When I started this blog two years ago I had the intention of using it to discuss fantasy baseball. It hasn't really happened, so I figured with my dad off today I'd use a blog post to dissect my first (real) draft of this year. Yesterday afternoon I took part in a Yahoo Public league draft and I believe I came out of it with an excellent team. I'd done three complete drafts for this style of 5x5, 12-team league over at Mock Draft Central, and I felt pretty prepared going in.
I purchased the Rotoworld Draft Guide for the third straight year, and my membership at MDC allowed me to look over their Average Draft Position (ADP) data. Basically, they take all the qualifying drafts and average where players are being taken. I use that to gauge what kind of value I can get by taking certain players at certain positions. As for the Draft Guide, they do a bang-up job with projections and the comments they've generated for each player are very helpful while drafting. Those are the two points of reference I use for these Yahoo drafts.
I'll run through the roster requirements for Yahoo Public leagues: C 1B 2B 3B SS OF OF OF Util SP SP RP RP P P P BN BN BN BN BN. I typically like to draft three relievers, use a bench spot each for an outfielder, a middle infielder and a corner infielder, and use the last two bench spots for starting pitchers. It's a formula that's won be championships every year I've played in Yahoo leagues.
I've honed my philosophy in drafts through the years, and I find my strategies to be pretty solid. I strive for balanced offense in my position players, guys who will contribute in all five categories (AVE, HR, RBI, R, SB). You won't see guys like Adam Dunn or Juan Pierre on my team. I try not to look too heavily on last year's performance; I want to know what they'll do this year. That means drafting for upside, especially late in drafts. I also try hard not to draft guys out of positional necessity (like taking a guy a couple rounds too early just because you need someone at that position), but that's easier said than done, as you'll see.
Drafting pitchers early is overrated. I'm not averse to taking a starter with my first six picks, but I won't take more than two in my first ten. And I never, ever take a closer in my first ten picks. Paying for saves is the biggest mistake fantasy players make. You can pick up saves off the waiver wire no sweat when the season begins. I say take those first ten picks to address your offense, which is much harder to come by during the season.
Anyway, let's hop into it. I was awarded the 2nd pick in the draft, which I hate because it means you have to wait forever for your next pick (the 23rd). I will bold the players I take because I don't feel like writing out the names of the other owners.
Round 1
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. David Wright
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Jose Reyes
6. Grady Sizemore
7. Ryan Braun
8. Josh Hamilton
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Mark Teixeira
11. Ryan Howard
12. Jimmy Rollins
Hanley's been going #1 in most drafts, and picking #2, I thought I'd be "stuck" with A-Rod. I only say it that way because who knows what kind of effect all the steroids crap will have on him. So to my surprise, Pujols went #1, and I snatched up Hanley at what I think is a fantastic spot. It will be interesting to see how hitting 3rd in the Marlins' order effects his SB production, but it should help Hanley in all the other categories, especially RBI. He's the ultimate five-category contributor. And to think just four years ago I saw him play in Portland. Elsewhere in this round, the guy who ended up with Miguel Cabrera at #9 was pretty lucky. I think one can make a legitimate argument he should go as high as #6.
Round 2
13. Tim Lincecum
14. Ian Kinsler
15. Evan Longoria
16. B.J. Upton
17. Chase Utley
18. Johan Santana
19. Dustin Pedroia
20. Alfonso Soriano
21. Brian Roberts
22. Lance Berkman
23. Carlos Beltran
24. Manny Ramirez
Before I get to my pick, I have to say taking Lincecum that high is a mistake. I understand that guy wouldn't pick again until #36 but that's still a total reach. Also, way too high on Roberts. Anyway, I don't love taking outfielders so early, but Beltran is a perfect example of my love for five-category contributors. He's one of the most solid performers every year and he's shown no signs of slowing down. There's chance I would have taken Berkman at that spot, however.
Round 3
25. Jason Bay
26. Brandon Phillips
27. Brandon Webb
28. Carlos Lee
29. Carlos Quentin
30. Prince Fielder
31. Matt Holliday
32. Justin Morneau
33. CC Sabathia
34. Ichiro Suzuki
35. Carl Crawford
36. Roy Halladay
I really struggled with this pick. I was hoping for Pedroia, but he was gone before I had the chance to take Beltran. It was basically between the balance guy in Phillips and the power guys in Fielder and Morneau. In the end I went with the balance guy. If I wind up losing the power categories by slim margains, I'll look back at this pick and grimace. Hopefully Phillips will keep up his production from the last two years and not hurt me too badly with his mediocre batting average. Also, notice the guy who took Lincecum also took Halladay. Go figure.
Round 4
37. Aramis Ramirez
38. Vladimir Guerrero
39. Cole Hamels
40. David Ortiz
41. Matt Kemp
42. Brian McCann
43. Dan Haren
44. Jake Peavy
45. Daisuke Matsuzaka
46. Joe Mauer
47. Nick Markakis
48. Jonathan Papelbon
I was really hoping to take a pitcher here. I'd have been satisified with Hamels, Haren or Peavy, especially Haren because he's so rock solid. But all those guys went, and after the guy in front of me took Mauer, there sat Markakis. According to Rotoworld, he's the 8th-best outfielder for '09 (projection: .308-26-100-106-12), just below Beltran, and his ADP is 34.37. Even though I could have waited for another outfielder, I couldn't pass up Markakis at that spot with that kind of value. I would have been an idiot to reach for someone like Beckett or Lackey instead. At this point, I'm more than happy about all my picks.
Round 5
49. Alexei Ramirez
50. Kevin Youkilis
51. Jermaine Dye
52. Adrian Gonzalez
53. Russell Martin
54. Joe Nathan
55. Alex Rios
56. Garrett Atkins
57. Curtis Granderson
58. Nate McClouth
59. Shane Victorino
60. Geovany Soto
Here's where things get a little tricky. It definitely wasn't a reach for me to take Youkilis here (ADP: 38.03), but Rotoworld isn't terribly high on him (.288-21-99-97-3) and he doesn't steal much. What made him more attractive to me is his 3B eligibility, and that, for whatever reason, is a pretty weak position this year. I'm hoping his numbers wind up somewhere closer his output from last season, but he is a bit more of a risk than Gonzalez. Again, this is not a reach as far as value, but perhaps I did draft him a bit out of position necessity. I'll be fine with that as long as he produces.
Round 6
61. Chris Davis
62. Jacoby Ellsbury
63. Francisco Liriano
64. Corey Hart
65. John Lackey
66. Josh Beckett
67. Magglio Ordonez
68. Victor Martinez
69. Ryan Doumit
70. Jon Lester
71. Chad Billingsley
72. Mariano Rivera
The top-tier starters were going fast, and I decided I needed to do something. I may have taken Lester had he been available, but I feel pretty confident about Billingsley's ability to grow into a #1 starter. He's coming off a bizarre winter broken leg, but by all accounts he's fine and will be ready to go from Opening Day. Rotoworld expects about a strikeout per inning, which is really what you want from a top fantasy starter. It may have been a reach (ADP: 89.16) but I could take the chance given the strength of my top five picks. And as you'll see starting with my next pick, I won't be making anymore reaches for a while.
Round 7
73. A.J. Burnett
74. Chipper Jones
75. Dan Uggla
76. Brad Lidge
77. Roy Oswalt
78. Francisco Rodriguez
79. Felix Hernandez
80. Michael Young
81. Rafael Furcal
82. Jay Bruce
83. Troy Tulowitzki
84. Robinson Cano
This was by far my least favorite pick in this draft. As I mentioned above, third base is a very weak spot this year. Once you get past Aramis Ramirez, it's a steep drop-off to the next group, which includes Jones. I would have really liked to take Chris Davis here, but the lid has been completely blown off his sleeper-ness and he went early in the sixth round. Also, my computer decided to start sucking and slow way down (it also inexplicably closed all the tabs I had open with Rotoworld and MDC information), and I had to make a snap decision. Rotoworld is only projecting 434 ABs for Jones this year, and odds are he'll get hurt again. This was an excellent value pick (ADP: 51.28) but I'd just like to have certainty about what I'll get out of a player at such a key position. At this point I knew I had to ensure the rest of my CI picks would be solid ones.
Round 8
85. Ryan Ludwick
86. Ryan Zimmermann
87. J.J. Hardy
88. Adam Dunn
89. James Shields
90. Derek Jeter
91. Stephen Drew
92. Chone Figgins
93. Yunel Escobar
94. Jose Valverde
95. Ervin Santana
96. Carlos Zambrano
I've now filled my quota for pitchers in the first ten rounds. I believe Santana provides excellent value here (ADP: 78.43) and the best may be yet to come from him after a spectacular 2008. With my top two pitchers, I've taken two one K per inning young guys with low ratios with upside to improve, and they'll also be playing for winning teams. While Lackey might get more of the hype, Santana has really emerged as the Angels' ace and I'm excited to see what he'll do for my team this year.
Round 9
97. Cliff Lee
98. Carlos Pena
99. Jhonny Peralta
100. Scott Kazmir
101. Rich Harden
102. Edinson Volquez
103. Joey Votto
104. Yovani Gallardo
105. Howie Kendrick
106. Jose Lopez
107. Joakim Soria
108. Vernon Wells
I know what you're thinking: how could I have taken a guy who won't give me much in AVE and SB in my first ten picks? Well, grabbing Pena here (ADP: 67.88) made a lot of sense for me in part to make up for the lost power from the Phillips pick and to give me excellent insurance should Jones miss a prolonged period of time. For now, Pena will take up residence as my Util but he gives me flexibility to move other people around as well. And just maybe he'll outperform the .252 Rotoworld has him slated to hit this year.
Round 10
109. Javier Vazquez
110. Joba Chamberlain
111. Bengie Molina
112. Matt Wieters
113. Bobby Abreu
114. Carlos Marmol
115. Pablo Sandoval
116. Derek Lee
117. Johnny Damon
118. Bobby Jenks
119. Hunter Pence
120. Mike Aviles
I could have waited to take my 3rd outfielder. I needed a catcher in this round much worse, but several of them went off the board before I had the chance to make this pick. Pence was very frustrating to own for most of last year, but he's still very young and just need to cut down on his K's to be one of the top fantasy OFs and a five-category contributor. But most of all, this guy was just sitting out there to be taken when he should have been gone three rounds earlier. It's that kind of value I just couldn't pass up. I mean, really, .280-28-99-81-14 in the 10th round? Where do I sign up? Now that my top 10 picks were over, I could begin to concentrate on finding the best guys for my pitching staff. All the top closers are off the board at this point, but I'm not remotely worried. I begin to address the saves issue at pick #122, which I'll discuss next time.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
The Era of False Outrage - A-Rod and the Juice
I know I said I'd wait until the weekend to comment on the Alex Rodriguez situation, but I have so many thoughts I feel I need to get them out now. I've typically refrained from talking about steroids in my blogs, but I did when the Rafael Palmiero bombshell broke in '05 and then last year when the Mitchell Report was made public. So I'll do it again now, but if I had my druthers, I'd never take the time to write anything pertaining to steroids again.
I say this not just because steroids discussions are almost always centered in the past as opposed to the present and future (which I believe are more important than anything that happened 8 or 10 years ago), but because there's a ton of false outrage out there about steroids.
We live in the Era of False Outrage. Twice in the course of a week, we got to see this era at its best (or worst), first with the Michael Phelps bong hit and now with A-Rod's revelation. In this Era of False Outrage, TV talking heads, radio wingnuts, high-flaunting bloggers and message board wackos get to spend hours on end going completely berserk when their favorite celebrities/athletes/politicians/anyone in the public eye at all does something stupid, and these reactions typically don't look beyond the surface of what that indiscretion was. Within a few days, it's often forgotten. It's not likely to be the case here, but the speed at which we move on from things purported to be so awful makes the Era of False Outrage that much more infuriating.
Admittedly, the Phelps and A-Rod situations are different. Phelps put himself in a bad place and was caught in the act. To me, his biggest offense wasn't smoking pot; his biggest offense was getting caught. What percentage of white bread American 23-year-old dudes over the last 40 years has smoked pot? And what percentage of the people spewing False Outrage over this hit the bong when they were 23? Of course, when they were 23, cell phone cameras never existed. You mean to tell me Bill Walton wasn't puffing the magic dragon with his Portland teammates when he was a rookie in 1975, and also happened to be 23? We'll never know, because no one was there snapping pictures to sell to tabloids. So does this mean that what Phelps did was OK? Well...maybe I'm the wrong person to ask, since I think pot should be legal. (Before you call me a pothead, I have a clear argument for why I feel this way. But that's for another day.)
Anyway, A-Rod's case is different, like I mentioned. For two seasons and part of a third (at least long enough for there to be a positive test, if A-Rod is to be believed) one of the most talented men ever to step on a baseball field polluted his body with illegal substances because he felt "enormous pressure to perform" after signing the biggest contract in history (only to be trumped seven years later by...himself). A-Rod said he hasn't taken illegal substances since spring training of 2003 (we only have his word to go on, although he hasn't tested positive since then).
If not for four sources breaking the law and telling SI that A-Rod was on the government-protected list of 104 positive tests from the initial 2003 testing period, we'd almost certainly never know A-Rod did steroids. That makes his admission seem all the more pompous and self-centered. Rob Neyer feels A-Rod is most sorry about getting caught, and probably doesn't feel like he himself did anything wrong (sounds Blago-esque, almost). That's not going to keep him from telling kids not to do steroids, as we're almost guaranteed to see an A-Rod PSA within the next six weeks or so.
This brings me to my larger point, which also ties back to the Era of False Outrage. People forget that in 2001, the same year Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs, Major League Baseball had fostered a rich drug culture that allowed every player to experiment with performance enhancers free of penalty (unless, of course, the authorities caught them. Anyone else remember this little incident?). Steroids were actually illegal in baseball starting in 1991, but there was no way for the rules to be enforced.
From the late 1980s until 2002, MLB essentially told its players, "We know these drugs are illegal, and can have adverse health effects. But we also know it will help you perform better on the field, attract more fans, and make all of us more money. So we'll let you keep doing it, as long as everyone plays by the what-happens-in-the-clubhouse-stays-there rules." For a long time, it worked. After the strike, two juiced-up sluggers helped revitalize the game with a home run race for the ages. Attendance soared, revenues skyrocketed, and people cared about the game just as much as they had before 1994.
And then, Ken Caminiti broke ranks, and became the prime source for Tom Verducci's earth-shattering June 2002 SI cover story that changed baseball (and my life, for reasons pertaining to the power of journalism) forever. This quote from the late Caminiti highlights the zeitgeist of an time when players saw steroids as not just a choice, but a necessity to get by:
I say this not just because steroids discussions are almost always centered in the past as opposed to the present and future (which I believe are more important than anything that happened 8 or 10 years ago), but because there's a ton of false outrage out there about steroids.
We live in the Era of False Outrage. Twice in the course of a week, we got to see this era at its best (or worst), first with the Michael Phelps bong hit and now with A-Rod's revelation. In this Era of False Outrage, TV talking heads, radio wingnuts, high-flaunting bloggers and message board wackos get to spend hours on end going completely berserk when their favorite celebrities/athletes/politicians/anyone in the public eye at all does something stupid, and these reactions typically don't look beyond the surface of what that indiscretion was. Within a few days, it's often forgotten. It's not likely to be the case here, but the speed at which we move on from things purported to be so awful makes the Era of False Outrage that much more infuriating.
Admittedly, the Phelps and A-Rod situations are different. Phelps put himself in a bad place and was caught in the act. To me, his biggest offense wasn't smoking pot; his biggest offense was getting caught. What percentage of white bread American 23-year-old dudes over the last 40 years has smoked pot? And what percentage of the people spewing False Outrage over this hit the bong when they were 23? Of course, when they were 23, cell phone cameras never existed. You mean to tell me Bill Walton wasn't puffing the magic dragon with his Portland teammates when he was a rookie in 1975, and also happened to be 23? We'll never know, because no one was there snapping pictures to sell to tabloids. So does this mean that what Phelps did was OK? Well...maybe I'm the wrong person to ask, since I think pot should be legal. (Before you call me a pothead, I have a clear argument for why I feel this way. But that's for another day.)
Anyway, A-Rod's case is different, like I mentioned. For two seasons and part of a third (at least long enough for there to be a positive test, if A-Rod is to be believed) one of the most talented men ever to step on a baseball field polluted his body with illegal substances because he felt "enormous pressure to perform" after signing the biggest contract in history (only to be trumped seven years later by...himself). A-Rod said he hasn't taken illegal substances since spring training of 2003 (we only have his word to go on, although he hasn't tested positive since then).
If not for four sources breaking the law and telling SI that A-Rod was on the government-protected list of 104 positive tests from the initial 2003 testing period, we'd almost certainly never know A-Rod did steroids. That makes his admission seem all the more pompous and self-centered. Rob Neyer feels A-Rod is most sorry about getting caught, and probably doesn't feel like he himself did anything wrong (sounds Blago-esque, almost). That's not going to keep him from telling kids not to do steroids, as we're almost guaranteed to see an A-Rod PSA within the next six weeks or so.
This brings me to my larger point, which also ties back to the Era of False Outrage. People forget that in 2001, the same year Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs, Major League Baseball had fostered a rich drug culture that allowed every player to experiment with performance enhancers free of penalty (unless, of course, the authorities caught them. Anyone else remember this little incident?). Steroids were actually illegal in baseball starting in 1991, but there was no way for the rules to be enforced.
From the late 1980s until 2002, MLB essentially told its players, "We know these drugs are illegal, and can have adverse health effects. But we also know it will help you perform better on the field, attract more fans, and make all of us more money. So we'll let you keep doing it, as long as everyone plays by the what-happens-in-the-clubhouse-stays-there rules." For a long time, it worked. After the strike, two juiced-up sluggers helped revitalize the game with a home run race for the ages. Attendance soared, revenues skyrocketed, and people cared about the game just as much as they had before 1994.
And then, Ken Caminiti broke ranks, and became the prime source for Tom Verducci's earth-shattering June 2002 SI cover story that changed baseball (and my life, for reasons pertaining to the power of journalism) forever. This quote from the late Caminiti highlights the zeitgeist of an time when players saw steroids as not just a choice, but a necessity to get by:
"If a young player were to ask me what to do," Caminiti continued, "I'm not going to tell him it's bad. Look at all the money in the game: You have a chance to set your family up, to get your daughter into a better school.... So I can't say, 'Don't do it,' not when the guy next to you is as big as a house and he's going to take your job and make the money."
Athletes, in particular professional ones, are the most competitive people on the planet. That competitiveness presents a double-edged sword for people like me who live for sports. On one hand, if athletes weren't highly-competitive, we'd have no reason to watch. If they don't care, why should we? At the same time, hyper-competitive athletes can tend to have darker sides. That includes doing whatever it takes to get ahead, to be the best, to beat your opponents and even your teammates to get to the pinnacle of sport. Many will resort to Machiavellian tactics, as a large percentage of players in baseball's steroids era did.
So when Texas gave a 25-year-old $252 million during what could only be described as the height of the performance-enhancement era of baseball, and as a 25-year-old felt pressure from all sides to live up to this contract, and the sport he played had enabled an entire culture of chemical advantages that could turn a skinny outfielder into a 70+ homer behemoth in just a few years and could make average players into All-Stars without consequences, I'm supposed to be outraged when I find out that 25-year-old decided to give steroids a whack? Are you kidding me? Like A-Rod, because he's such a great player, is just a saint among men, and would never ever do such a thing. I wasn't born yesterday, or at least, was born before the Verducci article came out.
So when I hear the False Outrage machine blaring about A-Rod, and steroids, and how "these guys are role models" and "trashing the history of the game," I can't do anything but laugh. I don't think athletes should be role models for kids beyond what they do on the field. When you watch A-Rod he always plays hard, he never dogs it on the basepaths or in the field, and his approach at the plate is among the best in history. That's the type of role model he should be: this is how you play the game. Beyond that, asking these pro athletes to lead squeaky clean lives is too much. The guys like Mike Lowell, Nick Lidstrom and Steve Nash are harder to come by than you'd think.
The "trashing of history" is equally hilarious. I have a profound love and respect for the history of baseball that will never, ever, ever be shaken. But I don't expect everyone to feel the same way (there may have been a time when I did, but I've grown up since then), and I especially don't think most of these cut-throat millionaire primadonnas who willingly shrank the size of their gonads just to get an edge really cared about what they did to history. All they were thinking about was being the best and striking it big on their next contract. If they thought that little of their own well-being, why should they care at all about their place among guys who did it right like Christy Mathewson, Lou Gehrig, and Stan Musial?
So am I saying it's OK that A-Rod did steroids? No. Unlike pot, I think anabolic steroids and other dangerous chemicals used for such purposes are rightfully illegal. Yet MLB CREATED AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE IT WAS ACCEPTED AND EVEN EXPECTED FOR STEROIDS TO BE DONE. Why should any of us be outraged that A-Rod, one of the most narcassitic players of his generation, did steroids when baseball wasn't going to penalize him?
As far as I'm concerned, the whole era is completely tainted. No one is above suspicion who played in that era. Not one player. I'd like to believe Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Frank Thomas, Derek Jeter, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Ken Griffey, Jr. never took steriods, but I can't be 100% sure. At the same time, I believe Sammy Sosa, Bret Boone, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Albert Belle and Nomar Garciaparra among others did take steroids, but I can't be 100% sure (H/T to Buster Olney, he's the proprietor of this idea).
A-Rod did the smart thing by saying he did steroids and will likely be better off in the long run because of it, even if most people don't realize he probably would have just kept lying about it had his privacy not been breached in the first place (which Doug Glanville covers marvelously in this NY Times op-ed).
Anyway, I'm not sure if any of what I've just written makes sense. It's late and I have to get up to write a story about ice dams, maybe. But I'm ready for the Era of False Outrage to end. You know what we really ought to be outraged about? The economy, that's what.
Bye.
Athletes, in particular professional ones, are the most competitive people on the planet. That competitiveness presents a double-edged sword for people like me who live for sports. On one hand, if athletes weren't highly-competitive, we'd have no reason to watch. If they don't care, why should we? At the same time, hyper-competitive athletes can tend to have darker sides. That includes doing whatever it takes to get ahead, to be the best, to beat your opponents and even your teammates to get to the pinnacle of sport. Many will resort to Machiavellian tactics, as a large percentage of players in baseball's steroids era did.
So when Texas gave a 25-year-old $252 million during what could only be described as the height of the performance-enhancement era of baseball, and as a 25-year-old felt pressure from all sides to live up to this contract, and the sport he played had enabled an entire culture of chemical advantages that could turn a skinny outfielder into a 70+ homer behemoth in just a few years and could make average players into All-Stars without consequences, I'm supposed to be outraged when I find out that 25-year-old decided to give steroids a whack? Are you kidding me? Like A-Rod, because he's such a great player, is just a saint among men, and would never ever do such a thing. I wasn't born yesterday, or at least, was born before the Verducci article came out.
So when I hear the False Outrage machine blaring about A-Rod, and steroids, and how "these guys are role models" and "trashing the history of the game," I can't do anything but laugh. I don't think athletes should be role models for kids beyond what they do on the field. When you watch A-Rod he always plays hard, he never dogs it on the basepaths or in the field, and his approach at the plate is among the best in history. That's the type of role model he should be: this is how you play the game. Beyond that, asking these pro athletes to lead squeaky clean lives is too much. The guys like Mike Lowell, Nick Lidstrom and Steve Nash are harder to come by than you'd think.
The "trashing of history" is equally hilarious. I have a profound love and respect for the history of baseball that will never, ever, ever be shaken. But I don't expect everyone to feel the same way (there may have been a time when I did, but I've grown up since then), and I especially don't think most of these cut-throat millionaire primadonnas who willingly shrank the size of their gonads just to get an edge really cared about what they did to history. All they were thinking about was being the best and striking it big on their next contract. If they thought that little of their own well-being, why should they care at all about their place among guys who did it right like Christy Mathewson, Lou Gehrig, and Stan Musial?
So am I saying it's OK that A-Rod did steroids? No. Unlike pot, I think anabolic steroids and other dangerous chemicals used for such purposes are rightfully illegal. Yet MLB CREATED AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE IT WAS ACCEPTED AND EVEN EXPECTED FOR STEROIDS TO BE DONE. Why should any of us be outraged that A-Rod, one of the most narcassitic players of his generation, did steroids when baseball wasn't going to penalize him?
As far as I'm concerned, the whole era is completely tainted. No one is above suspicion who played in that era. Not one player. I'd like to believe Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Frank Thomas, Derek Jeter, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Ken Griffey, Jr. never took steriods, but I can't be 100% sure. At the same time, I believe Sammy Sosa, Bret Boone, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Albert Belle and Nomar Garciaparra among others did take steroids, but I can't be 100% sure (H/T to Buster Olney, he's the proprietor of this idea).
A-Rod did the smart thing by saying he did steroids and will likely be better off in the long run because of it, even if most people don't realize he probably would have just kept lying about it had his privacy not been breached in the first place (which Doug Glanville covers marvelously in this NY Times op-ed).
Anyway, I'm not sure if any of what I've just written makes sense. It's late and I have to get up to write a story about ice dams, maybe. But I'm ready for the Era of False Outrage to end. You know what we really ought to be outraged about? The economy, that's what.
Bye.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Winter's Almost Done
I haven't checked in for a while, and we're getting pretty close to the start of spring training, so I thought now was a good time to post. I've been working full-time in Newburyport for the past few weeks so it's one of those things where writing for fun hasn't carried the same significance. It's been fantastic so far, and finally getting paid to write stuff is awesome.
Also, the Bruins' stretch of excellence has awakened my love for hockey that's mostly been dormant since junior high, so I can honestly say I've paid less attention to the hot stove this winter than any in the last few years (that doesn't mean I'm not obsessive about it, just not as obsessive). I've seriously considered starting a hockey blog, and I'm also getting to the point where I'll be consciously shutting out most sports chatter from my life besides baseball and hockey. Well, at least until football comes back.
Next weekend I'll be back with my annual American League preview, starting as always with the AL East sans Red Sox. And I won't be commenting on the A-Rod situation in this format until then at the earliest.
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Fort Myers in just a few days. With the signing of Jason Varitek to what amounts to a two-year, $8 million deal, the Sox will head into spring training with a club with several big questions, including but not limited to:
Will J.D. Drew, David Ortiz and Mike Lowell be healthy enough to play all year? Which Josh Beckett will we get this season, the 2007 or 2008 version? Can Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jon Papelbon improve on their '08 successes? Who will be the fifth starter? What will be the breakdown in playing time between Varitek and Josh Bard? Does Varitek really have anything left? Who starts at shortstop on Opening Day, Julio Lugo or Jed Lowrie? Can Jacoby Ellsbury handle being the undisputed #1 center fielder for the Sox? How long will Mark Kotsay be out, and will Brad Wilkerson step up in his absence? Which of the Sox low-risk signings (John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Rocco Baldelli, Takashi Saito, Bard) will pan out? Which will bust? Who's going to contribute in the bullpen, and who'll drop off?
That's more questions than I expected to have when I started writing that paragraph. If the answers to all those pan out in club's favor, there's no reason why they won't finish first in the AL East regardless of what kind of seasons are had in Tampa and New York. And I believe most of them will. I'm most concerned about the trio of veteran hitters.
But Theo Epstein has set the Red Sox up very well for 2009. They failed in pursuit of Mark Teixeira, but wound up with the aforementioned five-some of free agents plus Mark Kotsay for a total of $14 million in guaranteed money (remember that Bard's $1.7 million is part of a non-guaranteed deal), which is $6 million less than what the Yankees will pay Teixeira this year.
Epstein knows of the risks carried by Drew, Lowell and Ortiz. Epstein knows the economic climate of baseball will cause poorer teams to shed high-salaried stars by the spring and summer if their attendance plummets. So the Red Sox are in a great position to pick up these players should they have needs to address during the season.
Teams like Colorado, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Detroit, Houston, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Texas come to mind as potential salary-dumpers. And don't expect many of them to wait until July 31 to make a move. If these teams are sagging in attendance, don't feel they can be competitive, and are just in general hemorrhaging money come as early as May, their respective ownerships will push to move players to cut costs.
The Red Sox are one of the fortunate teams that will be able to pick up the pieces, and Epstein knows it.
That's all for now.
Also, the Bruins' stretch of excellence has awakened my love for hockey that's mostly been dormant since junior high, so I can honestly say I've paid less attention to the hot stove this winter than any in the last few years (that doesn't mean I'm not obsessive about it, just not as obsessive). I've seriously considered starting a hockey blog, and I'm also getting to the point where I'll be consciously shutting out most sports chatter from my life besides baseball and hockey. Well, at least until football comes back.
Next weekend I'll be back with my annual American League preview, starting as always with the AL East sans Red Sox. And I won't be commenting on the A-Rod situation in this format until then at the earliest.
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Fort Myers in just a few days. With the signing of Jason Varitek to what amounts to a two-year, $8 million deal, the Sox will head into spring training with a club with several big questions, including but not limited to:
Will J.D. Drew, David Ortiz and Mike Lowell be healthy enough to play all year? Which Josh Beckett will we get this season, the 2007 or 2008 version? Can Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jon Papelbon improve on their '08 successes? Who will be the fifth starter? What will be the breakdown in playing time between Varitek and Josh Bard? Does Varitek really have anything left? Who starts at shortstop on Opening Day, Julio Lugo or Jed Lowrie? Can Jacoby Ellsbury handle being the undisputed #1 center fielder for the Sox? How long will Mark Kotsay be out, and will Brad Wilkerson step up in his absence? Which of the Sox low-risk signings (John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Rocco Baldelli, Takashi Saito, Bard) will pan out? Which will bust? Who's going to contribute in the bullpen, and who'll drop off?
That's more questions than I expected to have when I started writing that paragraph. If the answers to all those pan out in club's favor, there's no reason why they won't finish first in the AL East regardless of what kind of seasons are had in Tampa and New York. And I believe most of them will. I'm most concerned about the trio of veteran hitters.
But Theo Epstein has set the Red Sox up very well for 2009. They failed in pursuit of Mark Teixeira, but wound up with the aforementioned five-some of free agents plus Mark Kotsay for a total of $14 million in guaranteed money (remember that Bard's $1.7 million is part of a non-guaranteed deal), which is $6 million less than what the Yankees will pay Teixeira this year.
Epstein knows of the risks carried by Drew, Lowell and Ortiz. Epstein knows the economic climate of baseball will cause poorer teams to shed high-salaried stars by the spring and summer if their attendance plummets. So the Red Sox are in a great position to pick up these players should they have needs to address during the season.
Teams like Colorado, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Detroit, Houston, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Texas come to mind as potential salary-dumpers. And don't expect many of them to wait until July 31 to make a move. If these teams are sagging in attendance, don't feel they can be competitive, and are just in general hemorrhaging money come as early as May, their respective ownerships will push to move players to cut costs.
The Red Sox are one of the fortunate teams that will be able to pick up the pieces, and Epstein knows it.
That's all for now.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Checking In on NYE
I've just got a few things to cover here before we say goodbye to 2008:
News broke Sunday night of the Red Sox reaching contract agreements with Brad Penny and Josh Bard on one-year deals. I'm a big fan of both moves, as they help the Sox address needs in a low-cost, high-reward fashion, especially in the case of Penny.
As I mentioned last week, the Sox had been "monitoring" Penny with an eye towards bringing him aboard for 2009. He threw only 94 innings last year and dealt with shoulder and elbow pain all along. Penny had several other suitors for his services, but in the end decided to come to Boston because he wants to win.
Penny was coming off excellent back-to-back seasons for the Dodgers, going 32-13 with a 3.64 ERA in 397 innings between 2006 and 2007. After the arm issues, and some problems with LA management, Penny's 2009 option was declined, and now he finds himself coming to Boston for $5 million plus $3 million in potential incentives based on innings pitched.
We've seen the Red Sox take on these types of pitchers before. In 2005, they gave $1.5 million to Wade Miller, and he did admirably in around 100 innings. Last year, they brought in Bartolo Colon on a minor league deal, and when he wasn't breaking the record for most pulled muscles in a single game in Philly, he pitched pretty well.
But the Red Sox are making a more significant investment in Penny than those others, at least in terms of actual dollars. They certainly feel if even relatively healthy Penny could be more than just a No. 5 starter. It also won't preclude them from going after other starters like Ben Sheets or Kenshin Kawakami because they won't know what they have with Penny until spring training.
In short, the Red Sox could be getting a lot for very little, and I like Penny's chances to make 20-25 starts and really contribute significantly to the '09 Red Sox. If not, at least they won't have paid him as much as they paid Curt Schilling to sit out the '08 season.
You may remember Josh Bard as the poor kid charged with catching Tim Wakefield at the outset of the 2006 season, but he just couldn't hang on to Wake's knucklers, and was traded to San Diego in one of the worst deals of the Theo Epstein era. Bard split time behind the dish with Mike Piazza and astonishingly hit .338 with a .943 OPS in 93 games for the Padres. He was also the Padres' primary catcher in 2007 but ran into some injury/ineffectiveness problems last year, batting just .202 and catching only 49 games.
With the catching market so thin, and Kevin Cash gone to the Yankees, the Sox must have felt some urgency to at least have one catcher under their control with significant major league experience. That's what they have now in Bard, whose one-year, $1.6 million contract is not guaranteed, certainly a rarity in major league contracts today. Again, I have to say I'm a big fan of the move.
There's no doubt the Red Sox still want Jason Varitek back. He's the team captain, he knows the pitchers in and out, he still plays terrific defense and it's awfully hard to see this club without him. I am still yet to hear definitively that a team besides Boston has any interest in Varitek. Scott Boras must face the facts: at this point, Varitek only has value to the Red Sox, and no team is willing to give up their first-round pick to sign a catcher who struck out 122 times in 423 ABs last year (I'm beginning to sound like a broken record here).
So if Varitek wants to play next year it will have to be with the Red Sox. By signing Bard, the Red Sox now gain more leverage in negotiations with Boras. They can say they've got a guy capable of being a primary catcher, and they can still sign someone like Gregg Zaun, Toby Hall or Johnny Estrada to split time with Bard. So either Boras can let his client continue to wait for a job somewhere that is highly unlikely to materialize, or he can return to Boston for something much closer to Boston's price. That could still be a two-year deal, but probably not for the $10 million AAV he got in his least deal. It's also possible Boras could wind up looking bad for not accepting arbitration for Varitek.
So what exactly Bard's role will be for Boston next year is unknown until they get another catcher. We know Bard can't catch Wakefield, and I've heard the Red Sox may ask Varitek to catch Wake as he did from 1998-2000 if he were to return. My guess is that if Varitek does sign, he will probably receive more time off in 2009 than he has in the past, and the Red Sox will continue to look via trade for his long-term replacement (Saltalamacchia, Montero, Clement, et al). We'll see where the Varitek talks go from here.
News broke Sunday night of the Red Sox reaching contract agreements with Brad Penny and Josh Bard on one-year deals. I'm a big fan of both moves, as they help the Sox address needs in a low-cost, high-reward fashion, especially in the case of Penny.
As I mentioned last week, the Sox had been "monitoring" Penny with an eye towards bringing him aboard for 2009. He threw only 94 innings last year and dealt with shoulder and elbow pain all along. Penny had several other suitors for his services, but in the end decided to come to Boston because he wants to win.
Penny was coming off excellent back-to-back seasons for the Dodgers, going 32-13 with a 3.64 ERA in 397 innings between 2006 and 2007. After the arm issues, and some problems with LA management, Penny's 2009 option was declined, and now he finds himself coming to Boston for $5 million plus $3 million in potential incentives based on innings pitched.
We've seen the Red Sox take on these types of pitchers before. In 2005, they gave $1.5 million to Wade Miller, and he did admirably in around 100 innings. Last year, they brought in Bartolo Colon on a minor league deal, and when he wasn't breaking the record for most pulled muscles in a single game in Philly, he pitched pretty well.
But the Red Sox are making a more significant investment in Penny than those others, at least in terms of actual dollars. They certainly feel if even relatively healthy Penny could be more than just a No. 5 starter. It also won't preclude them from going after other starters like Ben Sheets or Kenshin Kawakami because they won't know what they have with Penny until spring training.
In short, the Red Sox could be getting a lot for very little, and I like Penny's chances to make 20-25 starts and really contribute significantly to the '09 Red Sox. If not, at least they won't have paid him as much as they paid Curt Schilling to sit out the '08 season.
You may remember Josh Bard as the poor kid charged with catching Tim Wakefield at the outset of the 2006 season, but he just couldn't hang on to Wake's knucklers, and was traded to San Diego in one of the worst deals of the Theo Epstein era. Bard split time behind the dish with Mike Piazza and astonishingly hit .338 with a .943 OPS in 93 games for the Padres. He was also the Padres' primary catcher in 2007 but ran into some injury/ineffectiveness problems last year, batting just .202 and catching only 49 games.
With the catching market so thin, and Kevin Cash gone to the Yankees, the Sox must have felt some urgency to at least have one catcher under their control with significant major league experience. That's what they have now in Bard, whose one-year, $1.6 million contract is not guaranteed, certainly a rarity in major league contracts today. Again, I have to say I'm a big fan of the move.
There's no doubt the Red Sox still want Jason Varitek back. He's the team captain, he knows the pitchers in and out, he still plays terrific defense and it's awfully hard to see this club without him. I am still yet to hear definitively that a team besides Boston has any interest in Varitek. Scott Boras must face the facts: at this point, Varitek only has value to the Red Sox, and no team is willing to give up their first-round pick to sign a catcher who struck out 122 times in 423 ABs last year (I'm beginning to sound like a broken record here).
So if Varitek wants to play next year it will have to be with the Red Sox. By signing Bard, the Red Sox now gain more leverage in negotiations with Boras. They can say they've got a guy capable of being a primary catcher, and they can still sign someone like Gregg Zaun, Toby Hall or Johnny Estrada to split time with Bard. So either Boras can let his client continue to wait for a job somewhere that is highly unlikely to materialize, or he can return to Boston for something much closer to Boston's price. That could still be a two-year deal, but probably not for the $10 million AAV he got in his least deal. It's also possible Boras could wind up looking bad for not accepting arbitration for Varitek.
So what exactly Bard's role will be for Boston next year is unknown until they get another catcher. We know Bard can't catch Wakefield, and I've heard the Red Sox may ask Varitek to catch Wake as he did from 1998-2000 if he were to return. My guess is that if Varitek does sign, he will probably receive more time off in 2009 than he has in the past, and the Red Sox will continue to look via trade for his long-term replacement (Saltalamacchia, Montero, Clement, et al). We'll see where the Varitek talks go from here.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
A Pitcher's Market, Part II
Let's continue our look at the free agent starters still available as we head into the new year...
Oliver Perez - Age: 27 - 2008 salary: $6.5 million
Scott Boras would like you to believe Perez is one of the five best left-handed pitchers in all of baseball, but like most of what Boras says, that's crap. Perez was around average last season, only managing a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 194 innings. But he's young, one of the youngest of all free agent starters this offseason, and he has shown flashes of greatness dating back to his debut with the Padres in 2000. The Mets want Perez back, but the price they're willing to pay is not yet known. Boras will try to push for five years, but again, this isn't the kind of winter where teams not named the Yankees are able to dish out that kind of contract length for far from sure-things. I can't see Perez leaving the NL, but if an AL team came calling with something close to what Boras is demanding, they might have to jump on it. I suspect the Mets might be better off with Jon Garland anyway.
Andy Pettitte - Age: 36 - 2008 salary: $16 million
It's been a great career for Pettitte. He was an integral part of every Yankees' team that made it to a World Series during these past two decades. He went to Houston, close to his Louisiana home, and helped them get to a World Series. Even though he was implicated in baseball's various steroid scandals, he was one of few stars to admit HGH use, and escaped that particular scandal because everyone made Roger Clemens out to be the real villain. Pettitte's had two solid seasons back with the Yankees, and they have a $10 million offer out for Pettitte to return as their 2009 fifth starter. They now seem more willing to go with Phil Hughes following the Teixeira signing, but there's still a chance it happens. Should the offer be pulled, it's safe to say Pettitte will consider joining rotation-mate Mike Mussina in retirement. The Astros probably don't have the money Pettitte would want at this point.
Ben Sheets - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $12.125 million
Has anyone been more frustrating to fantasy owners over the years than Ben Sheets? He always appears so tantalizing, because everyone knows his stuff is still at its 2004 level, when a 25-year-old Sheets struck out 264 batters with a 2.70 ERA and a microscopic 0.98 WHIP in 237 innings. In 2008, Sheets came within two innings of throwing 200 for the first time since that magical '04 season, but an elbow injury crept up at the worst possible time. He tried to gut through it, but was abysmal in a nationally-televised start against the Cubs during the last weekend of the season. That injury likely cost Sheets millions this winter. The Yankees had been linked to Sheets during the winter meetings, but recent rumblings have the Rangers preparing to make a run. Jon Daniels says there's been no offer, but there has been contact between the two parties. It's predictable for the Rangers to go after a pitcher like Sheets, and but if Sheets wants to live up to his potential he sure as hell won't do it playing in Arlington. If the Red Sox are feeling more ambitious than just going after Brad Penny, I don't see why it would hurt to make a play for Sheets. They could give him two years at around $14-$15 million annually and see what happens. Again, it's a tough winter for a guy like Sheets to be a free agent. If anyone gives him more than two guaranteed years, I'll be surprised.
More tomorrow.
Oliver Perez - Age: 27 - 2008 salary: $6.5 million
Scott Boras would like you to believe Perez is one of the five best left-handed pitchers in all of baseball, but like most of what Boras says, that's crap. Perez was around average last season, only managing a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 194 innings. But he's young, one of the youngest of all free agent starters this offseason, and he has shown flashes of greatness dating back to his debut with the Padres in 2000. The Mets want Perez back, but the price they're willing to pay is not yet known. Boras will try to push for five years, but again, this isn't the kind of winter where teams not named the Yankees are able to dish out that kind of contract length for far from sure-things. I can't see Perez leaving the NL, but if an AL team came calling with something close to what Boras is demanding, they might have to jump on it. I suspect the Mets might be better off with Jon Garland anyway.
Andy Pettitte - Age: 36 - 2008 salary: $16 million
It's been a great career for Pettitte. He was an integral part of every Yankees' team that made it to a World Series during these past two decades. He went to Houston, close to his Louisiana home, and helped them get to a World Series. Even though he was implicated in baseball's various steroid scandals, he was one of few stars to admit HGH use, and escaped that particular scandal because everyone made Roger Clemens out to be the real villain. Pettitte's had two solid seasons back with the Yankees, and they have a $10 million offer out for Pettitte to return as their 2009 fifth starter. They now seem more willing to go with Phil Hughes following the Teixeira signing, but there's still a chance it happens. Should the offer be pulled, it's safe to say Pettitte will consider joining rotation-mate Mike Mussina in retirement. The Astros probably don't have the money Pettitte would want at this point.
Ben Sheets - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $12.125 million
Has anyone been more frustrating to fantasy owners over the years than Ben Sheets? He always appears so tantalizing, because everyone knows his stuff is still at its 2004 level, when a 25-year-old Sheets struck out 264 batters with a 2.70 ERA and a microscopic 0.98 WHIP in 237 innings. In 2008, Sheets came within two innings of throwing 200 for the first time since that magical '04 season, but an elbow injury crept up at the worst possible time. He tried to gut through it, but was abysmal in a nationally-televised start against the Cubs during the last weekend of the season. That injury likely cost Sheets millions this winter. The Yankees had been linked to Sheets during the winter meetings, but recent rumblings have the Rangers preparing to make a run. Jon Daniels says there's been no offer, but there has been contact between the two parties. It's predictable for the Rangers to go after a pitcher like Sheets, and but if Sheets wants to live up to his potential he sure as hell won't do it playing in Arlington. If the Red Sox are feeling more ambitious than just going after Brad Penny, I don't see why it would hurt to make a play for Sheets. They could give him two years at around $14-$15 million annually and see what happens. Again, it's a tough winter for a guy like Sheets to be a free agent. If anyone gives him more than two guaranteed years, I'll be surprised.
More tomorrow.
A Pitcher's Market, Part I
On the heels of Randy Johnson's new one-year pact with the Giants, let's take a look at some of the many options remaining in the free agent pitching market. As I mentioned yesterday, there's been very little movement in the overall market but especially with starting pitchers, where only CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett have signed out of all the top-tier candidates. Here we go:
Jon Garland - Age: 29 - 2008 salary: $12 million
Garland is coming off his seventh consecutive season with over 190 innings under his belt. He'd probably be in line for a deal like Carlos Silva's or Gil Meche's or even better in any other year. Unfortunately for Garland, the best he'll probably be able to do in 2009 is a three-year pact with an option for a fourth with an average right around his $12 million 2008 salary. Deep in this Heyman article (with a headline that makes me grit my teeth) is mention that the Dodgers, White Sox, and Mets are options for Garland, and Heyman also makes the excellent point that Garland is "two years younger than Burnett with a better lifetime record (106-89)." I believe Garland could trive in the National League as a potential No. 2 starter. Should the Mets lose out on one of Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez, I see them making a play for Garland, and I doubt they'll be disappointed with the outcome.
Braden Looper - Age: 34 - 2008 salary: $5.5 million
Looper has been solid in two seasons as a starter for the Cardinals, and he's looking for a multi-year deal heading into 2009. The team most interested in his services appears to be the Brewers, but nothing is likely to get done until after the New Year. A nice two- or three-year deal could be in the works, and the Brewers need all the help they can get after losing Sabathia and potentially Ben Sheets.
Derek Lowe - Age: 35 - 2008 salary: $10 million
There's no question that Lowe is one of a select few free agents the Red Sox have let go in recent years that done very, very well in a different uniform. Lowe was consistently excellent for four years in Dodger Blue, his ERA never getting higher than 3.88 and his IP never getting lower than 199. He's still got that great sinking fastball, and he's one of few starting pitchers in this market likely to get four years, despite his age. The Mets are reportedly deep in negotiations with Lowe, but nothing his imminent, according to Omar Minaya. I've heard the Red Sox are maintaining contact with Lowe, and Lowe would love to come back to Boston, but I'd be surprised if that's the rout the Sox go. Lowe's numbers came while playing in the weakest-hitting division in baseball, and teams must be aware of that while courting him. I expect Lowe to wind up with the Mets on a four-year deal that will pay him around $15-$16 million per year, slightly less than Burnett's deal with the Yankees.
Brad Penny - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $9.25 million.
Penny only made 17 starts in 2008 while dealing with constant pain in his right shoulder. There's been durability issues with Penny throughout his career, and he's only thrown 200 innings twice. Still, Penny is only a year removed from finishing 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting, and the talent has always been there. The Red Sox were said to be "monitoring" Penny at the beginning of the offseason, and his name has come up constantly as a possibility for that fifth slot in their rotation. I personally would love to see Boston take a flier on Penny and see what happens. He would not cost a lot in money and years. I'm sure plenty of other teams have interest as well.
More to come.
Jon Garland - Age: 29 - 2008 salary: $12 million
Garland is coming off his seventh consecutive season with over 190 innings under his belt. He'd probably be in line for a deal like Carlos Silva's or Gil Meche's or even better in any other year. Unfortunately for Garland, the best he'll probably be able to do in 2009 is a three-year pact with an option for a fourth with an average right around his $12 million 2008 salary. Deep in this Heyman article (with a headline that makes me grit my teeth) is mention that the Dodgers, White Sox, and Mets are options for Garland, and Heyman also makes the excellent point that Garland is "two years younger than Burnett with a better lifetime record (106-89)." I believe Garland could trive in the National League as a potential No. 2 starter. Should the Mets lose out on one of Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez, I see them making a play for Garland, and I doubt they'll be disappointed with the outcome.
Braden Looper - Age: 34 - 2008 salary: $5.5 million
Looper has been solid in two seasons as a starter for the Cardinals, and he's looking for a multi-year deal heading into 2009. The team most interested in his services appears to be the Brewers, but nothing is likely to get done until after the New Year. A nice two- or three-year deal could be in the works, and the Brewers need all the help they can get after losing Sabathia and potentially Ben Sheets.
Derek Lowe - Age: 35 - 2008 salary: $10 million
There's no question that Lowe is one of a select few free agents the Red Sox have let go in recent years that done very, very well in a different uniform. Lowe was consistently excellent for four years in Dodger Blue, his ERA never getting higher than 3.88 and his IP never getting lower than 199. He's still got that great sinking fastball, and he's one of few starting pitchers in this market likely to get four years, despite his age. The Mets are reportedly deep in negotiations with Lowe, but nothing his imminent, according to Omar Minaya. I've heard the Red Sox are maintaining contact with Lowe, and Lowe would love to come back to Boston, but I'd be surprised if that's the rout the Sox go. Lowe's numbers came while playing in the weakest-hitting division in baseball, and teams must be aware of that while courting him. I expect Lowe to wind up with the Mets on a four-year deal that will pay him around $15-$16 million per year, slightly less than Burnett's deal with the Yankees.
Brad Penny - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $9.25 million.
Penny only made 17 starts in 2008 while dealing with constant pain in his right shoulder. There's been durability issues with Penny throughout his career, and he's only thrown 200 innings twice. Still, Penny is only a year removed from finishing 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting, and the talent has always been there. The Red Sox were said to be "monitoring" Penny at the beginning of the offseason, and his name has come up constantly as a possibility for that fifth slot in their rotation. I personally would love to see Boston take a flier on Penny and see what happens. He would not cost a lot in money and years. I'm sure plenty of other teams have interest as well.
More to come.
Friday, December 26, 2008
I'm Back...
I'm home for winter break, and I promised myself I'd write more as a result. To update you about my life, I just had perhaps the most fun three months of my college years, working for an amazing school newspaper, getting to cover the two best teams at UNH, meeting tons of new people and making lifelong friendships as a result. I have concluded taking classes and after this brief respite, I'll be doing my UNH journalism internship at the Daily News of Newburyport on the North Shore. My work will be varied and interesting, and hopefully I'll get to cover some high school baseball after the snow melts. Then in May I will get that diploma, and in these uncertain times, we all have to hope for the best when it comes to getting jobs. But that's in the future. Right now, I'm just trying to relax for these few weeks before beginning my life in the work force.
I did get a chance to write about baseball during my tenure at TNH, including this Red Sox post-mordem that would have fit perfectly here at JBB. Take a look if you want to recall the pain of the end of the 2008 season. I know, I'm so good at marketing myself.
Let's head right into the big news of this week, that being the revelation the New York Yankees have pockets deeper than the Mariana Trench. They swooped in at the very last second to sign the crowned jewel of the free agent season, Mark Teixeira, to an eight-year deal worth a reported $180 million. This comes a few short weeks after the Bombers came to agreements with stud free agent arms CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett for $161 million and $82.5 million, respectively. So while the Yankees have committed $423.5 million to their future this offseason, no other team has made what you'd call just a "splash" in the most timid baseball winter in recent history.
The Red Sox, in particular Theo Epstein, were enamored with Teixeira, and badly wanted to sign the slugging first baseman not just for next year but to be their mid-lineup stalwart for several years to come. But they only wanted to sign him for their price, and their reported final offer for Tex was $12 million short of what the Yankees will give him.
When Epstein, Larry Lucchino and John Henry flew to Texas to meet with Teixeira and his agent Scott Boras, I was fairly confident the latter two would be joining the former three on their way back to Boston. Of course, this wasn't the case. Boras played his typical game, telling the Sox he had much bigger offers on the table for Teixeira, and Henry chose to call his bluff by publicly proclaiming the Red Sox would "not be a factor" in the bidding for Teixeira's services.
I felt like the major media outlets got it all wrong when they claimed the next day that the Red Sox were out of running entirely for Teixeira. The wording of Henry's statement did not close the door at all. But maybe in the end they were right. I wonder if Teixeira was put off by the often off-putting duo of Lucchino and Henry, and instructed his agent to do whatever it took to get him into pinstripes.
Until Tuesday, it didn't seem like the Yankees were really seriously considering signing Teixeira. They'd already brought on two huge contracts this winter, traded for Nick Swisher, and their glut of corner outfield/first base/DH types seemed to keep them out of the running. Well, looking back, it's clear they wanted Teixiera all along, and were willing to wait for all the other offers to come in just so they could trump them by about $10 million or so. The Nationals may have had the biggest offer on the table, but there was no reason to believe Teixeira, who wanted to play for a winner, that he'd actually sign with either his hometown Orioles or Washington.
There's still a lot we don't know. Murray Chass (who somehow has a blog even though he remembers the McKinley Administration) believes Teixeira and his wife didn't want to live in Boston, and chose New York instead. This might be true, and if so it makes me feel better about the situation. But I can't help but feel for a measly (to the Sox) $2-$3 million more per year, they might have been able to convince the Teixeiras to set aside their reservations about Boston. Then again, maybe it was Teixeira's desire all along to play for New York, and the Yankees' interest was stoked as soon as that fact became apparent to them. Maybe the Red Sox never really wanted Tex as much as what had been reported all winter. It's hard to say right now.
The Red Sox are not screwed for the 2009 season because of this. They will cross their fingers and hope Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, and J.D. Drew have fully healthy seasons, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis replicate their 2008 successes, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia become the game's best 1-2 punch. Signing Teixeira would have taken a considerable amount of pressure off all those players, and Lowell would have been playing at a different address. I've heard Lowell felt betrayed by all the Teixeira talk, which is unfortunate considering Lowell is probably the best guy in baseball and doesn't deserve to be jerked around like this. Hopefully this will motivate him to come back stronger than ever from hip surgery. Also, Youkilis will likely be the everyday cleanup hitter for the Sox, a role he seemed to thrive in down the stretch and in the playoffs. If they want a bona fide mid-lineup star, they will have to wait until next offseason to go after Matt Holliday, or maybe Albert Pujols in two years.
Don't get any ideas in your head that the Sox might go after Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, or Bobby Abreu. They were either going to sign Teixeira or have a relatively quiet offseason as far as signing free agents. This article by Sean McAdam points out how futile the Red Sox view the free agent market. The current Red Sox administration will never spend half a billion dollars on free agents in one offseason, and it's hard not to respect them for that. Epstein refuses to get into bidding wars with his rivals, and he won't let the Yankees dictate his own moves the way Dan Duquette and Lou Gorman did.
The Sox need to focus now on their catching situation after the Yankees pilfered Kevin Cash the same day they yanked Tex off the market. Boras is having a tough time shopping Jason Varitek to other teams, mostly because the Red Sox offered Tek arbitration and no team wants to give up their first round pick for a soon-to-be 37-year-old oft-injured catcher who sported a .672 OPS last year. Conventional wisdom would say Varitek comes back to the Red Sox on a two-year deal that will pay him around his $10 million salary from last year. Because neither party has much of an option elsewhere, this should be the way it goes down. Needless to say, Boras is a slippery fuck. So anything can happen.
That's all I've got for today. I'll be back soon with thoughts on the still-vast free agent pitching market, and how frugal teams like Boston, Tampa, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Arizona could come up with some big bargains by waiting. I hope everyone had a good Christmas.
I did get a chance to write about baseball during my tenure at TNH, including this Red Sox post-mordem that would have fit perfectly here at JBB. Take a look if you want to recall the pain of the end of the 2008 season. I know, I'm so good at marketing myself.
Let's head right into the big news of this week, that being the revelation the New York Yankees have pockets deeper than the Mariana Trench. They swooped in at the very last second to sign the crowned jewel of the free agent season, Mark Teixeira, to an eight-year deal worth a reported $180 million. This comes a few short weeks after the Bombers came to agreements with stud free agent arms CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett for $161 million and $82.5 million, respectively. So while the Yankees have committed $423.5 million to their future this offseason, no other team has made what you'd call just a "splash" in the most timid baseball winter in recent history.
The Red Sox, in particular Theo Epstein, were enamored with Teixeira, and badly wanted to sign the slugging first baseman not just for next year but to be their mid-lineup stalwart for several years to come. But they only wanted to sign him for their price, and their reported final offer for Tex was $12 million short of what the Yankees will give him.
When Epstein, Larry Lucchino and John Henry flew to Texas to meet with Teixeira and his agent Scott Boras, I was fairly confident the latter two would be joining the former three on their way back to Boston. Of course, this wasn't the case. Boras played his typical game, telling the Sox he had much bigger offers on the table for Teixeira, and Henry chose to call his bluff by publicly proclaiming the Red Sox would "not be a factor" in the bidding for Teixeira's services.
I felt like the major media outlets got it all wrong when they claimed the next day that the Red Sox were out of running entirely for Teixeira. The wording of Henry's statement did not close the door at all. But maybe in the end they were right. I wonder if Teixeira was put off by the often off-putting duo of Lucchino and Henry, and instructed his agent to do whatever it took to get him into pinstripes.
Until Tuesday, it didn't seem like the Yankees were really seriously considering signing Teixeira. They'd already brought on two huge contracts this winter, traded for Nick Swisher, and their glut of corner outfield/first base/DH types seemed to keep them out of the running. Well, looking back, it's clear they wanted Teixiera all along, and were willing to wait for all the other offers to come in just so they could trump them by about $10 million or so. The Nationals may have had the biggest offer on the table, but there was no reason to believe Teixeira, who wanted to play for a winner, that he'd actually sign with either his hometown Orioles or Washington.
There's still a lot we don't know. Murray Chass (who somehow has a blog even though he remembers the McKinley Administration) believes Teixeira and his wife didn't want to live in Boston, and chose New York instead. This might be true, and if so it makes me feel better about the situation. But I can't help but feel for a measly (to the Sox) $2-$3 million more per year, they might have been able to convince the Teixeiras to set aside their reservations about Boston. Then again, maybe it was Teixeira's desire all along to play for New York, and the Yankees' interest was stoked as soon as that fact became apparent to them. Maybe the Red Sox never really wanted Tex as much as what had been reported all winter. It's hard to say right now.
The Red Sox are not screwed for the 2009 season because of this. They will cross their fingers and hope Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, and J.D. Drew have fully healthy seasons, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis replicate their 2008 successes, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia become the game's best 1-2 punch. Signing Teixeira would have taken a considerable amount of pressure off all those players, and Lowell would have been playing at a different address. I've heard Lowell felt betrayed by all the Teixeira talk, which is unfortunate considering Lowell is probably the best guy in baseball and doesn't deserve to be jerked around like this. Hopefully this will motivate him to come back stronger than ever from hip surgery. Also, Youkilis will likely be the everyday cleanup hitter for the Sox, a role he seemed to thrive in down the stretch and in the playoffs. If they want a bona fide mid-lineup star, they will have to wait until next offseason to go after Matt Holliday, or maybe Albert Pujols in two years.
Don't get any ideas in your head that the Sox might go after Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, or Bobby Abreu. They were either going to sign Teixeira or have a relatively quiet offseason as far as signing free agents. This article by Sean McAdam points out how futile the Red Sox view the free agent market. The current Red Sox administration will never spend half a billion dollars on free agents in one offseason, and it's hard not to respect them for that. Epstein refuses to get into bidding wars with his rivals, and he won't let the Yankees dictate his own moves the way Dan Duquette and Lou Gorman did.
The Sox need to focus now on their catching situation after the Yankees pilfered Kevin Cash the same day they yanked Tex off the market. Boras is having a tough time shopping Jason Varitek to other teams, mostly because the Red Sox offered Tek arbitration and no team wants to give up their first round pick for a soon-to-be 37-year-old oft-injured catcher who sported a .672 OPS last year. Conventional wisdom would say Varitek comes back to the Red Sox on a two-year deal that will pay him around his $10 million salary from last year. Because neither party has much of an option elsewhere, this should be the way it goes down. Needless to say, Boras is a slippery fuck. So anything can happen.
That's all I've got for today. I'll be back soon with thoughts on the still-vast free agent pitching market, and how frugal teams like Boston, Tampa, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Arizona could come up with some big bargains by waiting. I hope everyone had a good Christmas.
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