
161. Chad Qualls
162. Adrian Beltre
163. Erik Bedard
164. Ben Sheets
165. George Sherrill
166. Ted Lilly
167. John Danks
168. Xavier Nady
I'd probably have taken Lilly if he didn't go right in front of me. There's been some mixed opinions on Danks this winter, but Rotoworld thinks enough of him to rank him 27th overall for starting pitchers. He's always had great stuff, and didn't get hurt last year, so I have every expectation he'll maintain his standing as the ChiSox's #2 hurler. And because I've waited so long at this point to draft starting pitching, I really can't complain about snagging Danks at this spot.
Round 15
169. Brad Ziegler
170. Matt Lindstrom
171. Shin-Soo Choo
172. Chien-Ming Wang
173. Nelson Cruz
174. Joey Devine
175. Justin Upton
176. Max Scherzer
177. Joel Hanrahan
178. Gavin Floyd
179. Josh Johnson
180. Jered Weaver
Matt Lindstrom is no Jonathan Papelbon. But he's got no other competition for saves in Florida, so I can hope has an efficient year at the very least. I've now managed to complete my bullpen. I never draft more than three closers for a team just because I believe in maintaining advantages in wins and K's are much easier to control than ratios.
Round 16
181. Jair Jurrens
182. Fernando Rodney
183. Mark DeRosa
184. Troy Percival
185. A.J. Pierzynski
186. Clayton Kershaw
187. Cameron Maybin
188. John Maine
189. Placido Polanco
190. Kevin Slowey
191. Scott Baker
192. Troy Glaus
I don't remember which year it was, it may have been 2006, when I thought Scott Baker was the sleeper of the year. I drafted him on every team and expected huge things. Well, he sucked. And he sucked all the time until last year, when he finally hit some of his potential. He won't run up huge numbers, but he's definitely a strong #4 starter for a mixed league fantasy squad. I've now rounded out my entire starting team. I'll begin now to look for some bargains for my bench.
Round 17
193. Mike Pelfrey
194. Alex Gordon
195. Randy Winn
196. Hideki Matsui
197. Edwin Encarnacion
198. Justin Duchscherer
199. Randy Johnson
200. Carlos Guillen
201. Lastings Milledge
202. Chris B. Young
203. Miguel Tejada
204. Fausto Carmona
I've had an unhealthy man-crush on Gordon since his days at Nebraska. He hasn't lived up to his young superstar billing just yet, but maybe at 25 this will be the year. If he does finally break out, he's a contributor in every category. Plus, he's a great guy for much bench considering Chipper Jones' penchant for getting hurt. I feel extremely confident in my corner infield situation given the apprehensive nature of both my Jones and Youkilis selections.
Round 18
205. Ryan Theroit
206. James Loney
207. Dioner Navarro
208. Kelly Johnson
209. Chris Carpenter
210. Adam Jones
211. Jim Thome
212. Travis Hafner
213. Joe Saunders
214. Adam LaRoche
215. Mark Buehrle
216. Mike Napoli
Buehrle doesn't give you a ton in fantasy. However, at this spot in the draft I think he's a solid option. He won't strike out many people, but he goes deep into games, gets a lot of decisions, and as long as his ratios don't inflate too much, I don't mind grabbing him here. The purpose of these later rounds as far as starting pitchers go is to either draft for upside or draft for solid contributors. Buehrle, who's thrown at least 200 innings each of the last eight seasons, qualifies as the latter. Also, note the selection of Adam Jones at pick #210. I'll be discussing that shortly.
Round 19
217. Oliver Perez
218. Rickie Weeks
219. David DeJesus
220. Melvin Mora
221. Chris Perez
222. Elvis Andrus
223. Alexi Casilla
224. Jeff Francoeur
225. Denard Span
226. Tim Hudson
227. Rick Ankiel
228. Willy Taveras
Weeks has spent a lot of time on the DL over the last few years. Otherwise, I'd like to think he could be a top-5 fantasy second baseman. He gives me steals off the bench and he's got some pop in his bat, too. Should something happen to Phillips, I'd feel confident running Weeks out there for and extended period. I have to hope he's put his injury woes behind him for now. I'd been taking Andrus frequently as my backup MI, but Weeks is a better player now and I'm less worried about SS (Hanley) than I am about 2B (Phillips).
Round 20
229. Jose Guillen
230. Kazuo Matsui
231. Ryan Garko
232. Khalil Greene
233. Armando Galarraga
234. Gil Meche
235. Juan Pierre
236. Hank Blalock
237. Yadier Molina
238. Taylor Teagarden
239. J.D. Drew
240. Akinori Iwamura
I'm well aware of how Drew tends to hit the DL from time to time. Well aware. But I needed an outfielder, and when he is healthy and locked in, look out. This is where that earlier Adam Jones pick comes in. The owner who drafted Jones inexplicably decided to dump him as soon as add/drops were available. I'd taken Jones as early as 17th round in one of my mocks, so I decided to throw in a waiver claim to add Jones and drop Drew. I won't know the outcome until tomorrow. Jones has miles of upside and will likely be a 20/20 guy as soon as this year. That's a pick I like more than Drew. But if I get stuck with J.D. I'll be fine. If he gets hurt there's plenty of other outfielders.
Round 21
241. Grant Balfour
242. Ubaldo Jimenez
243. Chris Volstad
244. Phil Hughes
245. Gary Sheffield
246. John Smoltz
247. Jeff Clement
248. Aaron Hill
249. Nick Swisher
250. Kevin Gregg
251. Elijah Dukes
252. Mike Cameron
If Buehrle represented a safe late-round pick, taking Jimenez here was the risky pick with upside. I don't know exactly what to expect considering he's young, wild, and pitches in Colorado, but strikes guys out left and right and if he sucks I'll just get someone else. As my last pick, it's not like I'm really attached to him. With that, my team is complete. Take a look (with Rotoworld projections and round taken in parentheses):
Overall I'm really pleased with this team. Often times, my decision to overlook pitching early hurts me in the ratio categories, and I expect this year will probably be no different. However, I really, really like my balanced offense and I don't see how I'm lower than 3rd in the league in all five categories. Every player on my team has at least 20 homer power. My top two starters should improve from last year. My closers are solid and provide value based on where I took them. I expect my forumla to lead to another championship.
I hope you enjoyed this. No, really, I do. Later.
Round 11
121. Ryan Dempster
122. Jonathan Broxton
123. Andre Ethier
124. Zack Greinke
125. B.J. Ryan
126. Matt Capps
127. Matt Cain
128. Brian Fuentes
129. Justin Verlander
130. Francisco Cordero
131. David Price
132. Kerry Wood
I began my own little run on closers here in this round. Broxton is locked into closer's role in L.A. and while he's certainly had his control issues, I love the fact that Rotoworld has him getting 91 Ks in 75 innings this year with a solid 31 saves. Of course, saves are a very volatile category and someone like Broxton could earn much more or much fewer saves than that regardless of what he does in the ratios. Anyway, he'll be closing for a good team and I can't complain if he lives up to his potential.
Round 12
133. Brad Hawpe
134. Adam Wainwright
135. Jorge Cantu
136. Rick Nolasco
137. Huston Street
138. Heath Bell
139. Mike Lowell
140. Frank Francisco
141. Raul Ibanez
142. Matt Garza
143. Chris Iannetta
144. Aubrey Huff
I was pretty pissed to see Garza go off the board just before my pick. I've been taking him in all my mock drafts because I think he's being undervalued. He's a strikeout pitcher playing on an excellent team and he appears to have moved past his Minnesota growing pains. Anyway, with this pick my starting offense is now complete. I sometimes like taking a catcher early, usually Martin or Mauer, but I elected to wait this time. Iannetta should get most of the playing time in Colorado and given the thin air he could drop over 20 bombs. This should be the last year Iannetta will be drafted outside the first 10 rounds. I certainly think he's a safer 2009 bet than Matt Wieters at this point.
Round 13
145. Milton Bradley
146. Trevor Hoffman
147. Jayson Werth
148. Conor Jackson
149. Mike Gonzalez
150. Brian Wilson
151. Torii Hunter
152. Carlos Delgado
153. Chris Young
154. Derek Lowe
155. Jorge Posada
156. Brandon Morrow
OK, I definitely don't love this pick. The all-time saves king isn't even close to what he used to be, and the Brewers will have to limit his innings throughout the year. But with almost every other #2 closer option off the board, Hoffman was actually the safest of them all. If you look at the other closers taken in this round, Gonzalez has had health issues and Wilson had a HUGE ERA last year. I'm also not sure if Morrow will start or close for the M's. Either way, Hoffman made the most sense for my purposes here. At this point I'm starting to get a little worried because I've only got two starting pitchers on my roster 13 rounds in. I've got my work cut out for me going forward.
Round 14
157. Patt Burrell
158. Brett Myers
159. Johnny Cueto
160. Aaron Harang
161. Chad Qualls
162. Adrian Beltre
163. Erik Bedard
164. Ben Sheets
165. George Sherrill
166. Ted Lilly
167. John Danks
168. Xavier Nady
I'd probably have taken Lilly if he didn't go right in front of me. There's been some mixed opinions on Danks this winter, but Rotoworld thinks enough of him to rank him 27th overall for starting pitchers. He's always had great stuff, and didn't get hurt last year, so I have every expectation he'll maintain his standing as the ChiSox's #2 hurler. And because I've waited so long at this point to draft starting pitching, I really can't complain about snagging Danks at this spot.
Round 15
169. Brad Ziegler
170. Matt Lindstrom
171. Shin-Soo Choo
172. Chien-Ming Wang
173. Nelson Cruz
174. Joey Devine
175. Justin Upton
176. Max Scherzer
177. Joel Hanrahan
178. Gavin Floyd
179. Josh Johnson
180. Jered Weaver
Matt Lindstrom is no Jonathan Papelbon. But he's got no other competition for saves in Florida, so I can hope has an efficient year at the very least. I've now managed to complete my bullpen. I never draft more than three closers for a team just because I believe in maintaining advantages in wins and K's are much easier to control than ratios.
Round 16
181. Jair Jurrens
182. Fernando Rodney
183. Mark DeRosa
184. Troy Percival
185. A.J. Pierzynski
186. Clayton Kershaw
187. Cameron Maybin
188. John Maine
189. Placido Polanco
190. Kevin Slowey
191. Scott Baker
192. Troy Glaus
I don't remember which year it was, it may have been 2006, when I thought Scott Baker was the sleeper of the year. I drafted him on every team and expected huge things. Well, he sucked. And he sucked all the time until last year, when he finally hit some of his potential. He won't run up huge numbers, but he's definitely a strong #4 starter for a mixed league fantasy squad. I've now rounded out my entire starting team. I'll begin now to look for some bargains for my bench.
Round 17
193. Mike Pelfrey
194. Alex Gordon
195. Randy Winn
196. Hideki Matsui
197. Edwin Encarnacion
198. Justin Duchscherer
199. Randy Johnson
200. Carlos Guillen
201. Lastings Milledge
202. Chris B. Young
203. Miguel Tejada
204. Fausto Carmona
I've had an unhealthy man-crush on Gordon since his days at Nebraska. He hasn't lived up to his young superstar billing just yet, but maybe at 25 this will be the year. If he does finally break out, he's a contributor in every category. Plus, he's a great guy for much bench considering Chipper Jones' penchant for getting hurt. I feel extremely confident in my corner infield situation given the apprehensive nature of both my Jones and Youkilis selections.
Round 18
205. Ryan Theroit
206. James Loney
207. Dioner Navarro
208. Kelly Johnson
209. Chris Carpenter
210. Adam Jones
211. Jim Thome
212. Travis Hafner
213. Joe Saunders
214. Adam LaRoche
215. Mark Buehrle
216. Mike Napoli
Buehrle doesn't give you a ton in fantasy. However, at this spot in the draft I think he's a solid option. He won't strike out many people, but he goes deep into games, gets a lot of decisions, and as long as his ratios don't inflate too much, I don't mind grabbing him here. The purpose of these later rounds as far as starting pitchers go is to either draft for upside or draft for solid contributors. Buehrle, who's thrown at least 200 innings each of the last eight seasons, qualifies as the latter. Also, note the selection of Adam Jones at pick #210. I'll be discussing that shortly.
Round 19
217. Oliver Perez
218. Rickie Weeks
219. David DeJesus
220. Melvin Mora
221. Chris Perez
222. Elvis Andrus
223. Alexi Casilla
224. Jeff Francoeur
225. Denard Span
226. Tim Hudson
227. Rick Ankiel
228. Willy Taveras
Weeks has spent a lot of time on the DL over the last few years. Otherwise, I'd like to think he could be a top-5 fantasy second baseman. He gives me steals off the bench and he's got some pop in his bat, too. Should something happen to Phillips, I'd feel confident running Weeks out there for and extended period. I have to hope he's put his injury woes behind him for now. I'd been taking Andrus frequently as my backup MI, but Weeks is a better player now and I'm less worried about SS (Hanley) than I am about 2B (Phillips).
Round 20
229. Jose Guillen
230. Kazuo Matsui
231. Ryan Garko
232. Khalil Greene
233. Armando Galarraga
234. Gil Meche
235. Juan Pierre
236. Hank Blalock
237. Yadier Molina
238. Taylor Teagarden
239. J.D. Drew
240. Akinori Iwamura
I'm well aware of how Drew tends to hit the DL from time to time. Well aware. But I needed an outfielder, and when he is healthy and locked in, look out. This is where that earlier Adam Jones pick comes in. The owner who drafted Jones inexplicably decided to dump him as soon as add/drops were available. I'd taken Jones as early as 17th round in one of my mocks, so I decided to throw in a waiver claim to add Jones and drop Drew. I won't know the outcome until tomorrow. Jones has miles of upside and will likely be a 20/20 guy as soon as this year. That's a pick I like more than Drew. But if I get stuck with J.D. I'll be fine. If he gets hurt there's plenty of other outfielders.
Round 21
241. Grant Balfour
242. Ubaldo Jimenez
243. Chris Volstad
244. Phil Hughes
245. Gary Sheffield
246. John Smoltz
247. Jeff Clement
248. Aaron Hill
249. Nick Swisher
250. Kevin Gregg
251. Elijah Dukes
252. Mike Cameron
If Buehrle represented a safe late-round pick, taking Jimenez here was the risky pick with upside. I don't know exactly what to expect considering he's young, wild, and pitches in Colorado, but strikes guys out left and right and if he sucks I'll just get someone else. As my last pick, it's not like I'm really attached to him. With that, my team is complete. Take a look (with Rotoworld projections and round taken in parentheses):
| Yahoo 34148 - 2/15 | AVE | HR | RBI | R | SB | |||
| C | Chris Ianetta (12) | 0.263 | 16 | 68 | 63 | 1 | ||
| 1B | Kevin Youkilis (5) | 0.288 | 21 | 99 | 97 | 3 | ||
| 2B | Brandon Phillips (3) | 0.281 | 25 | 92 | 91 | 27 | ||
| 3B | Chipper Jones (7) | 0.318 | 23 | 81 | 84 | 3 | ||
| SS | Hanley Ramirez (1) | 0.314 | 30 | 83 | 114 | 37 | ||
| OF | Carlos Beltran (2) | 0.277 | 28 | 106 | 104 | 22 | ||
| OF | Nick Markakis (4) | 0.308 | 26 | 100 | 106 | 12 | ||
| OF | Hunter Pence (10) | 0.280 | 28 | 99 | 81 | 14 | ||
| UT | Carlos Pena (9) | 0.252 | 32 | 108 | 93 | 2 | ||
| BN | Alex Gordon (17) | 0.272 | 22 | 77 | 72 | 10 | ||
| BN | Rickie Weeks (19) | 0.261 | 17 | 51 | 93 | 23 | ||
| BN | JD Drew (20) | 0.286 | 17 | 73 | 82 | 3 | ||
| W | ERA | WHIP | K | SV | ||||
| SP | Chad Billingsley (6) | 15 | 3.43 | 1.28 | 200 | 0 | ||
| SP | Ervin Santana (8) | 14 | 3.73 | 1.22 | 188 | 0 | ||
| RP | Jonathon Broxton (11) | 4 | 2.88 | 1.13 | 91 | 31 | ||
| RP | Trevor Hoffman (13) | 2 | 3.57 | 1.15 | 44 | 32 | ||
| P | John Danks (14) | 13 | 3.53 | 1.24 | 160 | 0 | ||
| P | Scott Baker (16) | 13 | 3.83 | 1.26 | 159 | 0 | ||
| P | Matt Lindstrom (15) | 3 | 3.36 | 1.30 | 63 | 29 | ||
| BN | Mark Buehrle (18) | 15 | 3.92 | 1.30 | 122 | 0 | ||
| BN | Ubaldo Jimenez (21) | 12 | 4.14 | 1.37 | 168 | 0 | ||
Overall I'm really pleased with this team. Often times, my decision to overlook pitching early hurts me in the ratio categories, and I expect this year will probably be no different. However, I really, really like my balanced offense and I don't see how I'm lower than 3rd in the league in all five categories. Every player on my team has at least 20 homer power. My top two starters should improve from last year. My closers are solid and provide value based on where I took them. I expect my forumla to lead to another championship.
I hope you enjoyed this. No, really, I do. Later.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
