I've just got a few things to cover here before we say goodbye to 2008:
News broke Sunday night of the Red Sox reaching contract agreements with Brad Penny and Josh Bard on one-year deals. I'm a big fan of both moves, as they help the Sox address needs in a low-cost, high-reward fashion, especially in the case of Penny.
As I mentioned last week, the Sox had been "monitoring" Penny with an eye towards bringing him aboard for 2009. He threw only 94 innings last year and dealt with shoulder and elbow pain all along. Penny had several other suitors for his services, but in the end decided to come to Boston because he wants to win.
Penny was coming off excellent back-to-back seasons for the Dodgers, going 32-13 with a 3.64 ERA in 397 innings between 2006 and 2007. After the arm issues, and some problems with LA management, Penny's 2009 option was declined, and now he finds himself coming to Boston for $5 million plus $3 million in potential incentives based on innings pitched.
We've seen the Red Sox take on these types of pitchers before. In 2005, they gave $1.5 million to Wade Miller, and he did admirably in around 100 innings. Last year, they brought in Bartolo Colon on a minor league deal, and when he wasn't breaking the record for most pulled muscles in a single game in Philly, he pitched pretty well.
But the Red Sox are making a more significant investment in Penny than those others, at least in terms of actual dollars. They certainly feel if even relatively healthy Penny could be more than just a No. 5 starter. It also won't preclude them from going after other starters like Ben Sheets or Kenshin Kawakami because they won't know what they have with Penny until spring training.
In short, the Red Sox could be getting a lot for very little, and I like Penny's chances to make 20-25 starts and really contribute significantly to the '09 Red Sox. If not, at least they won't have paid him as much as they paid Curt Schilling to sit out the '08 season.
You may remember Josh Bard as the poor kid charged with catching Tim Wakefield at the outset of the 2006 season, but he just couldn't hang on to Wake's knucklers, and was traded to San Diego in one of the worst deals of the Theo Epstein era. Bard split time behind the dish with Mike Piazza and astonishingly hit .338 with a .943 OPS in 93 games for the Padres. He was also the Padres' primary catcher in 2007 but ran into some injury/ineffectiveness problems last year, batting just .202 and catching only 49 games.
With the catching market so thin, and Kevin Cash gone to the Yankees, the Sox must have felt some urgency to at least have one catcher under their control with significant major league experience. That's what they have now in Bard, whose one-year, $1.6 million contract is not guaranteed, certainly a rarity in major league contracts today. Again, I have to say I'm a big fan of the move.
There's no doubt the Red Sox still want Jason Varitek back. He's the team captain, he knows the pitchers in and out, he still plays terrific defense and it's awfully hard to see this club without him. I am still yet to hear definitively that a team besides Boston has any interest in Varitek. Scott Boras must face the facts: at this point, Varitek only has value to the Red Sox, and no team is willing to give up their first-round pick to sign a catcher who struck out 122 times in 423 ABs last year (I'm beginning to sound like a broken record here).
So if Varitek wants to play next year it will have to be with the Red Sox. By signing Bard, the Red Sox now gain more leverage in negotiations with Boras. They can say they've got a guy capable of being a primary catcher, and they can still sign someone like Gregg Zaun, Toby Hall or Johnny Estrada to split time with Bard. So either Boras can let his client continue to wait for a job somewhere that is highly unlikely to materialize, or he can return to Boston for something much closer to Boston's price. That could still be a two-year deal, but probably not for the $10 million AAV he got in his least deal. It's also possible Boras could wind up looking bad for not accepting arbitration for Varitek.
So what exactly Bard's role will be for Boston next year is unknown until they get another catcher. We know Bard can't catch Wakefield, and I've heard the Red Sox may ask Varitek to catch Wake as he did from 1998-2000 if he were to return. My guess is that if Varitek does sign, he will probably receive more time off in 2009 than he has in the past, and the Red Sox will continue to look via trade for his long-term replacement (Saltalamacchia, Montero, Clement, et al). We'll see where the Varitek talks go from here.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Saturday, December 27, 2008
A Pitcher's Market, Part II
Let's continue our look at the free agent starters still available as we head into the new year...
Oliver Perez - Age: 27 - 2008 salary: $6.5 million
Scott Boras would like you to believe Perez is one of the five best left-handed pitchers in all of baseball, but like most of what Boras says, that's crap. Perez was around average last season, only managing a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 194 innings. But he's young, one of the youngest of all free agent starters this offseason, and he has shown flashes of greatness dating back to his debut with the Padres in 2000. The Mets want Perez back, but the price they're willing to pay is not yet known. Boras will try to push for five years, but again, this isn't the kind of winter where teams not named the Yankees are able to dish out that kind of contract length for far from sure-things. I can't see Perez leaving the NL, but if an AL team came calling with something close to what Boras is demanding, they might have to jump on it. I suspect the Mets might be better off with Jon Garland anyway.
Andy Pettitte - Age: 36 - 2008 salary: $16 million
It's been a great career for Pettitte. He was an integral part of every Yankees' team that made it to a World Series during these past two decades. He went to Houston, close to his Louisiana home, and helped them get to a World Series. Even though he was implicated in baseball's various steroid scandals, he was one of few stars to admit HGH use, and escaped that particular scandal because everyone made Roger Clemens out to be the real villain. Pettitte's had two solid seasons back with the Yankees, and they have a $10 million offer out for Pettitte to return as their 2009 fifth starter. They now seem more willing to go with Phil Hughes following the Teixeira signing, but there's still a chance it happens. Should the offer be pulled, it's safe to say Pettitte will consider joining rotation-mate Mike Mussina in retirement. The Astros probably don't have the money Pettitte would want at this point.
Ben Sheets - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $12.125 million
Has anyone been more frustrating to fantasy owners over the years than Ben Sheets? He always appears so tantalizing, because everyone knows his stuff is still at its 2004 level, when a 25-year-old Sheets struck out 264 batters with a 2.70 ERA and a microscopic 0.98 WHIP in 237 innings. In 2008, Sheets came within two innings of throwing 200 for the first time since that magical '04 season, but an elbow injury crept up at the worst possible time. He tried to gut through it, but was abysmal in a nationally-televised start against the Cubs during the last weekend of the season. That injury likely cost Sheets millions this winter. The Yankees had been linked to Sheets during the winter meetings, but recent rumblings have the Rangers preparing to make a run. Jon Daniels says there's been no offer, but there has been contact between the two parties. It's predictable for the Rangers to go after a pitcher like Sheets, and but if Sheets wants to live up to his potential he sure as hell won't do it playing in Arlington. If the Red Sox are feeling more ambitious than just going after Brad Penny, I don't see why it would hurt to make a play for Sheets. They could give him two years at around $14-$15 million annually and see what happens. Again, it's a tough winter for a guy like Sheets to be a free agent. If anyone gives him more than two guaranteed years, I'll be surprised.
More tomorrow.
Oliver Perez - Age: 27 - 2008 salary: $6.5 million
Scott Boras would like you to believe Perez is one of the five best left-handed pitchers in all of baseball, but like most of what Boras says, that's crap. Perez was around average last season, only managing a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 194 innings. But he's young, one of the youngest of all free agent starters this offseason, and he has shown flashes of greatness dating back to his debut with the Padres in 2000. The Mets want Perez back, but the price they're willing to pay is not yet known. Boras will try to push for five years, but again, this isn't the kind of winter where teams not named the Yankees are able to dish out that kind of contract length for far from sure-things. I can't see Perez leaving the NL, but if an AL team came calling with something close to what Boras is demanding, they might have to jump on it. I suspect the Mets might be better off with Jon Garland anyway.
Andy Pettitte - Age: 36 - 2008 salary: $16 million
It's been a great career for Pettitte. He was an integral part of every Yankees' team that made it to a World Series during these past two decades. He went to Houston, close to his Louisiana home, and helped them get to a World Series. Even though he was implicated in baseball's various steroid scandals, he was one of few stars to admit HGH use, and escaped that particular scandal because everyone made Roger Clemens out to be the real villain. Pettitte's had two solid seasons back with the Yankees, and they have a $10 million offer out for Pettitte to return as their 2009 fifth starter. They now seem more willing to go with Phil Hughes following the Teixeira signing, but there's still a chance it happens. Should the offer be pulled, it's safe to say Pettitte will consider joining rotation-mate Mike Mussina in retirement. The Astros probably don't have the money Pettitte would want at this point.
Ben Sheets - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $12.125 million
Has anyone been more frustrating to fantasy owners over the years than Ben Sheets? He always appears so tantalizing, because everyone knows his stuff is still at its 2004 level, when a 25-year-old Sheets struck out 264 batters with a 2.70 ERA and a microscopic 0.98 WHIP in 237 innings. In 2008, Sheets came within two innings of throwing 200 for the first time since that magical '04 season, but an elbow injury crept up at the worst possible time. He tried to gut through it, but was abysmal in a nationally-televised start against the Cubs during the last weekend of the season. That injury likely cost Sheets millions this winter. The Yankees had been linked to Sheets during the winter meetings, but recent rumblings have the Rangers preparing to make a run. Jon Daniels says there's been no offer, but there has been contact between the two parties. It's predictable for the Rangers to go after a pitcher like Sheets, and but if Sheets wants to live up to his potential he sure as hell won't do it playing in Arlington. If the Red Sox are feeling more ambitious than just going after Brad Penny, I don't see why it would hurt to make a play for Sheets. They could give him two years at around $14-$15 million annually and see what happens. Again, it's a tough winter for a guy like Sheets to be a free agent. If anyone gives him more than two guaranteed years, I'll be surprised.
More tomorrow.
A Pitcher's Market, Part I
On the heels of Randy Johnson's new one-year pact with the Giants, let's take a look at some of the many options remaining in the free agent pitching market. As I mentioned yesterday, there's been very little movement in the overall market but especially with starting pitchers, where only CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett have signed out of all the top-tier candidates. Here we go:
Jon Garland - Age: 29 - 2008 salary: $12 million
Garland is coming off his seventh consecutive season with over 190 innings under his belt. He'd probably be in line for a deal like Carlos Silva's or Gil Meche's or even better in any other year. Unfortunately for Garland, the best he'll probably be able to do in 2009 is a three-year pact with an option for a fourth with an average right around his $12 million 2008 salary. Deep in this Heyman article (with a headline that makes me grit my teeth) is mention that the Dodgers, White Sox, and Mets are options for Garland, and Heyman also makes the excellent point that Garland is "two years younger than Burnett with a better lifetime record (106-89)." I believe Garland could trive in the National League as a potential No. 2 starter. Should the Mets lose out on one of Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez, I see them making a play for Garland, and I doubt they'll be disappointed with the outcome.
Braden Looper - Age: 34 - 2008 salary: $5.5 million
Looper has been solid in two seasons as a starter for the Cardinals, and he's looking for a multi-year deal heading into 2009. The team most interested in his services appears to be the Brewers, but nothing is likely to get done until after the New Year. A nice two- or three-year deal could be in the works, and the Brewers need all the help they can get after losing Sabathia and potentially Ben Sheets.
Derek Lowe - Age: 35 - 2008 salary: $10 million
There's no question that Lowe is one of a select few free agents the Red Sox have let go in recent years that done very, very well in a different uniform. Lowe was consistently excellent for four years in Dodger Blue, his ERA never getting higher than 3.88 and his IP never getting lower than 199. He's still got that great sinking fastball, and he's one of few starting pitchers in this market likely to get four years, despite his age. The Mets are reportedly deep in negotiations with Lowe, but nothing his imminent, according to Omar Minaya. I've heard the Red Sox are maintaining contact with Lowe, and Lowe would love to come back to Boston, but I'd be surprised if that's the rout the Sox go. Lowe's numbers came while playing in the weakest-hitting division in baseball, and teams must be aware of that while courting him. I expect Lowe to wind up with the Mets on a four-year deal that will pay him around $15-$16 million per year, slightly less than Burnett's deal with the Yankees.
Brad Penny - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $9.25 million.
Penny only made 17 starts in 2008 while dealing with constant pain in his right shoulder. There's been durability issues with Penny throughout his career, and he's only thrown 200 innings twice. Still, Penny is only a year removed from finishing 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting, and the talent has always been there. The Red Sox were said to be "monitoring" Penny at the beginning of the offseason, and his name has come up constantly as a possibility for that fifth slot in their rotation. I personally would love to see Boston take a flier on Penny and see what happens. He would not cost a lot in money and years. I'm sure plenty of other teams have interest as well.
More to come.
Jon Garland - Age: 29 - 2008 salary: $12 million
Garland is coming off his seventh consecutive season with over 190 innings under his belt. He'd probably be in line for a deal like Carlos Silva's or Gil Meche's or even better in any other year. Unfortunately for Garland, the best he'll probably be able to do in 2009 is a three-year pact with an option for a fourth with an average right around his $12 million 2008 salary. Deep in this Heyman article (with a headline that makes me grit my teeth) is mention that the Dodgers, White Sox, and Mets are options for Garland, and Heyman also makes the excellent point that Garland is "two years younger than Burnett with a better lifetime record (106-89)." I believe Garland could trive in the National League as a potential No. 2 starter. Should the Mets lose out on one of Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez, I see them making a play for Garland, and I doubt they'll be disappointed with the outcome.
Braden Looper - Age: 34 - 2008 salary: $5.5 million
Looper has been solid in two seasons as a starter for the Cardinals, and he's looking for a multi-year deal heading into 2009. The team most interested in his services appears to be the Brewers, but nothing is likely to get done until after the New Year. A nice two- or three-year deal could be in the works, and the Brewers need all the help they can get after losing Sabathia and potentially Ben Sheets.
Derek Lowe - Age: 35 - 2008 salary: $10 million
There's no question that Lowe is one of a select few free agents the Red Sox have let go in recent years that done very, very well in a different uniform. Lowe was consistently excellent for four years in Dodger Blue, his ERA never getting higher than 3.88 and his IP never getting lower than 199. He's still got that great sinking fastball, and he's one of few starting pitchers in this market likely to get four years, despite his age. The Mets are reportedly deep in negotiations with Lowe, but nothing his imminent, according to Omar Minaya. I've heard the Red Sox are maintaining contact with Lowe, and Lowe would love to come back to Boston, but I'd be surprised if that's the rout the Sox go. Lowe's numbers came while playing in the weakest-hitting division in baseball, and teams must be aware of that while courting him. I expect Lowe to wind up with the Mets on a four-year deal that will pay him around $15-$16 million per year, slightly less than Burnett's deal with the Yankees.
Brad Penny - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $9.25 million.
Penny only made 17 starts in 2008 while dealing with constant pain in his right shoulder. There's been durability issues with Penny throughout his career, and he's only thrown 200 innings twice. Still, Penny is only a year removed from finishing 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting, and the talent has always been there. The Red Sox were said to be "monitoring" Penny at the beginning of the offseason, and his name has come up constantly as a possibility for that fifth slot in their rotation. I personally would love to see Boston take a flier on Penny and see what happens. He would not cost a lot in money and years. I'm sure plenty of other teams have interest as well.
More to come.
Friday, December 26, 2008
I'm Back...
I'm home for winter break, and I promised myself I'd write more as a result. To update you about my life, I just had perhaps the most fun three months of my college years, working for an amazing school newspaper, getting to cover the two best teams at UNH, meeting tons of new people and making lifelong friendships as a result. I have concluded taking classes and after this brief respite, I'll be doing my UNH journalism internship at the Daily News of Newburyport on the North Shore. My work will be varied and interesting, and hopefully I'll get to cover some high school baseball after the snow melts. Then in May I will get that diploma, and in these uncertain times, we all have to hope for the best when it comes to getting jobs. But that's in the future. Right now, I'm just trying to relax for these few weeks before beginning my life in the work force.
I did get a chance to write about baseball during my tenure at TNH, including this Red Sox post-mordem that would have fit perfectly here at JBB. Take a look if you want to recall the pain of the end of the 2008 season. I know, I'm so good at marketing myself.
Let's head right into the big news of this week, that being the revelation the New York Yankees have pockets deeper than the Mariana Trench. They swooped in at the very last second to sign the crowned jewel of the free agent season, Mark Teixeira, to an eight-year deal worth a reported $180 million. This comes a few short weeks after the Bombers came to agreements with stud free agent arms CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett for $161 million and $82.5 million, respectively. So while the Yankees have committed $423.5 million to their future this offseason, no other team has made what you'd call just a "splash" in the most timid baseball winter in recent history.
The Red Sox, in particular Theo Epstein, were enamored with Teixeira, and badly wanted to sign the slugging first baseman not just for next year but to be their mid-lineup stalwart for several years to come. But they only wanted to sign him for their price, and their reported final offer for Tex was $12 million short of what the Yankees will give him.
When Epstein, Larry Lucchino and John Henry flew to Texas to meet with Teixeira and his agent Scott Boras, I was fairly confident the latter two would be joining the former three on their way back to Boston. Of course, this wasn't the case. Boras played his typical game, telling the Sox he had much bigger offers on the table for Teixeira, and Henry chose to call his bluff by publicly proclaiming the Red Sox would "not be a factor" in the bidding for Teixeira's services.
I felt like the major media outlets got it all wrong when they claimed the next day that the Red Sox were out of running entirely for Teixeira. The wording of Henry's statement did not close the door at all. But maybe in the end they were right. I wonder if Teixeira was put off by the often off-putting duo of Lucchino and Henry, and instructed his agent to do whatever it took to get him into pinstripes.
Until Tuesday, it didn't seem like the Yankees were really seriously considering signing Teixeira. They'd already brought on two huge contracts this winter, traded for Nick Swisher, and their glut of corner outfield/first base/DH types seemed to keep them out of the running. Well, looking back, it's clear they wanted Teixiera all along, and were willing to wait for all the other offers to come in just so they could trump them by about $10 million or so. The Nationals may have had the biggest offer on the table, but there was no reason to believe Teixeira, who wanted to play for a winner, that he'd actually sign with either his hometown Orioles or Washington.
There's still a lot we don't know. Murray Chass (who somehow has a blog even though he remembers the McKinley Administration) believes Teixeira and his wife didn't want to live in Boston, and chose New York instead. This might be true, and if so it makes me feel better about the situation. But I can't help but feel for a measly (to the Sox) $2-$3 million more per year, they might have been able to convince the Teixeiras to set aside their reservations about Boston. Then again, maybe it was Teixeira's desire all along to play for New York, and the Yankees' interest was stoked as soon as that fact became apparent to them. Maybe the Red Sox never really wanted Tex as much as what had been reported all winter. It's hard to say right now.
The Red Sox are not screwed for the 2009 season because of this. They will cross their fingers and hope Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, and J.D. Drew have fully healthy seasons, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis replicate their 2008 successes, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia become the game's best 1-2 punch. Signing Teixeira would have taken a considerable amount of pressure off all those players, and Lowell would have been playing at a different address. I've heard Lowell felt betrayed by all the Teixeira talk, which is unfortunate considering Lowell is probably the best guy in baseball and doesn't deserve to be jerked around like this. Hopefully this will motivate him to come back stronger than ever from hip surgery. Also, Youkilis will likely be the everyday cleanup hitter for the Sox, a role he seemed to thrive in down the stretch and in the playoffs. If they want a bona fide mid-lineup star, they will have to wait until next offseason to go after Matt Holliday, or maybe Albert Pujols in two years.
Don't get any ideas in your head that the Sox might go after Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, or Bobby Abreu. They were either going to sign Teixeira or have a relatively quiet offseason as far as signing free agents. This article by Sean McAdam points out how futile the Red Sox view the free agent market. The current Red Sox administration will never spend half a billion dollars on free agents in one offseason, and it's hard not to respect them for that. Epstein refuses to get into bidding wars with his rivals, and he won't let the Yankees dictate his own moves the way Dan Duquette and Lou Gorman did.
The Sox need to focus now on their catching situation after the Yankees pilfered Kevin Cash the same day they yanked Tex off the market. Boras is having a tough time shopping Jason Varitek to other teams, mostly because the Red Sox offered Tek arbitration and no team wants to give up their first round pick for a soon-to-be 37-year-old oft-injured catcher who sported a .672 OPS last year. Conventional wisdom would say Varitek comes back to the Red Sox on a two-year deal that will pay him around his $10 million salary from last year. Because neither party has much of an option elsewhere, this should be the way it goes down. Needless to say, Boras is a slippery fuck. So anything can happen.
That's all I've got for today. I'll be back soon with thoughts on the still-vast free agent pitching market, and how frugal teams like Boston, Tampa, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Arizona could come up with some big bargains by waiting. I hope everyone had a good Christmas.
I did get a chance to write about baseball during my tenure at TNH, including this Red Sox post-mordem that would have fit perfectly here at JBB. Take a look if you want to recall the pain of the end of the 2008 season. I know, I'm so good at marketing myself.
Let's head right into the big news of this week, that being the revelation the New York Yankees have pockets deeper than the Mariana Trench. They swooped in at the very last second to sign the crowned jewel of the free agent season, Mark Teixeira, to an eight-year deal worth a reported $180 million. This comes a few short weeks after the Bombers came to agreements with stud free agent arms CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett for $161 million and $82.5 million, respectively. So while the Yankees have committed $423.5 million to their future this offseason, no other team has made what you'd call just a "splash" in the most timid baseball winter in recent history.
The Red Sox, in particular Theo Epstein, were enamored with Teixeira, and badly wanted to sign the slugging first baseman not just for next year but to be their mid-lineup stalwart for several years to come. But they only wanted to sign him for their price, and their reported final offer for Tex was $12 million short of what the Yankees will give him.
When Epstein, Larry Lucchino and John Henry flew to Texas to meet with Teixeira and his agent Scott Boras, I was fairly confident the latter two would be joining the former three on their way back to Boston. Of course, this wasn't the case. Boras played his typical game, telling the Sox he had much bigger offers on the table for Teixeira, and Henry chose to call his bluff by publicly proclaiming the Red Sox would "not be a factor" in the bidding for Teixeira's services.
I felt like the major media outlets got it all wrong when they claimed the next day that the Red Sox were out of running entirely for Teixeira. The wording of Henry's statement did not close the door at all. But maybe in the end they were right. I wonder if Teixeira was put off by the often off-putting duo of Lucchino and Henry, and instructed his agent to do whatever it took to get him into pinstripes.
Until Tuesday, it didn't seem like the Yankees were really seriously considering signing Teixeira. They'd already brought on two huge contracts this winter, traded for Nick Swisher, and their glut of corner outfield/first base/DH types seemed to keep them out of the running. Well, looking back, it's clear they wanted Teixiera all along, and were willing to wait for all the other offers to come in just so they could trump them by about $10 million or so. The Nationals may have had the biggest offer on the table, but there was no reason to believe Teixeira, who wanted to play for a winner, that he'd actually sign with either his hometown Orioles or Washington.
There's still a lot we don't know. Murray Chass (who somehow has a blog even though he remembers the McKinley Administration) believes Teixeira and his wife didn't want to live in Boston, and chose New York instead. This might be true, and if so it makes me feel better about the situation. But I can't help but feel for a measly (to the Sox) $2-$3 million more per year, they might have been able to convince the Teixeiras to set aside their reservations about Boston. Then again, maybe it was Teixeira's desire all along to play for New York, and the Yankees' interest was stoked as soon as that fact became apparent to them. Maybe the Red Sox never really wanted Tex as much as what had been reported all winter. It's hard to say right now.
The Red Sox are not screwed for the 2009 season because of this. They will cross their fingers and hope Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, and J.D. Drew have fully healthy seasons, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis replicate their 2008 successes, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia become the game's best 1-2 punch. Signing Teixeira would have taken a considerable amount of pressure off all those players, and Lowell would have been playing at a different address. I've heard Lowell felt betrayed by all the Teixeira talk, which is unfortunate considering Lowell is probably the best guy in baseball and doesn't deserve to be jerked around like this. Hopefully this will motivate him to come back stronger than ever from hip surgery. Also, Youkilis will likely be the everyday cleanup hitter for the Sox, a role he seemed to thrive in down the stretch and in the playoffs. If they want a bona fide mid-lineup star, they will have to wait until next offseason to go after Matt Holliday, or maybe Albert Pujols in two years.
Don't get any ideas in your head that the Sox might go after Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, or Bobby Abreu. They were either going to sign Teixeira or have a relatively quiet offseason as far as signing free agents. This article by Sean McAdam points out how futile the Red Sox view the free agent market. The current Red Sox administration will never spend half a billion dollars on free agents in one offseason, and it's hard not to respect them for that. Epstein refuses to get into bidding wars with his rivals, and he won't let the Yankees dictate his own moves the way Dan Duquette and Lou Gorman did.
The Sox need to focus now on their catching situation after the Yankees pilfered Kevin Cash the same day they yanked Tex off the market. Boras is having a tough time shopping Jason Varitek to other teams, mostly because the Red Sox offered Tek arbitration and no team wants to give up their first round pick for a soon-to-be 37-year-old oft-injured catcher who sported a .672 OPS last year. Conventional wisdom would say Varitek comes back to the Red Sox on a two-year deal that will pay him around his $10 million salary from last year. Because neither party has much of an option elsewhere, this should be the way it goes down. Needless to say, Boras is a slippery fuck. So anything can happen.
That's all I've got for today. I'll be back soon with thoughts on the still-vast free agent pitching market, and how frugal teams like Boston, Tampa, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Arizona could come up with some big bargains by waiting. I hope everyone had a good Christmas.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
LCS Previews
The NLCS will commence in Philadelphia Thursday night, so I figured I would get on here and give my brief previews for that series and the ALCS set to kick off Friday in St. Petersburg. There's a ton of intrigue involved in both matchups, and I'm happy that all four teams remaining are excellent clubs and are all conceivably good enough to win the World Series. I'll start out with the National League:
Dodgers v. Phillies: Both clubs defeated NL Central foes, with the Dodgers completing a sweep against the Cubs and Philly taking four games to dispatch Milwaukee. Each team has balance on offense, terrific starters and a deep, strong bullpen. For LA it's their first NLCS in 20 years and for the Phillies it's been 15. They've both had good teams in the interim years but never could quite get over the top. Now they'll vie for a chance to be the NL representative in the Fall Classic.
I wrote in my last post here that LA feels like the Team of Destiny in 2008. Their tight win in Game 3 in front of the LA fans only adds to my feeling on this. To make the Cubs, the best NL club during the regular season, look as poorly as they did in the NLDS is remarkable. They have this Red Sox-esque mix of veterans and young players (I don't have to tell you that some of those guys WERE Red Sox at one point) that works very well for the personality of the club. Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Derek Lowe and Juan Pierre and well-complimented by the likes of Matt Kemp, James Loney, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin, Blake DeWitt, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathon Broxton. They've got an energy and feel about them great playoff teams always possess. And it doesn't hurt that Joe Torre is at the helm. He's been through a few of these before himself.
As for Philly, their pitching carried them through the Milwaukee series with strong outings in each of the four contests. Cole Hamels has emerged as a bonafide ace for this club, and if they can continue to get strong outings from Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer this series may go the distance. Of course, the Phillies offense is nothing to sneeze at as well, with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell anchoring the lineup.
Interestingly enough, I watched these teams lock up for a Saturday game in Philadelphia in late August. It was the 2nd game of an eventual series sweep for the Phillies, with Cole Hamels dominating and Clayton Kershaw looking very much like a 20-year-old. What got me about this game was the middle of the Dodgers' order, with Manny hitting cleanup and playing left, with Nomar hitting 5th at shortstop. It felt like 2002 all over again.
Anyway, I could see Hamels going out and knocking the Dodgers off their momentum somewhat by taking the first game. After that, however, I see this series as all Dodgers. If they can take Game 2 in Philly I feel very confident they'll win all three games at LA. This is their year to make it to the World Series. It pains me to predict this because no town needs a title of any kind more than Philly. They have a good team, and maybe this group will win the first major sports title for Philadelphia since 1983. But I just feel like it's not their year.
Red Sox v. Rays: I figured there was a very good chance this could have been the 2010 or 2012 ALCS matchup. But never did I think coming into this year that it could be the 2008 ALCS matchup. I'm still having a tough time taking these Rays seriously. I mean, they're the freaking Rays, aren't they? Imagine the Clippers and Lakers playing for the Western Conference title, or the Blue Jackets taking on the Red Wings for a chance to play for the Stanley Cup. It's just not right. The Rays shouldn't be here. Not now. Not while the Red Sox are still the best franchise in baseball.
But here they are. They took care of the White Sox, despite my best gut feelings. I should have known better, considering the one-dimensional nature of Chicago's club. They've done it with James Shields and Scott Kazmir at the top of their rotation, but I have every reason to believe the rest of their starts won't pan out when the pressure is on in Fenway. The idea of Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine having success in Boston in October might be the biggest "I'll believe it when I see it" scenario I've had in a long time. I almost feel like Joe Maddon is pulling a fast one on us with Sonnanstine and he's really going to start David Price in that game. I mean, really? The guy's got a #1 overall pick with an electric left arm just sitting out in the bullpen and he's going to start Andy Freakin' Sonnanstine over him? Something smells here.
Tampa's offense performed well against Chicago and their success against Boston pitching during the year will give them confidence going in. I do wonder about their bullpen, I'm not sure I would trust Dan Wheeler to close out a playoff game with 39,000 Sox fans screaming for his head. (That scenario is applicable to games in both Tampa and Boston). I once had an away message that said: "The three things in the world that I love most: Hot girls, sandwiches, and the Tampa Bay bullpen." I figured that if I was hanging out with hot girls, while downing a steak and cheese, while watching Tampa's parade of 21-year-old-shouldn't-be-in-the-majors-deer-in-the-headlights relievers pitch blow leads against the Red Sox, I'd be in heaven. I'm not sure where I'm going so I'll stop.
This provides a nice segue into my feelings on the Red Sox heading into this series. I have never been prouder of a Red Sox team than I was surrounding this past series against the Angels. I mean that. They played their asses off to win the first two games in LA. They had many opportunties to end the series in Game 3 but couldn't capitalize. They could have withered away in Game 4 after the Masterson Cross-up (which is what that play would have been called for ever if they'd lost that game and eventually the series in LA), but they played tough, and won an incredible game to advance to the ALCS.
There's no question that on paper the Angels were the better team, but they killed themselves with careless mistakes and couldn't make the best of opportunities like the Red Sox did. Erick Aybar's inability to execute a squeeze bunt in that key spot, given the emphasis that Mike Scioscia's clubs put on fundamentals, may have been the biggest surprise of the entire 2008 postseason thus far.
The Sox will miss Mike Lowell dearly. They are a weaker team without him on the field. But Mark Kotsay proved the other night that he can play first base with the best of them, and his scorcher down the line in the 9th should have been the winning hit of Game 4. We know Youk can play a mean 3rd base. And with new, emerging leaders like Jed Lowrie and Jason Bay, I feel more confident than ever about this team's ability to win.
My biggest concern going forward is the bullpen, and in particular, the ability of Jonathon Papelbon to bounce back on a day-to-day basis for the rest of the playoffs. I'm confident he will, simply because he's Papelbon, and it's the playoffs. By the way, if you missed his antics after the series clincher Monday night, then I feel bad for you. There is no one on earth like this guy, and we're so lucky to have him around.
Anyway, I have a lot of confidence the Red Sox will be able to capitalize on the youth and inexperience of the Rays in this ALCS. It should be fun to watch the pseudo-home crowd in Tampa, and like the other LCS, I feel if the Sox can take one game in Tampa this series might not get back there for Game 6. Then we'd have the Dodgers-Red Sox match up everyone's been dreaming about.
Of course, that scenario of intrigue almost never happens (see 2003). For the sake of the game, I hope it does.
Dodgers v. Phillies: Both clubs defeated NL Central foes, with the Dodgers completing a sweep against the Cubs and Philly taking four games to dispatch Milwaukee. Each team has balance on offense, terrific starters and a deep, strong bullpen. For LA it's their first NLCS in 20 years and for the Phillies it's been 15. They've both had good teams in the interim years but never could quite get over the top. Now they'll vie for a chance to be the NL representative in the Fall Classic.
I wrote in my last post here that LA feels like the Team of Destiny in 2008. Their tight win in Game 3 in front of the LA fans only adds to my feeling on this. To make the Cubs, the best NL club during the regular season, look as poorly as they did in the NLDS is remarkable. They have this Red Sox-esque mix of veterans and young players (I don't have to tell you that some of those guys WERE Red Sox at one point) that works very well for the personality of the club. Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Derek Lowe and Juan Pierre and well-complimented by the likes of Matt Kemp, James Loney, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin, Blake DeWitt, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathon Broxton. They've got an energy and feel about them great playoff teams always possess. And it doesn't hurt that Joe Torre is at the helm. He's been through a few of these before himself.
As for Philly, their pitching carried them through the Milwaukee series with strong outings in each of the four contests. Cole Hamels has emerged as a bonafide ace for this club, and if they can continue to get strong outings from Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer this series may go the distance. Of course, the Phillies offense is nothing to sneeze at as well, with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell anchoring the lineup.
Interestingly enough, I watched these teams lock up for a Saturday game in Philadelphia in late August. It was the 2nd game of an eventual series sweep for the Phillies, with Cole Hamels dominating and Clayton Kershaw looking very much like a 20-year-old. What got me about this game was the middle of the Dodgers' order, with Manny hitting cleanup and playing left, with Nomar hitting 5th at shortstop. It felt like 2002 all over again.
Anyway, I could see Hamels going out and knocking the Dodgers off their momentum somewhat by taking the first game. After that, however, I see this series as all Dodgers. If they can take Game 2 in Philly I feel very confident they'll win all three games at LA. This is their year to make it to the World Series. It pains me to predict this because no town needs a title of any kind more than Philly. They have a good team, and maybe this group will win the first major sports title for Philadelphia since 1983. But I just feel like it's not their year.
Red Sox v. Rays: I figured there was a very good chance this could have been the 2010 or 2012 ALCS matchup. But never did I think coming into this year that it could be the 2008 ALCS matchup. I'm still having a tough time taking these Rays seriously. I mean, they're the freaking Rays, aren't they? Imagine the Clippers and Lakers playing for the Western Conference title, or the Blue Jackets taking on the Red Wings for a chance to play for the Stanley Cup. It's just not right. The Rays shouldn't be here. Not now. Not while the Red Sox are still the best franchise in baseball.
But here they are. They took care of the White Sox, despite my best gut feelings. I should have known better, considering the one-dimensional nature of Chicago's club. They've done it with James Shields and Scott Kazmir at the top of their rotation, but I have every reason to believe the rest of their starts won't pan out when the pressure is on in Fenway. The idea of Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine having success in Boston in October might be the biggest "I'll believe it when I see it" scenario I've had in a long time. I almost feel like Joe Maddon is pulling a fast one on us with Sonnanstine and he's really going to start David Price in that game. I mean, really? The guy's got a #1 overall pick with an electric left arm just sitting out in the bullpen and he's going to start Andy Freakin' Sonnanstine over him? Something smells here.
Tampa's offense performed well against Chicago and their success against Boston pitching during the year will give them confidence going in. I do wonder about their bullpen, I'm not sure I would trust Dan Wheeler to close out a playoff game with 39,000 Sox fans screaming for his head. (That scenario is applicable to games in both Tampa and Boston). I once had an away message that said: "The three things in the world that I love most: Hot girls, sandwiches, and the Tampa Bay bullpen." I figured that if I was hanging out with hot girls, while downing a steak and cheese, while watching Tampa's parade of 21-year-old-shouldn't-be-in-the-majors-deer-in-the-headlights relievers pitch blow leads against the Red Sox, I'd be in heaven. I'm not sure where I'm going so I'll stop.
This provides a nice segue into my feelings on the Red Sox heading into this series. I have never been prouder of a Red Sox team than I was surrounding this past series against the Angels. I mean that. They played their asses off to win the first two games in LA. They had many opportunties to end the series in Game 3 but couldn't capitalize. They could have withered away in Game 4 after the Masterson Cross-up (which is what that play would have been called for ever if they'd lost that game and eventually the series in LA), but they played tough, and won an incredible game to advance to the ALCS.
There's no question that on paper the Angels were the better team, but they killed themselves with careless mistakes and couldn't make the best of opportunities like the Red Sox did. Erick Aybar's inability to execute a squeeze bunt in that key spot, given the emphasis that Mike Scioscia's clubs put on fundamentals, may have been the biggest surprise of the entire 2008 postseason thus far.
The Sox will miss Mike Lowell dearly. They are a weaker team without him on the field. But Mark Kotsay proved the other night that he can play first base with the best of them, and his scorcher down the line in the 9th should have been the winning hit of Game 4. We know Youk can play a mean 3rd base. And with new, emerging leaders like Jed Lowrie and Jason Bay, I feel more confident than ever about this team's ability to win.
My biggest concern going forward is the bullpen, and in particular, the ability of Jonathon Papelbon to bounce back on a day-to-day basis for the rest of the playoffs. I'm confident he will, simply because he's Papelbon, and it's the playoffs. By the way, if you missed his antics after the series clincher Monday night, then I feel bad for you. There is no one on earth like this guy, and we're so lucky to have him around.
Anyway, I have a lot of confidence the Red Sox will be able to capitalize on the youth and inexperience of the Rays in this ALCS. It should be fun to watch the pseudo-home crowd in Tampa, and like the other LCS, I feel if the Sox can take one game in Tampa this series might not get back there for Game 6. Then we'd have the Dodgers-Red Sox match up everyone's been dreaming about.
Of course, that scenario of intrigue almost never happens (see 2003). For the sake of the game, I hope it does.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Remember When I Used to Write About Baseball?
I have to issue a most serious, sincere apology to all those who have enjoyed reading my thoughts about baseball for the egregious, inexcusable five-month hiatus of Jake's Baseball Blog. I guess I'm just not very good at keeping up two blogs at once, and with this unbelievable election season I have focused my writing for fun over at Blue Musings. What's most inexcusable about my hiatus is that it took place basically during the entirety of the actual season. Now it's October, the leaves are turning, and eight teams are left to vie for the World Series title. And I have regret about not getting my feelings about these last five months out to you.
You never got to hear my feelings on the incredible rise of the Tampa Bay Rays, one of the most surprising playoff teams in recent history. I never let you know how I felt about the New York Mets imploding once again, and the injustice of Omar Minaya's four-year extension. I never wrote here about CC Sabathia's dominance of the NL, Tim Lincecum's breakout season, and Cliff Lee's improbable road to 22 wins. I never came here to discuss the longest All-Star Game in history, and the emotional closing of the stadium where it was played. I never gushed over Dustin Pedroia's MVP season, and him perhaps becoming my favorite Red Sox player ever. And, most regretfully, I never came here to pour out my incredibly conflicted feelings about the trade of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, perhaps the seminal off-the-field happening of my entire time following the Sox.
So, once again, I'm sorry. But I'm here now, and as always, this is the best time to be watching. I'll handicap for you what I expect to see in the remainder of the Division Series.
Dodgers v. Cubs (LA leads 2-0): I think it's safe to say the Dodgers hold that "Team of Destiny" mantle that went along with the Rockies, Tigers, White Sox, and Red Sox in the last four postseasons, respectively. They didn't finish the regular season with a great overall record, and they played rather passively until the trading deadline. Then came Manny. He hit .396 with 17 homers the rest of the way, and the Dodgers essentially left Arizona in the dust for the West Division crown. Now, they're a dynamic group mixing youngsters and veterans, and they're heading back to Chavez Ravine after ripping the Cubs' guts out in two at Wrigley.
It's hard not to feel bad for the Cubs and their fans. They had, on paper, the very best team in the NL all season, and then they run into the momentous Dodgers buzzsaw in October. They didn't just lose those first two games in Chicago: they were embarrassed there. They could never get that vaunted offense going, and both Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano were inconsistent in their starts.
Tomorrow night Hiroki Kuroda will face off against Rich Harden in a do-or-die game for the Cubs. Given Harden's unpredictability, and the likelihood of a raucous Dodgers Stadium crowd, I think this series will be over after tomorrow's game. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers won each of their next five games, either. They are the Team of Destiny in 2008. But, as the Rockies and Tigers proved, the Team of Destiny doesn't always win it all.
Brewers v. Phillies (Philly leads 2-0): My vote for "Least Surprising Outcome Through Two Games in the LDS" goes to this series. The Brewers got into the playoffs by the hair on Prince Fielder's ass, and their big weaknesses have been exposed thus far. Inexperienced guys in clutch situations, bad defense, bullpen woes, and no one to pitch well for extended innings besides Sabathia. His inability to get through the fourth inning in yesterday's game speaks volumes about just how screwed the Brewers are. We saw the same thing last year with Sabathia in the playoffs. It appears that he, like just about any other pitcher these days, just simply can't perform once they his 250 innings in a season.
On the other side, the Phils have seen two excellent starts from Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, and while the ghosts of Brad Lidge's playoff past seemed to come alive in Game 1, he definitely settled down in Game 2. The offense has come up with timely hits with Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino leading the way. Philly will look to Jamie Moyer to close out the series in Milwaukee. I won't rule out one Brewers win at home here, but Hamels will get the ball again Sunday, so I don't expect this series to go much past that. It will be great for the Phillies and their long-suffering fans to finally get back to the NLCS.
Of course, they'll just be heartbroken again after the Dodgers sweep them in that series.
White Sox v. Rays (Tampa Bay leads 1-0): Before this series began, I had this unexplainable, gut feeling that Chicago's momentum from beating the Tigers on Monday and then topping Minnesota in their one-game playoff Tuesday would lead to them pulling the upset against Tampa. I didn't get to see this game last night, but given Javier Vazquez's poor performance, and the apparent cohesiveness of the Tampa offense, I may have to rethink that stance.
Is Tampa's playoff inexperience a curse or a virtue? Will they wilt in key spots or will they be too scared or stupid to know how to act? I'm still having a tough time fathoming that the Tampa Bay Rays are in the playoffs. We are talking about the same Rays that finished last almost every other year of their existence, right? In my AL East preview from February, I said Tampa would be a "fun team to watch in 2008 and may surprise some people," and they could "drum up enough interest to get people out to the Trop even when the Sox or Yanks aren't in town." So I was right in those regards. But I never, ever thought they would have this much success this fast (I picked them to come in 4th), and here they are with homefield advantage in the ALDS.
If Mark Buehrle can stop the Rays train tonight, I'll feel much more confident about my gut feeling of the White Sox winning this series. If not, then I think we can safely pencil the Rays in for the ALCS.
I still can't believe I just wrote that last sentence.
Red Sox v. Angels (Boston leads 1-0): This Red Sox season has certainly not been without drama and intrigue. The Manny Saga aside, we saw awesome years from Pedroia, Youkilis, Lester, Matsuzaka and Papelbon, mediocre seasons from Beckett, Wakefield, the centerfield platoon, Varitek, and the rest of the bullpen, and abysmal/injury-plagued seasons from Buchholz, Drew, Lowell, Ortiz and Lugo. We saw the emergence of young future stalwarts like Jed Lowrie (Lugo only plays on the Red Sox as a $9 millon backup from now on. Period.), Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen. They played their best baseball behind the mid-season acquisitions of Jason Bay, Paul Byrd and Mark Kotsay. It was Bay who hit the go-ahead bomb to give the Red Sox the lead in Game 1 against the Angels. He had exactly the same number of postseason homers in 2008 as Manny. Until about 20 hours later. (Damn you, Manny).
I'm sure there were plenty of people who thought the key injuries to Lowell and Drew, Beckett's first start being pushed back to Sunday, and not having #24 out there would lead to a quick exit from the 2008 playoffs for the Red Sox. Well, they all forgot that these are the Red Sox, and their playoff success has never been about one guy, or two guys, or three guys. It's always been about 25 guys who go out there everyday and wear the jersey with pride, and they respond to the greatest fans in the world each time. They're going to win behind the sterling success of Lester and Dice-K, and the intense, in-your-face, leave-everything-out-there style of Pedroia, Youkilis and Papelbon. Everything else will trickle down from that.
Wednesday's win was the 10th in a row for the Red Sox against the Angels in the postseason, dating way back to that mythical Game 5 of the 1986 ALCS, when Dave Henderson saved the Red Sox season with a homer off Donny Moore (followed by Henderson jumping roughly 25 feet in the air while skipping up the 1st base line). Spike Owen said that on the plane ride back to Boston, all 25 Sox, to a man, knew they'd win Games 6 and 7 to get back to the Series. I almost feel like the Red Sox just know this time around that they're going to win despite the odds. These Angels are a stacked group, the best all-around team in baseball. But there's just something about these two teams getting together. I just think these Sox are a better team than these Angels right now.
If the Sox can manage a win tonight, and head back to Boston 2-0, they will be back to the ALCS for the fourth time in six years. They're on a collision course to face Manny and the Dodgers in the World Series.
I can't even begin to imagine what a series like that will mean.
You never got to hear my feelings on the incredible rise of the Tampa Bay Rays, one of the most surprising playoff teams in recent history. I never let you know how I felt about the New York Mets imploding once again, and the injustice of Omar Minaya's four-year extension. I never wrote here about CC Sabathia's dominance of the NL, Tim Lincecum's breakout season, and Cliff Lee's improbable road to 22 wins. I never came here to discuss the longest All-Star Game in history, and the emotional closing of the stadium where it was played. I never gushed over Dustin Pedroia's MVP season, and him perhaps becoming my favorite Red Sox player ever. And, most regretfully, I never came here to pour out my incredibly conflicted feelings about the trade of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, perhaps the seminal off-the-field happening of my entire time following the Sox.
So, once again, I'm sorry. But I'm here now, and as always, this is the best time to be watching. I'll handicap for you what I expect to see in the remainder of the Division Series.
Dodgers v. Cubs (LA leads 2-0): I think it's safe to say the Dodgers hold that "Team of Destiny" mantle that went along with the Rockies, Tigers, White Sox, and Red Sox in the last four postseasons, respectively. They didn't finish the regular season with a great overall record, and they played rather passively until the trading deadline. Then came Manny. He hit .396 with 17 homers the rest of the way, and the Dodgers essentially left Arizona in the dust for the West Division crown. Now, they're a dynamic group mixing youngsters and veterans, and they're heading back to Chavez Ravine after ripping the Cubs' guts out in two at Wrigley.
It's hard not to feel bad for the Cubs and their fans. They had, on paper, the very best team in the NL all season, and then they run into the momentous Dodgers buzzsaw in October. They didn't just lose those first two games in Chicago: they were embarrassed there. They could never get that vaunted offense going, and both Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano were inconsistent in their starts.
Tomorrow night Hiroki Kuroda will face off against Rich Harden in a do-or-die game for the Cubs. Given Harden's unpredictability, and the likelihood of a raucous Dodgers Stadium crowd, I think this series will be over after tomorrow's game. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers won each of their next five games, either. They are the Team of Destiny in 2008. But, as the Rockies and Tigers proved, the Team of Destiny doesn't always win it all.
Brewers v. Phillies (Philly leads 2-0): My vote for "Least Surprising Outcome Through Two Games in the LDS" goes to this series. The Brewers got into the playoffs by the hair on Prince Fielder's ass, and their big weaknesses have been exposed thus far. Inexperienced guys in clutch situations, bad defense, bullpen woes, and no one to pitch well for extended innings besides Sabathia. His inability to get through the fourth inning in yesterday's game speaks volumes about just how screwed the Brewers are. We saw the same thing last year with Sabathia in the playoffs. It appears that he, like just about any other pitcher these days, just simply can't perform once they his 250 innings in a season.
On the other side, the Phils have seen two excellent starts from Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, and while the ghosts of Brad Lidge's playoff past seemed to come alive in Game 1, he definitely settled down in Game 2. The offense has come up with timely hits with Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino leading the way. Philly will look to Jamie Moyer to close out the series in Milwaukee. I won't rule out one Brewers win at home here, but Hamels will get the ball again Sunday, so I don't expect this series to go much past that. It will be great for the Phillies and their long-suffering fans to finally get back to the NLCS.
Of course, they'll just be heartbroken again after the Dodgers sweep them in that series.
White Sox v. Rays (Tampa Bay leads 1-0): Before this series began, I had this unexplainable, gut feeling that Chicago's momentum from beating the Tigers on Monday and then topping Minnesota in their one-game playoff Tuesday would lead to them pulling the upset against Tampa. I didn't get to see this game last night, but given Javier Vazquez's poor performance, and the apparent cohesiveness of the Tampa offense, I may have to rethink that stance.
Is Tampa's playoff inexperience a curse or a virtue? Will they wilt in key spots or will they be too scared or stupid to know how to act? I'm still having a tough time fathoming that the Tampa Bay Rays are in the playoffs. We are talking about the same Rays that finished last almost every other year of their existence, right? In my AL East preview from February, I said Tampa would be a "fun team to watch in 2008 and may surprise some people," and they could "drum up enough interest to get people out to the Trop even when the Sox or Yanks aren't in town." So I was right in those regards. But I never, ever thought they would have this much success this fast (I picked them to come in 4th), and here they are with homefield advantage in the ALDS.
If Mark Buehrle can stop the Rays train tonight, I'll feel much more confident about my gut feeling of the White Sox winning this series. If not, then I think we can safely pencil the Rays in for the ALCS.
I still can't believe I just wrote that last sentence.
Red Sox v. Angels (Boston leads 1-0): This Red Sox season has certainly not been without drama and intrigue. The Manny Saga aside, we saw awesome years from Pedroia, Youkilis, Lester, Matsuzaka and Papelbon, mediocre seasons from Beckett, Wakefield, the centerfield platoon, Varitek, and the rest of the bullpen, and abysmal/injury-plagued seasons from Buchholz, Drew, Lowell, Ortiz and Lugo. We saw the emergence of young future stalwarts like Jed Lowrie (Lugo only plays on the Red Sox as a $9 millon backup from now on. Period.), Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen. They played their best baseball behind the mid-season acquisitions of Jason Bay, Paul Byrd and Mark Kotsay. It was Bay who hit the go-ahead bomb to give the Red Sox the lead in Game 1 against the Angels. He had exactly the same number of postseason homers in 2008 as Manny. Until about 20 hours later. (Damn you, Manny).
I'm sure there were plenty of people who thought the key injuries to Lowell and Drew, Beckett's first start being pushed back to Sunday, and not having #24 out there would lead to a quick exit from the 2008 playoffs for the Red Sox. Well, they all forgot that these are the Red Sox, and their playoff success has never been about one guy, or two guys, or three guys. It's always been about 25 guys who go out there everyday and wear the jersey with pride, and they respond to the greatest fans in the world each time. They're going to win behind the sterling success of Lester and Dice-K, and the intense, in-your-face, leave-everything-out-there style of Pedroia, Youkilis and Papelbon. Everything else will trickle down from that.
Wednesday's win was the 10th in a row for the Red Sox against the Angels in the postseason, dating way back to that mythical Game 5 of the 1986 ALCS, when Dave Henderson saved the Red Sox season with a homer off Donny Moore (followed by Henderson jumping roughly 25 feet in the air while skipping up the 1st base line). Spike Owen said that on the plane ride back to Boston, all 25 Sox, to a man, knew they'd win Games 6 and 7 to get back to the Series. I almost feel like the Red Sox just know this time around that they're going to win despite the odds. These Angels are a stacked group, the best all-around team in baseball. But there's just something about these two teams getting together. I just think these Sox are a better team than these Angels right now.
If the Sox can manage a win tonight, and head back to Boston 2-0, they will be back to the ALCS for the fourth time in six years. They're on a collision course to face Manny and the Dodgers in the World Series.
I can't even begin to imagine what a series like that will mean.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Jon Lester's Amazing Night
It's been far too long since my last update, unfortunately I've been preoccupied with school work, getting ready for the summer, "Lost," following the political happenings over at Blue Musings, and watching the Celtics on their run to a 17th NBA title. It's been a ho-hum season in baseball thus far in my opinion, with the Red Sox playing streaky and spending lots of time looking up at the Rays (what?) in the AL East. But everything that I love about baseball came rushing back last night when lymphoma-survivor Jon Lester pitched the greatest game of his life in front of a packed Fenway Park. He no-hit the KC Royals on 130 pitches and reminded everyone, fans and non-fans alike, the power of the human spirit.
Lester had everything going last night. He was hitting 94-95 with his fastball, even after he'd already thrown 115 pitches. His cutter was darting from one side of the plate to the other with ease, and his curve was buckling the knees of Alex Gordon, Jose Guillen and Billy Butler alike. For all of us who've been watching Lester ever since his big league debut in 2006, we always saw the potential. Here was a lefty with good breaking stuff, a fastball that could blow away good hitters, and enough poise to fill an entire stadium. Then came his illness, and we all watched with baited breath as he built his body for a most improbable comeback. His performance in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series was inspirational in the least and a beautiful display of courage we could all appreciate. And last night, Lester finally put together the game we all expected he was capable of.
The best thing I saw from Lester last night was the confidence in his fastball to get ahead of just about every Royals hitter. Lester has been labeled with the dreaded "nibbler" tag to this point in his career, but there was nothing remotely resembling a nibbler on the mound at Fenway last night. He was going right at the free-swinging Royals, and he got the majority of his 27 outs on ground balls. Lester was not afraid to let his sterling defenders (save Julio Lugo) do their jobs behind him, including a spectacular play by Jacoby Ellsbury in the 4th inning that wound up being the closest thing to a hit allowed by Lester all night.
I was worried that once he got past 110 pitches that Terry Francona might pull the plug on Lester's night even if the no-hitter was still going. But Francona kept his man on the hill and allowed him to get to where he could blow away Alberto Callaspo on his 130th and final pitch of the night. Much of the credit for this no-hitter must go to Jason Varitek, who has now caught an all-time record four no-hit games. I don't think that achievement by Varitek is a coincidence. It's even more amazing considering the no-hitters have come from a Japanese hurler (Nomo), a headcase (Lowe) and two kids (Buchholz and Lester). His own composure and prowess at calling games means much more to the pitchers in these situation than any of us can fully appreciate. Here's to hoping Varitek hasn't caught his last no-hitter in a Boston uniform.
I wrote after the World Series about how we wouldn't know about Lester's courage if it wasn't for baseball. I was reminded of this last night. Way to go, Jon.
Lester had everything going last night. He was hitting 94-95 with his fastball, even after he'd already thrown 115 pitches. His cutter was darting from one side of the plate to the other with ease, and his curve was buckling the knees of Alex Gordon, Jose Guillen and Billy Butler alike. For all of us who've been watching Lester ever since his big league debut in 2006, we always saw the potential. Here was a lefty with good breaking stuff, a fastball that could blow away good hitters, and enough poise to fill an entire stadium. Then came his illness, and we all watched with baited breath as he built his body for a most improbable comeback. His performance in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series was inspirational in the least and a beautiful display of courage we could all appreciate. And last night, Lester finally put together the game we all expected he was capable of.
The best thing I saw from Lester last night was the confidence in his fastball to get ahead of just about every Royals hitter. Lester has been labeled with the dreaded "nibbler" tag to this point in his career, but there was nothing remotely resembling a nibbler on the mound at Fenway last night. He was going right at the free-swinging Royals, and he got the majority of his 27 outs on ground balls. Lester was not afraid to let his sterling defenders (save Julio Lugo) do their jobs behind him, including a spectacular play by Jacoby Ellsbury in the 4th inning that wound up being the closest thing to a hit allowed by Lester all night.
I was worried that once he got past 110 pitches that Terry Francona might pull the plug on Lester's night even if the no-hitter was still going. But Francona kept his man on the hill and allowed him to get to where he could blow away Alberto Callaspo on his 130th and final pitch of the night. Much of the credit for this no-hitter must go to Jason Varitek, who has now caught an all-time record four no-hit games. I don't think that achievement by Varitek is a coincidence. It's even more amazing considering the no-hitters have come from a Japanese hurler (Nomo), a headcase (Lowe) and two kids (Buchholz and Lester). His own composure and prowess at calling games means much more to the pitchers in these situation than any of us can fully appreciate. Here's to hoping Varitek hasn't caught his last no-hitter in a Boston uniform.
I wrote after the World Series about how we wouldn't know about Lester's courage if it wasn't for baseball. I was reminded of this last night. Way to go, Jon.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
