The Invisible Man, Soon to be Gone Forever

One member of the Boston Red Sox current roster has been absent from the box scores of all games since June 14, without a whisper of an injury or any other serious issue coming out of the clubhouse. That player has seen no at-bats, no pinch-running, no defensive replacements; a tremendous rarity for an active player during the Terry Francona era.

That player is Julio Lugo. And if the last week and a half has been any indication, his days with the Red Sox appear to be numbered.

Nick Green has firmly entrenched himself as this team's starting shortstop. Green, a career utility man who did not appear in the Majors at all last season, has gained more and more comfort with both Boston and a position that's not his natural one. His walk-off "home run" (if you want to call it that) against Atlanta last weekend provided the high point of his season thus far. At .293/.345/.459 going into Tuesday's action, only Derek Jeter and Jason Bartlett are better offensive shortstops in the American League right now.

Whether Green stays as the primary shortstop depends on how Jed Lowrie performs upon returning from his lengthy DL stint. Lowrie should have had surgery on his wrist last winter, but didn't get it until starting the season 1-for-18. Now on a rehab assignment in Pawtucket, Lowrie should be ready for the Majors very soon.

That makes Lugo, whose defense has completely eroded and offense has shown only light flashes in limited '09 play, the odd man out. The letters "DFA" appear to be in his future. Some other scenarios would include sending Green, who's playing on a minor league contract this year, to Pawtucket and going with Lowrie and Lugo (this is highly unlikely since Green is doing so well and Lowrie might not play everyday initially), or optioning Lowrie to Pawtucket once his rehab assignment ends and continuing with the current arragement. This can't be ruled out, but it's fairly obvious that Lowrie (or anyone for that matter) has more value to the big club than Lugo does now, and when Lowrie is healthy he belongs in the Majors.

When talking about Lowrie on Tuesday, Francona said, "He's got to play. There's no getting around it." At the very least, having Lowrie and Green gives the Red Sox more flexibility since they can both play three infield positions while Lugo is limited to shortstop, which he sucks at anyway.

It's no secret the Red Sox have been shopping Lugo for a long, long time now. Anybody that wants a mediocre shortstop with roughly $14 million guaranteed remaining on his salary could have him. Unfortunately for Theo Epstein, no one's biting, and no one will bite. Even if the Red Sox were to pay the rest of his salary, no team in baseball is willing to give up anything in return.

I see no other reason why the Red Sox would knowingly keep Lugo off the field for this long. Francona is all about keeping guys fresh and making everyone happy in regards to playing time. It's been his MO since showing up in Boston. They obviously don't care about getting this guy on the field because they don't expect him to be on the team much longer.

They will designate Lugo for assignment, giving the club 10 days to figure what to do next. If Lugo isn't traded after those 10 days, the Red Sox will release him, and will be on the hook for that $14 million or so still owed.

It will look bad for Epstein and the Red Sox, who were so high on Lugo for years and threw $36 million at him when there were few other suitors in 2006. Lugo's detractors are quick to forget how much he improved both offensively and defensively down the stretch in 2007 and that he was a key contributor to their World Series run, going 5-for-13 in the Fall Classic.

But that's all in the past. Lugo is a sunk cost, and the Red Sox have resigned themselves to that fact. Lugo's contract is one of the many reasons why Epstein has soured on big deals for non-superstars and why you'll likely never see another one for Boston during his tenure. Case in point: the Red Sox were forced to give up their '07 first round pick to the Dodgers upon signing Lugo. They could not have forseen this happening, but if they had that pick, they likely would have selected Rick Porcello, who should have gone in the top five but fell due to signability concerns. As a Red Sox fan, who would you rather have on the club right now: Porcello or Lugo?

Revisionist history doesn't really matter now. Lugo is a goner, and the Red Sox will be better for it.

The Back of the Rotation Quandary

The Red Sox will look to sweep the Phillies Sunday afternoon, and given how taxed their bullpen has been these past two games, they'll also be looking towards Josh Beckett to continue his dominant ways. Beckett got off to a rough start in 2009, but he's allowed just one earned run in his past four starts and appears to be back to his 2007 form. Jon Lester has overcome an even rougher 2009 outset, with a ridiculous 34 strikeouts in his last three outings.

With quite possibly the best bullpen in franchise history and an offense gaining steam behind some David Ortiz consistency, the re-emergence of Beckett and Lester ought to cement the Red Sox as the team to beat in the AL through the rest of the year. Yet, it's the logjam at the back of the rotation that is creating headaches for the front office.

John Smoltz went to the hill Friday for what could be his final rehab start for Pawtucket. At this time, Smoltz is in a "holding pattern," and he'll pitch somewhere this Thursday. It's not known at this time where that start will take place. Tim Wakefield is scheduled to pitch Tuesday, with Brad Penny set to go Wednesday and Lester on Thursday.

Trade rumors have been swirling around Penny for weeks now. After Monday, they Red Sox will be able to trade Penny without his consent. He had perhaps his best 2009 start on Thursday, lasting six shutout innings against the Yankees and definitely upping his trade value in the process. Penny has about $4 million guaranteed remaining on his salary for the rest of this season. With so few teams able to take on payroll this year, the Red Sox will probably have to pay most of that salary to get anything of value in return. Penny could be the last piece for several NL clubs, including the Mets, Phillies or Cardinals. If they really want Penny, they should be giving up at least one solid prospect for his services.

The Red Sox clearly believe in Smoltz, and they want to give their $5.5 million investment a chance at the Big League level. They believe that a postseason rotation including Beckett, Lester and Smoltz would be relatively unbeatable and give them a significant advantage over every other club. But there's only five rotation spots, and the six-man rotation ideas being thrown out are totally bogus. Routines are essential to starting pitchers, and throwing off those routines could be disastrous.

The question is, who goes? We've already discussed Penny, the most attractive trade candidate. If this were based solely on performance, Daisuke Matsuzaka would be the odd man out. He looked particularly bad Saturday night in an abbreviated outing, getting smacked around like a rented mule. He's complained after his last two starts about some level of physical discomfort. Dice-K is clearly not all the way back, and another trip to the DL seems imminent. Smoltz could slide into the rotation in his place.

But that's only a temporary fix. Hopefully Dice-K would only spend a few weeks then be back to his nibbling self. A move will still have to be made. And we've haven't even mentioned the two aces in Pawtucket, Clay Buchholz (4-0, 1.75 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 59 K in 67 IP) and Michael Bowden (3-3, 2.48 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 42 K in 65.1 IP), and both are proving they have nothing left to prove in Triple-A.

The guess here is Smoltz starts for Pawtucket on Thursday and they give Matsuzaka one more start to prove he's not completely worthless. If that outing goes poorly, the Red Sox will hold off on dealing Penny, put Dice-K on the DL and put Smoltz into the rotation. If Matsuzaka is fine, Penny probably gets shipped off to the NL before Smoltz has to come off the DL.

As for Bowden and Buchholz, it's possible the Red Sox have something big in the offing in terms of a trade for a big bat. However, it would only make sense for them to trade those pitchers if they could get a player back with commensurate MLB service time. At least that's the way the Red Sox rationalize it.

Too much pitching is always a good problem to have. But as we've seen in the past, pitching can dry up in a hurry. The Red Sox should only deal from their surplus if they feel it will benefit the club in both the long and short term.

Trade Talk in June

Let us begin with the big trade of the past week, Nate McLouth unleashed from baseball purgatory in Pittsburgh for a package of young Braves including Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez and Redstone's own Jeff Locke. The trade, which came the same day Tom Glavine was unceremoniously dumped by Atlanta, sent shockwaves up both ends of the East Coast.

McLouth had a terrific first half in 2008 but finished with a .276/.356/.497 line along with 26 HR and 23 SB. He was awarded a Gold Glove but probably didn't deserve it, and in February the Pirates signed him to a team-friendly extension buying out his arbitration years for $15.75 million along with a $10.65 million option for 2012 (how they came up with that number probably involved a dartboard). At 27, I think the Pirates gave up on McLouth a bit too soon for a return that leaves something to be desired.

This week, Pirates players like Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche publicly voiced their displeasure with the deal, with Pittsburgh only three games under .500 and 6.5 games out in the NL Central. GM Neal Huntington issued an open letter to fans defending the trade, which is never a good sign. The Pirates have not finished higher than 4th this decade, with zero winning seasons since 1992 (call it The Curse of Francisco Cabrera and Sid Bream). They began last year with a great outfield of McClouth, Xavier Nady and Jason Bay, all of whom now play in different cities. It's amazing to me they have any fans left to fill their beautiful park.

Morton is an OK starter who's probably reached his ceiling as a Quad-A type. This is the second time Hernandez has been dealt before getting to the Majors. And as for Mr. Locke, to me he was the centerpiece of the trade for the Pirates. For the first time in his whole life, Jeff is facing adversity when it comes to getting guys out. His WHIP was an uncharacteristically high 1.60 through 45 2/3 IP with his old team in Myrtle Beach. He's still only given up one HR this year and should benefit from going to a better team in Lynchburg, Va.

I haven't talked to Jeff personally since the deal went down, but I'm sure it must all be a little surreal for him. It's easy to forget, as fans of the game, the emotional and personal impact of trades like this until someone you know is involved in one. He's spent the past three years with the Braves, and forged friendships with teammates and people in the organization. So now his name gets put all over ESPN and he's got to move from one town to another, and will be expected to be pretty good since the Pirates gave up an All-Star to get him.

I believe Jeff will be pitching in the Show someday. That it will probably happen closer to home, and probably sooner that it would have in Atlanta, is a good thing. We're all pulling for you, Lefty. Continue to make us proud.

Elsewhere...

It seems clear the Red Sox will be making a trade involving Brad Penny in the next couple weeks. John Smoltz is slated to return from the DL on June 16, with Penny's scheduled turn in the rotation coming the next day against Philadelphia. The best guess here is that Penny will be dealt in the days leading up to that. There have been many teams mentioned as potential suitors, and the Red Sox should be able to pick up a decent prospect as long as they're willing to pay a significant portion of Penny's remaining salary. Smoltz has been lighting it up in his rehab starts, and it's exciting to think he'll soon be wearing a Red Sox uniform.

Several members of the Cleveland Indians have to be wondering about their futures. They are a last-place club with plenty of valuable pieces, including Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee and Mark DeRosa amongst others. No doubt DeRosa gets dealt, the Mets could use some depth especially with Jose Reyes likely to miss the rest of June. It will be harder pry away Martinez or Lee, but we saw last year with CC Sabathia that GM Mark Shapiro will pull the trigger if he feels he's getting good value in return. This year appears to be a lost cause for the Tribe, so Shapiro should be listening on his hot commodities.

Out west, the Athletics and GM Billy Beane find themselves in a similar situation. Matt Holliday could be a huge prize of Beane makes him available at the deadline, and Buster Olney mentioned today that Beane's disussed Orlando Cabrera with the Red Sox. The Mariners also have to decide if they're buying or selling, with the rejuvenated Erik Bedard at the center of rumors. It appears the Rangers are for real after taking two of three in Boston this weekend, and if the Angels wake up there ought to be a good pennant race out there through the summer. The other two teams should sell, in my opinion.

Final note: I've added a badge to my Twitter page on the right-hand side, and you may have noticed I've been spending most of my time on that discussing stick and puck instead of bat and ball. There's only, at most, two games left in the NHL season, so hopefully I should be back to writing about baseball both here and there more frequently very soon.

Big Papi's 21st Century Breakdown

Yes, I did reference the new Green Day album in the title of this blog post. The difference between the album and David Ortiz? "21st Century Breakdown" is awesome, but David Ortiz sucks. If his recent layoff doesn't create better results, the Red Sox will have plenty of questions to answer about the future of their offense.

Terry Francona elected to give Ortiz four whole days off following his most putrid performance of the 2009 season thus far last Thursday, when the former slugger went 0-for-7 and left a stunning 12 men on base. His season numbers tell the full story: a line of .208/.318/.300, 30 strikeouts in 130 at-bats and exactly zero home runs.

I feel like it's been theorized ad naseum about what exactly is wrong with Big Papi. What we'll discover, beginning with tonight's tilt against Toronto, is if this uber-slump has been because of something mental. I assume the biggest reason behind the hiatus was getting his head straight, and probably also to work on whatever holes exist in his swing.

But I'm skeptical about his problems being purely mental. This is David Ortiz we're talking about. How is it possible that the same guy who has perfomed at historic levels under pressure would fold psychologically during an afternoon contest in Anaheim in mid-May? I also refuse to acknowledge the chatter about steroids because at this time it's completely baseless.

Therefore, it has to be something physical. He dealt with a sore shoulder February, and probably should not have participated in the World Baseball Classic because of it. (I'm not going to blame the WBC for his troubles because whatever effect it had couldn't be this adverse). There has been constant issues with his knees through the last few years, and he missed significant time last season after partially tearing a tendon in his left wrist. He never had surgery on the wrist, and actually performed pretty well upon returning.

His issues at the plate are coming as a result of at least one of these three things, if not a combination of all three. There's no other explanation at this point. The question: If Ortiz really is hurt, why isn't he saying anything about it? Doesn't he realize that by staying out there and hitting so ineffectively that he's simply crushing his team?

Francona, whose undying faith in his players has definitely hurt the Red Sox in the past, will soon make public where the post-layoff Ortiz will bat in the order. I would be surprised if Francona moves Ortiz out of the 3rd spot just because that's what Francona does. And this continuation will definitely hurt the team if Ortiz continues to suck, and the run totals for Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia will drop. Kevin Youkilis will return to the lineup tomorrow, which should help. But J.D. Drew should hit third, with Youkilis fourth and Jason Bay fifth, followed by Ortiz. If this actually happens soon, I'll be shocked.

But how long will the Red Sox allow Ortiz to murder them, regardless of where he hits in the order? Say Ortiz is still homerless in two weeks. The Red Sox will have no choice but to put Papi on the DL. They might have to make up an injury so long as Ortiz is unwilling to admit that he's unhealthy. Either way, they'll need to look for another source of power. Indians like Victor Martinez and Matt LaPorta have already been bandied about, and with the Sox eight-deep in their starting rotation, a deal for a slugger is probable.

Yet, maybe four days off will make all the difference. Maybe Ortiz comes out tonight against Brian Tallet, goes deep twice, and leads the Red Sox to an important victory. Youkilis returns, the starting pitching finds consistency, the bullpen continues to dominate, and the Red Sox overtake the Blue Jays and sit in the AL East driver's seat will into the summer.

It's hard to be optimistic. Big Papi just doesn't seem like the same ballplayer, just three years after belting 54 homers. Unlike Green Day, David Ortiz isn't getting better with age.

Would the Tigers Really Release Mags?

The Tigers entered Wednesday in a virtual tie with the Royals for the best record in the AL Central Division. Miguel Cabrera and Brandon Inge have been hitting well with Edwin Jackson carrying the rotation. This team needed a strong start given the precarious economic condition of their city, and attendance hasn't been too bad so far (hovering around the 21,000-27,000 mark). But they've got one tiny little problem: one of their highest-paid players is performing well below expectations. And they might be forced to pay him even more if they don't cut bait on his contract soon.

Magglio Ordonez has been ice cold in 2009, with three extra-base hits and a pedestrian .634 OPS in 112 at bats this season. He's making a cool $18 million this year with another $18 million due next year should he hit 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in '09. That option has a $3 million buyout, plus there's also the matter of a 2011 option for $15 million with no buyout should he reach the same plateaus in '10.

Jim Leyland has been dropping Mags, 35, down in the order and taking him out of games for defensive replacements of late. Is this an indirect attempt to decrease plate appearances so he won't trigger the $18 million option for next year? 

Or, why won't the Tigers just bite the bullet, release Ordonez and save themselves millions in the process, as has been rumored for some time now? They'd still be on the hook for about $17.5 million this year and the $3 million 2010 buyout. But that's a lot better than owing him an additional $15 million next year and potentially $15 million in 2011. Don't forget, we're talking about an already-declining outfielder who's about to become a full-time DH in his age 36 and 37 seasons with an extensive injury history.

Alright, lets hit the brakes on this one for a second. The Tigers are contending, even surprising in 2009. People are still turning out to the ballpark and summer is fast approaching. Even though Mags has struggled, dumping a player with his track record (after all, he hit .363 only two years ago) would send the wrong message to Detroit fans. 

If they want fans to keep filling up seats, a sure-fire way to divert their attention away would be to say, "Well, we've got a solid club but we're going to send one of our veteran leaders packing for nothing so we can save ourselves $30 million over the next two years. But hey, bleacher seats are only $7! Come on out to Comerica!"

Also, who's to say Ordonez won't turn it around? The season is still young, and he's never hit lower than .282 during any season of his career. Sure, he can't play the field everyday like he used to and will need to DH quite a bit. But isn't that part of the reason why they dumped Sheffield over the spring? He's also averaged 24 homers over the last three seasons. He's not dead yet. If I can talk myself into a David Ortiz turnaround, then surely Mags can do the same.

But that number looms large: $30 million. For an aging slugger. In a town that's short on luck and hope, let alone money. It's a tough call. As long as the club is contending, they have to hang on to Ordonez. But if things go south come July or August, and that 540 PA appears within reach, the Tigers won't have much of a choice. The sensible move will be to move on from Mags.

It's a sad reality that we even have to have this discussion. But as Brandon Flowers sang at Mohegan Sun the other night, this is the world that we live in.

The Strasburg Phenomenon

He's the pitching version of Roy Hobbs. Well, besides the whole "getting shot on a train by a deranged woman" thing, hopefully.

It was confirmed last week that the Washington Nationals will select San Diego State right-hander Stephen Strasburg with the top pick in next month's draft. This might qualify as the least surprising news item of the season thus far.

If you call yourself a baseball fan, and haven't been living under a rock for the past few months, you probably already know a lot about Strasburg. The 6', 4", 220-pound hurler started gaining notoriety last year when he went 8-3 with a 1.57 ERA and 133 Ks in 97.1 innings for Tony Gwynn's Aztecs. He was the only collegiate player selected to play for Team USA in the Beijing Olympics. He chose Scott Boras to be his "adviser," ensuring he meant business about the 2009 draft.

What Strasburg has in his possession is an array of lethal pitches, and the strong physical presence on the mound to go with them, that comes along once in a generation. His fastball consistently tops out at 101 mph, and unlike most pitchers with that kind of velocity, the pitch has late-moving action and his control of it is impeccable. And that's just his four-seamer. His mid-90s two-seamer has a dirty sinking action out of his clean, repeatable delivery. 

Strasburg's slider is only a few mph slower, and usually stays in the low-90s (Randy Johnson and Robb Nen, in their respective primes, are the only guys I can remember to regularly sport sliders in the low-90s). His curveball has apparently hit 88 mph, and darts away from right-handed hitters in a way that seems almost unfair. Here's some highlights of a 23-strikeout performance against Utah last year (remember, kids, you only get 27 outs in a regulation baseball game). 

That set of skills has elicited some of the most astonishing quotes I've ever read from scouts, including those in this terrific SI profile by Lee Jenkins. The consensus: Strasburg is the best pitching prospect to come along since Roger Clemens was lighting it up at Texas, no one is even close to him in the 2009 draft, he's ready to pitch in the big leagues from day one, and he may or may not be the best thing since this. 

That skill set has also produced these eye-popping 2009 spring numbers: 10-0, 1.38 ERA, 147 K, 15 BB in 78.1 IP. Allow me to repeat: he has 147 strikeouts in less than 80 innings this year.

The Jenkins piece illuminates a feel-good story about Strasburg's maturation from an overweight, hot-headed teenager with big talent but little motivation to one of the best prospects ever through hard work and determination. Given how precious and valuable his right arm will be, Gwynn limits Strasburg to one start a week and sensibly to 115 pitches in those starts. The stage appears to be set for the Nats to select Strasburg first, and that's where the real fun will begin.

Over the winter, whispers made the rounds that Boras would seek a record-shattering six-year, $50 million pact from any club willing to draft Strasburg. As Peter Gammons recently delineated, Boras wouldn't really be that far off in that calculation for his worth over the next six years. 

Still, it'd be awfully surprising to see someone who's never pitched a professional inning get $50 million, especially two years after David Price got $8.5 million over in six-year deal with the Rays in addition to a $5.6 million bonus. I have no doubt Strasburg's deal will set records, but just not in that drastic of a way. Instead of six years, I suspect Washington will offer Strasburg three years at around $20 million, with a bonus near $10 million. Boras will wait right to the 11:59 p.m. deadline on August 15, but it'll be in his client's best interest to take that deal.

Although Strasburg's overall talent is undeniable, his staggering college numbers have one potential drawback: they've come while Strasburg has pitched in the Mountain West Conference, which is not considered one of college baseball's premiere conferences. I'd feel much more confident in his abilities had those numbers come in the SEC, ACC or Pac-10. 

And let us not forget the less-than-stellar track record of top pitchers taken in the amateur draft. The most prominent cautionary tale is that of Brien Taylor, drafted #1 overall by the Yankees in 1991. He was similarly lauded as a can't-miss, once-in-a-generation talent, but tore his labrum in a 1993 bar fight and never made it to the Majors. Others like Ben McDonald and Bryan Bullington never lived up the hype, either. 

Strasburg has all the potential in the world and then some, but comparisons to Roger Clemens and visions of dollar signs aren't going to make him a great pro pitcher, not even a good one. I want to believe a kid who throws 101 mph will have a long, productive MLB career, but these stories often end in a malaise of rehab stints and trips to the office of Dr. James Andrews.

However, none of that should dampen what's been a ridiculous spring for Strasburg, one that will soon make him a very rich young man. He can inject life into a moribund franchise and bring people out to the ballpark for an otherwise non-desrcript team. It will be good for the game at large to have someone like Strasburg hit immediate success. 

The Roy Hobbs of pitchers is coming. Don't miss him.

The 800-Pound Gorilla in the Bullpen

(Allow me to preface this post by saying that I can't take full credit for this idea. This was born out of a conversation Sam and I had over the winter, and it's taken some time to develop. But the biggest claim in this post, and it's overall theme about the above closer's future in Boston, came from Sam originally. I'm just enunciating it further here.)

When Jonathan Papelbon hit arbitration this past winter, we knew the dollar figure would probably be pretty high for his 2009 salary. After all, not every closer averages 38 saves with a 1.84 ERA during their first three full professional seasons. The dollar figure wound up being $6.25 million, the third-highest ever for a player in his first year of arbitration.

Like so many other teams, the Red Sox have been trying to lock up their young players to team-friendly extensions that buy out arbitration and at least the first year of free agency. They were successful in the offseason with Dustin Pedroia (6 years, $40.5 million, 2015 option), Jon Lester (5 years, $30 million, 2014 option) and, while not really so "young" anymore at 30, Kevin Youkilis (4 years, $41.25 million, 2013 option). When Papelbon and his agents were approached with a similar package, it didn't exactly go the way the Red Sox envisioned.

Boston's offer was, according to Papelbon, "so far off" that it wasn't even considered. When Jon Heyman hypothetically queried Papelbon if he'd take $10 million a year (which I'm fairly positive is the max the Red Sox would want to pay him right now), he gave a non-answer. He's consistently stated that, as a "gambling man," he wants to go year-to-year as opposed to signing an extension. Papelbon thinks very highly of himself, and believes it's his duty to set the market for closers.

If this holds true, and Papelbon looks to go year-to-year, his 2010 salary will likely be around $10 million, and 2011 could approach $15 million, which is what the game's highest-paid closer, Mariano Rivera, will make this year. If Papelbon duplicates the success of the past three years over the next three, he'll assuredly be rewarded with the biggest contract ever for a closer.

There's no way, with how the Red Sox system of valuation works, that they'll ever pay someone who pitches around 60 innings per year anything close to $15 million, let alone whatever crazy number will come up in a free agent contract. There is simply no way. This leads me to my point, and it's something I haven't heard or read anyone in the mainstream media discuss directly:

Unless Papelbon and his representation drastically change course, there's a more than plausible chance the Red Sox trade their popular, All-Star closer before he hits free agency. The Red Sox won't be the ones giving Papelbon that record-shattering contract, and the return in a trade will be much, much greater than the two draft picks.

Blasphemy? Hardly. I'm not even sure how much the Red Sox actually want Papelbon to sign a long-term deal. His shoulder broke down near the end of the 2006 season, and even though he's done a phenomenal job keeping that shoulder strong since, it's hard to overlook that going forward. If you look at the way he's pitched this year, his efficiency has gone out the window and he's become over-reliant on his fastball. What the hell happened to that awesome splitter, anyway? The results have been good, but all the sudden he's become an adventure to get those results.

For all his hype, and all his success in the postseason, and all his status as the most fun member of team with Manny gone, when I watch him pitch now I have to ask myself: Is this really the guy I want the Red Sox to commit to long-term? Is there ANY closer that deserves the kind of money and years he'll be seeking in negotiations? The answer to both questions is no.

Billy Beane made clear in "Moneyball" his disdain for closers as overvalued, injury-prone commodities that he could trade for what he believed to be more useful pieces. He's included incumbent closers Billy Taylor, Billy Koch and Huston Street in deals to pick up other talent, and then use internal candidates or cheaper free agents as closers. I have no doubt Theo Epstein subscribes to a similar theory, and might get a chance to put it to good use.

Trading Papelbon, while still and his prime and not causing a fuss amongst the clubhouse (which was most of the reason why both Nomar and Manny were shipped out) could go down as one of the most unpopular moves in club history if or when it is made. That is, unless the Sox get something of significant value in return. And I believe teams will be willing to pay top dollar for even just one year of Papelbon's services.

With several key hitters set to become free agents over the next two winters (Mike Lowell and Jason Bay, in particular) the Red Sox will have to think about ways to address those needs. Would the Red Sox be able to acquire a big hitter if they made Papelbon the centerpiece of a deal and threw in one or two other top prospects? I think so. Beane did that with Street last offseason and got Matt Holliday, and Street was coming off his most inconsistent season yet. So you have to like Boston's chances there. What if Albert Pujols, or Ryan Howard, or Prince Fielder were to become available? Wouldn't Papelbon, Lars Anderson and another solid prospect get it done for one of those guys?

I'm getting way ahead of myself. But the reality of this situation is closer than you might think. I highly doubt the Red Sox would ever trade Papelbon during a season, even if he was in a walk year. But the next two winters are distinct possibilities, and I believe the club will entertain offers if no extension is hammered out before arbitration numbers are exchanged.

Again, unless Papelbon changes his tune and becomes more receptive towards a team-friendly extension, the Red Sox would be stupid to just let him walk after six seasons. It won't happen. Besides, there's this closer in Pawtucket who struck out the side on nine pitches the other night. You may have heard of him from somewhere.

And if that kid can dominate in the majors as he has in the minors, well, maybe putting Papelbon on the block won't be so far-fetched.