Backdoor Slider

A Night In Philly I'll Never Forget

2010-07-12T19:45:00.000-07:00

It's been a long time, I know. A job will do that to your blogging skills. But I've been prompted to come back and write after what I witnessed this past weekend in Philadelphia. I watched the greatest single game I've ever seen in my life, a true testament to everything that makes baseball the best sport conjured up by human beings.

In just over three hours, I remembered everything that made me fall in love with the game 18 years ago this summer. Affirmed to me was that despite cries that baseball is dead and no longer matters in 2010, baseball is alive and well, will never die and will always matter. I'm going to tell you why.

******

My best friend Sam asked me to come with him to New Jersey and Philadelphia to pick up some furniture that belonged to a late friend of ours and his girlfriend. I agreed, and we decided to take in a Phillies game against Cincinnati as a result. This would be my fourth game at beautiful Citizens Bank Park on the south side of Philadelphia.

Citizens Bank Park is awesome. Like many of the new stadiums constructed in the last 20 years, it's a big ballpark that somehow feels incredibly intimate, and you're right on top of the action at all times. When you're there, you can tell the fans love the place, too.

Phillies fans are also great, they have a lot in common with Boston fans in terms of years of disappointment and dealing with unfortunate or bad situations when it comes to their teams. I've never been happier for a fanbase when the Phillies won the 2008 World Series because I knew just how much it meant to them. Now, like Red Sox fans, winning has made them want to win even more. You can feel that desire every time you walk into Citizens Bank Park.

Sam and I were pumped to find out Roy Halladay would be starting for Philadelphia Saturday night. We bought our tickets beforehand, knowing a Saturday night game in Philly with Halladay on the hill would sell out (we were right). But starting for the Reds was someone I'd never heard of, a rookie lefty named Travis Wood, who'd be making just his third big league start.

Wood was selected 60th in the 2005 MLB Draft, which I consider to be one of the best draft classes in history. To give you some perspective, Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza and Clay Buchholz were all taken in front of Wood, with Nolan Reimold, Chase Headley, Kevin Slowey, Yunel Escobar and Brett Gardner all going after him. So in such a deep class, going 60th was nothing to scoff at. But that didn't mean I knew anything about him before Saturday night's game.

We showed up a bit late thanks to traffic, and even though we were only about 20 minutes late we'd already missed the first two innings. It was National League ball at its finest. Little did we know what was in store as we made our way to the second row of section 416 in the upper deck along the first base line.

Halladay and Wood were both cruising. Halladay was laboring through some of his innings, scattering a few hits here and there, but typically getting out of jams thanks to his typically-awesome sinker.

Wood, on the other hand, was dominating a still-strong Phillies lineup that was missing Chase Utley and Placido Polanco. As a lefty with a deceptive delivery, he kept the Phils off balance with impeccable control which allowed him get ahead in counts and never fall behind. He got stronger as the game went along, at first spotting his fastball at 90-91 then working his way up to 92-93.

Wood was never overpowering Saturday night, seemingly getting all of his outs on fly balls. Shane Victorino hit a line shot down the third base line in the fourth but it was snared quickly by Miguel Cairo (who's somehow still alive) for the out. The Phils were making contact, but nothing found open spaces.

Wood retired nine in a row to start the game. Then 12. Then 15. That's when Sam and I started taking note that something very, very special was happening.

In historic terms, no-hitters and even perfect games have become somewhat common place in the last two years. There have been three official perfect games (including one by Halladay) in the MLB since the start of last season, and you'd have to be completely heartless to not count what Armando Galarraga did earlier this year as a perfect game, too. If you include Galarraga's performance, there have been six no-hitters or perfect games this year and we're just now at the All-Star break.

In most other years, I wouldn't get my hopes up about actually seeing a perfect game. Before last year, it had only happened 17 times since 1880, with 15 happening in the modern era beginning in 1900. The chances were so slim. I would have figured there'd be no way a rookie could possibly go on the road and toss a perfect game against the two-time N.L. champs. But in 2010, I had reason to believe.

Wood kept rolling. He struck out the immortal Cody Ransom to end the 5th, and then got Halladay to flail at strike three to finish the 6th. When that happened, I could feel a moment of unease in the stadium. Phillies fans were picking up on what was going on. A perfect game was being thrown against them, in their own park, by someone who might as well have been working behind the counter at Ishkabibbles on South Street.

Meanwhile, Halladay was also dealing, making the Reds hitters look bad with his Cy Young repertoire. Through seven innings he'd only allowed three hits and no one had crossed the plate for the Reds. We were looking at a situation where Wood could throw nine perfect innings...and still would need to keep going for a win.

Sam and I raced to buy programs so we'd have something to commemorate the game in case it was, in fact, historic. With my lifelong love affair with the history of baseball, this had potential to be one of the true highlights of my life. I told him that if, by chance, Wood were to throw nine perfect innings then finish the game with a perfect 10th after a hypothetical Reds go-ahead run, we'd probably have witnessed the single greatest pitching performance in the history of the game.

Upon conjuring this thought, my mind immediately centered on one man: Harvey Haddix. In case you don't know (and you probably don't), Haddix pitched what's considered the best single game in history on May 26, 1959. He threw nine perfect innings for the Pirates against the Braves, but his team couldn't score a run. So Haddix kept going, retiring another nine hitters before his third baseman committed an error. Later in the inning he gave up a walk-off double to Joe Adcock and lost the game 1-0 despite pitching 12 perfect innings.

Wood had a chance to do something similar to what Haddix did, but hopefully this time, he could walk away with the win. And I would be in the park to see it happen.

In the bottom of the 7th, Jimmy Rollins led off with a long flyout to center. Victorino popped out by the camera well on the first base line on an excellent play by Joey Votto (the game was pretty much devoid of excellent defensive plays except that one and the Cairo play, which is atypical for such a performance). Next up was Jayson Werth, the bearded, embattled right fielder who's experienced a sub-par season and has even been mentioned in trade rumors.

Werth worked the count. He was fouling off pitches, making Wood sweat out on the mound. He got to a three-ball count, which seemed to be the first time that had happened all game. It got to the payoff pitch. Three balls. Two strikes. Two outs. A chance to end the rookie's pursuit of perfection.

The crowd stood up and cheered louder than I could have imagined. The Phillies fans were willing Werth to get on base. They were cheering because there was a chance Werth might draw a walk. I had never seen anything like it, and I doubt I will again.

When Werth swung and missed for Wood's 21st consecutive retired batter, the stadium made a collective groan that was deafening. It was followed by complete silence as Wood paced his way back to the dugout. That's when I knew I was seeing the greatest game I'd ever witnessed. At that point, I honestly didn't care if Wood got the perfecto or not. I was seeing a great game. That's all that mattered.

Cairo doubled to start the top of the 8th and was successfully bunted over by Drew Stubbs. Next up was Ryan Hanigan, a no-name backup catcher who's primary job for the night was to call pitches for his rookie pitcher (and was doing a damn fine job at that). With the go-ahead run 90 feet away Hanigan staged a fantastic at bat against Halladay, but the ace got the novice swinging. Dusty Baker couldn't pinch-hit for Wood, and watched on as his pitcher killed the rally by striking out. I thought there was an outside chance Baker would call for the squeeze just to see if it would work, but it didn't happen.

The usher in our section was a jovial, portly fellow with a fine Philadelphia accent. I told him that Ryan Howard needed to take a swing at a first-pitch fastball to see if he could end Wood's dance with history, and possibly put the Phils ahead going into the ninth. Howard took my advice, but got under it too much and flew out to center. 22 down. Ben Francisco lined out to left. 23 down. Up next was Ransom, and about midway through the at-bat he turned on a pitch and launched it down the left field line, high and foul. It was easily the hardest-hit ball of the evening against Wood, but Ransom was just a bit out in front. The crowd gasped before realizing it was foul.

Ransom lifted a lazy pop fly to right that landed in the glove of Jay Bruce. 24 down. Only three to go. But he needed some help. Halladay wouldn't allow it. Votto laced a two-out single to left field, only to be stranded there when Jonny Gomes lined out to Werth.

Regardless of what happened in the bottom of the 9th, Wood wouldn't be getting his perfect game without the scenario I outlined a few paragraphs ago. It was a long shot, and I was pulling for him. It could happen. I could see the best performance ever.

Up first for Philly was Carlos Ruiz. If you've paid attention to the Phillies these past two postseasons, you'll know Ruiz is insanely clutch. He has a .905 OPS in the playoffs despite a pedestrian .726 OPS during the regular season. He hit 13 homers total in the '08 and '09 regular seasons but clubbed three dingers in those postseasons. I reminded Sam of this as Ruiz strode to the plate.

Ruiz got a pitch he liked, and drove it into the left-center field gap for a double. It was over. Wood's run with perfection died after 24 straight outs.

The crowd, understandably, went crazy. They didn't want to see a perfect game thrown against them. As a fan, I could understand their feeling. Mike Mussina lost a perfect game in 2001 with two outs in the 9th and two strikes on Carl Everett in Fenway Park. As much as I hated Everett, and that Red Sox team in general, at that time I had no desire to see the Yankees celebrate a perfect game on our turf. The Sox lost the game, but Everett saved us the embarrassment. The Phillies fans felt the same way.

Eventually their cheers for Ruiz turned into cheers for Wood, who was being consoled by teammates around the mound. I was standing and cheering the entire time, mostly for Wood. He came so close, as so many others had, but couldn't do it. I felt for him. But I honestly wasn't sad I missed out on seeing a perfect game.

I was too happy that I was witnessing an incredible game to be sad about anything.

Now, the question was, how long would this last? With the winning run at second base, would Wood be dealt a terrible loss? Or would these two clubs, deadlocked at no score, play deep into the night? Wilson Valdez gifted the Reds an out by popping up a bunt, causing the entire crowd to briefly lose their shit.

Hitting in Halladay's spot was Raul Ibanez, a pro's pro if there ever was one. He hit a mammoth shot to dead center that I could have sworn was gone when it left his bat, but landed on the warning track in Victorino's glove. Rollins popped out. Wood trudged back to the dugout, his night finished. His line: 9 IP, 0 R, 1 H, o BB, 8 K, 108 pitches.

Wood might have a long, productive career in the big leagues. Or he could flame out and amount to nothing. Either way, for the rest of his life, he'll wonder what might have been that night in Philly. Baseball is a cruel game. Wood pitches the game of his life, goes nine innings, but couldn't give his team a victory.

Brad Lidge relieved Halladay and struggled mightily in the 10th, but held the Reds scoreless. Nick Masset, and later Bill Bray, shut down the Phillies in the bottom half. Still no score. The crowd began to get uneasy. The previously washed-up Jose Contreras dominated the top of the 11th, and Bray came back out to start the bottom half.

After striking out Ransom, up came that man Ruiz. He launched a drive to the exact same spot he'd reached to break up the perfecto, ending up on second once again. Valdez was intentionally walked, and after Ross Gload popped up for the second out, Baker made a curious decision. He elected to lift Bray, a lefty, in favor of Logan Ondrusek, a righty, to switch Rollins to the left side.

Our jovial usher said this was a bad decision. I was inclined to agree. On the second pitch, Rollins smacked a single to right field. Ruiz trotted home, and the crowd went wild. Rollins was mobbed at first base.

With the Phillies jubilation, I made sure to watch the Reds dugout as well for their reaction. They were devastated. It was like they'd lost Game 7 of the World Series. Their heads were hung low. They knew they blew a chance at history. If they'd just been able to push a run across before, they could have made sure their rookie pitcher was remembered forever.

As I walked out of the stadium amongst the happy Phillies denizens, I knew July 10, 2010 was a night I'd remember forever.

*****

I feel so fortunate to love the game of baseball as much as I do. I appreciated every second I was in the ballpark. I'll never, ever forget the feeling watching that game. As an outsider, not rooting for either team, I could fully appreciate what I was seeing.

Baseball is awesome.

2010 AL West Preview

2010-03-08T10:00:00.000-08:00

To those waiting on the edge of their seats for this preview I apologize for the delay. I felt under the weather most of last week and I'm just starting to pick up the pieces now. So, without further ado, here's my AL West preview for 2010:

LOS ANGELES - Manager: Mike Scioscia
Emotions ran high for the Angels throughout the '09 season. On April 9, starter Nick Adenhart, 22, was killed by a drunk driver, and the entire team rallied around his spirit for the remainder of the season. They battled through injuries, inconsistency and a difficult division to win 97 games and yet another division title. After finally overcoming Boston in an ALDS sweep, they took New York to six games in the ALCS before bowing out. The winter was not kind to the Angels, leaving major questions about the perennial AL powerhouse.

Gone are three main cogs in Scioscia's machine: John Lackey to Boston, Chone Figgins to Seattle and Vlad Guerrero to Texas. GM Tony Reagins signed Joel Pineiro to shore up the rotation and Hideki Matsui to man Guerrero's old DH spot. Free agent reliever Fernando Rodney could challenge Brian Fuentes for the closer's role, and in a bit of addition-by-subtraction, Gary Matthews, Jr. is finally gone, although the club is paying almost all of the $23.5 million remaining on his insane contract.

Reagins elected to explore in-house options to replace Figgins, and the most obvious candidate is former top prospect Brandon Wood. Wood burst onto the scene by clubbing 43 homers at Hi-A Rancho Cucamonga in 2005, and while he's averaged 25 homers over the last four seasons in the minors, he's hit .192 in 236 career Major League plate appearances. But Wood just turned 25 and has nothing left to prove in the minors, so it's a calculated risk by the Angels to hand him to third base job. Should he struggle, the versatile Maicer Izturis could wrestle up some ABs.

Despite losing Lackey, the Angels could still have the West's best rotation. Jered Weaver finally pitched like an ace in '09 with a 3.75 ERA in 211 innings. Both Weaver and Joe Saunders won 16 games last year, and if fully healthy we know what Scott Kazmir can do. Pineiro will need to prove his NL success can translate to the AL, and Ervin Santana is certainly the wild card in all this. Santana skipped winter ball this year and by all accounts his arm is healed after his struggles in '09.

L.A. needs a strong rotation because I don't see their offense improving upon last year's .792 OPS. Bobby Abreu will return to the second spot in the order, but Erick Aybar is simply not as good a table-setter as Figgins. Kendry Morales can't be expected to perform as well as last year, and younger guys like Wood and Howie Kendrick are big question marks. Matsui and Torii Hunter are both a year older. There's a chance things could turn out in their favor after the turnover in personnel, but luck is going to play a part.

Perhaps the Angels we're used to no longer exist. This is still a solid all-around crew, and Scioscia's always been great at coaxing excellent performances from unusual characters. Over the course of the season, anything can and will happen, but the glory days in L.A. might be a thing of the past.

Prediciton: 2nd place.

OAKLAND - Manager: Bob Geren
Remember that time I picked the A's to win the '09 AL West title but they wound up losing 87 games and came in last place instead? Good, me neither. My bad predictions aside, the A's struggled out of the gate last year and traded away Matt Holliday and Orlando Cabrera and Oakland is about to enter yet another rebuilding year.

GM Billy Beane, who can't really be considered anything close to a "genius" after three straight below-mediocre seasons, used a similar philosophy to the Holliday and Cabrera acquisitions with his biggest move of this past winter. The perennially-infuriating Ben Sheets will begin the year in Oakland after missing all of '09 following elbow surgery. His $10 million contract for this year is mind-blowing, especially since it's Beane that gave it out. Either way, if he can prove to be healthy, Beane will flip Sheets to a contender for some prospects well before the deadline. They might be forced to pick up some of the tab, unfortunately.

Otherwise it was a nondescript winter for Oakland. The A's should have a stellar defensive outfield with the addition of Coco Crisp to speedsters Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney, which is obviously helpful at their cavernous home park. The moves, or lack of moves, left the A's with a team that will struggle on offense. They finished dead last in the AL with a .397 slugging percentage in '09, and besides Jack Cust, nobody's a power threat, or even close to one.

Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill both enjoyed solid campaigns as 21-year-old rookies in '09, so they could improve and form a good rotation if Sheets and Justin Duchscherer (who also missed all of '09) are healthy enough to contribute. Andrew Bailey, who earned Rookie of the Year honors after posting a 1.84 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 83 1/3 innings, returns as closer.

But like I said, this team won't hit at all. In a division with three other good teams, the A's will be left in the cold. This is a prediction I don't think I'll get wrong this time around.

Prediction: 4th place.

SEATTLE - Manager: Don Wakamatsu
Has any team had more ink spilled over their winter exploits than the Mariners? GM Jack Zduriencik went from "MLB executive on the rise" to "bona fide cult hero" in the course of one offseason after a bevy of terrific moves. After winning just 61 times in '08, the M's improved 24 games in the standings and should be even better after their winter of excitement and improvement.

Not only did the signing of Chone Figgins to a team-friendly four-year, $36 million contract allow Wakamatsu to team up Ichiro Suzuki and Figgins atop the order, but it also hurt their division rival Angels in the process. Jack Z traded three mid-level prospects for one year of Cliff Lee, a coup unlike anything we've seen in baseball in a long time. He turned Carlos Silva (aka "Bavasi's Folly") into Milton Bradley, the potential impact bat this team needed.

Casey Kotchman will get another chance to prove himself as an everyday first baseman, and he came at the small cost of utilityman Bill Hall. Eric Byrnes was signed for the MLB minimum after his release from Arizona, and he'll provide an energetic presence off the bench. Also, the enigmatic Brandon Morrow was moved for the more effective Brandon League as Zduriencik shored up his bullpen.

However well Seattle did this offseason, there are still plenty of questions. Certainly, teaming Cliff Lee with Felix Hernandez gives Seattle one of the best top-of-the-rotation tandems in the game. But beyond those two, it'll be a bit of a crapshoot. Ian Snell will be given every opportunity to prove he belongs in an AL rotation, while Erik Bedard won't be back until May at the earliest. Ryan Rowland-Smith was excellent in 15 starts last year (3.74 ERA), so they need him to prove his worth over a full season. Still, with Lee and Hernandez up top, teams won't want to face Seattle in the playoffs.

There's some question over the starting catcher job, with unproven prospect Adam Moore and longtime backup Rob Johnson set to share duties. It's no doubt a risky proposition, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them address this via trade during the season. Elsewhere, David Aardsma went from journeyman reliever to closer extraordinaire, converting 38 of 42 save chances with a 2.52 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings. Is it too much to ask for Aardsma to duplicate that success, given his lack of consistency in the past? The M's will find out, with League, Mark Lowe and Sean White waiting in the wings should he falter.

You'll be hard pressed to find a better defensive crew in baseball this year than these Seattle Mariners. It appears Figgins will be moved to second base so Jose Lopez can get the hang of third, a masterstroke for Wakamatsu and his coaching staff. Plus defenders litter this squad, with Jack Wilson at short, Kotchman at first, Ichiro manning right field and Franklin Gutierrez, who's quickly established himself as the best defensive center fielder of his generation, patrolling the vast expanse of Safeco Field. The questions in the pitching staff might not matter considering how good the Mariners will be defensively.

Offensively, the M's should be alright, and they can mask deficiencies with strong pitching and defense. A lot hinges on Bradley, now on his eighth different team in 11 seasons. Ken Griffey, Jr. has taken Bradley under his wing, and at the very least, his on-base abilities will be more appreciated by the forward-thinking Seattle front office. I expect a huge year for Bradley.

In any case, this is a Mariners team that can beat you any of a variety of ways. It's amazing how far they've come in just two years, and if everything breaks right, this is a team set up for continued success.

Prediction: 1st place.

TEXAS - Manager: Ron Washington
Last season went about as expected in Arlington, with the Rangers scoring a ton of runs but unable to sustain solid pitching. They spent most of the year in the Wild Card hunt but faltered down the stretch, finishing with 87 wins. It's not outlandish to expect a similar result in '10 for Texas, and given how much Seattle improved themselves, that's probably not going to be good enough for a postseason berth.

GM Jon Daniels elected to sell high on Kevin Millwood, who posted a 3.67 ERA at age 34 last year with one season remaining on his contract. But all he could extract from Baltimore was former closer Chris Ray. In Millwood's place will be Rich Harden, signed to a sensible $6.5 million contract with an $11 million option for '11. If they can strike gold with Harden, the Rangers have the chance to sport a top-notch rotation rounded out by young guns Scott Feldman, Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland. There's also lots of risk attached to each of those guys, and the Ballpark is far from an easy place to procure outs.

The offense was largely untouched, and despite the loss of Marlon Byrd to the Cubs, the Rangers don't feel like they've lost much with rookie speedster Julio Borbon likely to supplant him in center and rack up 50 steals. Vlad Guerrero comes on board, and should benefit from hitting in Arlington. Chris Davis gets another crack at first base, but he's struck out in nearly a third of his MLB plate appearances and that must end or prospect Justin Smoak will steal his job. Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz round out the relentless crew of hitters.

Get ready to hear the name Neftali Feliz a lot if you haven't already. To describe his pitching prowess as "electric" doesn't really tell the entire story. He throws 100 mph as consistently as Daniel Bard but when you see him pitch the ball simply explodes out of his hand.

A starter throughout his minor league career, he was converted to reliever and called up by Texas in August. From there, he struck out 39 and walked just eight in 31 innings, allowing just six runs and 13 hits. Even though the Rangers long-term plan is to use Feliz as a starter, he's still just 21 and he will likely start '10 in the bullpen. Before long, he'll be starting in the big leagues and blowing away the world. I can't wait to see it happen.

But the Rangers won't be in the postseason, yet again, in '10. Until they put together a starting rotation predicated on power arms, they won't be leap-frogging Seattle or Anaheim for playoff contention. Feliz is a good start, but it's not enough.

Prediction: 3rd place.

2010 AL Central Preview

2010-02-22T09:41:00.000-08:00

We're on to the AL Central today. I put off doing this because of one major transaction that was finally completed last weekend. You probably know what that is, but I'll get to it shortly. Without further ado:

CHICAGO - Manager: Ozzie Guillen
The question I always wonder when it comes to ChiSox GM Kenny Williams: Does he ever actually have a plan, or does he just suck at sticking to one? No team's vacillated between buyer and seller more than the White Sox over the last few seasons.

For example, last year they traded away Jim Thome and Jose Contreras yet still assumed the massive contracts of Jake Peavy and Alex Rios. It made no sense for '09, but after some moves this winter, it at least appears like the White Sox will be going for the division crown in '10.

Young infielders Josh Fields and Chris Getz were traded to KC for perennial disappointment Mark Teahen, who'll be the starting third baseman even though he's a novice defensively. That move does, however, allow Gordon Beckham, one of the most heralded rookies in the AL last year, to shift from third to his more natural position at second.

Williams did the Dodgers a huge favor and took Juan Pierre off their hands. Pierre will start in center field, and will only cost the White Sox $4.25 million each of the next two years. That's not a bad deal for an excellent defender who's super durable and had a .365 OBP last year. However, I'll be shocked if he's got more than 10 extra-base hits at the All-Star break.

Omar Vizquel will back up Alexei Ramirez at shortstop, and Andruw Jones ought to get most of the starts at DH. Williams took a low-risk chance on Freddy Garcia, who anchored the '05 World Championship staff but has been wracked by shoulder injuries each of the last three seasons.

The strength of the White Sox is their rotation, led by a finally-healthy Peavy and the ultra-reliable Mark Buehrle. Gavin Floyd and John Danks are also on the cusp of entering the top tier of AL starters. Bobby Jenks is the incumbent closer, but he could be supplanted by J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton or Tony Pena if Guillen once again loses patience with the hefty fireballer.

Many of the position players for Chicago are aged or injury prone, so they'll need some luck to get through the year with everyone healthy. Williams traded away most of the team's top prospects in the Peavy deal, so don't expect reinforcements. The White Sox will be good, unless Williams changes track again and deals away all the veterans. It's hard to tell right now.

Prediction: 2nd place.

CLEVELAND - Manager: Manny Acta
I'm pissed about what's happened to the Indians, and I'm no Indians fan. In October 2007, Cleveland was on top of the baseball world. They were up 3-1 in the ALCS against Boston with a diverse and fun team, set to go to the World Series and bring their city its first title since 1948. But then Josh Beckett dominated Game 5, and two games later the Indians went home empty.

After an uneven '08 season that saw CC Sabathia moved to Milwaukee, the wheels completely came off in '09. GM Mark Shapiro's "Firesale '09!" started in earnest. Cliff Lee was the second straight reigning Cy Young winner traded by Cleveland, team leader Victor Martinez waved goodbye, and Rafael Betancourt, Ryan Garko, Mark DeRosa and Ben Francisco were also cast away. The ragtag remains won just 65 games for Cleveland, and this was somehow deemed to be the fault of manager Eric Wedge, who was throwing out a Double-A lineup most of the last two months of the season.

Wedge was shitcanned with one series against Boston still remaining on the schedule, but stayed through as a lame duck. Enter Manny Acta, who's supposedly a great baseball mind even though his 158-252 record in two and a half seasons in Washington doesn't exactly scream "genius." All Shapiro added this winter was washed-up backup catcher Mark Redmond and mashing first baseman Russell Branyan, who hit 31 bombs last year but struck out 149 times in 505 plate appearances. So Acta will have about as much to work with as Wedge.

Despite the best efforts of Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera, this team is going to suck. They might be the only team in the AL to lose 100 games this year. Travis Hafner is done. Done. And he's still owed $40.25 million. Jake Westbrook is the only starting pitcher with a chance to be slightly below average. If Kerry Wood is actually decent, he'll surely be dealt by the deadline.

If all that wasn't bad enough for Cleveland fans, there's this recent bit of incongruous news: Shapiro will be promoted to team president after the '10 season, with longtime assistant Chris Antonetti ready to step into the GM seat. Clearly, anyone who takes a team within one win of the World Series to 97 losses (with potential for even more) in just over two years is certainly worthy of a promotion.

Prediction: 5th place.

DETROIT - Manager: Jim Leyland
I picked the Tigers to come in dead last in '09, and they were in the lead in the AL Central for most of the year before losing the exciting Game 163 against Minnesota. There has to be plenty of residual bitterness about how '09 ended as Leyland's club whimpered through the final few weeks and allowed a surging Twins team to get a playoff spot everyone had penciled Detroit into for most of the season.

GM Dave Dombrowski followed that up with a pretty controversial offseason, highlighted by the three-team deal that sent Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson away for youngsters Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Max Scherzer. Granderson, a fan favorite and an all-around fantastic guy, was moved because the Tigers presumably didn't want to pay the $25.75 million remaining on his deal due to questions about his range and putrid performance against lefties (.484 OPS in '09). With over $50 million tied up in dead money for Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman and Magglio Ordonez this year, it made some sense to cut down on payroll while getting some useful pieces back.

But after adding Jose Valverde for $14 million over two years, and now Johnny Damon for one year at $8 million, I think Tigers fans have every right to question why Granderson and Jackson were traded away if money isn't really a concern. Valverde is something of a luxury and they were obviously prepared to go into '10 without Damon on their roster. Granderson was only owed $3.5 million for this year. I'm just not sure what to make of all the moves, or if they Tigers will be better this season because of them.

Justin Verlander, armed with a new five-year contract extension, will anchor the staff. Hopefully the reins will be eased and Rick Porcello can get close to 180 innings in '10. With the addition of Scherzer, the Tigers have a solid foundation for the top of their rotation for years to come. It's the bottom two spots, likely to be manned by some combination of the aforementioned "dead money" pitchers, that will almost certainly hold the Tigers back.

It'll be interesting to see what kind of season Miguel Cabrera can muster after a winter of sobriety. He let down so many people with his behavior at the end of last season, and he's made a concerted effort to turn his life around through substance abuse rehab. By all accounts, he's feeling great and could even improve on last year's .942 OPS, which would be bad news for the rest of baseball.

But I don't think this is going to be a great year for the Tigers. They're likely to start two rookies at the key positions of center field (Jackson) and second base (Scott Sizemore), as well as all-glove no-bat shortstop Adam Everett. If they can't get any production out of the back end of the rotation, this team will struggle to reach .500.

Prediction: 3rd place.

KANSAS CITY - Manager: Trey Hillman
Sure, being a Royals fan must suck. But they can express a semi-optimistic sentiment coming into '10, which is something they probably haven't been able to do much recently: "Well, at least we have Greinke and Soria." It's a start, right? Unfortunately, GM Dayton Moore did little to improve the team this offseason and KC's headed for the basement once again.

I mentioned a few weeks ago that Kansas City should have been in the sweepstakes for Damon, but instead they signed three offensive black holes (Brian N. Anderson, career OPS .660, Scott Podsedik, .720, and Rick Ankiel, .763) to compete for two open outfield spots. That's pretty much par for the course for the Baird/Moore Era Royals.

In one of the more comedic signings of the offseason, Moore brought in Jason Kendall to catch, the same Jason Kendall who hit 30 homers in over 5,500 plate appearances during the Aughts (10 of those homers came in 2000). Such production was rewarded with a two-year deal from KC, prompting a hilarious stream of mocking tweets led by Keith Law after the deal was announced. One that stood out: "Three out of three Molinas agree Jason Kendall is the easiest catcher to run on in baseball."

Alas, they do have Zack Greinke, the reigning AL Cy Young champ who at 26 is just hitting his prime. It's a joy to watch him mix up his pitches and make the opposition look silly. He's been dubbed a harder-throwing Maddux, and it's hard to disagree with such an assessment. Greinke is under contract through '12, or until Moore trades him for 40 cents on the dollar. You can pretty much bet on that latter scenario coming first. Joakim Soria is quietly one of the best closers in the AL, with a career 2.09 ERA, but some arm issues might hold him back.

The Royals aren't particularly interesting. Or good. Or competent. Or worth watching. But at least they've got Greinke and Soria.

Prediction: 4th place.

MINNESOTA - Manager: Ron Gardenhire
While observers have been tripping over themselves to declare the Mariners the franchise with the best offseason, I think the Twins deserve plenty of praise themselves. It's hard to say Minnesota, who won the '09 AL Central title after a mad charge despite missing Justin Morneau due to a back injury, didn't improve themselves immensely through some excellent trades and free agent signings. Plus, they might not be done.

Carlos Gomez was shipped to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy, one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball coming off a poor season at the plate but hit 24 homers in '08. With the emergence of Denard Span, Gomez was rendered somewhat irrelevant, so for GM Bill Smith to turn him into a player like Hardy is remarkable. Shortstop has been something of a difficult position for the Twins to fill the last few years, so Hardy will be a welcome change.

The middle infield makeover was completed when Orlando Hudson was signed for this year at $5 million, an extremely modest sum for a still-excellent defender at second with a career .348 OBP. He's also likely to replace that other Orlando (Cabrera) as vocal team leader and solid clubhouse veteran. Jim Thome was signed for the even more modest sum of $1.5 million guaranteed, giving Ron Gardenhire the option of scaring the piss out of weakling righty relievers late in close games.

Smith signed Carl Pavano, a solid piece who contributed much to the Twins' surge, to a one-year deal as well. Like always, the Twins rotation is mostly homegrown talent, including ace Scott Baker plus Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey. But Francisco Liriano might be the key to the Twins' entire season. We're still yet to see any consistency from Liriano since his Tommy John surgery nearly four years ago, and his fastball velocity has never really come back. He might open '10 in the bullpen, but if he shows some promise I'm sure Gardenhire won't hesitate to start him.

Joe Nathan needs to put his October difficulties behind him, but at 35 he hasn't showed many signs of slowing down and is still one of the best closers in the game. The bullpen, with Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch and the return of Pat Neshek, will be a significant strength.

But as the Twins open their new roofless stadium, the focus will be on reigning AL MVP and hometown hero Joe Mauer. The impending free agent has been involved in prolonged negotiations with Twins management about a contract extension, and it looks like something will get done soon. I'm not sure how much money Mauer will get, but the guy who swatted 191 hits in just 138 games last year should be paid handsomely. Only Pujols is a better player right now.

With Mauer leading the way, the Twins will reap the benefits of a great winter and win the AL Central in the first year of Target Field. Minnesota's hoping the tandem of Mauer, the Twins, their new park and, most importantly, winning, will last well beyond '10.

Prediction: 1st place.

2010 AL East Preview

2010-02-15T06:28:00.000-08:00

Just like that, it's almost time.

After a winter of down contracts (and many Scott Boras clients still looking for jobs), players, managers, coaches and fans are packing their vehicles and making that annual trek to Florida or Arizona to begin a new season.

With that comes my annual AL preview. I start, as always, with the AL East sans Boston, who I'll preview in depth just before the regular season commences.

BALTIMORE - Manager: Dave Tremblay
Another year, another miserable season to be a Orioles fan. Baltimore rounded out the decade with its 12th consecutive losing season, losing 98 games, finishing dead-last in AL ERA, hits, runs and homers while striking out more than any AL offense. Lots of rookies were broken in, while several veterans played out the string or were eventually traded.

It's been a difficult start for O's GM Andy MacPhail, but based on some excellent rebuilding moves the last few years, and a couple prime moves this winter, perhaps the worst days for Baltimore are in the past. MacPhail signed Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada to one-year contracts totaling $10 million to shore up the corner infield spots. He also traded overrated closer Chris Ray to the Rangers for Kevin Millwood, and signed Mike Gonzalez to be the new ninth inning fireman.

MacPhail was able to make these moves while actually keeping the club's payroll in the $80 million range, roughly that same as it was in '09. That's at least partially because the team's going to rely on plenty of young, cheap talent, many of whom got their feet wet during the '09 campaign.

It all begins with Matt Wieters, the catcher with a power bat who showed plenty of potential after making his big league debut last May. The kid gloves come off this year for Wieters, giving him ample opportunity to grow into a star at age 24. Young outfield guns Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold are set to be firmly entrenched in center and left field, respectively, for years to come. Jones and Reimold combined for only 223 games last year due to injury, so expect them to fill out one baseball's best young outfields alongside super-duper star Nick Markakis.

The starting rotation behind Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie will be three kids with miles of upside. Brad Bergesen, 24, was rather impressive in 19 starts with the O's last season, sporting a 3.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 123 innings. He should be joined by 23-year-old Brian Matusz and 21-year-old Chris Tillman, both terrific pitching prospects Baltimore's been so lacking the last decade or so.

The Orioles should actually be fun to watch this year, especially if the kids round into form. After I spent much of last fall watching "The Wire," the city of Baltimore has a soft spot in my heart. As if things weren't crappy enough in that city, they've had to be subjected to such crappy baseball too. Here's hoping the new decade is kinder to Baltimore, both on the field and off.

Prediction: 4th place.

NEW YORK - Manager: Joe Girardi
Everything that could have gone right for the Yankees last year went right. They had the perfect team for their new wiffle ball stadium, combining power hitting with power pitching, harnessing one of the best offenses in recent baseball history while winning in the playoffs with just three starters and a manager who often seemed over-matched.

GM Brian Cashman responded to winning the '09 World Series with a strong but curious offseason. (I realize I just inadvertently made an Altoids reference. Let's move on.) He solidified their rotation by dealing away Melky Cabrera for strikeout machine Javier Vazquez, and replaced Cabrera with Curtis Granderson in a three-team deal that saw Phil Coke and Austin Jackson wave goodbye. He also signed Nick Johnson to be the club's primary DH, and brought in Randy Winn to shore up the outfield.

But Cashman held firm to a seemingly arbitrary $200 million payroll limit and refused to give Johnny Damon, a proven commodity and fan favorite, anything close to his asking price. Sure, the initial asking price (three years, $39 million) was insane, but the Yankees could have made more of a serious effort to keep him. His swing is tailor-made for Yankee Stadium. The Yankees knew this, but still shooed Damon out the door like some kind of rodent.

While I think most Yankee fans realized World Series MVP Hideki Matsui wasn't coming back, the way the Damon negotiations went down upset millions who saw Damon as the consummate pro and someone who helped change the clubhouse culture. Now he's going to be replaced by a Winn/Brett Gardner platoon? With all the Red Sox potential issues on offense, they don't have to worry about anything like a Winn/Gardner platoon, not even mentioning how abhorrently awful Granderson is against lefties (.484 OPS last year, and that's not a typo). They should have worked something out with Damon and left Johnson to his own devices. The Yankees will be weaker as a result.

Having said all that, the Yankees are still a juggernaut. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are both entering contract years, Alex Rodriguez is finally comfortable, and Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett are the new generation of Yankees heroes. There are some questions about outfield defense, rotation depth, and of course the annual "What the Hell are We Going to Do With Joba?" debate.

While I can't pick them to win the division solely based on the Red Sox-shaped helices in my DNA, the Yankees are definitely going to the playoffs, and will definitely be one of the three best teams in baseball this year. Now pardon me while I puke my guts out.

Prediction: 2nd place.

TAMPA BAY - Manger: Joe Maddon
A year after making it to the Fall Classic, the Rays took a step back, winning just 84 games while experiencing inconsistency and injury throughout the year. It wasn't hard to see this coming, what with the luck the '08 Rays had with their young pitching staff. If the Rays don't get off to a hot start in '10, some of their big pieces could be shipped away.

Let's start with the positives: the Rays finally got their hands on a bona fide closer in flamethrower Rafael Soriano, who was offered arbitration by the Braves and incredulously accepted it even though they'd already signed Billy Wagner. GM Andrew Friedman took advantage, sending peanuts to the hamstrung Braves for Soriano. The move allows J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler to fall back into their more natural roles as setup men. The Rays had a whopping nine relievers earn saves in '09.

Friedman dealt away Akinori Iwamura after Ben Zobrist claimed second base for himself in '09. Zobrist had one of the most unexpected breakout seasons in recent memory, posting a ridiculous .948 OPS and playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at both second base and center field. Kelly Shoppach was brought in to compete with Dioner Navarro for the starting catching gig.

Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet offseason for Tampa, as they've experienced a significant money crunch. They will still have one of the finest young rotations in the game, with James Shields and Matt Garza leading the way in front of Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis. With another year under their belts, they could be poised to put together another season like '08.

They need Pat Burrell to prove he's not washed up, and B.J. Upton to play up to his capabilities. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are in walk years, and they could be deadline bait unless the Rays are leading the pack. Of course, they've still got Evan Longoria, a true superstar and one of the game's best all-round players.

I don't think Tampa's got enough to crack the postseason this year. It would be sad to see them go into seller mode just two years removed from a World Series berth, so hopefully they won't fall too far behind during the year.

Prediction: 3rd place.

TORONTO - Manager: Cito Gaston
Rejoice, Jays fans! You're finally out from under the terrible wrath of J.P. Ricciardi! Now all you have to do is go through years of rebuilding and you'll be fine!

OK, maybe things aren't so rosy for the Jays, but with Ricciardi finally out of the picture, and Alex Anthopoulos clearly wanting a fresh start, at least Toronto is headed on the right path. Anthopoulos finally consummated a deal for Roy Halladay, bringing in prospects Kyle Drabek, third baseman Brett Wallace and catcher Travis D'Arnaud for their pending free agent ace.

It's going to be odd watching the Jays without Halladay. For so many years, he was their identity. If your club had a series with the Jays coming up, you probably felt good, but you needed to know if Halladay was going to make an appearance. Hopefully you'd win the other two and take the series that way. Without Halladay, nothing about this team is scary. Or interesting.

Aaron Hill smashed 36 bombs last year and is no doubt one of the best second basemen going right now. Adam Lind added 35 homers of his own, and Travis Snider should be developing some more pop this time around. Otherwise, the only thing really of note about the Jays' offense is this number: 107. That's how many millions of dollars they still owe Vernon Wells, who's sporting a .743 OPS since signing his mega-extension in December '06.

On the pitching front, their rotation is highlighted by underachievers with unpronounceable Polish names. In the bullpen, the savage battle for the closer spot between titans Kevin Gregg and Jason Frasor is about to ensue.

So fear not, Jays fans. You're only a decade away from relevance.

Prediction: 5th place.

Attention Wal-Mart Shoppers...

2010-01-28T12:58:00.000-08:00

The clock is ticking ever closer to the 2010 season, with pitchers and catchers set to report to Florida and Arizona in about three weeks. But like last winter, there are plenty of bargains for teams yet to fill out their big league rosters. In fact, you could probably field a halfway decent club using the cream of the remaining crop.

Take, for instance, Jim Thome. The Twins signed the lefty DH for a song, committing just $1.5 million plus incentives for 2010. Thome can't play the field anymore but his .881 OPS against RH pitching in '09 will surely come in handy in the close AL Central. Adding Thome's pop could wind up being the difference at minimal cost to Minnesota.

The difference makers are still out there. Let's take a look at a few of them:

Hank Blalock: The lefty-hitting corner infielder will play somewhere other than Arlington for the first time in his career this year. At 29, Blalock may no longer be serviceable in the field but can still hit, knocking 25 homers in 462 plate appearances in '09. The problem: Blalock struck out 108 times compared to 26 walks with a career-low .277 OBP. The Orioles had been linked to Blalock throughout the winter before they signed Miguel Tejada last week. Some team willing to take a chance on his power can probably get Blalock for a Thome-like contract.

Ryan Garko: After trading for Garko for the stretch run last summer, it seemed odd for the Giants to non-tender him, considering he's only 29 and hit 21 homers in '07. But then I looked at his splits: his '09 OPS against lefties (.870) was over 150 points higher than against righties (.713). Garko offers some versatility with the ability to play corner outfield in addition to first base (although his catching days are far behind him). The Rangers have emerged as a possible suitor, but it's hard to imagine them blocking Justin Smoak in any fashion. Garko might make sense for an NL team in need of a righty power bench bat.

Orlando Hudson: Why can't the O-Dog get any love? Last winter he was forced to wait until February 22 to sign a one-year deal with the Dodgers, and it's looking like he might have to wait nearly as long this time. It's especially inexplicable this time around because Hudson's coming off an All-Star, Gold Glove season during which he played 149 games. Rest assured that if the Mets weren't tied down to Luis Castillo's contract he'd be gearing up for a season in Queens right now. Unfortunately, it looks like his last best option is Washington. Poor O-Dog!

Felipe Lopez: A solid pickup for the Brewers in July, Lopez made the transition to full-time second baseman in '09 with strong results (7.6 UZR/150). In addition, he was fifth in the NL in hits (187) and ninth in average (.310). His .810 OPS was the second-highest of his career (.838 in '05, his best season). Yet as February nears, he doesn't have a job. If Hudson doesn't sign with the Nats, a return engagement there for Lopez appears likely. Or he could go back to the Cardinals, where he spent half the '08 season. Whichever team gets him will likely be tickled pink to have him at a discount.

Orlando Cabrera: Perhaps Cabrera is best suited for the bench at this point in his career. Sure, he's undeniably durable, playing in under 153 games just once since '01, but Cabrera's .705 OPS the last two years isn't exactly spectacular and he took a huge step back in the field in '09 with a -13.7 UZR/150. Regardless, your team is likely to be better for having Cabrera than not because of his ebullient personality and tremendous leadership qualities. Since joining the Red Sox in '04, his teams have only missed the playoffs once, and that was an 89-win '06 Angels crew. The Reds really like Cabrera, so for a couple million he might have a new home there.

Joe Crede: If not for three back surgeries the last three years, Crede would likely be one of the top-paid third basemen in baseball. He's long been one of the most defensively under-appreciated players at his position, and still hit 32 homers between two half-seasons in '09-'10. The experiment didn't really work out last year in Minnesota, and with the Orioles plugging their corner infield holes, the options are limited for Crede. The Cardinals might need a third baseman, but money is an issue for them. If he's willing to play for less than his '09 $2.5 million salary, something might get done there.

Johnny Damon: The most perplexing of all the names on this list. Damon put up stellar '09 numbers, albeit ones aided by playing his home games in a park tailor-made for lefty hitters. Still, 24 homers, 107 runs and an .854 OPS are nothing to scoff at. His defense dropped off in '09, but he's by no means a liability out there yet. So is it really possible Damon, who hoped to continue earning $13 million per year, might have to settle for as little as $2 million for '10? The A's appear to have the upper hand right now. If you ask me, the team that really screwed the pooch when it comes to Damon is Kansas City. If they hadn't stupidly thrown money at Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel, Damon, a Kansas native, would have been a perfect fit. You mean to tell me the fans wouldn't have loved to see Damon back? Who cares if he sucks in the outfield; are the Royals going anywhere? A real missed opportunity.

Jermaine Dye: It's hard to find a worse defensive player in baseball than Dye, at least if advanced metrics tell us anything. His UZR/150 each of the last four years: -21.5, -21.5, -21.4 and -24.5. This winter of heightened emphasis on defense was a horrible time for Dye to hit the free agent market, and that's why he finds himself jobless. It also doesn't help that his offense has fluctuated significantly over the last few seasons. The number of teams interested in Dye continues to dwindle. He can still hit, so at the very least a team will be happy securing his power for their bench.

The pitching crop is more thin at this point, with Erik Bedard the only remaining potential top-tier starter. If healthy, Noah Lowry, Mark Mulder and Jarrod Washburn could also pay significant dividends for frugal teams.

It will be interesting to see if any of these players I've highlighted wind up pushing a team over the threshold into the playoffs, or even contribute to a World Champion.

Tackling the Sox Offseason

2010-01-08T07:29:00.001-08:00

The Red Sox always do a fantastic job stealing headlines away from Boston teams that actually play in the winter. While the Patriots prepare for a playoff tilt with Baltimore, the Celtics keep winning despite missing come key pieces, and the Bruins experience a hangover from the glorious Winter Classic, the myriad moves Theo Epstein and company have made to reshape the Red Sox for a new decade are on seemingly everyone's lips.

I've liked, to varying degrees, every move the club has made this winter. I'll go in depth shortly, but they've added a top-of-the-rotation starter, vastly improved team defense (especially on the left side of the infield), shored up the bench with useful pieces who can play everyday if needed, gotten younger, assured themselves of four picks between the 20th and 53rd choices in the June draft, signed only one player to a guaranteed deal longer than two years and did not dip into the farm system to address any of these needs. They set a goal to improve run prevention and defensive efficiency, and they've followed through on it. During a winter with a depressed free agent market, the Red Sox have done extremely well.

Apparently, lots of people don't share with my feelings. On Wednesday, I drove down to Boston for a Passion Pit concert and listened in to Mike Felger and Tony Massarotti's radio show on 98.5 The Sports Hub. Maybe it's because I'm stuck in my little cocoon in northern New Hampshire, but I had no idea the Red Sox offseason has been so loathed by so many.

I wasn't necessarily surprised by the sour feelings of the hosts; Felger was melting down while Massarotti was a bit more measured in his distaste. That's surprising because it's been more than a year and Mazz still isn't over the failed Mark Teixeira signing, and he couldn't resist tossing in a barb on that while I was listening.

Felger accused the Red Sox of not being truthful about their offseason mission (which is hilarious coming from a guy who's primarily covered the Patriots, surely the most forthcoming of organizations in sports) and being unwilling to spend big money on the bat he feels this offense sorely needs.

He also made the following claim, which would be more astonishing if it wasn't so hysterical: the Red Sox need give out more risky, long-term, bad contracts (yes, he actually endorsed "bad contracts") because they have the financial muscle to do so. I want to analyze this statement in more detail, but I'm afraid it would cause the bursting of multiple blood vessels in my brain. Instead, I'll just say that same philosophy has worked out beautifully for the Mets and leave it at that.

The callers for the Felgie and Mazz "Let's Rip Everyone Whether They Deserve It or Not Power Hour sponsored by Schlitz Beer" were mostly in agreement with the hosts, bitching as usual about the high cost of a potentially disappointing team, its affect on ticket prices, the lack of the one big hitter, how they haven't addressed a bullpen that's now awful because they blew one game in the playoffs, and plenty of other stuff I've blocked out of my memory.

Am I missing something here? All the sound and fury about not spending big money signifies nothing to me. Every argument against the spendthrift Sox of '09-'10 leaves out the John Lackey signing, and I don't recall a time when $82.5 million wasn't big money in baseball.

Lackey coming aboard caught me by surprise, and I think it caught the Red Sox by surprise too. He's had some injuries and some trouble in Fenway Park, but at worst he's an ultra-competitive no. 2 starter who wants to ball in a big game. The Red Sox signed this winter's best free agent starter to a market value contract and solidified a rotation that should rank amongst the finest in baseball in '10. Lackey also protects the Red Sox in case Josh Beckett flees via free agency after this season.

To me, the Lackey signing was unassailable, except that five years may wind up being excessive for a 31-year-old with an injury history. (The Sox even protected themselves here with an unprecedented "conditional" league-minimum option for 2015 if he misses "significant time" due to a preexisting elbow injury. Epstein is always thinking. He's like Omar Minaya in reverse.)

Announced at the same time was the Mike Cameron signing. Cameron's been a premiere defensive outfielder his entire career, and Epstein & Co. decided Lackey would be their "big money" move and went on the cheap to replace Jason Bay. Although no one could consider Cameron offensively superior to Bay right now, the not-overwhelming difference in their OPS over the last three years (Bay: .855, Cameron: .786) tells me Cameron's excellent defense will help make up the difference.

I would not have minded the Red Sox keeping Bay. Unfortunately, all of his value comes from his bat, as he's been abhorrently awful statistically in left field with UZR/150s of -11.4, -18.2 and -11.2 in the last three years. Bay's deal with the Mets should keep him in Queens for five seasons, but after three I'll be shocked if he's still patrolling the cavernous left field terrain of Citi Field.

It took a couple weeks for this to be confirmed by the team, but Cameron will be the Red Sox center fielder in '10 with Jacoby Ellsbury shifting to left field. It won't be a permanent move for Ellsbury's career, and his bizarre -18.3 UZR/150 in '09 isn't indicative of the kind of defender he'll become. But with Cameron's defensive toolkit (Felgie made fun of Francona's assertion that Cameron is better suited to play center because of his "long strides," as if that's somehow worthy of ridicule), it didn't make much sense to stick him in left field. Now the Red Sox can sport a starting outfield with three center fielders.

Also, I can't take anyone seriously who claims Ellsbury's offensive game doesn't work for a left fielder. What the hell difference does it make? Because he's playing left that means he can't be a leadoff hitter? Ever hear of this guy? Yikes.

Already armed with the best free agent shortstop available on the market in Marco Scutaro, Epstein set his sights on the best third baseman available. He got his man, Adrian Beltre, whose signing became official Thursday evening. The contract for Beltre is a dandy, one of the best by any team this offseason.

Scott Boras went into the winter expecting a four-year contract for Beltre north of $10 million annually. It didn't happen, especially since his client missed over 50 games due to injury last year and posted a .683 OPS when he was playing. Still, a few teams came in with multi-year offers, including the A's.

The deal he wound up signing for Beltre with Boston was fantastic for so many reasons. First, the one-year commitment at $9 million is exactly the kind of move the Red Sox love. The $5 million player option for '11 is low enough that Beltre will probably decline it. But, there's an escalator clause that bumps the option up to $10 million if he reaches 640 PAs this year. That might be enough to keep him, and if Beltre hits that PA plateau, the Sox will probably want him back anyway.

When healthy, Beltre has proven himself to be one of the best defensive players of his generation. Check out this gushing Dave Cameron post on FanGraphs about him, and this YouTube clip that somehow hasn't been taken down yet. (UPDATE: It's gone.) Seems hard to say this is a bad move, no? Minimal commitment, spectacular defense, potential for strong offense in Fenway; I'm not seeing the downside.

Mike Lowell is still on the Red Sox for now, but he clearly represents what the team used to be. Despite the trade of Casey Kotchman to the Mariners for Bill Hall, the Sox will continue to try and unload Lowell before the season starts. I expect that to happen, as long as Lowell can prove himself healthy in spring training. Perhaps a team will take a chance beforehand.

Hall provides a versatile backup on the left side of the infield and could be the fifth outfielder behind Jeremy Hermida, too. The Sox are only on the hook for $1.25 million of his $8.4 million '10 salary. He hit 35 homers four years ago and Epstein's always liked him. Hall is one of those guys I always expected would end up in Boston, and here he is.

So outside of finding a new home for Lowell, it appears the Red Sox will go into the season with what they have. The starting lineup will be comprised of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Martinez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Drew, Beltre, Cameron and Scutaro. Only Beltre had an OBP in '09 lower than the AL average of .331. Everyone can hit double-digit homers, but no one is likely to hit much more than 30. Will everything work out? Maybe not. But to assume in January this team will stink offensively is at the very least shortsighted.

If the offense does lag, the farm system is still well-stocked because of these moves and they could add that impact bat during the season when the cost won't be so high. But this wasn't the right offseason to add tons of offense. Next winter will be different. With over $50 million coming off the books, and Epstein not showing much effort to keep Martinez from hitting free agency, I firmly believe Boston will be going hard for Joe Mauer next winter.

How's that for an impact bat?

But the Red Sox have done the right thing this winter. Instead of tying themselves down in a bad market to those "bad contracts" Mike Felger so craves, they're trying to stay ahead of the curve by taking the undervalued run prevention route.

Go back and watch that Beltre video again. On nearly every play, Beltre kept those scorchers or dribblers from becoming base hits that could eventually become runs. This isn't rocket science, folks. It's how you play winning baseball, and that's what the Red Sox are going for.

Maybe they aren't doing what many Sox fans want. But no one will remember the bickering of these winter headlines if the Red Sox are holding the hardware in October.

Backdoor Slider Managers & Teams of the Decade

2009-12-11T06:58:00.001-08:00

We've already covered the best position players and pitchers of the Aughts. Today, we're going to run down the finest managers and teams the last ten seasons have offered. I don't have any specific criteria for my managers list. For the teams list, I'm considering only single seasons and those teams had to win the World Series (apologies to the '01 Mariners). Let's begin with the managers list:

5. Bobby Cox - Atlanta ('00-'09) 6x N.L. East Champs - N.L. Manager of the Year in '04, '05 - Record: 892-727 (.550)

Sure, the '90s were really the Braves' decade, only one Atlanta team made it past the NLDS in the last 10 years ('01), and the run of 14 straight division titles ending after '05 with the Braves rising no higher than 3rd place since. But six of those 14 division titles came during this decade when Cox and GM John Schuerholz were still outclassing so much of the National League. Cox still represents the old school, a no-nonsense guy who manages to command both respect and love from younger players and veterans alike. Is it any wonder why guys like Chipper Jones and John Smoltz stayed with Atlanta for so long? They loved Cox, and Smoltz only left because the front office pushed him aside. Part of that love comes from his willingness to stand up for his players. In '07 he passed John McGraw for first in all-time ejections, and unlike McGraw, Cox isn't a jerk. At the very least, Cox has always been entertaining, but players have fed off that intensity for 28 years. Sitting fourth all-time in managerial wins, Cox turns 70 next year and has pledged that '10 will be his last season. It won't be just Braves fans that will miss him.

4. Mike Scioscia - L.A. Angels ('00-'09) '02 World Series Champ, 5x A.L. West Champ, 1x A.L. Wild Card Champ - A.L. Manager of the Year in '02, '09 - Record: 900-720 (.556)

The Angels spent the last few years of the '90s mired in Terry Collins-led mediocrity but the franchise turned over a new leaf with Scioscia, the former All-Star Dodgers catcher, at the dawn of a new decade. In two rebuilding seasons Scioscia completely reinvented the Angels from also-rans into a perennial A.L. force. Behind the awesome power of the Rally Monkey, the Angels rallied their way to the World Series title in '02, and Scoiscia has taken them back to the playoffs five more times since with a rotating cast of players. GMs Bill Stoneham and Tony Reagins have constantly tried to supply Scioscia with the type of players he craves: versatile, fundamentally-sound ones who can grind out 2-1 and 3-2 victories, with the occasional power presence like Vlad Guerrero and Mark Teixeira thrown in. It's always been said that Scioscia prefers a N.L.-style team, but the truth is Scioscia just wants players that know how to win. More often than not, they have. Considering Scioscia is signed through 2018, the Angels are in his sure hands for years to come.

3. Tony La Russa - St. Louis ('00-'09) '06 World Series Champ, '04 N.L. Champ, 6x N.L. Central Champ, 1x N.L. Wild Card Champ - N.L. Manager of the Year in '02 - Record: 913-706 (.564)

When La Russa took an 83-win Cardinals team to a World Series title in '06, it was perhaps the greatest accomplishment in a career littered with milestones. Just ahead of Cox on the all-time wins list, La Russa won his second World Series 15 years after his first, and joined Sparky Anderson as the only managers to win a ring in both leagues. La Russa's enjoyed so much consistent success despite all kinds of changes to the Cardinals roster. Of course, having someone as good as Albert Pujols makes any manager look good. But the hallmark of St. Louis during the La Russa era has been pitching, and much of the credit goes to pitching coach Dave Duncan, who's worked with La Russa since 1983. From the late Darryl Kile through Adam Wainwright, the seven Cardinals playoff teams were driven by pitching and La Russa's creative bullpen configurations. He's not always easy to get along with (just ask Scott Rolen), but any player knows they'll win under La Russa's leadership.

2. Terry Francona - Philadelphia ('00), Boston ('04-'09) '04 and '07 World Series Champs, 4x Wild Card Champ, 1x A.L. East Champ - Record w/Philadelphia: 65-97 (.440), w/Boston: 565-407 (.581)

Not unlike his New England coaching counterpart Bill Belichick, Francona needed to fail before he could succeed. Tito never won more than 77 games in four Philadelphia seasons and was run out of town on a rail in '00. Then came a year in the Cleveland front office, and a year each coaching in Texas and Oakland. Theo Epstein gave Grady Little the heave-ho after '03, and Francona blew the Boston brass away with his interview. Here was a forward-thinking baseball man respected throughout the industry that just needed a chance to succeed. To say Tito's "succeeded" is an understatement. Besides '06, when a talented team was decimated by injuries, the Red Sox earned a playoff spot every season of Francona's tenure. When the chips were down against the Yankees in '04, and when things looked grim against the Indians in '07, he didn't allow his players to give up. He was rewarded both times with eventual World Series sweeps, making him the only manager to win multiple titles in the Aughts. Could I have imagined the Red Sox would have this kind of success when Francona was hired? Probably not. But he's become the best manager in franchise history due to his perfect mix of attributes (calmness, intellect, astute and clear handling of the media, warmth and dedication toward his players) at a time when the front office gave him the game's best talent. A lesser man certainly could have screwed all that up. But not Terry Francona. I hope he manages this team until the day he dies.

1. Joe Torre - N.Y. Yankees ('00-'07), L.A. Dodgers ('08-'09) '00 World Series Champs, '01 & '03 A.L. Champ, 7x A.L. East Champ, 1x A.L. Wild Card Champ, 2x N.L. West Champ - Record w/New York: 773-519 (.598), w/Los Angeles: 179-145 (.552)

The no. 1 manager of the Aughts was also the no. 1 reason why, as a Red Sox fan, it was always so hard to hate the Yankees this decade and most of the last. The Yankees were so often a likable, professional, classy bunch and it began with the most likable, professional, and classy of them all in Joe Torre. Always so grateful in victory, always so graceful in defeat. He was seldom confrontational with anyone, and never looked to start problems. Torre just wanted to win, and do it the right way, and win he did. Teams managed by Torre have made the postseason every year starting in '96, a mind-boggling reality only matched by Cox's 14 straight division titles. Like Francona, he's been blessed with amazing teams. But in the pressure-cookers of New York and Los Angeles, Torre has consistently managed personalities at Phil Jackson-level while commanding respect and an adherence to winning, team-oriented attitudes. It's a testament to his longevity and an undying love for the game. Never a fantastic manager before coming to New York, he survived the wrath of George Steinbrenner longer than anyone, which is no small feat. In L.A. he's presided over a wonderful mix of veterans and youngsters, not to mention Mannywood. With the franchise in turmoil, no one knows how much longer Torre will be around. L.A. is probably his last stop, and he'll deserve every ounce of praise when he retires. He's become the best manager of my lifetime, without a doubt.

Before I get to the teams of the decade, you will notice none of them are N.L. teams. I've railed against the N.L. many times on this blog, but know that A.L. teams won six of the last 10 championships and none of the N.L. teams won more than 92 regular season games. Had the 105-win '04 Cardinals not run into the Red Sox they certainly would be here, and the '07 comeback Rockies were close. I tried to combine regular season and postseason factors here, and the five best A.L. teams were better than any N.L. club. On to the list:

5. 2002 Anaheim Angels - regular season: 99-63, A.L. Wild Card Champs by 6 games - ALDS: 3-1 over NYY - ALCS: 4-1 over MIN - WS: 4-3 over SFG (11-5 postseason record)

Sometimes all you need are some new uniforms, a new manager and some faith. As I mentioned above, Mike Scioscia was in his third season reforming the Angels when all the sudden they were a force to be reckoned with in the A.L. Vets like Garret Anderson, Darin Erstad and lifelong Angel Tim Salmon shined for this club while 25-year-old Troy Glaus provided all the pop they needed. In the rotation, Ramon "Mini-Pedro" Ortiz, Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Appier earned sub-4 ERAs. On June 24, a 23-year-old from Abilene, Texas named John Lackey made his Major League debut and carried the Angels the remainder of the season, going 9-4 with a 3.66 ERA. At the back end was Troy Percival, the fearsome, herky-jerky closer with a 1.92 ERA and 40 saves during the regular season. This was a fun bunch, personified by grinders like Erstad, David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy. Fans came to games armed with those annoying ThunderStix and went wild with every Rally Monkey appearance on the scoreboard. The team rolled through the A.L. playoffs, and a 20-year-old bespectacled Francisco Rodriguez came out of nowhere to dominate hitters with that ungodly curveball. Only Barry Bonds and the Giants stood in their way, and an epic series ensued. Three of the first four games were decided by one run before San Fran issued a 16-4 beatdown in Game 5, and all seemed lost with the Giants up by five late in Game 6. But the power of the Rally Monkey prevailed, the Halos scored six unanswered runs and captured the first World Series title in franchise history the next night. Glaus took home MVP honors by clubbing three homers with a 1.313 OPS in the series, while Lackey became the first rookie starter to win a World Series Game 7 in 93 years. Thus began the decade of success for the Angels, but they haven't reached the heights of '02 since.

4. 2007 Boston Red Sox - regular season: 96-66, A.L. East Champs by 2 games - ALDS: 3-0 over LAA - ALCS: 4-3 over CLE - WS: 4-0 over COL (11-3 playoff record)

This wasn't the same team that won it all in '04, not by a long shot. During the course of '05 and '06, Theo Epstein jettisoned many aging members of the '04 squad and infused the Red Sox with young draftees and hungry veterans from both sides of the Pacific. The '06 season ended in a bitter malaise of injuries, so armed with new blood like Daisuke Matsuzaka, J.D. Drew, Hideki Okajima and Julio Lugo, the Red Sox set out for something better. Dustin Pedroia struggled so much those first two months, but Francona stuck with him, and he wound up Rookie of the Year. Mike Lowell experienced a career renaissance, batting .324 and playing sterling defense at third base as the true team MVP of the Sox that year. Coming off a 54-dinger season, David Ortiz had to settle for 35 with a 1.066 OPS while still at the zenith of his hitting prowess. Josh Beckett bounced back from inconsistency in '06 to blow away everyone in his path in '07, evolving into a true ace with 20 victories, a 3.27 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 200 innings while anchoring a staff with a league-best 3.87 ERA. Jonathan Papelbon allowed just 12 earned runs all season and secured his spot as the game's best closer. In the playoffs the Red Sox found themselves in familiar territory, down 3-1 in the ALCS to the Indians. But Beckett lifted them up in Game 5, and Drew, who'd experienced a terrible first season in Boston both professionally and personally, crushed that grand slam early in Game 6 off Fausto Carmona. They feasted on the bad Cleveland bullpen in Game 7, and then swept the Rockies for the crown. It was never easy with the '07 Sox, as so many players battled injuries, ineffectiveness and expectations, but they stood tall once again. The best moment came when Jon Lester, who'd been diagnosed with lymphoma just a year before, pitched the Red Sox to victory in the clinching Series game.

3. 2009 New York Yankees - regular season: 103-59, A.L. East Champs by 8 games - ALDS: 3-0 over MIN - ALCS: 4-2 over LAA - WS: 4-2 over PHI (11-4 playoff record)

So far, each team on this list had to overcome some type of disappointment the previous season to prevail with a World Series title. For the Yankees, '08 was Joe Girardi's first year at the helm and an older Yankees squad experienced their fair share of injuries, missing the playoffs for the first time since the strike. In an winter of down contracts, GM Brian Cashman spent like a drunken sailor, but spent it on all the right guys for a change, bringing in CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37 ERA in 230 innings), A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04 ERA in 207 innings) and Mark Teixeira (39 HR, 122 RBI, .948 OPS). The '09 season was far from a cakewalk for the Yankees; they stumbled out of the gate, Alex Rodriguez dealt with drama after drama, they lacked a fifth starter for the entire season and strong options in front of Mariano Rivera until Phil Hughes was converted to a full-time reliever. But they hit their stride in the summer, and a new, hitter-friendly park spurred an offense that ranked first in the A.L. in hits, runs, homers, OBP and OPS. Girardi employed a three-man rotation in the playoffs that somehow worked despite facing the Phillies and Angels, the second- and third-best teams of '09. Late in World Series Game 4, when it appeared the Phillies would rally to tie the series, Johnny Damon stole second off Brad Lidge and then stole third when he noticed no one was covering the base in the over-shifted infield. Lidge imploded, the Yankees prevailed, then took the title in six games. Unlike every Yankees team since '01, this was an amusing, loose group that captivated fans far outside the Bronx. Hell, even A-Rod finally had a good time, and it showed with his clutch playoff performance. Despite some deficiencies in pitching and a manger who often looked overmatched, this was the finest Yankees team since their '98 juggernaut. With that said, I will now take a kerosene bath and bring my Zippo with me.

2. 2005 Chicago White Sox - regular season: 99-63, A.L. Central Champs by 6 games - ALDS: 3-0 over BOS - ALCS: 4-1 over LAA - WS: 4-0 over HOU (11-1 postseason record)

The baseball gods were smiling upon long-downtrodden teams in the middle of this decade. The Red Sox won their first World Series in 86 years in '04, and a year later, the White Sox and their fans were blessed with a championship club for the first time since 1917. They'd sucked for most of their history, yet for the entirety of the '05 season these South Side warriors were the team to beat, and few could. Fiery Ozzie Guillen was in his sophomore season as White Sox manager and while his ubiquitous personality made waves off the field, the players did most of their talking on it. Paul Konerko hit 40 homers and Jermaine Dye 31, while leadoff man Scott Podsednik swiped 59 bags. Podsednik and center fielder Aaron Rowand tracked down each fly ball with reckless abandon for an excellent defensive group. While they may have represented the end of an era for great MLB teams on the offensive side (they were just 11th in the A.L. in team OBP at .322, adopting what Guillen called a "smart ball" approach), their pitching was undeniably awesome. Their top four starters (Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland and Jose Contreras) all made either 32 or 33 stars, all had ERAs under 4, and only Contreras exceeded 60 walks. Longtime starter Dustin Hermanson was converted to closer, notching 34 saves with a 2.04 ERA before injuring his back in September and losing his job to 24-year-old flamethrower Bobby Jenks. The staff dominated October, most impressively in the ALCS. Outside of 2/3 innings by Neal Cotts to finish the Game 1 loss to the Angels (the team's only postseason defeat), the four aforementioned starters pitched the entirety of the series, all four victories coming on complete games. In the Series against Houston, Podsednik blasted the Game 2 walkoff (he hit no homers during the season), Geoff Blum provided the heroics in the epic 14-inning Game 3, and in perfect '05 White Sox fashion, Juan Uribe made a fantastic play up the middle to finish off the sweep in Game 4. Cubs fans everywhere are still shaking their heads.

1. 2004 Boston Red Sox - regular season: 98-64, A.L. Wild Card Champs by six games - ALDS: 3-0 over ANA - ALCS: 4-3 over NYY - WS: 4-0 over STL (11-3 postseason record)

Hard to believe it's been five years, huh? Of the 25 members of the '04 World Series roster, only Ortiz, Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek remain in Boston, and by '11 even they'll probably be gone. But, no matter how much they may have angered Red Sox fans after the fact, all 25 were part of the most amazing sports story of my lifetime, an iconic piece of American history and the greatest baseball team of the last 10 years. That story begins in October '03, when Grady left Pedro in too long and Aaron Bleepin' Boone took the Yankees to the World Series, leading to another winter of discontent. Theo Epstein got to work, spent Thanksgiving with the Schillings and returned home with his ace. The '03 Sox lacked a closer, so in came Keith Foulke, who'd wind up tossing a whopping 83 regular season innings with a 2.17 ERA. Alex Rodriguez nearly hopped aboard, but went to New York instead. Nonetheless, Boston was an offensive powerhouse, leading the A.L. in runs, average, OBP and OPS, with Ortiz and Manny Ramirez each topping 40 HR and 130 RBI. The starting pitching quintet of Schilling, Martinez, Wakefield, Derek Lowe and Bronson Arroyo started all but five games in both the regular season and the playoffs. Just reaching the playoffs was a concern for much of the season's first half. We all remember the Vartiek-Rodriguez brawl, but the sea change came a week later when Epstein bravely dealt franchise hero Nomar Garciaparra for veterans Orlando Cabrera, Doug Mientkiewicz and Dave Roberts. Sitting at 56-47 on August 1, the revamped Red Sox went 42-18 the rest of the way. They gelled unlike any other Red Sox team, unifying behind free spirits like Ramirez, Cabrera, Johnny Damon and Kevin Millar. I was at Fenway on a misty August night when an injury to Mark Bellhorn forced Mientkiewicz to play second base for just the second time in his career. He didn't complain, and the Red Sox still won, 8-4. It was the best time to ever be a Red Sox fan, and it would only get better. Ortiz walked-off the Angels series with a Game 3, 10th-inning blast over the Monster. For the second straight year, the Yankees were waiting in the ALCS. Everyone knew it was over after the 19-8 Game 3 demolishing. Everyone, except the Red Sox, and specifically Millar, who was telling everyone who wanted (or didn't want) to listen that New York couldn't let them win Game 4. Roberts swiped second off Rivera in the ninth, Bill Mueller brought him home, and then Ortiz found the bullpen in the 12th. You know the rest; Papi broke his bat in the 14th in Game 5 to keep it going, Schilling's bloody sock made its debut in Game 6, then Damon hit two blasts and Lowe, who wasn't supposed to start in the playoffs, pitched to victory in Game 7, capping the greatest comeback in sports history. Yet there was still one mountain left to climb. The '04 Cardinals were a force, a 105-win behemoth with no weaknesses. That was until the World Series, however. Only Albert Pujols, Edgar Renteria and Larry Walker proved they had a pulse. In the final three games, Sox pitchers allowed three runs, and when Damon went deep in the first inning of Game 4, it might as well have been a grand slam, because that's what it felt like. Foulke, who allowed one run in 14 postseason innings (and never pitched anything like that again), fielded a Renteria grounder and the '04 Red Sox passed into legend. What the Red Sox accomplished went so far beyond winning eight straight October games and breaking an 86-year string of disappointment. They untied an entire region, captivated an entire country and accomplished a comeback that will be talked about for generations to come. How could something like this happen? How could 25 guys who play a game so deeply affect millions who will never meet them? How could one of their most prominent fans write a book called "Now I Can Die In Peace" and nobody thought he was exaggerating? It's probably because baseball always meant a little too much to the people of New England, caused in part by a rampant desire to shake the Curse. Couple that with a skilled, exceedingly likable team, and the recipe for baseball romance was in place. For once, the Red Sox had a team that knew how to win, didn't feel sorry for itself down 3-0 against the Yankees, and refused to let up until the trophy was theirs. They were, more than anything, a team, in every sense, down to the very end. The '04 Red Sox didn't stay together past that final out and the ensuing duckboat ride. But trust me. There's no way the '04 Red Sox can ever die.

Thanks for reading.

Winter Meetings Wonderland

2009-12-07T07:45:00.000-08:00

I'll take a break from my end-of-decade posts to update on some hot stove happenings. The Winter Meetings, that annual rite of the snowy offseason, start today in Indianapolis. As much as I love the excitement of baseball talk dominating the airwaves in December, lots of times the Winter Meetings are a bunch of sizzle without any steak.

Two years ago, rumors were flying in every possible direction about Johan Santana, and some were even reporting a deal with Boston was just about done. It didn't happen, and it was another two months before Santana relocated to Queens. The groundwork is often laid for big deals, but big action often waits until just before and just after Christmas.

So for this week, take some advice from Marvin Gaye: Believe half of what you see, and none of what you hear.

One deal finalized this week was the Red Sox signing of Marco Scutaro, a Venezuelan shortstop who two years ago was a utility man on bad Oakland team. Now, one of baseball's elite teams will be asking him to be their shortstop for the next two seasons.

I wasn't thrilled about the possibility of Scutaro coming on board earlier in the offseason, mostly because he'd be costing the Red Sox their first round pick (29th overall) as a Type A free agent. However, whatever reluctance existed about that dissipated for myself, and probably for Theo Epstein, after the Braves signed Billy Wagner and handed Boston the 20th selection.

Scutaro is cashing to the tune of $12.5 million over two years mostly because of his career season in '09, when he posted these numbers (all career highs): .282/.379/.409/.789, 12 homers, 35 doubles 100 runs, 162 hits, 14 steals, 90 walks and 235 total bases. He did this while playing just above average defense at shortstop (UZR/150: 0.9). The caveat: Scutaro enjoyed this season at age 33.

I think it'd be a lot to ask for Scutaro to put up these numbers again. But he's a patient contact hitter with excellent discipline (he made contact on 93.3 percent of his swings last season, tied with Luis Castillo for best in the Majors), and that lends itself to continued success. He ran into some issues with plantar fasciitis late last year, but it wasn't enough to scare Boston away.

At the very least, if Scutaro struggles, Red Sox fans can't complain that they spent too much money on him like they did with Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. In a winter when they needed a shortstop with almost no good options on the table, I think the Sox did the best they could and aren't tying themselves down to a long-term deal as a result.

A few other thoughts:

Newsflash: The Phillies are awesome, and just got better. They pounced on ex-Phil Placido Polanco to play third base for the next three seasons at just $6 million per year. He might not be as strong defensively as Pedro Feliz, but does a lot more with the bat. It would be hard to imagine a better No. 8 hitter for a strong N.L. team given his contact hitting and situational prowess. They now have former All Stars or All Star-caliber players at every position, a terrific bench and two lefty starters capable of being aces. Now if they could only do something about that bullpen...

Has anyone been able to explain why the Dodgers didn't offer arbitration to Randy Wolf? Behind John Lackey, he's easily the best free agent starter available and will probably be paid around $10 million per year if not by the Dodgers than some other team for sure. It's not like Wolf would have accepted an arbitration offer, he's nearly guaranteed to get multi-year offers from around baseball. So why not go for it and collect the two draft picks? It really made no sense, unless there's something I'm missing.

Looks like a four-year, $36 million deal for Chone Figgins and the Mariners will be finalized sometime this week. Even if Adrian Beltre were to somehow accept the M's offer for arbitration, they could still make it work, with Figgins likely to supplant Jose Lopez at second base as long as they find a taker. Or they can just throw him in left field. Either way, it's a fantastic signing that makes their division rival Angels significantly weaker. They could swap third basemen and wind up with Beltre as a result. There's a lot of buzz surrounding Seattle as they're apparently flush with cash and might make runs at Jason Bay, John Lackey and look to extend Felix Hernandez.

I'm still formulating an opinion on whether I'd like the Red Sox to re-sign Bay or make the big run at Matt Holliday. Holliday is a better long-term investment, but Bay has proven he can handle the heat of Boston. Four years is the most Bay deserves to be offered while I don't think I'd hesitate to give Holliday five or six. Either way the Red Sox probably need to sign one or the other because otherwise they'll be, you know, screwed.

Unless something epic happens between now and then, my next post will be an all-decade twofer: the five best managers and five best teams of the Aughts. It'll be good. I promise.

Backdoor Slider Pitchers of the Decade

2009-12-03T07:29:00.001-08:00

Last time, I ran down my list of the best position players of the Aughts. Now, I present to you my picks for the best hurlers of the last 10 seasons. I've decided to combine starting pitchers and relievers in one post instead of doing separate ones. Hopefully you know my feelings on relief pitchers. They don't deserve their own post on being the "best" of anything.

As for the starters, I'm doing an All-Decade Starting Rotation, the five starters you'd most want to take the ball this decade. Like with my position players, I required these guys appear in at least seven-and-a-half seasons over the last ten, which meant they needed to pitch at least 1,500 innings (Pedro Martinez missed by 32 innings. Sorry, man). The statistics are 162-game averages. I had to adjust the years I included for one pitcher in my rotation, and I'll explain that shortly.

For the relievers, you're getting three and that's it. See if you can guess who they are.

The Backdoor Slider Pitchers of the Decade:

THE STARTERS OF THE AUGHTS

NO. 1 STARTER: Johan Santana (1580 IP in considered seasons) 17-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.064 WHIP, 229 K, 57 BB, 4.07 K/BB, 1.0 HR/9, 9.3 K/9 - 2x A.L. Cy Young Winner, 4x All Star, '07 Gold Glove

Before I get to describing the awesomeness of Johan, an explanation is in order. These stats are collected from '02 through '09. Since Santana was primarily a reliever during his first two seasons in Minnesota, I elected not to include them for this ranking. He started 14 of 27 appearances in '02 and 18 of 45 appearances in '03. I did decide to include those, especially since he threw 158 innings in '03. Anyway, Johan became Johan in '04, when he compiled 265 punchouts in 228 innings, led the league in ERA (2.61) and WHIP (a positively insane 0.921), ran away with the Cy Young Award and allowed just one run in two ALDS starts against New York. The '04 season began a three-year run of Santana leading the A.L. in strikeouts, ERA+, WHIP, hits per nine and K per nine three times, ERA twice, wins and innings pitched once, and got a second Cy in '06. Outside of Pedro Martinez from '97 through '00, this was the best stretch for a starting pitcher over the last 20 years. I can't say this emphatically enough: during that period, Johan's change-up was the single greatest off-speed pitch I've ever seen. It didn't matter who he was facing, what the count was or what park he was in. That change-up was certain death. No one could hit it. After '07, he forced the Twins hand and left for Queens, signed a mega-deal and did not disappoint in his first N.L. season, predictably leading the league with a career-low 2.53 ERA in a career-high 234.1 innings. He finally broke down late in '09, but should be healthy and ready to go at the dawn of a new decade. I hope Santana has the opportunity to shine in the postseason before he loses his effectiveness, God knows he's earned it. He was simply the finest pitcher I saw over the last ten years. Nothing about him would suggest otherwise.

NO. 2: Randy Johnson (1885 IP) 18-10, 3.34 ERA, 1.114 WHIP, 262 K, 57 BB, 4.51 K/BB, 1.0 HR/9, 10.4 K/9 - 3x N.L. Cy Young Winner, 3x All Star, '01 World Series Co-MVP

What a career for the Big Unit. Johnson wasn't nearly as consistent over the last 10 years as he was the previous 10, and his position on this list is predicated on his unreal performance from '00 through '02 for Arizona. Unit's averages: 255 innings, 21 wins, 351 K, 4.83 K/BB and an eye-bulging 12.5 K/9. He also compiled 19 complete games and nine shutouts, in addition to two each in the postseason. Johnson famously earned three victories during the epic '01 World Series and shared MVP honors with Curt Schilling. Between the NLCS and World Series that year, RJ was 5-0, allowed five ER in 33.1 innings, struck out 38 and walked just six. Unit never regained his previous dominance after getting hurt in '03, but did toss a perfect game in Atlanta and finished second in Cy balloting in '04, pitched solidly in two tumultuous seasons in New York, won 11 games at age 44 back in Arizona, and won his 300th game last summer for the Giants. For so many reasons, we'll never see another Randy Johnson. At 6', 10", he was the most intimidating pitcher of his generation, with that mean, mustachioed stare and a mess of arms and legs coming at the hitter. I've heard it described that when RJ released a pitch he looked like he could reach out a grab the opposing batter. During his Arizona prime, his 100 mph fastball was complimented so well by that hard, diving slider. How lefty hitters even made contact on him always amazed me. His tough demeanor on the mound was backed up by a surly attitude off it, but Johnson was never in baseball to make friends. He just wanted to strike people out. Part of the dying breed of "give me the ball and I'll give you nine" pitchers, Unit might be the last to ever win 300 games and belongs with Lefty Grove, Warren Spahn and Sandy Koufax on the Mt. Rushmore of Southpaws.

NO. 3: Roy Halladay (1883 IP) 18-9, 3.40 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 176 K, 47 BB, 3.74 K/BB, 0.7 HR/9, 6.7 K/9 - '03 A.L. Cy Young Winner, 6x All Star

Halladay has been the definitive workhorse of his era, throwing at least 220 innings each of the last four seasons, and his 266 innings during his '03 CYA season was the most by any pitcher in the Aughts. It's one thing to be a workhorse and another to be a transcendent starting pitcher, and Halladay is both. After showing so much promise in '98 and '99, Halladay was a disaster in '00 for Toronto, sporting a 10.64 ERA in 67 MLB innings. As a result, the Jays sent him to Single-A to essentially start over. In '01, he pitched at every level of the minors, employed his uber-deceptive three-quarter delivery, started sinking his fastball and began his run of excellence in the A.L. East. Halladay is part of that dying breed I mentioned above, throwing a whopping 47 complete games in the Aughts with nine each the past two years, as well as 14 total shutouts for the decade. Even though his reputation comes as a ground ball artist, Halladay's actually become more of a strikeout guy as his career's progressed, going over 200 the last two years. His control is another calling card, finishing with a K/BB over five on four occasions. Like Unit, Halladay is physically imposing at 6', 6", and each in his wide array of pitches are deadly. The biggest injustice for Halladay is the fact that he's never pitched in the playoffs, and really hasn't come close. With one year remaining on his contract in Toronto, he'll either be traded to a contender this winter or walk after '10 for a big deal. He was nearly part of Philadelphia's run to the N.L. pennant in '09, but had to settle for fourth place in Toronto yet again. Still, I have little doubt he'd be excellent on a good team, and I'd feel confident giving him the ball in a Game 7 situation.

NO. 4: Roy Oswalt (1803 IP) 17-9, 3.23 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, 181 K, 51 BB, 3.58 K/BB, 0.8 HR/9, 7.4 K/9 - 3x All Star, '05 NLCS MVP

You probably didn't expect to see Oswalt here. But looking at the numbers, he's been so ridiculously consistent that it would have been impossible to keep him off. Yet Oswalt's never really stood out besides a few well-known flashes of brilliance. His sterling rookie season in '01 (14-3, 2.73 ERA, 144 K in 141.2 innings) was overshadowed by Albert Pujols and his own historic rookie campaign. A few years later, his efforts were again overlooked by the high-profile tenures of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte in Houston. Since going to the World Series in '05, the Astros have struggled, and Oswalt's accomplishments have flown under the radar. Not that Oswalt particularly cares about recognition. He hails from tiny Weir, Mississippi, is married to his high school sweetheart, and when his career ends he'll probably go back there in quiet anonymity. But that's the way Oswalt likes it, a simple Southern man with incredible gifts. His small, six-foot frame surprisingly supports that demonic fastball. Like his former teammate Clemens, Oswalt mastered the rising heater to put hitters away. He's always depended primarily on that fastball, but his hard, biting curve can be equally lethal. Oswalt had everything going in the '05 NLCS against St. Louis. Remember when everyone and their brother said the Cardinals would win the final two games in St. Louis after Pujols' devastating blast off Brad Lidge in Game 5? I knew better. Oswalt had dismantled the Cards in Game 2 with steely confidence, and I knew he'd do it again. He did, allowing one run, striking out six and walking one in seven innings, securing the most important victory in franchise history at its most crucial juncture. That, my friends, is what we call an ace.

NO. 5: CC Sabathia (1889 IP) 16-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.232 WHIP, 188 K, 70 BB, 2.69 K/BB, 0.8 HR/9, 7.6 K/9 - '07 A.L. Cy Young Winner, 3x All Star, '09 ALCS MVP

Sabathia should be higher on this list. After winning 17 games and putting up a league-best 7.4 H/9 his rookie year, this hefty lefty spent the next five seasons showing touches of his potential but never reaching it. It wasn't like Sabathia sucked, posting a 3.87 ERA and throwing over 188 innings each year. We just knew he could be an ace. Finally, in '07, he reached the top of the mountain. He led the Indians to baseball's best record by going 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA and walking just 37 with an ungodly 5.65 K/BB in 241 innings, by far the most of his career to that point. Blown out from carrying the load, Sabathia bombed in the playoffs, allowing 12 runs on 17 hits in two ALCS starts against the Red Sox. Both the Indians and Sabathia got off to a lackluster start in '08, so the impending free agent was shipped north to Milwaukee. The results were astonishing. No pitcher in the Aughts was ever as dominating over a short stretch as Sabathia against National League hitters. Seven of Sabathia's 17 regular season starts for the Brewers were complete games, three for shutouts. He wound up going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and threw 253 innings total for the year. He actually came in sixth in N.L. MVP balloting. Once again, however, he was wiped from pitching the Brewers into the playoffs and struggled in his only NLDS start. The Yankees came calling that winter, and he signed the biggest contract ever for a pitcher at $161 million. In '09 Sabathia pitched like an ace all regular season, and for the first time, the playoffs as well, bringing home a World Series title. He's got another six years in New York to continue being that ace we knew he'd be.

THE CLOSERS OF THE AUGHTS

Mariano Rivera - 42 SV, 2.08 ERA, 0.960 WHIP, 70 K, 15 BB, 4.88 K/BB - 9x All Star, '03 ALCS MVP

Trevor Hoffman - 46 SV, 2.77 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 52 K, 12 BB, 4.22 K/BB - 5x All Star

Billy Wagner - 35 SV, 2.40 ERA, 0.990 WHIP, 70 K, 17 BB, 4.11 K/BB - 5x All Star

Did you guess right? If you've been paying attention at all over the last 10 years, you should have. I'm sure you at least got Rivera, the greatest relief pitcher in baseball history who just turned 40 and is showing no signs of wear or rust, that cutter still as unhittable as ever. Sure, he provided two of the decades' most prominent collapses ('01 WS Game 7, '04 ALCS Game 4), but you can't argue about his October dominance. Mo pitched an incredible 85.2 postseason innings during the Aughts and allowed just nine earned runs for a 0.95 ERA, not to mention 26 saves. Hoffman hasn't been nearly as decorated, but just about as great. The change-up guru had a mini-renaissance in '09 with Milwaukee after 16 years in San Diego, finishing with a 1.83 ERA and 37 saves at age 41. Just three years earlier, Hoffman was second in the Cy voting after putting up 46 saves and a 0.968 WHIP. Not too shabby for the all-time saves king. As for Wagner, fans in several cities know how frustrating he can be in big spots, but the lefty flamethrower is reliable over the long haul. He's never put up worse than a 2.85 ERA in a full, healthy season and whenever he pitches his love for competing is palpable. I'd also like to thank him for signing with the Braves and giving Boston the 20th pick in the '10 draft.

Please let me know what you think of this list, or the previous one. Next up in this series will be the best teams of the decade. I'll likely have a Winter Meetings post before then.

Backdoor Slider Players of the Decade

2009-11-25T06:26:00.000-08:00

We've reached the end of professional baseball's 14th full decade of action. It's time for some lists. (Have we decided on a name for the decade that's about to end? The Double-Zeroes? The Double-O's? Or my favorite, the Aughts? I'm going with the Aughts.)

I've followed baseball in the Aughts with rabid intensity, from beginning to end. Since I love lists, I decided this was the perfect time, between now and New Year's Eve, to reveal my picks for bests and worsts of the decade. We'll begin with the top position players of the last 10 seasons.

My only qualifying criteria for this list: players must have appeared in 1,200 games this decade. My rationale is that number equates to roughly 7.5 seasons, and to be considered one of the best players in a decade, that seems like a fair number. A lot of excellent players were kept off this list as a result, but hopefully the 2010s will be their decade. Players are eligible for positions where they played the majority of their games. I've created first, second and third teams, with extended sections on first-teamers and brief sections on second and third-teamers.

I decided the best way to compare players and rank them was to use 162-game averages. It wasn't fair to use season averages when some guys missed almost entire seasons due to injury. Missed time is not reflected as deeply in the 162-game averages, but it still gives the best sense about that player's talents during what should be the best part of their career. I tried to stick with stats and awards for these rankings, but players that were part of excellent teams had an advantage. The averages listed with each player are in this order: batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage/on-base plus slugging.

One final note before we dive in: I didn't take alleged or confirmed steroid use into consideration in formulating this lineup. Three members of my final team are tied to PEDs in one way or another. I won't rehash my feelings on PEDs here, but what happened on the field happened. We can't change any of it. All we have are the games and our memories. Just know that Barry Bonds won't appear here because he played fewer than 1,000 games this decade and for no other reason.

Without further ado, the Backdoor Slider Players of the Decade:

CATCHER: Jorge Posada (1302 GP) .283/.386/.492/.878 - 26 HR, 102 RBI, 85 R, 156 H, 2 SB - 5x All Star - 2x World Series Champion ('00, '09)

Joe Girardi left the Yankees after winning the '99 World Series, allowing Posada to blossom as one of the premier hitting catchers in baseball. In '00, he caught a career-high 142 games, slugged 28 homers and helped propel a somewhat-mediocre Yankees team a World Series title. Posada has been so reliable since, hitting just about anywhere in the order and displaying power from either side of the plate. He's never been great defensively, however he's dealt with so many different pitchers and the Yankees only missed the playoffs once all decade. In '08, in the second year of a four-year, $52 million contract, Posada went down with a debilitating shoulder injury and many feared his days as a catcher were over. This would not be the case. He caught 100 games in '09, hit 22 home runs and started every non-A.J. Burnett postseason game as the Yankees finished the Aughts with World Series title bookends. While two other Yankees on this first team will be more decorated by history, Posada is just as much of an icon for a generation of Yankees fans who know him as their catcher. He also has massive, comically-huge ears.

2ND TEAM: Ivan Rodriguez (1219 GP) .298/.335/.477/.812 - 22 HR, 86 RBI, 88 R, 184 H, 9 SB - 6x All Star, 5x Gold Glove, '03 NLCS MVP - World Series Champion ('03)

3RD TEAM: Jason Varitek (1208 GP) .257/.347/.431/.778 - 20 HR, 80 RBI, 69 R, 141 H, 3 SB - 3x All Star, 1 Gold Glove - 2x World Series Champion ('04, '07)

There weren't many catchers that qualified under my 1,200 game rule. As a matter of fact, these three were pretty much the only ones. That's quite telling about the demands of the position in the modern game. I gave Posada the nod over Pudge because of the former's consistency, and I think Pudge's best work came in the decade before. Pudge has bounced around a bit over the last few seasons, even playing with Posada in '08. I'd rather Varitek was bouncing around at this point, but the Red Sox and their fans aren't so lucky.

FIRST BASE: Albert Pujols (1399 GP) .334/.427/.628/1.055 - 42 HR, 129 RBI, 124 R, 199 H, 7 SB - 3x N.L. MVP, '01 N.L. ROY, 8x All Star, 1 Gold Glove, '04 NLCS MVP - World Series Champion ('06)

I highly doubt the Cardinals knew what they were getting when their head scout announced via conference call that Pujols would be their 13th round selection in the '99 draft. A little over 10 years later, we're discussing Pujols in the same breath with guys like Ruth, Aaron, Mays and Williams. Don't for a second believe that's hyperbole. His '01 rookie campaign was one of the best in history while playing at least 39 games at four different positions. Moved to first permanently in '04, Pujols is baseball's best defensive first baseman not named Youkilis. Pujols clubbed the famous home run in the '05 NLCS that briefly destroyed Brad Lidge's career. He was the leader of a ragtag '06 Cardinals championship crew that shocked the baseball world. He's only finished lower than fourth in the N.L. MVP voting once. Since overcoming some elbow issues, Pujols has entered into legend over the past two years, sending opposing pitchers into shaking fits and causing many an opposing manager to go gray. Extrapolating his numbers over another ten years, Pujols could hold every relevant offensive record before age 40. Albert Pujols is the Player of the Aughts. He might wind up as the Player of the Teens, too.

2ND TEAM: Todd Helton (1466 GP) .331/.436/.569/1.006 - 29 HR, 109 RBI, 113 R, 195 H, 3 SB - 5x All Star, 3x Gold Glove

3RD TEAM: Lance Berkman (1473 GP) .300/.413/.559/.972 - 34 HR, 113 RBI, 106 R, 171 H, 9 SB - 5x All Star

Helton's been so good for so long that I'm sure he wishes Pujols never existed and everyone could remember him as the best first baseman this decade. Actually, that's probably not true because Helton seems like the nicest guy. Berkman presented an interesting case for me. He actually played 850 games in the outfield during this time and just 623 at first base, but his outfield games were spread amongst all three positions. He spent the majority of his time this decade at first base. This unfortunately came at the expense of Derrek Lee.

SECOND BASE: Jeff Kent (1266 GP) .300/.371/.518/.889 - 28 HR, 109 RBI, 97 R, 183 H, 6 SB - '00 N.L. MVP, 4x All Star

I settled on Kent because I didn't feel like any other second baseman made as lasting an impact this decade. Kent did all sorts of damage to pitchers throughout his entire career, and reached his apex from '00-'02, his final three seasons in San Francisco. He won the '00 MVP, averaged 31 homers, posted a .943 OPS and was the emotional leader of a Giants team that came within nine outs of winning the 2002 World Series. He famously clashed with Mr. Bonds and departed for Houston after that season. Everyone forgets, for obvious reasons, the classic '04 NLCS between the 'Stros and Cards, and Kent slugged a Game 5 walk-off dinger in Houston to set up the dramatic final two games in St. Louis. In L.A., he rounded out his career playing second base for a predominantly young team, posting excellent hitting campaigns until hanging 'em up after the '08 NLCS. Kent was never the best defensively, but it should say something that he played 116 games at the keystone corner at age 40. I'm leaving out the elephant in the room here: Kent was a gaping asshole. But he was also a damn good ballplayer.

2ND TEAM: Alfonso Soriano (1313 GP) .279/.326/.510/.836 - 36 HR, 94 RBI, 106 R, 186 H, 26 SB - 7x All Star

3RD TEAM: Luis Castillo (1346 GP) .298/.374/.362/.735 - 4 HR, 45 RBI, 99 R, 186 H, 34 SB - 3x All Star, 3x Gold Glove - '03 World Series Champion

I thought long and hard about this one, and in the end, I just couldn't reward Soriano as the best second baseman of the Aughts. He was a notorious butcher at second before his move to the outfield, he's always struck out way too much for anyone's good, and no manager has ever been able to figure out where to hit him in the order. He also openly defied Frank Robinson before a spring training game, refusing to take the field as an outfielder. That's heinously unforgivable. Enjoy the last five years of that contract, Cubs fans.

THIRD BASE: Alex Rodriguez (1524 GP) .304/.401/.587/.988 - 47 HR, 132 RBI, 127 R, 185 H, 19 SB - 3x A.L. MVP, 8x All Star, 2x Gold Glove (as SS) - '09 World Series Champion

It's been quite a decade for A-Rod. Consider these ten years: he played his final season in Seattle; signed the biggest contract in baseball history for the Rangers; posted three phenomenal (enhanced) years in Arlington; forced a trade to the Red Sox that was nullified by the union; was eventually dealt to New York for Soriano; switched positions; collapsed mid-way through the ALCS and turned an entire sport against him when he slapped the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's hand; won the '05 MVP; was forced to hit 8th in the '06 ALDS against Detroit and cemented his reputation as a playoff choke artist; signed an even bigger contract than his previous one after winning the '07 MVP; dumped his wife and dated Madonna; revealed that he'd used steroids and every Yankees fan "permanently" disowned him; started dating Kate Hudson, settled down as a baseball player and a human being, shed the playoff goat tag and finally earned a World Series ring in '09 while Yankees fans conveniently forgot they hated him. Phew. A-Rod is only 34, has eight years left on his contract, and could wind up battling Pujols atop the record books soon. Now that he has a ring, I'm intrigued to see where his career goes.

2ND TEAM: Chipper Jones (1387 GP) .311/.413/.547/.960 - 32 HR, 108 RBI, 108 R, 180 H, 7 SB - 3x All Star

3RD TEAM: Aramis Ramirez (1320 GP) .289/.347/.513/.861 - 32 HR, 113 RBI, 87 R, 177 H, 2 SB - 2x All Star

Have you ever met a baseball fan that didn't like Chipper Jones? For fans around my age I think he represents the type of player we miss from our early years watching. He's been with only one franchise for almost 20 years, and we've seen less and less of that type of loyalty . You have to respect a guy who wins a batting title at age 36 while playing through all kinds of injuries. We're heading into a golden era for third basemen (Longoria, Wright and Zimmerman to name a few) and I hope they model their careers after Larry Wayne Jones.

SHORTSTOP: Derek Jeter (1500 GP) .317/.387/.456/.844 - 18 HR, 79 RBI, 118 R, 210 H, 24 SB - 8x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, '00 World Series MVP - 2x World Series Champion ('00, '09)

Is Jeter overrated? In many of my angry anti-Yankees rants through the years I've probably said yes. But it seems like we've gotten to a point where we've argued about whether Jeter's overrated that he might now be underrated. He's played in at least 150 games each of the last six seasons. He posted an incredible campaign in '06 and should have been the MVP, collecting 214 hits and driving in 97 runs with an even .900 OPS. His detractors constantly rile against his defense, but he was solid if non-Gold Glove worthy and it's rare for a 35-year-old shortstop to actually improve his defense. There's so many intangible factors that have helped his legend grow, and it's the impossible-to-quantify stuff that often causes Jeter arguments. Where you stand on things like "clutch performances," "leadership qualities" or "annoying fist-pumps" helps determine how you view him. But all this leads to something undeniable: Jeter has been the most consistent player on the most consistent franchise in baseball. That's the real reason why teammates, opposing players, the media, Yankees fans and non-fans alike respect him.

2ND TEAM: Jimmy Rollins (1406 GP) .274/.329/.439/.768 - 17 HR, 72 RBI, 109 R, 188 H, 38 SB - '07 N.L. MVP, 3x All Star, 3x Gold Glove - '08 World Series Champion

3RD TEAM: Miguel Tejada (1581 GP) .297/.347/.481/.827 - 26 HR, 107 RBI, 98 R, 190 H, 3 SB - '02 A.L. MVP, 6x All Star

Rollins earned second team status by being a better all-round player than the better-hitting Tejada. J-Roll experienced his ups and downs with Philly and their fans through the years, but he's a flashy, fun player who I love to root for. I've personally never been a big Miggy fan. The guy leaves a great team in Oakland for $72 million and a lousy team in Baltimore, then spends every winter demanding a trade? As if he didn't know what he was getting into? I wish the O's had kept him on principle.

LEFT FIELD: Manny Ramirez (1358 GP) .317/.419/.599/1.018 - 42 HR, 132 RBI, 112 R, 186 H, 2 SB - 9x All Star, '04 World Series MVP - 2x World Champion ('04, '07)

Oh, Manny. Has baseball ever produced such an enigma, such a savant, such a talent trapped inside such an unpredictable persona? That's the first of so many questions around Manuel Aristides Ramirez. Has he always gotten along with teammates? No. Have his antics, at one time or another, pissed off everyone who cares about baseball? Probably. Is he horrendous in the field? No doubt. Did he cheat, and worse yet, was he stupid enough to get caught? Of course. But deep down, as a fan, would you want him on your team? If you say no, you never watched the guy, especially in his Fenway prime. I can honestly say that when Manny was motivated and healthy, I've never seen a better right-handed hitter. That swing. A picture of perfection, spraying the ball to all fields. He thrived under pressure, hitting .338 with 16 homers in the postseason this decade. Manny reached his zenith once he was paired with David Ortiz, and from '03 through '05 the Red Sox were an unstoppable offensive force because of their two vaunted sluggers. He shoved his way out of town, and was suspended for steroids last year. But you know what? The Dodgers fans didn't care. Manny Ramirez is that good. There's no use in denying it.

2ND TEAM: Carlos Lee (1513 GP) .291/.346/.506/.852 - 32 HR, 110 RBI, 94 R, 180 H, 12 SB - 3x All Star

3RD TEAM: Raul Ibanez (1379 GP) .287/.350/.485/.834 - 24 HR, 99 RBI, 88 R, 167 H, 4 SB - 1 All Star

Alright, it's pretty strange to see Raul Ibanez listed as the third-best left fielder of this decade. But like I mentioned before, Bonds was ineligible based on my criteria, and Berkman played the majority of his games at first base. Beyond that, the Aughts were a surprisingly thin decade for transcendent left fielders. Ibanez has always been a consistent offensive player who just had his best season in '09 at age 37. As for Lee, it's easy to forget how solid he is since being stuck in baseball purgatory in Houston. It's sad when good players make such awful career decisions.

CENTER FIELD: Carlos Beltran (1392 GP) .282/.363/.505/.865 - 30 HR, 107 RBI, 112 R, 174 R, 30 SB - 5x All Star, 3x Gold Glove

The Most Underrated Player of the Aughts was the best center fielder of the last 10 years. Beltran missed significant time in '00 and '09. In between, he never played fewer than 140 games in relative anonymity in Kansas City or on the grand stage of New York. There's nothing Beltran does poorly on the field, whether it's displaying patience at the plate and hitting for terrific power, stealing bases (recording 256 steals this decade while being caught 30 times) and consistently scoring around 100 runs regardless of where he's hitting in the order, and saving runs as one of the best defensive outfielders in the sport despite his lack of hardware. Beltran is a quiet superstar who's become a national hero in Puerto Rico. His best season in New York came in '06, when the Mets won 97 games and he put up 46 homers, a .982 OPS and won the Gold Glove. The horrendous results of the last three seasons for New York has nothing to do with Beltran, who's been terrific when healthy. At 32, Beltran has plenty of excellent seasons left, and hopefully more people will take notice.

2ND TEAM: Torii Hunter (1357 GP) .276/.331/.479/.810 - 27 HR, 101 RBI, 93 R, 168 H, 19 SB - 3x All Star, 9x Gold Glove

3RD TEAM: Johnny Damon (1487 GP) .291/.360/.445/.805 - 18 HR, 80 RBI, 122 R, 191 H, 29 SB - 2x All Star - 2x World Series Champion ('04, '09)

Hunter is another universally beloved player, a gregarious talent who loves nothing more than to work with younger players. He doesn't deserve to be winning Gold Gloves anymore, but hopefully he gets an opportunity to play in the World Series before all is said and done. I suppose the years have softened my hatred for Damon, the creator of the Idiots, but it wasn't easy watching him win the title this year with New York. He's no longer a center fielder, and could find himself DHing somewhere in '10.

RIGHT FIELD: Vladimir Guerrero (1432 GP) .323/.392/.569/.960 - 36 HR, 118 RBI, 105 R, 17 SB - '04 A.L. MVP, 7x All Star

Like Beltran, Vlad began the Aughts in a small market before moving to a big one. The Montreal version of Vlad was certainly something to behold. Here was a 6', 3" behemoth roaming right field with an absolute cannon for an arm, speed on the basepaths and power to all fields. He was the complete package then, nearly going 40/40 in '02 with a league-high 206 hits. He moved to L.A., concentrated more on power, and became one of the most feared hitters in the game. We all know Vlad's greatest attribute; he can hit any pitch, thrown to any location, strike or ball. He's the greatest bad ball hitter ever next to Yogi Berra. Given his inclination to swing at everything, you'd think his strikeout totals would be high. In fact, Vlad never struck out more than 88 times in any of these past 10 seasons and his near-.400 OBP speaks to his amazing ability to make contact. Of course, as Jonathan Papelbon learned in October, you can't throw him a pitch down the middle without getting burned, either. Vlad has lost all his footspeed and entered the DH phase of his career. But his power is still there, and sense of terror he can wield with that bat won't go away soon.

2ND TEAM: Ichiro Suzuki (1426 GP) .333/.378/.434/.811 - 10 HR, 59 RBI, 111 R, 231 H, 39 SB - '01 A.L. MVP and ROY, 9x All Star, 9x Gold Glove

3RD TEAM: Magglio Ordonez (1349 GP) .316/.379/.523/.902 - 28 HR, 115 RBI, 97 R, 194 H, 9 SB - 5x All Star

You're probably thinking I'm an idiot for picking Vlad over Ichiro here. Believe me, I spent a while debating it. I ultimately decided Vlad had a greater on-field impact and Ichiro was the most overrated player of the Aughts. For supposedly being the best leadoff man of the era his .378 OBP isn't exactly terrific. Yes, he collected over 2,000 hits in just nine years. But only 18.7 percent of his hits went for extra bases. Vlad's extra base hit percentage? 38.2. Ichiro's great defensively but not historically exceptional, and he's now overshadowed by Franklin Gutierrez as the M's best fielder. Throw in that Ichiro hasn't been on a good team since his rookie year and Vlad's teams consistently make the playoffs, this isn't as outlandish as it seems. Maybe Ichiro had a bigger cultural impact, but the impact of Vlad's bat was bigger.

DESIGNATED HITTER: David Ortiz (1340 GP) .283/.378/.554/.932 - 38 HR, 123 RBI, 101 R, 166 H, 2 SB - 5x All Star, '04 ALCS MVP - 2x World Series Champion ('04, '07)

Two months into his tenure as Red Sox GM, Theo Epstein plucked the under-utilized Ortiz off the scrap heap for $1.25 million. Within two years, Ortiz would be a beloved hero to an entire region. Generations of Red Sox fans will remember Big Papi for his three walk-off hits during the '04 postseason, keeping the team alive twice while facing elimination at Fenway against the Yankees. As I mentioned during the Manny section, the Manny-Papi tandem presented an offensive wrecking crew rivaled only by Ruth and Gehrig in baseball history. Ortiz's finest hour came during the disappointing '06 campaign, when he broke the team record for homers (54) and the led the league in homers, RBI, walks and total bases. In '09, he got off to a putrid start, not hitting his first home run until six weeks into the season. In the face of many harrowing circumstances, he put together a tremendous four-month stretch, finishing with 28 homers and 99 RBI. None of us know what to expect from Papi going forward. But this production during the best era in Red Sox history, and that gap-toothed grin that captivated fans and teammates alike, will always represent what he meant not just to New England but to the game itself.

Interestingly enough, I couldn't find anyone else that played 1,200 games with the majority coming at DH. The closest was Jim Thome, who was a DH for 639 of 1,367 games. I think this speaks to how Ortiz and the Red Sox have altered the usage of the DH position. It's a common trend now for teams to use one guy as their set DH, and this wasn't done as often in the past (guys like Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines and Don Baylor come to mind). I'll bet next decade we'll have plenty of guys in Ortiz's category.

So that's it. If you've sat and read all of this, you're probably insane, but thanks for reading. If you disagree with any of my choices, voice your opinions in the comments, on Facebook, on Twitter, or wherever else you feel comfortable. Up next will be the All-Decade Starting Rotation, and it will hopefully be done by the end of next week.

Cy Young Voters Finally Get It

2009-11-19T13:18:00.000-08:00

A couple programming notes first: You may have noticed I've changed the name of the blog to "Backdoor Slider," one of my all-time favorite baseball sayings. "Can O' Corn" just didn't have the same ring to it. I started this blog over two years ago, and I finally realized how stupid and boring "Jake's Baseball Blog" was. For now, the URL stays the same.

Also, expect the first installment of my "Lists of the Decade" series to go up Wednesday morning for you to chew on through the holiday weekend. The first will be the Backdoor Slider MLB All-Decade Position Players, with rankings for first, second and third teams. Lists for the best starting pitchers, relief pitchers, teams and games will follow through the rest of 2009. I'm also pondering some "worsts" lists, like worst teams and most catastrophic contracts. Should be fun.

What I'd like to talk about today is what appears to be a fundamental shift in awards balloting for MLB, and we've seen it twice this week with Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum winning the 2009 Cy Young Awards for their respective leagues. Both of these young righty hurlers were the best candidates and most deserving winners this year. But, based on the nature of their statistics and the teams they played for, I feel like five or 10 years ago neither of these men would have captured their awards.

Let's start with Greinke. He had a phenomenal year by any stretch: a 2.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 242 Ks in 229.1 innings, a 4.75 K/BB, and a league-low 0.4 HR/9. It's one of the best seasons by an A.L. pitcher since Pedro Martinez was dominating for the Red Sox from '98-'00. But working against him were excellent seasons by Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander, both of whom benefited by playing for much better teams.

Greinke finished '09 with just 16 wins while both Hernandez and Verlander had 19. The Royals won 65 games, while Detroit and Seattle won 86 and 85, respectively. Hernandez finished with the best quality start percentage (0.85), win percentage (.792) and the second-best ERA (2.48). Verlander pitched the most innings (240), had the most Ks (263) but was relatively far behind in ERA (3.45).

Even though Hernandez was spectacular, the only real edge he held over Greinke was the three extra wins. Greinke had more strikeouts, gave up fewer walks, hits and homers. These are all much more important stats than wins, which is something a pitcher ultimately can't control (a pitcher can't always control hits and homers either, but that's another debate). Greinke was the best pitcher in the A.L. this year regardless how how bad his team played.

So I was very pleased on Tuesday when Greinke was overwhelmingly voted to win the A.L. Cy Young. He received 25 of 28 first-place votes, with Hernandez getting two and Verlander one. It was historic in the sense that only David Cone had won the A.L. Cy Young as a starter with as few as 16 wins, and that was in a strike-shortened season.

In the past, I suppose Greinke could have still won, but not so convincingly. Voters would have talked themselves into the superficial wins deficit. It may have been impossible for Greinke to win at all had Hernandez or Verlander reached the magical 20-win mark. But like I said before, by any relevant statistical measure, Greinke had the best season, and the voters got it right.

The N.L. race was much closer, and more interesting. This wound up being one of the tightest Cy Young votes in history between three top-flight righties: Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.

Lincecum had the highest quality start percentage (0.81) and the most strikeouts (261). Carp earned the best winning percentage (.810), the lowest ERA (2.24) and WHIP (1.01). Wainwright had the most wins (19) and innings (233). Carp won 17 games and Lincecum just 15 pitching for an offensively-challenged Giants team.

I had Wainwright third because he finished behind in ERA (2.63) and strikeouts (212). To me, Lincecum beats out Carp because Carp pitched just 192.2 innings to Lincecum's 225.1. Lincecum's ERA might have been slightly higher (2.48), but his numbers are more impressive because he made four more starts than Carp. Throw in that Carp had only 144 Ks and clearly relied on his defense more than either Lincecum or Wainwright (which is why Keith Law left him off his ballot entirely) and I think it's obvious that Lincecum was deserving of his second straight Cy Young.

The voters, again, got it right, but barely. Just six points separated Lincecum from Carp and 10 from Wainwright. Wainwright actually beat Lincecum in first-place votes, 12 to 11. But like the A.L., voters discounted wins and gave the award to the best pitcher. Lincecum becomes the first starter to win a Cy Young Award with as few as 15 wins. Again, had Wainwright managed to get one more victory, he probably would have won.

This is truly hair-splitting because all three were deserving winners. Had either Carp or Wainwright won, I'd have been fine with it. It's just that Lincecum deserved it the most and it wouldn't have been right to discount him solely because he won just 15 games. Thankfully, it didn't happen.

I hope this means we're headed for a new era in baseball award balloting where common sense and meaningful statistics rule the day. It only took a hundred or so years, but it seems like we're finally here. Now if only we could fix the Gold Gloves so they weren't a complete joke.

Yo, Adrian! (Get Used To That, Hopefully)

2009-11-10T10:41:00.000-08:00

Have you been left cold by the end of another baseball season? Well, hold your frosty mitts out towards the hot stove. It's throwing some heat already, but we're just getting started. Teams can talk to any free agent starting November 20, and the deadline for arbitration is December 1.

The Red Sox have already engaged in a bevy of minor moves, the most important being the acquisition of one-time top prospect Jeremy Hermida from the Marlins. Hermida has not lived up to the high expectations after being the cover boy for Baseball America's Prospect Handbook in 2006. While it's hard for me to see Hermida as an adequate replacement should Jason Bay sign elsewhere, it's also hard to complain about the trade at all.

Boston dealt two minor league relievers to get Hermida, who's only 25 and has plenty of time to round into the player he can be. The Marlins were so gung ho to rid themselves of Hermida after committing to an absurdly low $36 million payroll for 2010 and his upcoming salary of $3.5 million was just too much to bear (equally absurd for a franchise opening a new park soon and expecting people to show up). I honestly think they could have done better, but again, I won't complain about any of this. The worst case scenario is Hermida gets platooned with a right-handed hitter and the Red Sox get close to Bay's production that way. Hopefully Hermida enters the season as a fourth outfielder with trade value down the line.

I fully expect the team to engage Bay in the coming days about a contract while they still have an exclusive negotiating window. That said, I'll be surprised if he takes whatever offer they come up with before getting the chance to see what else is out there. You can't blame the guy. He's never been a free agent and he's entering a thin market where he's easily the second best position player available behind Matt Holliday. In the end, I have confidence the Red Sox will pull out all the stops to keep Bay. Not a lot of teams can afford him at this point anyway.

The signing of Bay will hopefully not keep Theo Epstein and company from finding additional ways to improve an aging offense with not much in the way of minor league reinforcements. The name that's been mentioned over and over: San Diego's slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The Sox were a player for Gonzalez at July's deadline, but couldn't get it done. In 2009, Gonzalez hit 40 homers, posted a .958 OPS and played Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. On top of that, he's signed to the best contract this side of Evan Longoria: over the next two seasons he's owned $10.25 million.

Other team will likely be interested in Gonzalez, but the Red Sox could have the inside edge. The two organizations have long been friendly, and perhaps just got even friendlier with Epstein's former right hand man Jed Hoyer taking over as GM in San Diego. WEEI.com's Alex Speier wrote yesterday this development might actually make a trade more difficult, including this money quote from Epstein: "He's knows all my tricks, and I know his."

Either way, Hoyer knows the Red Sox system in and out, and knows exactly what he'd want from Epstein in trade discussions. I'd love to be able to listen in on potential trade talks between the master and his apprentice. Interesting stuff, to say the least. Based on this report, those talks could come sooner rather than later.

In any case, I want to see the Red Sox make this happen. Gonzalez is an elite middle of the order presence, and at 27 is just entering his prime as a superstar. To facilitate a trade, the Red Sox will of course have to give up quality. If that means they have to include Clay Buchholz, I don't think Epstein should hesitate.

Yes, Buchholz is only 25. Yes, Buchholz showed signs of excellence down the stretch last year and was in line to win his first playoff start before Billy Wagner and Jonathan Papelbon intervened. Yes, he could blossom into a front-line starter at a very low cost.

The operative word there is "could."

Red Sox fans who fawn over prospects need a reality check. Sure, it's tantalizing to think about how good Buchholz could be. But it's even more tantalizing to think of a Red Sox lineup that starts off with Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Gonzalez and Bay for 2010, with everyone besides Martinez signed beyond that. That lineup will compete with the New York Yankees for the best in baseball and wreak havoc on pitchers throughout the game.

So if the only thing keeping the Red Sox from assembling that lineup is including a 25-year-old starter who might be a very good major league pitcher in the trade, I'd like to think that's a relatively easy decision for Epstein. The trade would include Buchholz, Lars Anderson, and probably three other prospects, at least one of whom would project as a major league starter. I'm not sure who that would be, but I'd think Hoyer knows one or two potentials. Daniel Bard should be left out of discussions unless a deal lands the Red Sox Heath Bell, a proven big league closer.

A trade for Gonzalez would put the Red Sox in position to address at lot of other needs. By adding such a big bat, the team could afford to go with a low-cost stopgap at shortstop to accompany Jed Lowrie (maybe a return engagement for Alex Cora?). They'll be more inclined to deal Casey Kotchman for a reliever. They would have to trade either Mike Lowell or David Ortiz, with Lowell the likelier candidate. Philadelphia nearly signed Lowell in 2007, so perhaps Epstein could deal him there and eat some salary.

They'll announce, by trading Buchholz, that they have every confidence in Daisuke Matsuzaka's conditioning and that he will return to his pre-2009 form as a consistent third starter. Remember, Buchholz might not have gotten his opportunity had Dice-K not struggled so much early on.

It will also open up a rotation spot for a winter acquisition. This could be a high-risk, high-reward type like Rich Harden or Erik Bedard, or the one big ticket FA starter out there, John Lackey. Or they could empty the rest of the farm system for Roy Hallady. It's my opinion that any of those options could be better than Buchholz next year anyway.

But it all hinges on what happens with Gonzalez. Here's hoping the old friends can find some common ground.

Yankees Win, I Puke

2009-11-04T21:14:00.000-08:00

When the Yankees were closing in winning last night's Game 6 and earning their first World Series title since 2000, I told myself that I wouldn't let their inevitable victory get to me. So what? I watched these guys win four World Series when I was growing up. It's been years since it happened. Big freakin' deal. It wasn't like they were beating the Red Sox.

Then Shane Victorino battled Mariano Rivera, grounded out to Robinson Cano, and it was over. The Yankees were once again World Champs. They celebrated like little kids as thousands of Yankees fans cheered on.

Everything I told myself went away. It got to me. I was pissed. Nothing about the Yankees winning made me happy. As much as I like and respect 95 percent of the team, I wasn't happy at all. Not even remotely. Even though the Red Sox have won twice in between Yankees titles, the Yankees winning the World Series will always piss me off.

Why? Because I'm still a fan.

Because the Yankees broke my heart so many times as a kid. [EDIT: My dad correctly pointed out that this doesn't sense. The Yankees might have been the cause of the heartbreak, but it was the Red Sox that broke my heart. I just needed to clear this up.]

Because in 1999 both the umpires and the fates were against my team. Because in 2003 Aaron Boone rendered me motionless on the very couch from which I type these words.

Because my childhood heroes Wade Boggs and Roger Clemens left to get rings in New York just to rub it all of our faces.

Because they employ Alex Rodriguez, my least favorite player of all time.

Because their owner gave control of his team to his sons, who'd spent the majority of their lives hanging around horses.

Because they built a bloated new stadium with pop fly homers and ticket prices even rich people can't afford.

Because their fans think they have to win the World Series every year or otherwise the manager should be fired, the whole team should be blown up, etc. Because I have absolutely no idea how their fans actually get pleasure out of watching them win and I often compare rooting for the Yankees to rooting for health insurance CEOs.

But most of all, it's because I just simply hate the New York Yankees. No number of Red Sox World Series championships will change that.

Of course, I'm not irrational. The Yankees were the best team in the 2009 regular season, and despite my protestations, they wound up being the best team in the playoffs, too. Joe Girardi will go down as one of the worst managers to ever win a World Series, and nothing about winning the Series convinces me he's a good manager.

How a team with a $200 million payroll wins it all with three starters, one effective reliever and a manager with no living clue how to, you know, manage them, is beyond me. The offense carried them, they only had to use Andy Pettitte once on three day's rest, and if not for Brad Lidge's Game 4 meltdown this could have been an entirely different series.

The Phillies played valiantly throughout but never came up with the big hits when they mattered outside of Pedro Feliz's bomb in Game 4. Like the Red Sox losing at any point over the last five years, the blow of this loss won't sting so badly for the Phillies fans. I feel pretty good for that awesome city and I know their club will be a World Series contender for years to come.

But what made this year so much different than the last eight for the Yankees?

Year in and year out since the strike the Bombers always had the biggest payroll. After winning the 2000 World Series, they started tinkering. Mike Mussina was signed for $88 million and the Yankees came within three outs of beating Arizona for the World Series but Rivera couldn't close the door. Buster Olney famously declared that evening "the last night of the Yankee dynasty."

From there, the team that brought so many titles began to unravel. Paul O'Neill and Scott Brosius retired, Tino Martinez and Chuck Knoblauch were shown the door, and the Yankees began a practice of plugging all holes with costly free agent signings instead of building through the farm system. After losing to Arizona, Brian Cashman gave Jason Giambi $120 million, brought aboard has-beens Raul Mondesi, Rondell White and Robin Ventura, and splurged $21 million on reliever Steve Karsay (an unmitigated disaster). In '02, the Yanks were bounced from the ALDS by the eventual champion Angels.

For the '03 campaign, Cashman had already traded promising lefty Ted Lilly to acquire headcase Jeff Weaver, and the result would not be pretty. He spent $32 million on Jose Contreras just to keep him away from Boston (Contreras would be traded to the White Sox before '04 was over), and $21 million on Hideki Matsui. Of course, the Yankees did get back to the World Series, but were defeated by Florida, a team that had virtually no wasteful free agent signings.

More retooling came for '04, in the form of adding over $30 million to their payroll. The Yankees took the opportunity to consume the many millions remaining on Rodriguez's contract after a deal with Boston fell apart in the 11th hour. Instead of going after Vladimir Guerrero, Cashman signed the older Gary Sheffield for $39 million. Acquired via trade were Javier Vazquez (given a $45 million extension) and Kevin Brown (the 'roid-raging righty with $30 million remaining on his ridiculous contract). Meanwhile, their bullpen was filled out by hacks like Tanyon Sturtze and Felix Heredia. The Yanks were all set to go back to the World Series before the Red Sox decided to stage the greatest comeback in sports history and secured bragging rights for years to come.

For '05 things appeared to be turning around as they allowed homegrown talent like Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang to flourish. But they still added almost $25 million to their gaudy payroll, going over $200 million for the first time. Much of that came from two massively failed free agent pitchers, Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano, who won a combined 25 games during their New York careers. Despite Vazquez's extension, he was part of a trade that brought in Randy Johnson. He'd famously clash with teammates and media during two productive seasons there while pocketing $32 million. The Angels once again beat them in the ALDS.

Bernie Williams was relegated to part-time status after Johnny Damon was signed away for roughly $10 million more than what anyone else was offering. They also resigned Matsui for $52 million and kept tossing money at a black hole of a bullpen that wasn't improving (Kyle Farnsworth and the unintentionally comedic signing of Mike Myers). They got Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle during the season for a bucket of baseballs and pissed off Sheffield in the process. While heavily favored, the Yanks were bounced by the Tigers in the ALDS, Joe Torre batted the truly embattled A-Rod eighth and fans became increasingly restless.

Pettitte and Clemens went for one last go-round in the Bronx in '07. But the most hilarious signing of this entire era came when the Yankees lost out on Daisuke Matsuzaka and settled instead on Kei Igawa at an overall price tag of $46 million. Igawa's MLB career numbers: 2-4, 6.66 ERA, 53 K, 37 BB in 71.2 IP. The tide towards homegrown players continued with Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain playing key roles. But gnats swarmed Chamberlain in Cleveland, the Yankees were again defeated in the ALDS, the fans had to watch the Red Sox hoist the World Series Trophy once again, and Torre was unceremoniously forced out in favor of Girardi.

Injuries and ineffectiveness caused the Yankees to miss the playoffs in '08 for the first time since the strike. They'd decided to let their kids play with mixed results. Lots of people questioned in Girardi was right manager and what the Yankees would do to fix the problems. This gets back to the question I asked before: why was this year different than the others? Cashman took advantage of a depressed market to sign the three highest-impact free agents last winter. Yes, it totaled almost $500 million, and the Yankees appeared to be on the verge of "buying another title."

Well, those signings had actual purpose to them as opposed to just throwing money at a problems. They needed two power starting pitchers and someone to hold down first base for the foreseeable future, and from a production standpoint, they got the right guys. But perhaps bigger than production on the field, the new Yankees bring something to the table so many of their 2000s free agent brethren lacked. Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira are all first-rate personalities and teammates.

Along with Nick Swisher, these players caused the longtime tension in the Yankees clubhouse to dissipate. They even made it so Rodriguez finally looked comfortable. Like so many World Champions in recent years, and like the dynastic teams of a decade ago, these Yankees actually like each other. It's sad that it took Cashman and the Yankees brass so much time to figure it out. Unfortunately for me, they finally did.

The Yankees have a lot of questions to answer now, specifically who plays left field and whether WS MVP Matsui will return. But they can celebrate now, providing championship bookends for a decade with so much strife in between.

And no matter what, I'll always hate it.

*****

With that, another baseball season ends. It's a double-dose of suck that I can't watch baseball for six months and the last image I have is of the Yankees winning the World Series. I look outside my New Hampshire window right now and see snow flurries. It's going to be a long winter, with the free agent market likely just as depressed with year as last year.

I want to try and concentrate on hockey writing through the winter, so hot stove posts might not be as plentiful this year. I do, however, have some things planned for JBB over the next two months, including a few best (and worst) of the decade lists. You know how much I love lists.

Pitchers and catchers report in just 107 days.

2009 World Series Preview

2009-10-27T17:14:00.000-07:00

Anyone who knows me is aware of my undying love of baseball's history. It's the biggest thing that separates baseball from the other professional sports, in my opinion. For example, is there any other sport in 2009 where one of its championship participants began play in 1883? Think about that for a second; the Philadelphia Phillies were founded 18 years after the Civil War ended. Couple their history with that of their opponent, the New York Yankees, and you've got generations of fans and decades of stories with a new chapter still to be added.

Despite the long histories of these two franchises, they've only locked horns in the World Series once before. In 1950 the Yankees were in the midst of the most dynastic run in baseball's history, maybe in sports history.

From 1947 through 1964, the Bombers won the American League pennant in all but three seasons (the Indians won in 1948 and 1954 with the White Sox winning in 1959). In a pre-free agency world, the Yankees could keep all their best players at whatever price they chose. When those players lost their effectiveness, there was always another young superstar ready to take their place.

And they did. And they won, just about every year. They won 10 World Championships, and a list of their best players reads like an all-time team: Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Phil Rizzuto, Johnny Mize, Whitey Ford, Billy Martin, Jerry Coleman, Tony Kubek, Bill Skowron, Joe Pepitone, Ralph Terry, Allie Reynolds, Vic Raschi, Elston Howard, Bobby Richardson and Don Larsen amongst so many others under legendary managers Casey Stengel and Ralph Houk.

The 1950 Phillies won 91 games, edging out the Brooklyn Dodgers for the National League title. It was their first since 1915, and the young team was called the Whiz Kids by the media and fans. There were led by two eventual Hall of Fame talents; Robin Roberts, who won 20 games and would be a dominant starter for another 15 years, and Richie Ashburn, a Nebraska farmboy who became a franchise icon with blazing speed in center field and a preternatural on-base ability. It was a storybook season for a team and city short on luck for so many years.

Unfortunately they ran headlong into the Yankees' dynastic buzz saw. The Pinstripers won four close contests in a row and swept the Whiz Kids. The longest game played in the series was Game 2, clocking in at three hours and five minutes (something to shoot for this year, guys). The Yankees' pitchers dominated to the tune of a 0.73 ERA. DiMaggio (who's on my "Top 5 Players I Wish I Could Have Seen" list along with Ruth, Williams, Cobb and Mays) hit .308 and knocked the game-winning home run in Shibe Park in Game 2.

So what does any of that have to do with 2009? Absolutely nothing. But I find it cool that we can have the same World Series match-up in 2009 that we had in 1950, and could have had dating back to the first World Series in 1903.

This World Series should be different from 1950. They've both come through the postseason only losing two games apiece, both overstocked with quality starting pitching and offense, both a bit thin in the bullpen, and both brimming with confidence. One side is coming off a World Series win, the other expected to win every season. I say this just about every year, but this is the best hope for an exciting World Series since 2002.

Presenting my 2009 World Series Preview, the Phillies vs. the Yankees, aka every Mets fans' nightmare:

OFFENSE: Believe me when I say neither club is lacking in this area. They Yankees have enjoyed the best lineup one through nine since Opening Day with threats to go deep everywhere in the order. Alex Rodriguez continued his October re-birth against L.A., coming up with huge hits and causing an entire fan base to do a total 180 since the spring (don't think I haven't noticed, Yankees fans). Derek Jeter looks ready to once again be Mr. November. While Nick Swisher's troubles have been well-documented, the biggest question mark for the Yankees in this series is Mark Teixeira. He's hit just .205 in October, but appeared to be coming out of it in ALCS Games 5 and 6.

For the Phillies, they've been anchored by Ryan Howard, the best left-handed pure power hitter of his generation. He's sporting a cool 1.203 OPS this postseason and how he'll do against the Yankees' dearth of southpaws will be a major factor. Jayson Werth has broken out, smashing five homers so far, many coming in clutch situations. Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz also have that flair for the dramatic. Expect to see Greg Dobbs DH in Game 1 with AL veteran Matt Stairs likely to get some hacks in Game 2 (they will indeed be hacks, trust me). Chase Utley has just one extra-base in these playoffs, and like Teixeira, he needs to get it going for his team to be successful.

Edge: New York.

STARTING PITCHING: No inkling of a doubt here; this series hinges on whose starters are more effective. Apparently all CC Sabathia ever needed for October success was rest in September. It's possible Sabathia could get three more starts before all is said and done. He's been truly spectacular so far, giving up just four earned runs in 22.2 postseason innings. A.J. Burnett gets the ball in Game 2, and he must get over his poor ALCS Game 5 start. Despite strong performances so far, I wonder how much longer before Andy Pettitte breaks down a bit. He's not young, it's been a long year, and his next start will take him out of the confines of Yankee Stadium. Joe Girardi will once again go with just three starters.

Cliff Lee has been nearly as dominant as his old teammate Sabathia and he won't be intimidated in Game 1 against an AL lineup. If the Phillies win this World Series, the Lee trade will likely go down as the single-best midseason trade for a pitcher in baseball history. I defy anyone to come up with one better. Pedro Martinez will take the hill in Game 2 in front of the fans that destroyed him in 2004 ALCS Game 7 and saw him choke in 2003 ALCS Game 7. The Yankees are, after all, his daddy, and I question the decision to put him out there for this game. But Pedro will be Pedro, and nobody in baseball has ever relished a challenge more. Cole Hamels is due to break out of his funk, and I predict a strong Game 3 start. Either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton will go in Game 4, and they could take advantage if Sabathia finally tires.

Edge: Philadelphia.

DEFENSE: Defense might not win championships in baseball, but it can certainly lose them. Just as the 2006 Tigers. Or the 1986 Red Sox, for that matter. (I need to cancel out that last sentence by wishing all Red Sox fans a happy 5th anniversary of winning the '04 Series. Now I feel better). I don't have an awful lot to say about this on either side, but since the Yankees' smartened up and now only use Matsui at DH, they've improve immensely on defense although they aren't great. Sometimes I wonder if Robinson Cano has any clue out there. Teixeira is far and away this team's best defensive player.

The Phillies are much more sound in the field with Pedro Feliz and Rollins patrolling the left side with Victorino and Werth making great plays in the outfield. Utley made some costly throwing errors in the last series but he's normally very good. I'll be watching how Raul Ibanez handles the spacious turf of left field in Yankee Stadium.

Edge: Philadelphia.

BULLPENS: So, if Brad Lidge hasn't given up a run yet in the postseason, does that just mean he's due to implode, or is he back to his history-making greatness of a year ago? We will find out in the coming days. Lidge's success, and the overall success of the Philadelphia bullpen, has been one of the biggest surprises of the playoffs. Scott Eyre and Chad Durbin are coming up big, and they'll have to continue their ways especially in a situation like Game 2 where Pedro might not be able to go longer than six frames.

I really don't feel like extolling the virtues of Mariano Rivera (who may or may not love Jesus more than Kurt Warner), so I'll focus on the other members of the Yankees' bullpen instead. I gave them crap for not having a solid unit all year, but Joba Chamberlain's move back to a setup role has provided a stabilizing presence. What I don't get is why Girardi insists on using Phil Hughes in key spots when he's been anything but good in the postseason while David Robertson, Phil Coke and Damaso Marte have all been solid in relatively little action. Girardi has had difficulty managing his bullpen this postseason, which is something I'll get to shortly. But there's one Yankee that can make any manager look good, and that might be all that matters.

Edge: New York.

MANAGERS: Charlie Manuel cracks me up. You take one look at the guy and without knowing anything about him you'd guess he was a baseball manager just based on his aesthetics. Then he opens his mouth, and it's hard not to laugh at his garbled diction. But he's awesome. He was on the brink of getting fired going into last season, now he's ready to lead the Phillies to the World Series for a second straight time. Manuel's players adore him, and the city has certainly warmed to him over the last couple years. Unlike his counterpart, he's actually won a World Series, and that means something here.

The Yankees might lose this series solely because of Girardi. I know the Yankees have only lost twice this postseason, but their Game 3 extra inning loss in L.A. was a direct result of a poor choice by Girardi. He brought in right-hander Robertson to start the 11th, and after getting the first two batters out, abruptly removed Robertson for another right-hander, Alfredo Aceves, to face Howie Kendrick. Kendrick singled, then Jeff Mathis doubled him home. If anyone can figure out why this happened, please let me know. He pinch-runs for hitters like Rodriguez and Teixeira in close or tied games, something that might cost them down the line. The word "overmanaging" has been used constantly, but again, it hasn't cost them more than one loss yet. The Phillies are better than the Angels, and should make them pay in case Girardi slips up again.

Edge: Philadelphia.

INTANGIBLES & LOOSE ENDS: I'm suffering from broken record syndrome here, but the Yankees have been and will continue to be very difficult to beat in Yankee Stadium. I hate to sound like the many lazy sportswriters that cover baseball these days, but maybe there is some sort of "mystique" about the place. The Yankees just win there, and other teams can't seem to break through. If the Phillies can take one of these first two games it will be quite a feat.

Philadelphia's bench is much deeper than the Yankees, and in close games late that could prove to be very important. Without a doubt, the Phillies want to make some history. They can go down as one of few teams to win back-to-back titles, and given the lack of championships in the history of the franchise and the recent history of the city, the Phillies have an opportunity to go down as the beloved group of athletes assembled in the City of Brotherly Love.

The Phillies will take one of two in New York, and the Yankees will take one of three in Philadelphia. Behind Pettitte the Yankees win Game 6 in New York. Then in Game 7, Sabathia and Lee do battle for the third time in the series. They lock up in a duel reminiscent of Jack Morris and John Smoltz in Game 7 of the legendary 1991 World Series. In the top of the 10th, Howard blasts a two-run bomb off Sabathia to break the deadlock.

Lidge enters, gets the first two out, then gives up a solo home run by Johnny Damon. Teixeira works a walk. Then comes A-Rod. After an epic at-bat, Rodriguez swings and misses at a 3-2 heater, and the Phillies celebrate wildly. A-Rod runs off the field crying and even Kate Hudson can't make him stop.

It's all going to happen. I guarantee it.

Prediction: Phillies in seven. Enjoy the series.

Down to Business - LCS Previews

2009-10-15T08:06:00.001-07:00

So I didn't do too well with my LDS predictions, going 1-for-4 and losing my favorite team in the process. I'll try to do better with my LCS picks. Let's start with the Senior Circuit, a rematch of last year's NLCS.

PHILADELPHIA vs. LOS ANGELES
Behind the prolific pitching of Cole Hamels, the Phillies surprised a lot of observers in 2008 by handily taking down the Dodgers in the NLCS on the way to their first World Series title in 28 years. The clubs find themselves here again, with Hamels set to go tonight against Clayton Kershaw.

The success for Hamels last year seems like a distant memory. Finishing 2009 a mediocre 10-11 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA, the urgency to deal for a top hurler like Cliff Lee probably wouldn't have existed had Hamels pitched up to his capabilities. In NLDS Game 2 against Colorado, he again struggled, yielding four runs on seven hits in five innings in Citizens Bank Park.

It seems like the Dodgers are relishing the chance to face the Phillies in this spot after destroying the Cardinals in three NLDS embarrassments. They want revenge after what happened a year ago, and beating Hamels is a great place to start. With Hamels on the ropes, he'll need to be significantly better to avoid putting his club in an early hole.

But luckily for the Philles, they do have Cliff Lee, who was exceptional in both his NLDS starts, allowing just two total earned runs. He's expected to go in Game 3 back in Philadelphia, and he's clearly the best pitcher in this series. Pedro Martinez is chomping at the bit to get a start and it could come as early as tomorrow. The Dodgers will welcome Hiroki Kuroda back to face Lee, while Vicente Padilla's predictable dominance of the NL is probably causing Ron Washington to go gray.

If there's a significant mismatch between these clubs it's definitely the bullpens. All year the Dodgers were dominant at the end of games, and the NLDS was no different. L.A. relievers allowed just two runs in the three contests. While the Phillies' bullpen wasn't terrible against the Rockies, Brad Lidge's well-documented struggles could flare up at any time. We've seen already bullpens play a pivotal role in these playoffs. I'd be feeling pretty confident if I was a Dodger fan.

The offenses are relatively even, with the Phillies slugging their way past the Rockies thanks to timely knocks by Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and the insanely clutch Jayson Werth. The Dodgers are enjoying major production from Andre Ethier and Rafael Furcal and we're beginning to see Manny Ramirez break through his season of tumult and disappointment. Ramirez is the most important player in this series because he could win it for his team all by himself. If Manny gets hot, and hits the way I've seen him hit in these spots before, the Phillies are done. Repeat: done.

There's also a possibility that Pedro could face Manny in one of these games. Which could then lead to this for me and many other Red Sox fans (probably NSFW).

Anyway, I think the Dodgers have the edge. They've got home field, the stronger bullpen, the most dangerous hitter and their starters were very effective against a Pujols-Holliday offense. Their drive and desire to get to the finish line will win out.

Dodgers in six.

Onto the ALCS, beginning Friday in The House That George Built:

LOS ANGELES vs. NEW YORK
There's a player in this series who hit .455 with two homers, six RBI and four runs scored in his ALDS and also came up with several game-breaking clutch hits. Who is this player? It's gotta be Derek Jeter, right? No, even though Jeter hit well against the Twins. OK, well then it's gotta be Torii Hunter. No? What about Mark Teixeira? It has to be him! It isn't? Well then, how about Vlad Guerrero? He came up with the big hit in Boston, but it's not him. Alright, then, who is it?

You better be sitting down. The answer is Alex Rodriguez.

Yes, that Alex Rodriguez. The same Alex Rodriguez who'd done nothing in the postseason since the middle of the 2004 ALCS and wilted in almost every key spot with a bat in his hands. Sure, he's great at launching three-run bombs when the Yankees are up already up by seven runs. But I'm not sure I want to live in a world where A-Rod is getting huge postseason hits and putting up big numbers for a team with an already-ridiculous offense.

Why is this happening? Perhaps it's because of Red Sox fan Seth Meyers' joke on "SNL" about how his reported impregnating of Kate Hudson represents "the only time he's produced in October." Maybe someone hypnotized A-Rod into believing that he's actually playing a meaningless May series against the Royals, except that it's unseasonably cold. Either way, when A-Rod is playing like it's May, it's bad news for everyone else. Like his buddy Manny, Rodriguez is the most important player in his LCS for this reason.

Tomorrow night the aces will square off in New York, with John Lackey and CC Sabathia ready for battle. Joe Girardi has hinted that he might go with a three-man rotation in the ALCS, making it so Sabathia could potentially pitch Games 1, 4 and 7. Past experience tells us that Sabathia is extremely less effective when overworked in the playoffs, so Girardi should tread lightly. Perhaps dusting off Chad Gaudin won't be a bad idea in this series. Scott Kazmir will be going in Game 4 for the Angels, so throwing Gaudin might be safe.

No question these teams are evenly matched. The Angels are better on defense and obviously run more, but the Yankees are dangerous one through nine and can break games wide open with their awesome power. Both starting rotations and bullpens are great but not flawless (the Yankees need to be concerned about Phil Hughes' struggles against Minnesota). Hopefully this closeness in talent leads to an epic series.

But both clubs also have intangibles on their side. The Angels have been inspired by the memory of Nick Adenhart, the up-and-coming starter killed by a drunk driver in April. They've paid tribute to him all season, hanging his jersey in the dugout and voting his family a full playoff share. I felt in years past that the Angels would often give up against tough playoff opponents when they got down. That won't happen this time around.

For the Yankees, there's a sense of unity and togetherness from the Pinstripes I haven't seen since the heyday of the Brosius-O'Neill-Martinez era. They're loose, they have fun, and they really seem to like each other as teammates. Needless to say, this was missing when the likes of Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield were around. These Yankees aren't concerned about the checkered recent past of their franchise. They're playing in the here and now, and they're going to be nearly unbeatable in their park.

I'm rooting for the Angels, of course. But these Yankees...they're different. They're going to the World Series after a classic ALCS.

Yankees in 7.

(Now do your work, Reverse Jinx Gods!)

One Pitch Away

2009-10-11T14:31:00.000-07:00

(Boston Globe photo)

In 1995, author Mike Sowell penned "One Pitch Away," a book on the dramatic 1986 postseason, considered by many non-Red Sox fans to be the best October of all time. We know that the Red Sox were one pitch away from winning their first World Series since 1918 and couldn't do it. But before that, Boston had to beat the then-California Angels in the ALCS.

Up 3-1 in the series, the Angels led 5-2 in the top of the ninth in Game 5 in Anaheim. Don Baylor hit a two-run homer, and after Rich Gedman was hit with two outs, Donnie Moore was summoned to close it out. Moore was one pitch away from sending the Angels to their first World Series when Dave Henderson launched a 2-2 pitch over the left-center wall, giving Boston a 6-5 lead.

The Angels would lose in 11 innings. The Red Sox won the next two in Boston, and left the Angels in the dust.

Twenty-two years and 364 days after Henderson's iconic long ball off Moore, the Angels finally had their revenge. Leading 6-4, Jonathan Papelbon and the Red Sox were one pitch away from extending their ALDS against Los Angeles when Erick Aybar laced a two-out, two-strike single to center, beginning a three-run rally that culminated with Vladimir Guerrero driving in the tying and go-ahead runs. Brian Fuentes then finished the game and the series.

The Red Sox were ahead all day. Even as the game tightened to 5-4 in the eighth, I was still thinking ahead to a potential Game 4 Monday night. With Jon Lester going against Joe Saunders, and the Fenway crowd in a tizzy, I liked their chances. Then in Game 5, with a fully-rested Josh Beckett, anything could happen.

But it never got that far. Not even close. The fourth time this decade wasn't to be a charm. The Angels were motivated, played smart, and wanted to win more. They rendered the Red Sox offense impotent by consistently getting ahead in counts and forcing them to work from behind. Lester, Beckett and Clay Buchholz weren't the problem. John Lackey, Jered Weaver and a fine bullpen were. Arte Moreno, Tony Reagins, Mike Scioscia and the Angels are a terrific organization that I'll be rooting for them from here on out.

The Angels were just better this time. It's that simple.

Papelbon, who was an adventure all year but always seemed to pull through when he got into trouble (just three blown saves in '09), couldn't close the door as he'd done so many times in the playoffs. I've made a big deal about Papelbon and his future with the club, but there will be questions in the wake of this disaster about whether he's worth a long-term commitment. All I know is that his splitter is gone and the Angels won Sunday because they preyed on his fastball, the only pitch he throws with confidence. I also know Daniel Bard was outstanding today, and he looks ready to be a closer in the Majors.

The long winter seems especially long this year, with the Yankees looking like an unstoppable force and a true threat to win the World Series (even Alex Rodriguez is hitting). Re-signing Jason Bay must be the team's top priority. Alex Gonzalez has a $6 million option for next year that I'd like to see picked up, allowing Jed Lowrie to be an understudy. Casey Kotchman will hopefully be dealt for a quality bullpen arm. Veteran stalwarts Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek will both mull retirement or look to return to Boston with diminished roles. Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito are likely to flee via free agency, as will Rocco Baldelli. Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett will be entering their walk years.

Those questions will be dealt with in the coming weeks. Reflecting on this season, I see a team with tons of potential that never really put the pieces together. The Achilles' heel of this franchise for so many years was the bullpen, and Theo Epstein finally created an elite unit, only to see inconsistencies in offense and injured/ineffective starting pitching thwart a potentially dominating club. The 2009 Red Sox might go down as the most frustrating in recent team history because of that. The Yankees were better, having spent $423 million on new players and opening a majestic new stadium where they must have had an 81-0 record. The Angels were better, spurred on by an early-season tragedy and so many playoff failures dating back to 2002. But the Red Sox could have been better than both. That they weren't is a painful reality.

But there's plenty of reason to be grateful.

I'm grateful Epstein took a chance on Victor Martinez, knowing he was the missing link both in terms of the offense and the clubhouse. I'm grateful David Ortiz overcame a horrendous first two months to be one of the best hitters in baseball over the last four. I'm grateful Jacoby Ellsbury is quickly becoming the most exciting player in franchise history with blazing speed on the basepaths and in the field. I'm grateful J.D. Drew stayed healthy and proved to all thoughtful observers that he's an immensely talented hitter and an incredibly underrated outfielder. I'm grateful the organization heeded my call to showcase Bard as the next great young reliever in this game.

I'm grateful my favorite team is owned by people who care first and foremost about putting the best possible product on the field, knowing everything from fan appreciation to national recognition will trickle down from that. I'm grateful Red Sox fans from coast to coast overpopulate visiting stadiums to the point of mania. I'm grateful my favorite team is closing out a decade with seven 90-win seasons, six playoff appearances, two World Series titles, the respect of an entire industry and memories that will never escape me. I'm grateful for the foundation that means the next decade could be even better.

After losing to the Rays last year I wrote in TNH that when your favorite team loses, no matter what the circumstance or team history, it always hurts. Right now, losing this game today and having the season end hurts. But I can't lose sight of the things I'm grateful for, that we should all be grateful for.

I'll continue to update here throughout the playoffs, including LCS previews later this week.

Don't Blink - ALDS Previews

2009-10-07T08:06:00.000-07:00

The field has been whittled from 30 to eight, and the race to the World Series title begins later today. Before I get to my thoughts on the four series to come, I must address what I believe is a major problem for MLB, which of course has no shortage of problems. That's the fallacy of the five-game LDS, instituted in 1994 but first put into practice the next year due to the strike.

Baseball prides itself on supposedly having the most meaningful regular season of all professional sports, and I'd agree it does. The long, arduous season of 162 games rewards only the very best over that stretch. Unlike the NBA, NHL or NFL, it's exceedingly rare for a team to get in the postseason with a .500 record or worse. Mediocrity doesn't have a place in the MLB playoffs, most of the time.

So it has never made sense to me that a sport whose standard for entering the postseason is so high would treat their entrants with a measly five-game series. There's no question there have been some classic Division series (Yanks-Mariners in '95, Mets-D'Backs in '99, Red Sox-A's in '03, Braves-Astros in '05 among others) but it strikes me as contradictory that the fate of the supposedly best teams comes down to winning three games out of five. Any team can beat any other team in that scenario.

I know baseball's strict adherence to October as the only month for postseason play makes adding games to the schedule difficult (especially in a weird calender year like this where it looks like a long World Series will take us into November), but the LDS needs to be seven games. The best teams need to win, not just teams like Colorado in '07 or St. Louis in '06 that get hot at the right time. The regular season needs to mean something. Five games isn't enough.

With my rant out of the way, let's move on to the previews. Starting with the N(AAAA)L:

PHILADELPHIA (93-69, East Champs) vs. COLORADO (92-70, Wild Card Champs)

The defending World Series Champions will be looking to repeat as they face off with the upstart Rockies, once again the feel-good story of the MLB postseason. After firing Clint Hurdle this summer, the Rockies took off under Jim Tracy and never looked back. They'll head to Citizens Bank Park to start their NLDS with a hungry but flawed Phillies team.

Certainly the experience factor goes to Philly, most of these guys have a ring. Cliff Lee will start Game 1, and he should be followed by Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton. Hamels was not even close to this year to the dominant force he was in last year's postseason, and the Phils will likely sink or swim dependent on how he does. Ubaldo Jimenez, the flamethrower who finally broke out this year, will go first for the Rockies.

Both teams have very good, balanced offenses, but the bullpens for both clubs could be a question. The Phillies saw a phenomenal drop-off for Brad Lidge this year after having the best season ever for a closer in 2008. It's a total mystery who Charlie Manuel will use in the 9th inning going forward, which isn't a good thing for this or any club. Regardless, I think the starting pitching and offense for the defending champs gets in done. Phillies in five.

LOS ANGELES (95-67, West Champs) vs. ST. LOUIS (91-71, Central Champs)

There are plenty of stories that go along with these two clubs, who have been postseason staples for much of this decade. Last year, the Dodgers won their first postseason series since 1988 and look to improve on that in their second straight playoff appearance under Joe Torre. The Cardinals earned their seventh Central title under Tony LaRussa based on one primary strength, and it's a huge strength to have: starting pitching.

LaRussa and longtime pitching coach Dave Duncan have lined up their rotation with Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24 ERA), Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA) and Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.49 ERA) set to go starting tonight in Chavez Ravine. This is a massive advantage the Cardinals have over the Dodgers, who can't count on anyone past Randy Wolf, who'll square off against Carpenter tonight. That uncertainty means they won't go far in the playoffs.

The Dodgers can still hang their hats on balanced offense and a strong bullpen anchored by beastly Jonathan Broxton. Ryan Franklin will look to round out his strong year by closing the Cardinals to another World Series title. Let's also not forget this fellow Albert Pujols, coming off an absurd regular season and keeper of a 1.022 OPS in the postseason. The Cardinals are a popular pick in this series, and I can't see why not. Cardinals in four.

On to the American League:

LOS ANGELES (97-65, West Champs) vs. BOSTON (95-67, Wild Card Champs)

Another year, another Angels-Red Sox ALDS. For the third straight year, and fourth of the last six, Mike Scioscia's Angels and Terry Francona's Red Sox will meet to open the postseason. The Red Sox have won each of those matchups, and I expect this year to be no different. The Red Sox have advantages almost everywhere on the field and the hunger to avenge last year's loss in the ALCS to the Rays.

Jon Lester and Josh Beckett will start the first two games in Los Angeles with Clay Buchholz set to go in Game 3 back in Boston. Buchholz has been shaky in his last two starts, and they'll need him to overcome that if they want to go far this year. The Angels starters have been much shakier than in year's past, with John Lackey going in Game 1 followed by Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. Lackey can't seem to beat the Red Sox in the playoffs, regardless of where the game is played.

Overall the offenses are even with the Angels much improved in that category, but the Sox have a clear advantage in the bullpen. Brian Fuentes as underwhelmed while Jonathan Papelbon is poised to lead the Red Sox to another title. A lot is being made about the Angels and their ability to run all over Red Sox pitching, but I can't see that being a serious deal. They've always been a running team and haven't beaten the Red Sox yet this decade. Red Sox in four.

NEW YORK (103-59, East Champs) vs. MINNESOTA (87-76, Central Champs)

The Twins wrapped up the most improbable of division comebacks in a thrilling, edge-of-your-seat tiebreaker game against the hapless Tigers in the Homerdome last night. In this space a few weeks ago I said the Twins had no chance of coming back after losing Justin Morneau. But the Tigers choked away their lead, culminating in yesterday's instant classic. For their efforts, the Twins get to fly and face the best team in baseball, the New York Yankees.

The Yankees might have the worst playoff rotation of any team to ever win 103 games, with CC Sabathia's struggles, A.J. Burnett's lack of a history and Andy Pettitte's age and wonky shoulder. Minnesota's rotation is no bowl of sunshine either, but if upstarts Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker are strong, the Twins will have more than a fighting chance. After what they've done in the last month, anything seems possible.

Maybe I'm crazy, maybe I'm naive, maybe I just hate the Yankees. But the Twins will be coming into this series on a major high. Couple this with the fact that New York hasn't played a meaningful game in more than six weeks and I think the stage is set for some major surprises. If the Twins take one game in New York, they can take both games in the Homerdome and shock the world. Well, except for me. Twins in four.

One last night before I go: After winning the game yesterday, Orlando Cabrera told Craig Sager the tiebreaker was "the most unbelievable game" he'd ever played in or seen. Umm...what? Did you forget about Games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS? What about Game 4 of the World Series, the game that, you know, won you the World Series? Really, O.C.? That bothered me, a lot. Baseball players have short memories, apparently.

Anyway, enjoy the games, starting with Philly and Colorado at 2:30 today.

September Situations

2009-09-15T09:06:00.000-07:00

I love baseball anytime of year (including refreshing MLBTR during the dead-of-Winter Meetings), but there's nothing quite like the months of September and October, with the game's best fighting for playoff position followed by the ultimate tournament to decide who belongs atop the mountain of the long season. The sprint to the playoffs is a bit lacking this year, with only the Wild Card races presenting a chance for real pennant-chase drama.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the virtues and weaknesses of all teams within five games of the playoffs with roughly 15 regular season games to go:

BOSTON (leads AL Wild Card by 4.5 games): I'm feeling pretty confident about these guys at the moment. The offense is rolling, and Victor Martinez has been the best single mid-season acquisition of the Epstein era. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have been outstanding of late, and Josh Beckett's five solid innings in a rain-shortened game Saturday indicate that he's gotten over a spate of ineffectiveness. In the ALDS, all a team needs is three strong starters, and I have no doubt the Sox will have that by October.

The big question (and it's a big one) concerns the fourth spot needed to win the ALCS and the Fall Classic. Part of the answer may come tonight when Daisuke Matsuzaka makes his first MLB start since June 19. It will be the ultimate test against the dynamic Los Angeles Angels. Maybe it will be unfair to expect a lot from Dice his first time out versus such a tough lineup. But if he can go six innings, give up a run or two, minimize the walks and keep the Sox in the game, maybe Boston will have found its fourth starter. That's not too much to ask, is it?

COLORADO (leads NL Wild Card by 3.5 games): The Rockies are once again in the midst of a late-season charge to the playoffs, as they were in '07. Jim Tracy has this team believing they can go deep in the playoffs behind a rejuvenated Todd Helton, a fully-healthy Troy Tulowitzki and solid contributors Seth Smith and Brad Hawpe. And if they were to actually get anything out of Garrett Atkins, who knows how good this offense could be?

They've already dropped the first of a three game set with the Giants to start this week. I'll have more to say about San Fran shortly, but I can't imagine anyone will want to face the Giants in the postseason with their starting pitching. The Rockies have some fearful hurlers of their own, and one of them, Ublado Jimenez, will be going tonight. The imposing fireballer has figured it out, with a 3.32 ERA and 167 K in 195 IP so far this year. As long as they keep plugging away, the Rockies should make the playoffs but they have to maintain focus to get there.

DETROIT (leads AL Central by 5.5 games): In light of recent news that Justin Morneau will miss the rest of the season with a back stress fracture (ouch) and the inconsistency of the White Sox, the Tigers and their fans can rest easy. Detroit will make the playoffs as the best team in baseball's worst division. I was dead wrong about the Tigers in my preseason previews, mostly because I whiffed on their pitchers. Justin Verlander is back to being an ace, going 16-8 with a 3.34 ERA thus far. Edwin Jackson has shockingly posted a 3.22 ERA in 190 IP this year, and Rick Porcello is a ROY candidate with a 3.40 ERA since the start of August.

With Porcello likely to get shut down at some point, they badly need Jarrod Washburn to come through. He has only two quality starts since coming over from Seattle at the deadline. Otherwise, the Tigers will face the New York Yankees with only two solid postseason rotation options. The '06 Tigers beat the Yankees in the ALDS, but that Detroit club was much better than this one. I have my own concerns about the Yankees come playoff time (I'll get to that shortly), but the Tigers are the weak link in the AL playoff picture. I'm not sure what to expect.

L.A. ANGELS (leads AL West by 6 games): Two words: Kendry Morales. The Angels lose Mark Teixeira ('09: .285-35-111-92-2)? Well, all they have his Morales. They're screwed, right? Wrong. The guy has been a revelation, with a line no one expected: .306-30-98-73-1. How come nobody is talking about this? The Angels lose the biggest free agent on the market, replace him with someone in house, and barely skip a beat? Morales is just one example of a fantastic Angels offense that separates it from teams of year's past. They're so well-balanced with Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar up top and Vlad Guerrero, Morales and Torii Hunter providing the pop.

The Angels acquired Red Sox and Yankees killer Scott Kazmir at the waiver deadline for virtually nothing, a move that I'm still steamed about. Couldn't the Rays have waited until the winter if they just wanted to dump salary? Why didn't either Boston or New York put in a waiver claim? Either way, the Red Sox and Angels are on a collision course for their fourth ALDS match-up in six years, with the Red Sox winning nine of the 10 games they've played. Will this year be any different? Well, they still have John Lackey, right? I feel good about that.

L.A. DODGERS (leads NL West by 4 games): Over in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers have been the Senior Circuit's best team for all of 2009. Manny Ramirez gets suspended for 50 games? No problem. Juan Pierre will just fill in and do an improbably great job. Jeff Kent retires in the offseason? They'll just get Orlando Hudson for peanuts and he'll be the best second baseman in the NL not named Utley. Jonathon Broxton gets hurt? Some dude named Ramon Troncoso will step in an be just as effective. These are the type of things that happen to winning teams.

Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are coming into their own as superduper stars in a town that loves them. With the way they've been pitching, the trio of Randy Wolf, Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw looks awfully imposing come the postseason. They have the right manager to get deep in the playoffs and that excellent mix of youth and experience. Can they get over the hump, and prove they're better than St. Louis and Philadelphia? October will provide the answer.

NEW YORK (leads AL East by 7.5 games): Alright, there's no doubt the Yankees are going to be baseball's best team, at least in terms of win/loss record. They've already got 93 wins and are destined to hit the century mark for the fourth time this decade. Derek Jeter his hitting .330 and is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career at age 35. I've already outlined Teixeira's MVP-like numbers, with Johnny Damon, Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada all turning excellent campaigns. CC Sabathia has 17 wins and Mariano Rivera is a God walking among men.

But I am I crazy for thinking the Yankees are not built to be successful in the postseason? Their roster is old, lacking players with fundamentals needed to win it all. Sabathia has a checkered playoff history, and A.J. Burnett has, well, no playoff history. What can we expect from Joba Chamberlain? Beyond Rivera and Phil Hughes, can anyone in that bullpen be trusted? These are questions and concerns that have to make every Yankees fan nervous. Unlike the Red Sox and Angels, I think the Yankees have peaked at the wrong time.

PHILADELPHIA (leads NL East by 7 games): The Phillies are just 6-7 this month and despite their undeniable talent look like they're about to back into the playoffs. It's very, very hard to repeat as World Series Champs, and it's almost as hard to just make the playoffs the next year after winning the World Series. So I give Charlie Manuel and the rest of that team plenty of credit for fielding such a strong crew this year, augmented by the dominance of Cliff Lee since he came over from Cleveland.

Without a doubt, my favorite part of the Phillies and their season is the rebirth of Pedro Martinez. Any team could have had Pedro this spring, but he settled on Philadelphia and the results have been terrific. He's gone 5-0 with 34 K and 6 BB in 37 2/3 IP so far, and his most recent start gave me chills. Pedro went eight innings, threw an incredible 130 pitches, struck out seven and did not yield a run. Watching him deal reminded me ever so briefly of his first three years in Boston. With that going for them, the Phillies will be playing with a full deck next month.

ST. LOUIS (leads NL Central by 9.5 games): If it's possible, let's forget about Albert Pujols and his from-outer-space season for just a second. The top two starters for the Cardinals have been simply incredible this year, and especially of late. Adam Wainwright, one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball over the last few years, has 18 wins and 175 K in 205 IP so far in '09. And Chris Carpenter, the pride and joy of Exeter, N.H., who threw 21 1/3 innings between '07 and '08, is now pitching better than ever. A lousy start on Sunday ended a string of 13 consecutive quality starts for Carp during which he also went 10-0.

In order for the Cardinals to win next month, they'll need Joel Pineiro and John Smoltz (aka "The Reasons Why the NL is So Inferior to the AL") to step up. Oh, yeah, they also have this guy Pujols I mentioned before. If the 47 HR and 125 RBI don't impress you, maybe the 1.137 OPS will. His partner, Matt Holliday, is hitting a cool .371 since the trade from Oakland. It's because of these players that I believe St. Louis presents the strongest challenge to L.A. in the playoffs.

SAN FRANCISCO (trails NL Wild Card by 3.5 games): Tim Lincecum, who's been dealing with some lingering injuries, came out last night and dominated the Rockies in a series his club badly needs to sweep. If the Giants get into the postseason, nobody in the NL will want to face them, as I mentioned above. Lincecum is the best pitcher in the league, Matt Cain is pretty darn close, and Barry Zito has actually been very useful (shocking, I know). With Brad Penny looking right at home back in the NL West, the Giants are a very scary team.

They need their offense to come through. GM Brian Sabean paid a hefty price to bring in Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez at the deadline, and both have underwhelmed. Beyond Kung Fu Panda Sandoval, the Giants are an offensively-challenged group. They need to look toward veterans Aaron Rowand and Bengie Molina to guide them through the next couple of weeks. Zito needs to come through tonight against Jimenez and the Rockies, and they could be on their way to an October berth. Just the thought makes these other NL contenders shudder.

TEXAS (trails AL Wild Card by 4.5 games): I thought the Red Sox would have put away the Rangers by now. But here they are, still within striking distance of keeping Boston out of the playoffs. This is a huge week for the Rangers, but it didn't exactly get off to a hot start. They were routed by the lowly A's last night with one of their best pitchers, 16-game winner Scott Feldman, on the bump. With the Red Sox playing the Angels, Texas has a big opportunity to make up some ground, but they won't do anything of use if they keep shooting themselves in the foot.

Unless the Red Sox undergo an unforeseen collapse (they do have Billy Wagner, after all), I don't see the Rangers making up all this ground in just over two weeks. But major credit should be given to Ron Washington for motivating these players to get to this point. Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler and Marlon Byrd have all enjoyed fine seasons, and there's plenty of promise for this group of players going forward. They are one of few teams this year that might not make the playoffs but their season will still be considered a success.

Enjoy the rest of the games.

The Home Stretch

2009-08-22T10:42:00.000-07:00

As usual, I seem to have taken the summer off from writing about baseball. It's hard between good weather, work and searching for long-term employment to sit down and really come up with something interesting to write in this space. Some of you may be aware that a blog post I wrote over at Puckin' Right was picked up by Yahoo! Sports and their blog Puck Daddy (check out the second bullet point), giving my writing its greatest online exposure ever. I pretty much screwed the pooch on that one by not writing more immediately after, but if I can't find the motivation to write about baseball in the summer, hockey won't have much of chance. But I'm here now, and I'm no longer in the business of promising new posts.

Let's talk some Sox. Everyone knows about their struggles since the All-Star break, going 14-17 and never finding much consistency in either pitching or offense. Coming off a series sweep in Toronto the Red Sox scored 11 runs against the Yankees last night but still lost by nine, thanks in part to the remarkably bad Brad Penny. It seems that when deadline acquisition Victor Martinez is catching, Boston can sport a deep lineup that rivals any in baseball, especially with David Ortiz, Jason Bay, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew all hitting well at the moment. The question right now comes down to the pitching.

According to WEEI.com's Mike Petraglia, Tim Wakefield will be activated from the DL to pitch next Wednesday in place of Penny, a move many have considered long overdue. Like the failed John Smoltz experiment, Penny hasn't lived up to any kind of expectation, proving once again that only the mightiest can make the transition from the National League to the American League successfully. The Sox are getting excellent performances from Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, who's rebounded from some early difficulties to throw three fine games in a row against the best pitchers in the AL (CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay). If the Sox get into the playoffs, I'd be more than satisfied with those top three starters. However, because the Sox are only a game up on Texas for the Wild Card, whomever takes up those last two spots might determine if playing in October is a reality this year.

Junichi Tazawa goes today, and even though I believe he's got an excellent career in front of him, it's unfortunate he's been thrown into the fire this early in his development. With Wakefield replacing Penny, Tazawa should get at least one more start after today, with FA signing Paul Byrd and the rehabbing Daisuke Matsuzaka on the horizon as possibilities to slide into the rotation. One or two of these starters must emerge as viable winning options for Boston if they hope to make the playoffs. Otherwise we're looking at the most disappointing Red Sox season in recent memory.

The stalwart presence on this team throughout has been the strong bullpen, but some chinks in that armor have been exposed in the dog days of August. Extreme taxing as a result of inconsistent starting efforts have caused guys like Ramon Ramirez, Daniel Bard and Manny Delcarmen to struggle in recent weeks. But help could be on the way in the form of Billy Wagner, who was claimed on waivers by the Sox yesterday. They have until Tuesday at 1 p.m. to work out a deal with the Mets, and given the financial instability of that franchise, I expect something to happen.

Wagner is coming off Tommy John surgery and appeared in his first MLB game of 2009 on Thursday by setting down the Braves in order and touching 96 mph with his fastball. The lefty fireballer is set to be a free agent at 38 and is undoubtedly one of the best closers in baseball history. Wagner wants to win a World Series before hanging them up, so he'd probably waive his no-trade clause to come Boston. My fingers are crossed that something gets done.

I was sincerely hoping this club would win plenty in August so they'd be well out in front in the Wild Card and essentially spend September as a tune-up for October. That hasn't been the case at all, and 19 of their next 24 games will come against teams in playoff contention. At the very least the Sox have concluded a difficult period in which they played only four home games through the first 20 days of August.

I still have high hopes for the 2009 Red Sox. If everything clicks, they can be one of the top teams in baseball. Unlike the Yankees, who might be peaking too early, perhaps the Red Sox will peak in September and October. They shouldn't concern themselves with what New York, Texas or Tampa are doing. All they can do the rest of the way is win as much as possible.

Thoughts on the First Half

2009-07-14T07:58:00.000-07:00

Baseball's best and brightest will gather in St. Louis tonight for that annual rite of summer, the All-Star Game. The AL will inevitably win, and the FOX broadcast team will inevitably make me want to pull my hair out. If you care about my useless opinions on the game, follow my Twitter feed for some live updates throughout the evening. At the very least, you'll get to see me make jokes at Joe Buck and Tim McCarver's expense all night.

With the first half of the MLB season behind us, let's answer some of the burning (or not so burning) questions about what's happened so far, with an eye towards what to expect in the second half. Without anything resembling ado:

Who have been the best teams in both leagues so far, and who's looking strong for a second half run?

The Kings of the AL in the first half were the Boston Red Sox, owners of a 54-34 record at the break and a three-game cushion on the New York Yankees in the East Division. They've overcome a mammoth drop-off from David Ortiz and early pitching inconsistency because of an incredible bullpen (though showing signs of wear lately, these four days off could not have come at a better time) and excellent offensive performances by Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay and Dustin Pedroia. Ortiz has broken out of his slump (hitting 11 HR with 29 RBI since June 1), and manager Terry Francona has used some out-of-the-box thinking to mold his lineup. J.D. Drew (.377 OBP) was inserted as the full-time leadoff man over Jacoby Ellsbury (.347 OPB) and it's added stability to the top of the order while Ellsbury adds needed spark to the bottom half.

The AL's only 11-game winners play for Boston, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield. Beckett and Jon Lester are the club's two aces, and John Smoltz is poised for a great second half. This club is deep in starting pitching, deep in their bullpen and deep on their bench with the likes of Mike Lowell and Jed Lowrie soon to come off the DL. They'll be players in the trade market for some of the bigger names, but unless another injury comes up I doubt they will make a big move.

The Dodgers have been the class of the NL, sporting baseball's best record at 56-32 going into the break. Manny Ramirez and his 50-game suspension have dominated the headlines surrounding manager Joe Torre's club, but they've overcome the distractions and emerged as a deep, impressive team. Their offense has been well-rounded by the likes of Orlando Hudson, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Casey Blake and the shocking turnaround for Juan Pierre (.387 OBP, 23 SB) who played LF in Ramirez's absence. The rotation has been spearheaded by Chad Billingsley, Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw, and the back end has been helped by surprising performances by Jeff Weaver and Eric Milton through the year.

They will be looking for bullpen depth to help out bull-like closer Jonathan Broxton and his band of heavily-worked relievers, and they might also be in the market for starters. But in a lousy NL, these guys are the only team that could compete with the best of the AL. And with Manny back, the sky is the limit for how far the Dodgers can go through the rest of 2009.

Look for a big second half from from Tampa, who have overcome their injury and inconsistency issues, and Colorado, who are one piece away from making the NL West and Wild Card races very interesting.

Who are the most surprising teams so far?

This is pretty easy for both leagues. I'll be the first to admit I was dead wrong about the Detroit Tigers. They are 3.5 games up on Chicago for lead in the AL Central, and they've been buoyed by something I never expected: strong starting pitching. Justin Verlander (10-4, 3.38 ERA, 149 K, 122.1 IP) and Edwin Jackson (7-4, 2.52 ERA, 97 K, 121.2 IP) have provided manager Jim Leyland with tremendous stability. Rookie Rick Porcello has lived up to his incredible hype with eight wins (they've also limited him to 87 IP so far, which can only be a good thing). Fernando Rodney leads a rag-tag bullpen that's been excellent so far, with Bobby Seay amongst the league leaders in holds (19). With a strong offense led by Brandon Inge, Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson, I think the Tigers have potential to run away and hide in this poor Central Division. It remains to be seen if they can afford to add payroll at the deadline.

Over in the Senior Circuit, the San Francisco Giants have defied all expectations and find themselves up two games in the NL Wild Card race. Like Detroit, the Giants are led by their two aces, Tim Lincecum (10-2, 2.33 ERA, 149 K, 127.2 IP) and Matt Cain (10-2, 2.38 ERA, 95 K, 117 IP), the best 1-2 combo in the NL this year. Barry Zito as been uncharacteristically not terrible thus far, and with Randy Johnson and recent no-no thrower Jonathan Sanchez rounding out the rotation, this will be their strength going forward. The best hitter for the Giants has been Pablo Sandoval, a pudgy, versatile slugger lovingly nicknamed "Kung Fu Panda" with 15 HR and a .333 average in 2009. They need more hitting, but their pitching will keep them in contention all year.

Who are the first half MVPs and Cy Youngs in each league?

No question the NL MVP so far is Albert Pujols. Despite his protestations in a recent SportsCenter commercial that he's not a machine, well, the guy's a freakin' machine. The numbers speak for themselves: .332-32-87-73-10 with a 1.179 OPS and just 35 K in 307 AB this year. It also doesn't hurt that he's the NL's best defender at first base. It's hard to say if Pujols will be allowed to have a historic season because teams are pitching to him less and less. The Cardinals are leading the NL Central, and they're going to need Pujols to continue this line of production if they want to play in October. At 29, with 351 career HR, Pujols is undoubtedly the best player in baseball today and will soon enter the discussion of the best players to ever step on a field.

AL MVP is a bit tougher, but I'll go with Joe Mauer, even though his team has disappointed so far in 2009. Despite missing the first month of 2009, Mauer is leading the AL with a .373 average with 15 HR and remains the best catcher around. He is the heart of this team, and the Twins must do whatever it takes to keep him in Minnesota beyond the end of his current deal in 2010.

Zack Greinke is your AL Cy Young for the first half. The KC ace got off to a ridiculous start with 73 K and only 12 BB and six earned runs in his first 66 IP in 2009. We always knew what Greinke was capable of, but I never could have imagined anything of this ilk. He slowed a bit over the last month or so, finishing up at 10-5 with a 2.12 ERA with 129 K and 21 BB in 122.1 IP. Greinke and closer Joakim Soria are the only players worth a crap out of the 25 on the Royals, but if I was a Royals fan I'd be pretty psyched about getting to see Greinke pitch 15 times the rest of the season.

In the NL, it's meet the new boss, same as the old boss; Lincecum is on his way to a second consecutive Cy Young Award. When he's not busy looking exactly like Mitch Kramer and avoiding Ben Affleck's paddle, Lincy is mowing guys down as much as ever. I'm sure the Royals are happy they took Luke Hochevar in the '06 draft over him and Evan Longoria.

Who's going to get traded at the deadline? Better question: who's NOT getting traded?

Ever since J.P. Ricciardi flapped his yap and said he'd listen to offers on Roy Hallady, the rumor world has been aflutter with potential deals that could be made for one of baseball's best pitchers and the starter for the AL in tonight's contest. For the next few weeks you can expect to hear tons about possible landing places for Halladay. I'll tell you where he's going to end up: Toronto. Ricciardi might be a moron, but he's not stupid enough to trade Halladay for anything less than a king's ransom. Since that seems unlikely to happen, a Halladay trade will not happen until this winter at the earliest. But that won't stop the non-rumors and non-news and non-happenings in the coming days. Wonderful.

Matt Holliday and just about everyone of value on the A's will be available at the deadline. Other sellers will include Baltimore, Cleveland, KC, Washington, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Arizona with a few others likely to join before the month ends. This will be an odd deadline because there's a lot of parity this year and teams are not willing to give up young, cost-controlled talent for rentals. I really can't imagine a scenario this year where a team like the Brewers gives up a talented MLB-close prospect with no service time like Matt LaPorta for an impeding free agent like CC Sabathia, regardless of how important a piece like Sabathia is for a contender. It's because of this that I believe we'll have one of the most quiet deadlines in years. I could be, and home I am, wrong.

So who's winning the World Series?

The Red Sox, of course. Who else do you think I'd pick?

Enjoy the game tonight, and get ready for a second half to remember.

The Invisible Man, Soon to be Gone Forever

2009-06-23T18:31:00.000-07:00

One member of the Boston Red Sox current roster has been absent from the box scores of all games since June 14, without a whisper of an injury or any other serious issue coming out of the clubhouse. That player has seen no at-bats, no pinch-running, no defensive replacements; a tremendous rarity for an active player during the Terry Francona era.

That player is Julio Lugo. And if the last week and a half has been any indication, his days with the Red Sox appear to be numbered.

Nick Green has firmly entrenched himself as this team's starting shortstop. Green, a career utility man who did not appear in the Majors at all last season, has gained more and more comfort with both Boston and a position that's not his natural one. His walk-off "home run" (if you want to call it that) against Atlanta last weekend provided the high point of his season thus far. At .293/.345/.459 going into Tuesday's action, only Derek Jeter and Jason Bartlett are better offensive shortstops in the American League right now.

Whether Green stays as the primary shortstop depends on how Jed Lowrie performs upon returning from his lengthy DL stint. Lowrie should have had surgery on his wrist last winter, but didn't get it until starting the season 1-for-18. Now on a rehab assignment in Pawtucket, Lowrie should be ready for the Majors very soon.

That makes Lugo, whose defense has completely eroded and offense has shown only light flashes in limited '09 play, the odd man out. The letters "DFA" appear to be in his future. Some other scenarios would include sending Green, who's playing on a minor league contract this year, to Pawtucket and going with Lowrie and Lugo (this is highly unlikely since Green is doing so well and Lowrie might not play everyday initially), or optioning Lowrie to Pawtucket once his rehab assignment ends and continuing with the current arragement. This can't be ruled out, but it's fairly obvious that Lowrie (or anyone for that matter) has more value to the big club than Lugo does now, and when Lowrie is healthy he belongs in the Majors.

When talking about Lowrie on Tuesday, Francona said, "He's got to play. There's no getting around it." At the very least, having Lowrie and Green gives the Red Sox more flexibility since they can both play three infield positions while Lugo is limited to shortstop, which he sucks at anyway.

It's no secret the Red Sox have been shopping Lugo for a long, long time now. Anybody that wants a mediocre shortstop with roughly $14 million guaranteed remaining on his salary could have him. Unfortunately for Theo Epstein, no one's biting, and no one will bite. Even if the Red Sox were to pay the rest of his salary, no team in baseball is willing to give up anything in return.

I see no other reason why the Red Sox would knowingly keep Lugo off the field for this long. Francona is all about keeping guys fresh and making everyone happy in regards to playing time. It's been his MO since showing up in Boston. They obviously don't care about getting this guy on the field because they don't expect him to be on the team much longer.

They will designate Lugo for assignment, giving the club 10 days to figure what to do next. If Lugo isn't traded after those 10 days, the Red Sox will release him, and will be on the hook for that $14 million or so still owed.

It will look bad for Epstein and the Red Sox, who were so high on Lugo for years and threw $36 million at him when there were few other suitors in 2006. Lugo's detractors are quick to forget how much he improved both offensively and defensively down the stretch in 2007 and that he was a key contributor to their World Series run, going 5-for-13 in the Fall Classic.

But that's all in the past. Lugo is a sunk cost, and the Red Sox have resigned themselves to that fact. Lugo's contract is one of the many reasons why Epstein has soured on big deals for non-superstars and why you'll likely never see another one for Boston during his tenure. Case in point: the Red Sox were forced to give up their '07 first round pick to the Dodgers upon signing Lugo. They could not have forseen this happening, but if they had that pick, they likely would have selected Rick Porcello, who should have gone in the top five but fell due to signability concerns. As a Red Sox fan, who would you rather have on the club right now: Porcello or Lugo?

Revisionist history doesn't really matter now. Lugo is a goner, and the Red Sox will be better for it.

The Back of the Rotation Quandary

2009-06-14T09:29:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox will look to sweep the Phillies Sunday afternoon, and given how taxed their bullpen has been these past two games, they'll also be looking towards Josh Beckett to continue his dominant ways. Beckett got off to a rough start in 2009, but he's allowed just one earned run in his past four starts and appears to be back to his 2007 form. Jon Lester has overcome an even rougher 2009 outset, with a ridiculous 34 strikeouts in his last three outings.

With quite possibly the best bullpen in franchise history and an offense gaining steam behind some David Ortiz consistency, the re-emergence of Beckett and Lester ought to cement the Red Sox as the team to beat in the AL through the rest of the year. Yet, it's the logjam at the back of the rotation that is creating headaches for the front office.

John Smoltz went to the hill Friday for what could be his final rehab start for Pawtucket. At this time, Smoltz is in a "holding pattern," and he'll pitch somewhere this Thursday. It's not known at this time where that start will take place. Tim Wakefield is scheduled to pitch Tuesday, with Brad Penny set to go Wednesday and Lester on Thursday.

Trade rumors have been swirling around Penny for weeks now. After Monday, they Red Sox will be able to trade Penny without his consent. He had perhaps his best 2009 start on Thursday, lasting six shutout innings against the Yankees and definitely upping his trade value in the process. Penny has about $4 million guaranteed remaining on his salary for the rest of this season. With so few teams able to take on payroll this year, the Red Sox will probably have to pay most of that salary to get anything of value in return. Penny could be the last piece for several NL clubs, including the Mets, Phillies or Cardinals. If they really want Penny, they should be giving up at least one solid prospect for his services.

The Red Sox clearly believe in Smoltz, and they want to give their $5.5 million investment a chance at the Big League level. They believe that a postseason rotation including Beckett, Lester and Smoltz would be relatively unbeatable and give them a significant advantage over every other club. But there's only five rotation spots, and the six-man rotation ideas being thrown out are totally bogus. Routines are essential to starting pitchers, and throwing off those routines could be disastrous.

The question is, who goes? We've already discussed Penny, the most attractive trade candidate. If this were based solely on performance, Daisuke Matsuzaka would be the odd man out. He looked particularly bad Saturday night in an abbreviated outing, getting smacked around like a rented mule. He's complained after his last two starts about some level of physical discomfort. Dice-K is clearly not all the way back, and another trip to the DL seems imminent. Smoltz could slide into the rotation in his place.

But that's only a temporary fix. Hopefully Dice-K would only spend a few weeks then be back to his nibbling self. A move will still have to be made. And we've haven't even mentioned the two aces in Pawtucket, Clay Buchholz (4-0, 1.75 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 59 K in 67 IP) and Michael Bowden (3-3, 2.48 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 42 K in 65.1 IP), and both are proving they have nothing left to prove in Triple-A.

The guess here is Smoltz starts for Pawtucket on Thursday and they give Matsuzaka one more start to prove he's not completely worthless. If that outing goes poorly, the Red Sox will hold off on dealing Penny, put Dice-K on the DL and put Smoltz into the rotation. If Matsuzaka is fine, Penny probably gets shipped off to the NL before Smoltz has to come off the DL.

As for Bowden and Buchholz, it's possible the Red Sox have something big in the offing in terms of a trade for a big bat. However, it would only make sense for them to trade those pitchers if they could get a player back with commensurate MLB service time. At least that's the way the Red Sox rationalize it.

Too much pitching is always a good problem to have. But as we've seen in the past, pitching can dry up in a hurry. The Red Sox should only deal from their surplus if they feel it will benefit the club in both the long and short term.

Trade Talk in June

2009-06-07T16:01:00.000-07:00

Let us begin with the big trade of the past week, Nate McLouth unleashed from baseball purgatory in Pittsburgh for a package of young Braves including Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez and Redstone's own Jeff Locke. The trade, which came the same day Tom Glavine was unceremoniously dumped by Atlanta, sent shockwaves up both ends of the East Coast.

McLouth had a terrific first half in 2008 but finished with a .276/.356/.497 line along with 26 HR and 23 SB. He was awarded a Gold Glove but probably didn't deserve it, and in February the Pirates signed him to a team-friendly extension buying out his arbitration years for $15.75 million along with a $10.65 million option for 2012 (how they came up with that number probably involved a dartboard). At 27, I think the Pirates gave up on McLouth a bit too soon for a return that leaves something to be desired.

This week, Pirates players like Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche publicly voiced their displeasure with the deal, with Pittsburgh only three games under .500 and 6.5 games out in the NL Central. GM Neal Huntington issued an open letter to fans defending the trade, which is never a good sign. The Pirates have not finished higher than 4th this decade, with zero winning seasons since 1992 (call it The Curse of Francisco Cabrera and Sid Bream). They began last year with a great outfield of McClouth, Xavier Nady and Jason Bay, all of whom now play in different cities. It's amazing to me they have any fans left to fill their beautiful park.

Morton is an OK starter who's probably reached his ceiling as a Quad-A type. This is the second time Hernandez has been dealt before getting to the Majors. And as for Mr. Locke, to me he was the centerpiece of the trade for the Pirates. For the first time in his whole life, Jeff is facing adversity when it comes to getting guys out. His WHIP was an uncharacteristically high 1.60 through 45 2/3 IP with his old team in Myrtle Beach. He's still only given up one HR this year and should benefit from going to a better team in Lynchburg, Va.

I haven't talked to Jeff personally since the deal went down, but I'm sure it must all be a little surreal for him. It's easy to forget, as fans of the game, the emotional and personal impact of trades like this until someone you know is involved in one. He's spent the past three years with the Braves, and forged friendships with teammates and people in the organization. So now his name gets put all over ESPN and he's got to move from one town to another, and will be expected to be pretty good since the Pirates gave up an All-Star to get him.

I believe Jeff will be pitching in the Show someday. That it will probably happen closer to home, and probably sooner that it would have in Atlanta, is a good thing. We're all pulling for you, Lefty. Continue to make us proud.

Elsewhere...

It seems clear the Red Sox will be making a trade involving Brad Penny in the next couple weeks. John Smoltz is slated to return from the DL on June 16, with Penny's scheduled turn in the rotation coming the next day against Philadelphia. The best guess here is that Penny will be dealt in the days leading up to that. There have been many teams mentioned as potential suitors, and the Red Sox should be able to pick up a decent prospect as long as they're willing to pay a significant portion of Penny's remaining salary. Smoltz has been lighting it up in his rehab starts, and it's exciting to think he'll soon be wearing a Red Sox uniform.

Several members of the Cleveland Indians have to be wondering about their futures. They are a last-place club with plenty of valuable pieces, including Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee and Mark DeRosa amongst others. No doubt DeRosa gets dealt, the Mets could use some depth especially with Jose Reyes likely to miss the rest of June. It will be harder pry away Martinez or Lee, but we saw last year with CC Sabathia that GM Mark Shapiro will pull the trigger if he feels he's getting good value in return. This year appears to be a lost cause for the Tribe, so Shapiro should be listening on his hot commodities.

Out west, the Athletics and GM Billy Beane find themselves in a similar situation. Matt Holliday could be a huge prize of Beane makes him available at the deadline, and Buster Olney mentioned today that Beane's disussed Orlando Cabrera with the Red Sox. The Mariners also have to decide if they're buying or selling, with the rejuvenated Erik Bedard at the center of rumors. It appears the Rangers are for real after taking two of three in Boston this weekend, and if the Angels wake up there ought to be a good pennant race out there through the summer. The other two teams should sell, in my opinion.

Final note: I've added a badge to my Twitter page on the right-hand side, and you may have noticed I've been spending most of my time on that discussing stick and puck instead of bat and ball. There's only, at most, two games left in the NHL season, so hopefully I should be back to writing about baseball both here and there more frequently very soon.

Big Papi's 21st Century Breakdown

2009-05-19T12:01:00.000-07:00

Yes, I did reference the new Green Day album in the title of this blog post. The difference between the album and David Ortiz? "21st Century Breakdown" is awesome, but David Ortiz sucks. If his recent layoff doesn't create better results, the Red Sox will have plenty of questions to answer about the future of their offense.

Terry Francona elected to give Ortiz four whole days off following his most putrid performance of the 2009 season thus far last Thursday, when the former slugger went 0-for-7 and left a stunning 12 men on base. His season numbers tell the full story: a line of .208/.318/.300, 30 strikeouts in 130 at-bats and exactly zero home runs.

I feel like it's been theorized ad naseum about what exactly is wrong with Big Papi. What we'll discover, beginning with tonight's tilt against Toronto, is if this uber-slump has been because of something mental. I assume the biggest reason behind the hiatus was getting his head straight, and probably also to work on whatever holes exist in his swing.

But I'm skeptical about his problems being purely mental. This is David Ortiz we're talking about. How is it possible that the same guy who has perfomed at historic levels under pressure would fold psychologically during an afternoon contest in Anaheim in mid-May? I also refuse to acknowledge the chatter about steroids because at this time it's completely baseless.

Therefore, it has to be something physical. He dealt with a sore shoulder February, and probably should not have participated in the World Baseball Classic because of it. (I'm not going to blame the WBC for his troubles because whatever effect it had couldn't be this adverse). There has been constant issues with his knees through the last few years, and he missed significant time last season after partially tearing a tendon in his left wrist. He never had surgery on the wrist, and actually performed pretty well upon returning.

His issues at the plate are coming as a result of at least one of these three things, if not a combination of all three. There's no other explanation at this point. The question: If Ortiz really is hurt, why isn't he saying anything about it? Doesn't he realize that by staying out there and hitting so ineffectively that he's simply crushing his team?

Francona, whose undying faith in his players has definitely hurt the Red Sox in the past, will soon make public where the post-layoff Ortiz will bat in the order. I would be surprised if Francona moves Ortiz out of the 3rd spot just because that's what Francona does. And this continuation will definitely hurt the team if Ortiz continues to suck, and the run totals for Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia will drop. Kevin Youkilis will return to the lineup tomorrow, which should help. But J.D. Drew should hit third, with Youkilis fourth and Jason Bay fifth, followed by Ortiz. If this actually happens soon, I'll be shocked.

But how long will the Red Sox allow Ortiz to murder them, regardless of where he hits in the order? Say Ortiz is still homerless in two weeks. The Red Sox will have no choice but to put Papi on the DL. They might have to make up an injury so long as Ortiz is unwilling to admit that he's unhealthy. Either way, they'll need to look for another source of power. Indians like Victor Martinez and Matt LaPorta have already been bandied about, and with the Sox eight-deep in their starting rotation, a deal for a slugger is probable.

Yet, maybe four days off will make all the difference. Maybe Ortiz comes out tonight against Brian Tallet, goes deep twice, and leads the Red Sox to an important victory. Youkilis returns, the starting pitching finds consistency, the bullpen continues to dominate, and the Red Sox overtake the Blue Jays and sit in the AL East driver's seat will into the summer.

It's hard to be optimistic. Big Papi just doesn't seem like the same ballplayer, just three years after belting 54 homers. Unlike Green Day, David Ortiz isn't getting better with age.

Would the Tigers Really Release Mags?

2009-05-13T13:30:00.000-07:00

The Tigers entered Wednesday in a virtual tie with the Royals for the best record in the AL Central Division. Miguel Cabrera and Brandon Inge have been hitting well with Edwin Jackson carrying the rotation. This team needed a strong start given the precarious economic condition of their city, and attendance hasn't been too bad so far (hovering around the 21,000-27,000 mark). But they've got one tiny little problem: one of their highest-paid players is performing well below expectations. And they might be forced to pay him even more if they don't cut bait on his contract soon.

Magglio Ordonez has been ice cold in 2009, with three extra-base hits and a pedestrian .634 OPS in 112 at bats this season. He's making a cool $18 million this year with another $18 million due next year should he hit 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in '09. That option has a $3 million buyout, plus there's also the matter of a 2011 option for $15 million with no buyout should he reach the same plateaus in '10.

Jim Leyland has been dropping Mags, 35, down in the order and taking him out of games for defensive replacements of late. Is this an indirect attempt to decrease plate appearances so he won't trigger the $18 million option for next year?

Or, why won't the Tigers just bite the bullet, release Ordonez and save themselves millions in the process, as has been rumored for some time now? They'd still be on the hook for about $17.5 million this year and the $3 million 2010 buyout. But that's a lot better than owing him an additional $15 million next year and potentially $15 million in 2011. Don't forget, we're talking about an already-declining outfielder who's about to become a full-time DH in his age 36 and 37 seasons with an extensive injury history.

Alright, lets hit the brakes on this one for a second. The Tigers are contending, even surprising in 2009. People are still turning out to the ballpark and summer is fast approaching. Even though Mags has struggled, dumping a player with his track record (after all, he hit .363 only two years ago) would send the wrong message to Detroit fans.

If they want fans to keep filling up seats, a sure-fire way to divert their attention away would be to say, "Well, we've got a solid club but we're going to send one of our veteran leaders packing for nothing so we can save ourselves $30 million over the next two years. But hey, bleacher seats are only $7! Come on out to Comerica!"

Also, who's to say Ordonez won't turn it around? The season is still young, and he's never hit lower than .282 during any season of his career. Sure, he can't play the field everyday like he used to and will need to DH quite a bit. But isn't that part of the reason why they dumped Sheffield over the spring? He's also averaged 24 homers over the last three seasons. He's not dead yet. If I can talk myself into a David Ortiz turnaround, then surely Mags can do the same.

But that number looms large: $30 million. For an aging slugger. In a town that's short on luck and hope, let alone money. It's a tough call. As long as the club is contending, they have to hang on to Ordonez. But if things go south come July or August, and that 540 PA appears within reach, the Tigers won't have much of a choice. The sensible move will be to move on from Mags.

It's a sad reality that we even have to have this discussion. But as Brandon Flowers sang at Mohegan Sun the other night, this is the world that we live in.

The Strasburg Phenomenon

2009-05-03T19:14:00.000-07:00

He's the pitching version of Roy Hobbs. Well, besides the whole "getting shot on a train by a deranged woman" thing, hopefully.

It was confirmed last week that the Washington Nationals will select San Diego State right-hander Stephen Strasburg with the top pick in next month's draft. This might qualify as the least surprising news item of the season thus far.

If you call yourself a baseball fan, and haven't been living under a rock for the past few months, you probably already know a lot about Strasburg. The 6', 4", 220-pound hurler started gaining notoriety last year when he went 8-3 with a 1.57 ERA and 133 Ks in 97.1 innings for Tony Gwynn's Aztecs. He was the only collegiate player selected to play for Team USA in the Beijing Olympics. He chose Scott Boras to be his "adviser," ensuring he meant business about the 2009 draft.

What Strasburg has in his possession is an array of lethal pitches, and the strong physical presence on the mound to go with them, that comes along once in a generation. His fastball consistently tops out at 101 mph, and unlike most pitchers with that kind of velocity, the pitch has late-moving action and his control of it is impeccable. And that's just his four-seamer. His mid-90s two-seamer has a dirty sinking action out of his clean, repeatable delivery.

Strasburg's slider is only a few mph slower, and usually stays in the low-90s (Randy Johnson and Robb Nen, in their respective primes, are the only guys I can remember to regularly sport sliders in the low-90s). His curveball has apparently hit 88 mph, and darts away from right-handed hitters in a way that seems almost unfair. Here's some highlights of a 23-strikeout performance against Utah last year (remember, kids, you only get 27 outs in a regulation baseball game).

That set of skills has elicited some of the most astonishing quotes I've ever read from scouts, including those in this terrific SI profile by Lee Jenkins. The consensus: Strasburg is the best pitching prospect to come along since Roger Clemens was lighting it up at Texas, no one is even close to him in the 2009 draft, he's ready to pitch in the big leagues from day one, and he may or may not be the best thing since this.

That skill set has also produced these eye-popping 2009 spring numbers: 10-0, 1.38 ERA, 147 K, 15 BB in 78.1 IP. Allow me to repeat: he has 147 strikeouts in less than 80 innings this year.

The Jenkins piece illuminates a feel-good story about Strasburg's maturation from an overweight, hot-headed teenager with big talent but little motivation to one of the best prospects ever through hard work and determination. Given how precious and valuable his right arm will be, Gwynn limits Strasburg to one start a week and sensibly to 115 pitches in those starts. The stage appears to be set for the Nats to select Strasburg first, and that's where the real fun will begin.

Over the winter, whispers made the rounds that Boras would seek a record-shattering six-year, $50 million pact from any club willing to draft Strasburg. As Peter Gammons recently delineated, Boras wouldn't really be that far off in that calculation for his worth over the next six years.

Still, it'd be awfully surprising to see someone who's never pitched a professional inning get $50 million, especially two years after David Price got $8.5 million over in six-year deal with the Rays in addition to a $5.6 million bonus. I have no doubt Strasburg's deal will set records, but just not in that drastic of a way. Instead of six years, I suspect Washington will offer Strasburg three years at around $20 million, with a bonus near $10 million. Boras will wait right to the 11:59 p.m. deadline on August 15, but it'll be in his client's best interest to take that deal.

Although Strasburg's overall talent is undeniable, his staggering college numbers have one potential drawback: they've come while Strasburg has pitched in the Mountain West Conference, which is not considered one of college baseball's premiere conferences. I'd feel much more confident in his abilities had those numbers come in the SEC, ACC or Pac-10.

And let us not forget the less-than-stellar track record of top pitchers taken in the amateur draft. The most prominent cautionary tale is that of Brien Taylor, drafted #1 overall by the Yankees in 1991. He was similarly lauded as a can't-miss, once-in-a-generation talent, but tore his labrum in a 1993 bar fight and never made it to the Majors. Others like Ben McDonald and Bryan Bullington never lived up the hype, either.

Strasburg has all the potential in the world and then some, but comparisons to Roger Clemens and visions of dollar signs aren't going to make him a great pro pitcher, not even a good one. I want to believe a kid who throws 101 mph will have a long, productive MLB career, but these stories often end in a malaise of rehab stints and trips to the office of Dr. James Andrews.

However, none of that should dampen what's been a ridiculous spring for Strasburg, one that will soon make him a very rich young man. He can inject life into a moribund franchise and bring people out to the ballpark for an otherwise non-desrcript team. It will be good for the game at large to have someone like Strasburg hit immediate success.

The Roy Hobbs of pitchers is coming. Don't miss him.

The 800-Pound Gorilla in the Bullpen

2009-04-24T10:25:00.000-07:00

(Allow me to preface this post by saying that I can't take full credit for this idea. This was born out of a conversation Sam and I had over the winter, and it's taken some time to develop. But the biggest claim in this post, and it's overall theme about the above closer's future in Boston, came from Sam originally. I'm just enunciating it further here.)

When Jonathan Papelbon hit arbitration this past winter, we knew the dollar figure would probably be pretty high for his 2009 salary. After all, not every closer averages 38 saves with a 1.84 ERA during their first three full professional seasons. The dollar figure wound up being $6.25 million, the third-highest ever for a player in his first year of arbitration.

Like so many other teams, the Red Sox have been trying to lock up their young players to team-friendly extensions that buy out arbitration and at least the first year of free agency. They were successful in the offseason with Dustin Pedroia (6 years, $40.5 million, 2015 option), Jon Lester (5 years, $30 million, 2014 option) and, while not really so "young" anymore at 30, Kevin Youkilis (4 years, $41.25 million, 2013 option). When Papelbon and his agents were approached with a similar package, it didn't exactly go the way the Red Sox envisioned.

Boston's offer was, according to Papelbon, "so far off" that it wasn't even considered. When Jon Heyman hypothetically queried Papelbon if he'd take $10 million a year (which I'm fairly positive is the max the Red Sox would want to pay him right now), he gave a non-answer. He's consistently stated that, as a "gambling man," he wants to go year-to-year as opposed to signing an extension. Papelbon thinks very highly of himself, and believes it's his duty to set the market for closers.

If this holds true, and Papelbon looks to go year-to-year, his 2010 salary will likely be around $10 million, and 2011 could approach $15 million, which is what the game's highest-paid closer, Mariano Rivera, will make this year. If Papelbon duplicates the success of the past three years over the next three, he'll assuredly be rewarded with the biggest contract ever for a closer.

There's no way, with how the Red Sox system of valuation works, that they'll ever pay someone who pitches around 60 innings per year anything close to $15 million, let alone whatever crazy number will come up in a free agent contract. There is simply no way. This leads me to my point, and it's something I haven't heard or read anyone in the mainstream media discuss directly:

Unless Papelbon and his representation drastically change course, there's a more than plausible chance the Red Sox trade their popular, All-Star closer before he hits free agency. The Red Sox won't be the ones giving Papelbon that record-shattering contract, and the return in a trade will be much, much greater than the two draft picks.

Blasphemy? Hardly. I'm not even sure how much the Red Sox actually want Papelbon to sign a long-term deal. His shoulder broke down near the end of the 2006 season, and even though he's done a phenomenal job keeping that shoulder strong since, it's hard to overlook that going forward. If you look at the way he's pitched this year, his efficiency has gone out the window and he's become over-reliant on his fastball. What the hell happened to that awesome splitter, anyway? The results have been good, but all the sudden he's become an adventure to get those results.

For all his hype, and all his success in the postseason, and all his status as the most fun member of team with Manny gone, when I watch him pitch now I have to ask myself: Is this really the guy I want the Red Sox to commit to long-term? Is there ANY closer that deserves the kind of money and years he'll be seeking in negotiations? The answer to both questions is no.

Billy Beane made clear in "Moneyball" his disdain for closers as overvalued, injury-prone commodities that he could trade for what he believed to be more useful pieces. He's included incumbent closers Billy Taylor, Billy Koch and Huston Street in deals to pick up other talent, and then use internal candidates or cheaper free agents as closers. I have no doubt Theo Epstein subscribes to a similar theory, and might get a chance to put it to good use.

Trading Papelbon, while still and his prime and not causing a fuss amongst the clubhouse (which was most of the reason why both Nomar and Manny were shipped out) could go down as one of the most unpopular moves in club history if or when it is made. That is, unless the Sox get something of significant value in return. And I believe teams will be willing to pay top dollar for even just one year of Papelbon's services.

With several key hitters set to become free agents over the next two winters (Mike Lowell and Jason Bay, in particular) the Red Sox will have to think about ways to address those needs. Would the Red Sox be able to acquire a big hitter if they made Papelbon the centerpiece of a deal and threw in one or two other top prospects? I think so. Beane did that with Street last offseason and got Matt Holliday, and Street was coming off his most inconsistent season yet. So you have to like Boston's chances there. What if Albert Pujols, or Ryan Howard, or Prince Fielder were to become available? Wouldn't Papelbon, Lars Anderson and another solid prospect get it done for one of those guys?

I'm getting way ahead of myself. But the reality of this situation is closer than you might think. I highly doubt the Red Sox would ever trade Papelbon during a season, even if he was in a walk year. But the next two winters are distinct possibilities, and I believe the club will entertain offers if no extension is hammered out before arbitration numbers are exchanged.

Again, unless Papelbon changes his tune and becomes more receptive towards a team-friendly extension, the Red Sox would be stupid to just let him walk after six seasons. It won't happen. Besides, there's this closer in Pawtucket who struck out the side on nine pitches the other night. You may have heard of him from somewhere.

And if that kid can dominate in the majors as he has in the minors, well, maybe putting Papelbon on the block won't be so far-fetched.

A Rant about Daniel Bard

2009-04-22T13:45:00.000-07:00

In case you don't know, the picture above these words is that of Daniel Bard. He's better than at least one guy currently in the Red Sox bullpen, maybe more. But will we see him in Fenway anytime soon? Not likely.

Bard was the second pick of the Red Sox in the 2006 Draft, when he was one of the hot starters for the UNC Tar Heels along with Andrew Miller. Shortly after he was drafted, I watched Bard pitch in the College World Series, and in one game he was still throwing close to 100 mph even though he'd already pitched seven innings.

He pitched well in instructs that fall, and the Sox started him out in 2007 at the launching pad in Lancaster, Calif. It produced simply awful results. In five starts there he had a 10.12 ERA with 22 BB and 9 K, and he was actually demoted to Greenville so he could build some confidence. That didn't work either. His 17 starts there were riddled with poor control and he finished with a 6.39 ERA. Bard just didn't have enough with his secondary pitches to consistently compliment his blazing fastball. The only logical move for the Red Sox to salvage their former 1st-rounder was to try him as a reliever.

Those results? Much better. After working his slurvy off-speed offering into a solid, mid-80s slider, Bard took off. Between Greenvile and Portland, he managed 107 K and 30 BB in 77 2/3 innings and a 1.50 ERA. He also did not disappoint in spring training. In Peter Gammons' annual column about the most impressive spring performances, Bard was surveyed as the best young arm in either Florida or Arizona.

It wasn't necessarily surprising that Bard was sent to Pawtucket to start the season, but it must have been a disappointment for him given his performance. Now facing Triple-A hitters for the first time, here are his numbers thus far: 6 G, 9 IP, 3 SV, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 16 K. That one hit was a home run.

The Red Sox big league bullpen is doing well right now. They were sterling in the sweep of Baltimore, with Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen continuing to dominate (0 ER in 16 2/3 IP). But there's at least one weak link in the bullpen who doesn't belong, and there's no arguing that Bard would be more useful than that certain lefty specialist: Javier Lopez.

Lopez isn't really that bad. He had a good year last year, and earned his $1.35 million for 2009 based on that. However, I'm fundamentally opposed to relief pitchers in general, and especially opposed to the lefty specialists who I find to be entirely useless. This year, Lopez has been useless at his useless job. So far against lefties, Lopez has surrendered 4 H and 4 BB in just 1.1 IP. Not good.

You can't tell me that Bard, who is right-handed, couldn't have done a better job. Bard's numbers tell me that regardless of what side of the plate they are facing him from, he's getting them out.

That salary for Lopez is low enough that the Red Sox could get a prospect back for him (not a good prospect, just a prospect) and use Bard in a much more, you know, useful capacity. Will they do it?

Almost definitely not. When Dice-K was put on the DL, and it was decided to toss Masterson into the rotation. So who came up to replace Matsuzaka on the roster? You'd think the best reliever in Triple-A, right? No. It was Hunter Jones. Yes, this Hunter Jones. Impressive, I know.

I'm not sure what to make of all this. Do they want Bard to get comfortable facing Triple-A hitters for a month or two before calling him up? But, given Terry Francona's loyalty to Lopez and his useless abilities, who will go down? Nobody else has minor league options besides Jones, as far as I know.

With Jonathan Papelbon's early inconsistency, it's plausible that Daniel Bard is the best relief pitcher in the Red Sox organization. Yet he's not in the big leagues. Let's hope this changes soon.

Random Saturday Thoughts

2009-04-18T12:33:00.000-07:00

Gary Sheffield got his first hit in a Mets uniform last night, but that hit also happened to be the 500th home run of his long career. Sheff did it in classic fashion, cleaning out a Mitch Stetter mistake left up an in with what, at 40, might still be the quickest wrists in the game. It's been a tough spring for Sheffield, who Jim Leyland didn't think was part of his best 25 to carry into April. The Mets took a shot, and they'll use Sheffield this year as a veteran righty power bat off the bench. That's exactly how he was used last night, and his homer tied a game New York would go on to win in the 9th.

Sheff's 500th home run cements his place in Cooperstown, so long as voters are willing to overlook some rather thin steroid allegations. He spent the better part of 15 years as one of the most dangerous right-handed hitters in the game. Sheffield joins Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Alex Rodriguez as the only players to ever amass 500 homers and 250 steals. He's had seasons of 25 homers for six different clubs, and nine All-Star appearances for five different teams. He never led his league in homers, but he did win the batting title (.330) in his only full season in San Diego.

But more than anything, what's set Sheffield apart are the things he brings to the field everyday. The most fierce competitor out there, he could never be accused of dogging it or not doing whatever it takes to win. Despite having hitters like A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi and Matsui, when Sheffield played for the Yankees he was always the guy I didn't want to see come up with men on base late in a game. He's in the top 30 all-time for RBI, with good reason. If you make a mistake up in the zone against him, like Stetter did last night, he'll make you pay seemingly everytime without fail.

There's no question Sheff is a testy guy. He quickly wore out his welcome as young hotshot in Milwaukee, forced his way out of places like San Diego, L.A. and New York, and has never really been afraid to voice his opinions. There aren't a lot of guys like Sheffield left. I'll miss him when he decided to hang them up, which could happen after this year. But if there was any question about his HOF credentials before, it's gone now. He's in.

Some other thoughts on this the first day in three weeks that I haven't had to spend at least 90 minutes in a car:

No matter what the Yankees and their fans might be saying, losing Xavier Nady to TJ surgery for the year is not good. Given the fragility or inconsistency of their outfield corps, Nady was one guy I believe the Yankees were counting on to contribute something close to the .305-27-97-76 line he posted between Pittsburgh and New York in '08. They'll plug in Nick Swisher for now, but they need additional depth. Names like Jason Repko and Austin Kearns have been suggested as possible trade candidates, but they won't be as important going forward as Nady would have been.

In other news, Cody Ransom sucks.

Speaking of the Yankees, they opened the new ballpark this week. I gotta say, I'm impressed, especially with views like this. That familiar frieze surrounding the park harkens back to what the old park looked like prior to the 1970s renovation. I look forward to going there sometime soon, although I might have to get a second job just to afford a ticket.

Harry Kalas died this week, taking from us one of the best voices in all of sports. My favorite memory of Kalas came during my first trip to Citizens Bank Park in May of 2006. In between innings, they played a video on the scoreboard during which Phillies players described their personal favorite foods. After going through most of their roster, right at the end of the video, Kalas' face showed up on the screen. In that low monotone voice, Kalas said the following: "I'd have to say my favorite food is cottage cheese." I couldn't stop laughing for a solid three minutes. Not only was it one of the most random possible favorite food choices, but the way he said it in his famous voice just killed me. He was one of the greats. RIP, Harry.

And, speaking of announcers, there's a lengthy Globe Magazine piece about Jerry Remy that is absolutely fascinating. You might be shocked to learn some of the information about the RemDawg, which is exactly what good feature writing should do. I look at something like this and say, "This is what I want to do."

I'm going to try and keep this updated as often as I can, but to be honest, I hope my sports focus for the next few weeks will be on the Stanley Cup quest for our Boston Bruins, especially now that the Celtics have lost both KG and Game 1 of their series with Chicago. We'll see how things go.

The Rough Start

2009-04-16T14:00:00.000-07:00

OK. I know what you're thinking. "Here comes Jake to tell us everything's going to be alright, even though we're definitely screwed." Well, I am here to tell you everything's alright, that it's too early to panic, and the Red Sox just need to find some consistency. But I'd also be lying if I said the lackluster 3-6 start doesn't cause at least some level of trepidation for me.

Let's start with the good. Kevin Youkilis has been hot since Opening Day, slugging at a .722 clip with a couple bombs to boot. Jason Bay has been similarly solid, hitting .345 with an impressive 10 walks in nine games. For all the concern about Jason Varitek, he hit two homers in the Tampa series from the left side of the plate. As for the pitching, Brad Penny looked solid in his only start thus far, and Tim Wakefield's sterling complete game yesterday provided a reminder of what the old man can do with the knuckler is dancing (his new batterymate, George Kottaras, has also been impressive behind the plate and with the bat). Justin Masterson was terrific in the long relief role on Wednesday, and I feel confident whenever he's in the game. Two of the more unheralded members of the bullpen, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, have combined to throw ten scoreless innings to begin the season. And overall, the team defense has been sterling, living up to every preseason expectation.

So all that is really good. Unfortunately, the list of bad things is a bit longer.

There's no easy way to put this: David Ortiz looks lost at the plate. He got his first extra-base hit of the season yesterday. I'm sorry, but given his skill set in 2009, Ortiz is no good to the Red Sox or any team if he's only hitting singles (although maybe he's transforming since he did try, unsuccessfully, to steal a base last week). He just looks flat-out awful right now. It's not good. I'm not blaming this not having Manny hitting behind him; I just wonder if we've seen the best of David Ortiz. Knowing him, though, he could go on a tear the next few weeks and make all the naysayers look bad. I hope like hell that happens.

Dustin Pedroia (7-for-39, 1 RBI) and Jacoby Ellsbury (7-for-36, 2 R) are yet to get untracked. Given their youth and talent, I'm not worried about how they'll perform over the whole season. I'm a bit more concerned about the likes of Mike Lowell (8-for-35, 5 Ks) and J.D. Drew (7-for-30, 7 Ks) and how this season will treat them. To be fair, both have come up with some clutch hits and each have smashed two homers. But with their age and injury history...I just don't know.

Jed Lowrie started the year 1-for-18 before Terry Francona placed him on the DL with that chronic wrist injury. With Julio Lugo still on the shelf, Nick Green has actually filled in rather nicely. These journeyman types obviously love to be in the big leagues for any extended stay, and typically try as hard as possible to impress when given the chance. Still, I never thought I'd get to a point where I'm itching for Lugo to return.

People are whining about this team's offense, but I've been most concerned about the starting pitching. After wowing everyone on Opening Day, Josh Beckett was mediocre in his second start and the extra-circulars earned him a six-game suspension (totally ridiculous, by the way). It at least appears that Beckett is fully healthy following an '08 riddled with nagging injuries. Whether he can be consistent remains a question.

Jon Lester has struggled in both of his starts thus far. It strikes me as odd because he's got 11 Ks and just two walks in 11 innings, yet he's allowed 18 hits and three homers (he allowed 14 homers all of last year). So it's a good sign that he's still striking people out. My worry is that the load he shouldered last year could be catching up to him sooner than I expected.

I'm not sure I can bring myself to discuss what's happened to Dice-K. I'm completely stunned. Everyone wants to blame the WBC, but it's more than that. I almost don't want to know.

Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez have a combined ERA of 7.20 in 10 innings. Yikes. And what can we say about Jonathan Papelbon? He's been getting the job done, but at what cost? Does he really only have a 94 mph heater with no life? Is this really the same guy? Where's the deadly splitter? Christ, where's that average slider? Give us something, Paps! Meanwhile, Daniel Bard has nine strikeouts in six innings at Pawtucket so far. The Sox ought to cut bait on Lopez, bring up Bard and scare the piss out of Papelbon in the process. Then maybe he'll come to his senses and start throwing some frickin' splitters.

So what are the things I'm really worried about? Definitely Ortiz. He just doesn't look the same. I'll worry about Lester until he stops giving up so many hits. And I'm worried about Papelbon, in general. I'm not quite at that level yet for Drew or Lowell, or any of the eternally-fickle bullpen guys, but it could get there soon.

Otherwise, let's all just calm down. Four games against Baltimore, who's #2 starter is Koji Uehara, might be just what the Sox need. Perhaps they sweep the four games, and life will go back to being just wonderful.

Either way, in my opinion, it's too early to get too up or down about a team. We are exactly 1/18th of the way through the season. There's many more games to be play, transactions to be made, and fun to be had.

Before I go, take a look at the first thing I've written about baseball that I also got paid for: a game recap from an extra-inning affair between Pentucket and Triton. (Do me and everyone at the Daily News a favor and click on that link 1,000,000 times today, please?) It was great to get out there, hope it's warmer next time.

Take care and enjoy the spring. It's awesome to watch baseball every night again, isn't it?

2009 Boston Red Sox Preview

2009-04-05T18:17:00.001-07:00

Tomorrow is Opening Day, so tonight is the last chance I have to get out my 2009 Red Sox preview before we begin play. It appears tomorrow's tilt against the Rays at Fenway will likely be delayed with a 90 percent chance of rain for the afternoon in the Boston area. So we might have to wait until Tuesday for the season to really begin. In the meantime, I'll offer my thoughts for the season to come.

The 2008 Red Sox overcame so many obstacles to win 95 games during the season, and given the perils of clubhouse strife and injuries to so many key players, it's truly amazing that they actually came within one game of getting back to the World Series. The players were kept in check and on focus by Terry Francona, who with each passing year solidifies his status as perhaps the greatest manager in Red Sox history and one of the best managers/coaches in the history of the city along with Red Auerbach and Bill Belichick. I feel confident the Red Sox would have won the World Series had they gotten past the Rays in Game 7, and with a fully healthy team all along I'm positive they would have won it all. But that's not how it went down, and the team had a full winter to address how they'd get back to the Fall Classic in 2009.

Theo and Co. missed out on Mark Teixeira, who went to the Yankees instead. But they didn't panic by overpaying for the likes of Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn. They went out and signed several low-cost, high-reward veterans that primarily added to depth for their roster. Through some other shrewd moves, it appears the Red Sox have assembled their finest bullpen during the John Henry regime. The depth of their starting pitching isn't too far behind. While some have questions about their offense, if things break their way I can't imagine it will be much of a problem. And if the Sox pitching is as good as advertised, their offense won't need to be astronomical.

With that, let's dive right into a position-by-position breakdown of the 2009 Red Sox:

CATCHERS (2): Jason Varitek, George Kottaras.
It was cold winter of discontent for Varitek, his agent Scott Boras, and the Red Sox. Boras advised his client to turn down the Red Sox offer of salary arbitration, a decision that ultimately cost Varitek around $5 million this year. By displaying incredible arrogance in suggesting prospective employers use Jorge Posada's inane $52 million contract as a benchmark in negotiations, Varitek had no suitors besides the Red Sox, and Boston certainly wasn't going to bid against itself for a 36-year-0ld catcher with a .672 OPS in 2008. It's only because of Varitek's distinguished service in Boston the Red Sox were willing to guarantee $5 million with a $3 million player option for 2010 in this contract.

I wish we'd been able to pull off a reasonable trade for either of Texas' young duo of Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden or Arizona's Miguel Montero. It's still very possible that could happen even before this season ends, but I don't want to see the Red Sox give up Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden for a catcher the other team doesn't need. So Varitek was really our only option for 2009. I don't expect him, at 37, to improve on that .672 OPS because that's just not what happens to catchers at this age. He still knows how to handle a World Championship-caliber pitching staff, and his defense is good enough to get by. We'll just have to live with at least one more year of Tek weakly flailing at 95 mph heaters with men on base.

The backup situation became clear when the club somewhat surprisingly released Josh Bard, who'd come on a non-guaranteed contract and was expected to be Tim Wakefield's personal catcher. When Kottaras appeared to exhibit just as strong of a prowess at fielding the floaters, it was a simple question of economics; we don't care what we get offensively out of our backup catcher, so if they can both catch the knuckleball the same, do we go with the guy making $1.7 million or the guy making $400,000? A no-brainer, really. Kottaras still needs work with the bat, but since he's out of options and was once a highly-touted prospect, the Red Sox were smart to give him the job. Maybe we find out Kottaras is the Sox catcher of the future? It's possible.

INFIELDERS (7): Chris Carter, Nick Green, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis. DL: Julio Lugo.
Alex Cora departed for the Mets, and with Lowrie's emergence last year there wasn't much need to bring him back. The starting shortstop situation remains fluid, as it was the only job on the entire roster that wasn't entirely determined prior to spring training. Lugo needed to have his knee scoped following a promising start to his spring, so Lowrie will get most of the starts while Lugo works his way back. Should Lowrie get off to a hot start, it might be difficult for Lugo to crack the lineup. Journeyman Nick Green makes the Opening Day roster after spending all of last season in the minors.

Lowell is trying to come back following offseason hip surgery, and even though he's good to go for tomorrow he doesn't seem to be all the way back. It might just take a few weeks for him to really get comfortable in actual games. On the other side of the diamond, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia present the best all-around right side of the infield in baseball (I'd take them over Ryan Howard and Chase Utley because of Howard's low average and mediocre defense). Youkilis and Pedroia are both signed to team-friendly extensions that buy out some of their free agent years. They represent everything great about this era of Red Sox baseball: professional ballplayers who leave everything out there on the field and fans can never question their desire. These guys only want to do one thing when they're out there, and that's win. Perhaps 2008 will stand as their respective career years. But every Red Sox fan knows this team will be better for having them and I'm so happy Theo locked up two of my favorite players ever for years to come.

I once again lumped Ortiz into this group because this is just where he fits. He certainly saw his fair share of action at first base for the Dominican Republic WBC team. Papi claims his wrist issues are a thing of the past. I didn't watch many games during spring training, but in one game I saw Ortiz turn around a hard inside fastball and deposit it behind the right field wall at City of Palms Park. That's definitely a good sign for the wrist. Will he ever get back to his '06 form, when he set the club record for homers at 54? It's not likely. This will be his first full season without Manny Ramirez, and we'll know what kind of player the Red Sox have going forward based on his performance this year.

OUTFIELDER (4): Rocco Baldelli, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury. DL: Mark Kotsay.
Words can't describe how much I loved the Baldelli signing. I'd advocated the move as soon as Baldelli proved himself to still be a productive player during the postseason. He's learned to deal with his channelopathy and I'm confident he'll be healthy enough to contribute quite a bit to the 2009 Red Sox.

I'm predicting a huge year for Bay, who'll find the Green Monster to be the best friend he's ever had. The quiet, unassuming star will hit 6th and without the pressure of being "the guy," the road is wide open for Bay to go .300-30-100-90-10 and set himself up for a big payday somewhere after the season. We saw what Drew can do when healthy when he carried the team for a whole month in Ortiz's absence, and I'll continue to support him and hope he does well. I feel like there's this undercurrent in Red Sox Nation that somehow sadistically hopes that J.D. Drew fails, and that's not fair. Nobody works harder, plays harder or hustles more than Drew on this team, and I hope he plays a full season and finally gets the credit he deserves.

That brings us to Ellsbury. I think we all expected a little more based on his 2007 postseason performance, however unfairly based that expectation was. It's awesome to have such an exciting homegrown player make it in the Bigs. You'd have to go back to Ellis Burks to find a similar talent, and even he wasn't much of a threat to steal 50 like Jacoby. He no longer has Coco Crisp breathing down his neck, and center field belongs to him. At 25, Ellsbury still has room to grow and with time he can still become one of the game's best leadoff hitters.

STARTING PITCHERS (5): Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny. DL: John Smoltz.
Beckett's struggles last year are well-documented. He reverted back to his '06 tendency to rely heavily on his fastball and dealt with nagging injuries all season. A 4.03 ERA isn't what you expect from your ace, so look for Beckett to bounce back in a big way. This will be the most important year of his career, as he goes into the last guaranteed year of his contract and will likely be engaged in extension talks over the next year. How much the Red Sox are willing to commit to Beckett is mostly dependent on just how he bounces back.

2008 was Jon Lester's breakout season. He became the stopper, the guy they looked to during a losing streak to turn things around. It all began when Lester threw a no-hitter in May, and he just took off from there. All of his pitches were working all year, and he truly emerged as the ace into the postseason. I'm still not sure he's reached his potential at 25. Like Youkilis and Pedroia, Lester signed a very team-friendly extension that was the biggest ever for a pitcher with his small amount of service time. I'm worried about how he bounces back from throwing 236 innings last year, but in the short term that shouldn't be an issue. I look forward to Lester establishing himself as one of the best lefties in baseball in the next few seasons.

Next up is Dice-K, who's 2008 season provided as much of a statistical enigma as humanly imaginable. When someone has an 18-3 season with a 2.90 ERA, that'd seemingly be enough to warrant a Cy Young Award. But when he did it in only 167.2 innings with 94 walks, it changes the perception. Matsuzaka's looked great between his Japanse WBC dominance and his limited action in Red Sox spring training. It seems like he's ready to turn the corner and finally find himself in the American professional ranks. If these three guys do what they're supposed to do, I'll be shocked if the Red Sox don't win the World Series.

Tim Wakefield is back for his 15th season in a Boston uniform. I would hope the Sox brass will be willing to pull the plug on Wake if he struggles and Clay Buchholz continues to impress in Pawtucket as he did all spring in Florida. With things being so close in the AL East, they can't afford to wittingly lose games if they know they have someone better in the minors. Brad Penny will make his first start in April 12, and I'm ready for him to have a better season than A.J. Burnett so we can stick it to those Yankees fans. Come June, Smoltz will be ready and a potential postseason rotation of Beckett-Lester-Matsuzaka-Smoltz would almost guarantee rings for all involved. With Buchholz and Michael Bowden at Triple-A, I've never been less worried about a Boston rotation.

BULLPEN (7): Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Justin Masterson, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito.
There's no doubt this is the best bullpen that's been assembled in the history of the franchise. Jonathan Papelbon anchors a crew of professionals that have proven themselves at just about every level. Papelbon is coming off a decent season by his standards, and the price tag for him will continue to rise with each passing year. No Red Sox fans really want to hear this, but starting next offseason the team will have to look at the real possibility of trading their superstar closer as his price tag rises. I have no doubt the Red Sox do not want to pay a closer $15 million a season, which is likely what Papelbon will demand once he reaches his final year of arbitration and may look for an extension in that AAV neighborhood. It's just not good business to keep that guy and then let him go for nothing after six years. I'm not sure if you've heard of this kid Daniel Bard who throws 100 effortlessly. He'd make a good closer, for a lot cheaper. In the meantime, I look forward to another All-Star caliber season from Papelbon while he's still here.

We're innundated with great set-up men, which is such a good problem to have. Saito, who may end up being the ultimate bargain of the offseason, looks really solid and gives Boston a great, lights-out option. His countryman, Okajima, is ready for another great season. Masterson will be a full-time reliever for the first time, and I'm pumped to see what Rusty can do in a full year in the 'pen. Ramirez comes from KC, and he seems ready to step right into the role Mike Timlin played here for so many years. Delcarmen could find himself traded because the Sox have so many other solid guys. Lopez is the weak link, but Francona only needs him for one lefty at a time. This bullpen lacks a long man, but hopefully they won't need it.

It's late, so I'll wrap this up quickly. This is my 18th season following the Red Sox, and I've never been happier to be able to watch a team of professionals everyday as I am with this one. It's been a long, hard winter for the sport, with so many teams weary to improve themselves amidst the difficult economy. In the 1930s, baseball provided a way out, a healthy diversion from the tribulations of the most dreary times for our country. I hope baseball tries to market itself the same way over the next few months. Sure, baseball won't cure all that ails us (I'm not George Will, after all) but it's something to remind us about our past, and the good times we've all had with the game. I hope the Red Sox provide that for all of New England in 2009.

I'll be in attendance on Wednesday, which also happens to be my 23rd birthday.

Let's. Go. Sox.

2009 AL West Preview

2009-04-05T11:58:00.001-07:00

We're just a couple hours away from the start of the 2009 MLB season, with the World Champion Phillies set to take on Atlanta at Citizens Bank Park at 8 p.m. With that, let's head right into the last of my three AL preview posts, a look at the West Division.

LOS ANGELES - Manager: Mike Scioscia
The Angels were the only team in baseball to win 100 games in 2008, playing Mike Scioscia's game predicated on pitching, defense, fundamentals and the occasional pop. The mid-season acquisition of Mark Teixeira gave them that pop down the stretch, sporting a staggering 1.081 OPS in 54 games for the Halos. There was no doubt, going into October, that the best team in baseball was the Angels. But they shot themselves in their collective foot over and over during their ALDS bout with Boston, and lost in four games.

They couldn't keep Teixeira, who never really showed much interest in staying on the West Coast once the season was over. They refused to spend big bucks on Manny Ramirez, the middle-of-the-order presence they really needed once losing out on Tex. They let K-Rod go to the Mets, as well as waving goodbye to stalwart Garret Anderson and starter Jon Garland. They signed on the rejuvenated Brian Fuentes to close on a modest two-year pact. And once it became clear they could sign him on the cheap, they picked up Bobby Abreu for $5 million to provide some stability at the top of the order.

I said last year the Angels would really go for it in '08 know their group wouldn't stay together. Well, they ended up not losing as much as I expected, although after '09, Vlad Guerrero, John Lackey and Chone Figgins will all be free agents. So maybe this is the year they'll really need to push if they want to win with this group.

Unfortunately for them, I just don't see it. John Lackey and Ervin Santana are both dealing with elbow injuries with varying degrees of severity. Lackey should be OK to return with a month of rest, but Santana could be looking at Tommy John surgery if his elbow issue doesn't respond to rest and treatment by the end of April. Joe Saunders was excellent for most of last season, but is dealing with his own "dead arm" issues at the present time, and Jered Weaver seems to have come around from early-spring shoulder soreness. So when your only solid, healthy starter to begin a season is Dustin Moseley, well, that's not a good sign. In the bullpen, Fuentes should be alright but look for young Jose Arredondo to continuing developing as an excellent 8th-inning option for Scioscia.

I can't help but be slightly underwhelmed by their offense. Guerro is declining, and without him there's no significant power source in the lineup. It will be good to see the continuing offensive development of younger guys like Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales, who's been handed the first base job and looks ready. The outfield defense could be an adventure with Abreu, Guerrero and Juan Rivera sharing 2/3 of the duties everyday. The Angels will continue to have the most expensive fifth outfielder in baseball, with Gary Matthews set to earn $33.5 million over the next three years. Had Matthews been a free agent this past offeseason, I'd be interested to see if he could have done any better than the minor league deal Andruw Jones got from the Rangers.

Anyway, color me skeptical about this team's ability to be impressive in 2009. As you'll see through the rest of this preview, this year's AL West isn't very good, so I do expect the Angels to be in contention most of the year. Whether or not they have the goods to get into October once again is still a big question.

Prediction: 2nd place.

OAKLAND - Manager: Bob Geren
The A's went into rebuilding mode prior to last season, but hung around with the big boys all along and churned out a respectable 75 wins. Heading into the winter, GM Billy Beane set out to put together a contender for 2009, and made some surprising moves to make that happen.

Many in baseball expected the Rockies to trade Matt Holliday over the winter, but I'm not sure how many thought he'd get dealt to Oakland. Beane shipped deposed closer Huston Street, solid outfield prospect Carlos Gonzalez and young lefty Greg Smith to Colorado in exchange for the slugging left fielder. Should the A's find themselves out of contention during the summer, Beane could cut the chord and send Holliday out if he feels he can get more value than the two draft picks he'll get when Holliday signs with the Yankees or Red Sox next offseason.

Sure, Holliday can expect some regression in his numbers moving from Coors Field to a pitcher's park. But he hit .308, .301 and .280 on the road, respectively, in each of the last three seasons. He's still one of the game's best hitters, and the A's desperately needed some offense after finishing dead-last in the AL in runs, hits, batting average, slugging and OPS in 2008.

Beane didn't stop there. He brought back Jason Giambi, who will primarily play first base and can still provide some pop. After a prolonged negotiation, Orlando Cabrera was signed to be an upgrade over perennial disappointment Bobby Crosby. Beane coaxed Nomar Garciaparra out of a potential retirement to serve as the club's super-utility man. I definitely expect Nomar to see plenty of time at third base with Eric Chavez practically living on the DL the last few years. For Red Sox fans, there's a sense of irony seeing Cabrera and Garciaparra on the same team, both playing on small contracts, just four seasons after they were traded for each other in the most fateful trade in club history. I expect Nomar to get a HUGE ovation when he plays his first game in Fenway later this year.

Oakland's bullpen doesn't look quite as strong as it did earlier in spring training with the news that potential closer Joey Devine will visit Dr. James Andrews and has been put on the 60-day DL. Bob Geren will go with sidewinder Brad Ziegler at closer, who's coming off a fantastic rookie campaign that saw him begin his career with a record 39 consecutive scoreless innings. Santiago Casilla, Jerry Blevins, and new additions Russ Springer and Michael Wuertz should make up a solid crew.

They'll need to be solid, because one area where Beane failed to improve the A's was their tenuous starting rotation. Justin Duchscherer, who's pretty much always injured, will start 2009 injured. That leaves immortal names like Dana Eveland and Dallas Braden to top the rotation while highly-touted, electric-armed prospects Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill (who most agree need more time in the minors) will be thrown into the inferno immediately. Sean Gallagher, the main piece the A's got for Rich Harden last year, will start as the long man but should be back in the rotation soon.

Despite this, I'm picking the A's to win the West. I'm not sure I've ever picked a team to win its division with such a shoddy rotation, but this particular division looks like a total crapshoot. If they can get some consistency, and Cahill and Anderson find immediate success, the A's have a real shot. But those are big "ifs," no question.

Prediction: 1st place.

SEATTLE - Manager: Don Wakamatsu
A complete, unadulterated debacle. That's really the only way to describe the 2008 Mariners season. After a successful '07, and everyone riding their bandwagon during the spring, they came out and nothing went right. Injuries, ineffectiveness, bad personnel choices and more all happened in Seattle last year. On June 16, the M's finally put clueless GM Bill Bavasi out of their misery and three days later manager John McLaren was similarly shitcanned. Besides the typically-solid years from Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, Jose Lopez and Felix Hernandez, nobody performed up to expectations for Seattle. When the dust settled, they were the first team ever with a $100+ million payroll to finish a season with 100 losses.

Jack Zduriencik, a longtime scout with tremendous credentials, was hired as GM and one of his first moves was to hire Don Wakamatsu, a former Rangers and A's coach, to be the first Asian-American manager in MLB history. Zduriencik set out to rebuild the Mariners by focusing on defense. He shipped out overvalued closer JJ Putz and in return brought back outfielders Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez, both of whom are fantastic defenders that, when combined with Ichiro, should help their starters by cutting down hits and runs significantly.

On-base machine Russ Branyan will start at first base, and Ken Griffey, Jr. will return to Seattle for one last hurrah in front of the fans he wowed for so many years. The inept Kenji Johjima will remain behind the plate, but top prospect Jeff Clement is banging down the big league door.

As far as pitching goes, the Mariners need to hope Erik Bedard finds some health and can be solid behind Hernandez. They're stuck with Carlos Silva and his bloated contract for the next three seasons, but at least they'll be out from under Jarrod Washburn's slightly-less bloated deal after this season. He's certainly a prime candidate to be traded at the deadline for a team needing a lefty starter. When it was decided Brandon Morrow would be the team's closer, Ryan Rowland-Smith was inserted as the club's fifth starter.

The Mariners will not be good this year. But at least with new management, the club appears to be on the right track for their future. It may take a while, however, to fully recover from the old administration's myriad of mistakes.

Prediction: 4th place.

TEXAS - Manager: Ron Washington
People associated with the Rangers probably spent all winter touting their second-place finish in the AL West in 2008, and probably failed to mention they won 79 games and finished a robust 21 games behind the Angels. After a semi-quiet offseason, the Rangers appear to have assembled one of the game's best young offenses but a starting rotation that leaves a lot to be desired.

They dealt off catcher Gerald Laird, and he'll be replaced by the high-upside tandem of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (23) and Taylor Teagarden (25), provided one isn't traded to the Red Sox midseason. Chris Davis (23) hit 17 bombs in 295 at bats in 2008, and people are excited to see how the first basemen will do over the course of a full season. Ian Kinsler (26) has established himself as a premiere offensive second baseman and just needs to put together a full season to enter the conversation as one of the game's best all-around players.

Elvis Andrus (20) will start the season at shortstop, and the defensive whiz might steal 40 bags this year. The outfield will be made up by David Murphy (27), Nelson Cruz (28), and Josh Hamilton (27), the latter of which provided one of the best stories in sports last year. When complemented by veterans Hank Blalock and Michael Young, who has moved to third, it's scary to think just how good this offense will be.

It's equally scary to think of how bad their starting pitching staff will be. I remember being so bummed when the Red Sox were outbid for the services of Kevin Millwood following the 2005 season. Since then, Millwood has not had an ERA for a season lower than 4.52, while many Red Sox hurlers making quite bit less have done much better. The deal that sent John Danks to the White Sox for Brandon McCarthy looks worse and worse every year, and McCarthy will be back after a couple of seasons filled with injury. Kris Benson is back, and can contribute if he's healthy. Again, a huge "if." I'll be interested to see if Neftali Feliz, the young former Braves prospect who was informed by Jeff Locke that he'd been traded to the Rangers, or Derek Holland can make it to Arlington at some point this year.

Ron Washington's bullpen is surprisingly decent, with the chair-throwing Frank Francisco entering the year as closer. They've got good mix with CJ Wilson and Eddie Guardado setting up. They're going to need to be pretty terrific considering how potentially awful their starting rotation will be.

The saving grace for the Rangers is that they have the game's best farm system, according to Baseball America, so they can hope either guys like Holland and Feliz can contribute to their big league club or they can cash in some other prospects to acquire some help. They might be in a position, with all the other clubs in the West being such question marks, to surprise some people. Their starting pitching is holding them back in a big way.

Prediction: 3rd place.

2009 AL Central Preview

2009-03-29T20:44:00.000-07:00

Yeah, so I've been putting this off for a while. Hopefully within the next week, I'll have my AL West preview and Red Sox preview in addition to this one about how the AL Central will shake out. Just to forewarn you, don't hold your breath about any of that happening.

Before I begin, let me mention one aspect of this particular discussion that will run throughout each of these five team previews: the economy figures to hit these teams, all located in America's heartland, pretty badly during the season. Whatever I say about these teams now could change drastically once the season starts and people stop showing up for games, or if slashes in season ticket numbers begin to take their effect. It's a sad reality of our times that even if a team is successful in 2009, their owners could step in and dismantle expensive teams for their own financial good.

Let's head right into it:

CHICAGO - Manager: Ozzie Guillen
I didn't expect very much from the White Sox last year, yet they were a consistent contender in the inconsistent AL Central and forced a one-game playoff for the division crown with the Minnesota Twins. After taking that game, they lost in four to the Rays and made me look like an idiot as a result. Coming off an 89-win season, I'm not really sure what to expect on the South Side for Ozzie Guillen's boys.

GM Kenny Williams didn't make a big splash this offseason, dealing off Nick Swisher for practically nothing after just one season with the White Sox. He also traded Javier Vazquez for practically nothing. And he also let free agents Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrera and Juan Uribe go, and just got the A's 2nd round pick this year out of that.

Williams and Guillen have elected to go younger, finally handing third base to Josh Fields and second base to the out-of-nowhere Chris Getz. Instead of sticking with Uribe or Cabrera, they'll go with Alexei Ramirez (who may or may not actually be 27) at short. Gavin Floyd and John Danks, both coming off excellent seasons, will be expected to shoulder much of the load behind the reliable Mark Buehrle.

Ramirez was one of the biggest surprises in baseball last year, hitting .290 with 21 homers while seeing time at second, short and outfield in his first season of American professional play. His OBP was only .317 last year, which tells me he got lucky with many of his hits. He had only 18 walks in 480 ABs, so expect a regression in his overall numbers.

I'm also very interested to see how Carlos Quentin performs in 2009. You may recall Quentin was on his way to an MVP season when, during the first week of September with his club in a heated pennant race, Quentin smacked the top of his bat in frustration and broke his wrist, missing the remainder of season. His final line of .288/.394/.571 with 36 homers was still good enough to finish 5th in the MVP balloting, and at only 26 it's very possible he could improve even further.

If only Quentin could play center. The middle of the White Sox outfield is a giant black hole, with Brian Anderson, DeWayne Wise and Jerry Owens all so embarrassingly ineffective this spring that Ozzie just can't help himself in publicly disparaging all of them. Williams doesn't want to trade for Juan Pierre (who would?) but at some point this will have to be addressed via trade if the White Sox want to go back to October.

Otherwise, this team is made up of guys who are just getting old, like the Yankees but with a bit more upside. Warhorses like Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski will be trotted out again, and they'll probably post numbers that will decline slightly from the year before. All this makes the White Sox a relatively boring team. My gut feeling is that they don't have enough pitching (looks like Bartolo Colon will be their fifth starter) and definitely not enough in their minor league system to get them through a season. Of course, my gut told me the White Sox would beat Tampa in the ALDS. So what do I know?

Prediction: 3rd place.

CLEVELAND - Manager: Eric Wedge
It's hard to put into words just how weird of a season the Indians had in 2008. I fully expected them to remain one of the three best teams in baseball after nearly going to the World Series in 2007, mostly because they changed very little. Instead, not one pitcher on their entire staff had a good year besides Cliff Lee, who just happened to be the best in the AL. Their offense and defense were both extremely mediocre, with almost everyone regressing from their 2007 performances. In the end, the Tribe were a .500 team and never could figure out what went wrong.

The club, in the midst of a bad economy deeply hurting their outlying region, went out to make some improvements without breaking the bank. GM Mark Shapiro traded three marginal prospects to bring in the versatile and reliable Mark DeRosa to man third, and signed Kerry Wood to be their closer for the next two years at $20.5 million. They were part of the mega-deal that sent J.J. Putz to the Mets, picking up talented reliever Joe Smith by sending outfielder Franklin Gutierrez to the Mariners. Admittedly, Gutierrez has a high ceiling, but with Ben Francisco's emergence and needs to address in the bullpen, Smith could pay huge dividends this year.

In the low-risk free agent market, the Indians snagged Carl Pavano at $1.5 million. While he'll always be the subject of scorn for stealing $40 million from the Yankees for nine wins, Pavano's had great stuff since being traded for Pedro Martinez and at that cost he will be worth a look.

Cleveland's 2009 lineup is full of wildcards. Travis Hafner appears to be toast, and Victor Martinez was so bad that Kelly Shoppach might be their #1 catcher in reality. Ryan Garko and Asdrubal Cabrera were hugely disappointing given some high expectations going into '08. The only bright spots were the indispensable Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta, who appears to have finally come into his own offensively (this might be the last year he appears regularly at shortstop, though). Much of the Indians' '09 success will depend on whether last year's inconsistent performers can find some consistency (and health).

As I mentioned up top, Lee enjoyed one of baseball's all-time "What the fuck?" seasons by winning an astonishing 22 games with a 2.54 ERA in 223 1/3 innings and ran away with the AL Cy Young Award. It would be even more astonishing if Lee were to have a 2009 with similar success, just one season removed from having a 6.29 ERA in less than 100 IP. He's undoubtedly their ace, and Eric Wedge will hope Fausto Carmona can somehow regain his '07 form and find that devastating 98 mph sinker. I'm also looking forward to seeing St. Louis castoff Anthony Reyes over a full season after a strong six-start stint last year with the Indians.

Some help could be on the way if the regulars struggle. Matt LaPorta, the main chip that came in the CC Sabathia trade last spring, could find his way into the Indians' outfield as a new power source for Wedge. The Tribe also stole prized catcher prospect Carlos Santana away from the Dodgers for Casey Blake at the deadline, and he could see some time with the big club, too.

It will all come down to consistency in Cleveland. If not, Shapiro will probably be a busy man during the middle months of the 2009 season.

Prediction: 2nd place.

DETROIT - Manager: Jim Leyland
No matter how disappointing the Indians were in 2008, the most disappointing of all teams last year was the Detroit Tigers. After trading for Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria, Detroit's pitching staff was beyond awful and their hyped offense never really showed up. Without any major additions over the winter, it's very possible the Tigers will just as bad and come in last place again.

Defensively, this team should be a lot better. GM Dave Dombrowski let Renteria go and replaced him with defensive whiz Adam Everett at shortstop. Brandon Inge will return to third base and the selfless Carlos Guillen moves to left field. While Pudge Rodriguez might be one of the best defensive catchers in history, he's certainly lost his touch, and trading for Gerald Laird was a terrific all-around move.

The Tigers will need the help defensively because I'll be shocked if this club improves on its 4.91 team ERA based solely on better performances by the staff. I trust that Justin Verlander's struggles for much of 2008 won't carry over into this year. Guys with his talent just don't get worse at age 27. Unfortunately for the Tigers, he's probably going to be their only above-average pitcher. Expect a regression from Armando Galarraga off his 3.73 ERA rookie season. Jeremy Bonderman is essentially a lost cause, and no one's sure if Rays acquisition Edwin Jackson will be any good this year.

The decision a couple years ago to give extensions to lefty starters Willis and Nate Robertson has proven to be awful for the organization. Robertson managed a 6.35 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP last year while Willis has lost the ability to pitch. Combined, Robertson and Willis are owed $39 million over the next two years and they can't give those guys away. It's hamstrung their ability to address serious needs in the bullpen, where it appears Brandon Lyon will close despite being terrible this spring (he gave up four straight home runs in a Grapefruit League game against Boston). Joel Zumaya might never live up to his potential, and Fernando Rodney can't find consistency. The other members of Detroit's bullpen aren't even worthy of mention here.

There are some bright spots for Detroit, despite the gloom of my post thus far. Cabrera was excellent last year, blasting 37 homers and coming into his own at first base. At 26, he should continue to develop as one of the game's best offensive players. Curtis Granderson overcame a hand injury and contributed a great all-around season and should also continue his ascent. And 20-year-old Rick Porcello, who's never pitched above Hi-A, may have won himself a rotation spot this spring. The Tigers have to be super-careful to ensure they don't screw with this kid, who's been compared to Josh Beckett since he was 15. I'd be very excited to see someone that young come up and dominate, though.

Here's the 1,000-pound gorilla in the room with the Tigers: it's possible this franchise will lose the most money of all teams potentially affected by the bad economy. It's no secret the Detroit area is in rough shape, and the Tigers have reportedly seen a drop in season ticket sales from 27,000 to 15,000 this winter. It's been hypothesized that Dombrowski will be selling off their best players should the team stumble out of the gate, and that even had Bill Simmons dreaming on a recent podcast of seeing Cabrera in a Red Sox uniform. What everyone is forgetting is that Mike Ilitch, who owns both the Tigers and Red Wings, is filthy rich. If needed, I'm sure he'll tap into his reserves to make sure the Tigers don't have to trade away their most valuable pieces. The one guy I could definitely see them moving is Magglio Ordonez, who will be owed $18 million in 2009 if he plays a full season this year.

The economy aside, the Tigers will struggle in 2009. For all their promise after going to the World Series in 2006, Dombrowski has done a poor job keeping the contender together. Jim Leyland has no contract for 2010, and if the Tigers falter, he's likely to be gone before the season ends.

Prediction: 5th place.

KANSAS CITY - Manager: Trey Hillman
For the first time ever I'll be writing more than three paragraphs about the Kansas City Royals and their upcoming season! I don't think any Royals fans read my blog, but in case they do I assume they will be happy. The Royals are being hyped as this year's Rays, and while I expect them to get out of the cellar and perhaps even finish above .500, I don't think they'll be ready to punch their tickets for October just yet.

The Royals avoided last place for the first time since 2003 based primarily on some balanced offense, decent defense, solid starting pitching by Gil Meche and Zack Greinke, and Joakim Soria developing into a premier closer (42 saves, 1.60 ERA, 66/19 K/BB in 67 IP). Trey Hillman worked to get the best performances possible out of those three pitchers, and I fully expect them to be just as effective this year.

To shore up their outfield defense, GM Dayton Moore shipped reliever Ramon Ramirez to the Red Sox for Coco Crisp. It simply never worked out in Boston for Crisp, and I hope that in getting a chance to play everyday he can return to his 2005 Indians numbers. Also new this year will be Mike Jacobs (funny considering my high school homeroom teacher and fantasy colleague is also named Mike Jacobs, and he's a huge Royals fan. Maybe he reads my blog. Hope the wife and kids are well, Mike!), who has never had a good OBP but at least provides some legit 30 homer pop. For the bullpen, Moore brought in Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz to set up in front of Soria.

I'm ready for my man-crush Alex Gordon to finally break out. He made improvements in OPS and average, meaning that at 25 years old it's just about time for Gordon to become the can't-miss superstar he was at Nebraska. Elsewhere Mike Aviles hit .325 in 419 ABs to earn himself a starting gig at shortstop this time around. One of my old fantasy favorites, Mark Teahen, has been relegated to a super utility role that's included an experiment at second base this spring producing mixed results.

I think part of the hype behind the Royals this year has to do with the strong potential of their starting rotation. Sure, Horacio Ramirez sucks but Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister and former #1 overall pick Luke Hochevar should be able to fill the the gaps. Should the Royals really be in it come June or July, they've got plenty of chips in their farm system to trade so they could add a starter.

I just like this team. They've got a good mix and with some smart personnel choices, these Royals have the right manager and GM to field a competitive team shortly. Imagine a 2010 ALCS between the Rays and Royals. Hey, it's possible.

Prediction: 4th place.

MINNESOTA - Manager: Ron Gardenhire
I just wonder how the Twins do it. They trade away the best pitcher in the world for 25 cents on the dollar and still come within one game of making the postseason, while the team to which they traded that pitcher experienced the exact same fate in 2008. Expectations were low in Minnesota after losing Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, but Ron Gardenhire's scrappy crew scratched out 88 wins and would have been a difficult match in the playoffs for any of the other three teams.

The Twins dabbled in many areas of the free agent and trade markets this past winter, but wound up adding only Joe Crede for $2.5 million. Crede's chronic back injury is well-documented, but Minnesota had nothing to lose by adding him because they would have likely gone with Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris at the hot corner if not for Crede. If it turns out Crede is fine, it could be one of the winter's better signings.

Otherwise, things are essentially the same for the Twins, and that's a good thing. A fully healthy Francisco Liriano will be their ace, and I want so badly for him to succeed and realize his potential. He will make people forget about Santana in a hurry. Scott Baker finally broke out in 2008, and along with Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, the Twins have one of the AL's most unheralded but surprisingly solid rotations. All of those guys are homegrown besides Liriano, who came over in a trade as a prospect. That's just how the Twins do things. Joe Nathan remains one guy I'd hate to face if my team was down in the 9th inning and Jesse Crain is almost as intimidating.

Minnesota sports two of the game's brightest stars, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Mauer continues to put up historic offense numbers for a catcher, winning his second batting title last year while managing an ever-changing cast of characters in the pitching staff. Mauer's back flared up this spring, and he could miss all of April as a result. Regardless, I'm excited for when the Red Sox sign him after the 2010 season. As for Morneau, he also had another MVP-caliber year in 2008, and the quiet star will continue to be an awesome presence for the Twins.

The most interesting situation for this team lies in the vast outfield expanse of the Metrodome. Mike Cuddyer is firmly entrenched in right field, with the defense and speed of Carlos Gomez and Denard Span nailing down starting spots in center and left, respectively. With Jason Kubel expected to be the full-time DH following a wonderful 2008, that leaves out one person: Delmon Young, the same guy I said might one day find his way to Cooperstown. Young just hasn't performed up to his abilities thus far in the Majors, and it doesn't appear the Twins have much use for him. He's responded with a good spring, and it might be tough for Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup. Either way, he'd make excellent trade bait should the Twins need an extra piece during the season.

Maybe the Twins will struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness through May. But they'll fight, they'll scratch, they'll claw...and make it into October once again in 2009. They just always find a way.

Prediction: 1st place.

2009 AL East Preview

2009-03-01T16:57:00.000-08:00

I've been putting this off for too long, so let's hop into my annual AL preview series. I will begin, as always, with the AL East, save the Red Sox, whom I'll wait to preview until the end of March.

BALTIMORE - Manager: Dave Tremblay

In Dave Tremblay's first full season at the helm in Baltimore, the O's finished with the exact same number of losses (93) they had earned in 2008. The rebuilding moves made by new team president Andy MacPhail promised an 11th-straight losing season for the once-proud franchise. I lauded all of MacPhail's choices last winter, but like many teams, the O's had a pretty quiet offseason this time around and I highly doubt Baltimore will make it out of the cellar in '09.

They landed 33-year-old Japanese hurler Koji Uehara on a two-year pact, and given the makeup of their current staff, he could become their ace. In separate deals, the Orioles took two out-of-options former prospects off the hands of the Chicago Cubs in Rich Hill and Felix Pie. They also brought in utility men Ty Wigginton and Ryan Freel, and signed their two best players, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts, to long-term extensions.

Signing Pie will allow Tremblay to use righty-mashing Luke Scott at DH and sport one of the game's fastest outfields with Pie, Markakis and up-and-comer Adam Jones (and they don't lose much if Freel is healthy). With such a mediocre pitching staff, this outfield should help cut down on hits and runs and may result in a couple more wins.

Freel came from the Reds in a move that saw catcher Ramon Hernandez relocate to Cincinnati. This helps Baltimore on two fronts: it saves them significant money, and hastens the rise of top 2007 draft choice Matt Wieters. In his first minor league season, Wieters posted a 1.054 OPS with 27 dingers between Hi-A and AA. Scouts have been going ga-ga over Wieters for years now, and it looks like he'll get his shot at some point this spring. Wieters probably won't see the majors until late May in an effort to delay his arbitration clock. Until then, free agent signee Gregg Zaun will be behind the plate, and then will likely serve as Wieters' mentor thereafter. Just like everyone else, I'm excited to see what Wieters can accomplish at the Major League level.

But otherwise, O's fans have little to look forward to. When your ace, Jeremy Guthrie, only wins 10 games in '08, and your closer, George Sherrill, can only muster a season ERA of 4.73, that tells you all you need to know about the quality of the pitching staff. Look for MacPhail to unload the contracts of Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora during the season. The bad economy will probably whack the Orioles pretty severely, but they have nowhere to go but up. Well, at least not this year.

PREDICTION: 5th place.

NEW YORK - Manager: Joe Girardi

So what was the Yankees' reaction to missing the playoffs for the first time in almost 15 years? Just spend almost a half billion dollars on free agents when every other MLB team is wondering where the hell their money went. With a new stadium opening in the Bronx, the Bombers made a huge splash to try and get back into the postseason once again. My reaction? Meh.

No doubt bringing in Mark Teixeira was an excellent move, easily the best personnel decision made by the Yankees' front office in a half dozen years. In Tex they get an easy-going superstar who will anchor first base for them for the next eight years. For CC Sabathia, the Yankees only outbid their nearest competitors by about $50 million and Sabathia would have been an idiot to turn it down. How he handles the spotlight and the level of expectations for being the highest-paid pitcher ever will determine his success. Oh, and that whole thing about him being a stunt-double for the Goodyear Blimp.

And A.J. Burnett? Well, it has potential to be the worst of all the Yankees' bad pitcher contracts over the years. Brad Penny is a far superior pitcher, in my opinion, and the Red Sox got him for $77 million less. I'm positive Penny will have a better year. Hell, I think Phil Hughes will have a better year, and be better over the course of Burnett's contract, wherever Hughes may pitch.

Before having Teixeira fall into their lap, the Yankees had traded peanuts to get Nick Swisher from the White Sox to play first base. (Don't ever try to tell me that wasn't the original plan. With all the outfielders they already had, and with Giambi gone, they would never have traded for Swisher if they thought they would get Teixeira. Don't tell me otherwise, because it's a lie). Andy Pettitte also returns for another go-round with Mike Mussina retiring and Chein-Ming Wang returning from his 2008 foot injury.

How anyone can say this Yankees' team will leapfrog Boston and Tampa to reclaim the division is preposterous. They might be the worst defensive team in baseball when this season is complete. Teixeira is the team's only above-average defender anywhere on the field. The Yankees might be completely screwed with Jorge Posada coming off major shoulder surgery, and if they find out in mid-March he can no longer catch, it will make the Yankee clusterfuck of DHs even wider. Derek Jeter has no business playing shortstop everyday in the Major Leagues anymore, but no one would ever tell him that. Johnny Damon can't play center anymore, Hideki Matsui can't play the field period, and Swisher, Melky Cabrera and Xavier Nady aren't anything special either. They may be forced to start Brett Gardner on occasion in center just to give the pitchers some kind of help.

I also love how everyone expects Joba Chamberlain to all the sudden step up and be an ace pitcher. Look, the guy's got amazing stuff. But for Joe Girardi to say the guy will make 30 starts this year is ludicrous. He has still never thrown more than 119 innings in one season since high school, so why would anyone think he's suddenly going to find good health now? And what about their bullpen? If Mariano Rivera goes down, who closes? Damaso Marte? Edwar Ramirez? Yikes. Then do they jerk Chamberlain back to the bullpen? Who knows.

All I'm saying is that the Yankees are far, FAR from a sure thing this time around. The pressure and expectations have never been higher as they move into New Yankee Stadium. But the Yankees have never learned, and it doesn't appear they every will learn, that teams have to be built and not bought. If they don't get back to the playoffs, Girardi's second season in New York could also be his last.

PREDICTION: 3rd place.

TAMPA BAY - Manager: Joe Maddon

In my preview last year, I wrote that I believed "the Rays will be a fun team to watch in 2008 and may surprise some people" while still picking them to come in 4th place. Well, I was right that they were fun team and that they'd surprise some people, but their rise to the AL East division crown and eventually the World Series was something I never could have predicted would come this fast. As defending AL Champs, the Rays have a target on their backs and the hangover from such a successful year has typically not been kind to teams of their ilk recently.

The Rays bring back essentially the same team in 2009 with a couple notable exceptions. Their biggest move was signing free agent slugger Pat Burrell to a modest two-year deal. He will serve as their primary DH and provide pop behind Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton. The Rays also dealt Edwin Jackson for outfielder Matt Joyce to shore up right field, and signed some relief help in Brian Shouse, Joe Nelson and Jason Isringhausen.

The young starting rotation for Tampa remains potentially either its greatest strength or biggest question mark. James Shields (the grandpa of the group at age 27) remains their most solid, dependable contributor no matter how undeserved the nickname "Big Game James" might still be. Former #1 overall pick David Price should be penciled in as their #5 starter, and could very well be their #1 starter when it's all said and done. In between those two will be the electric Scott Kazmir, the explosive Matt Garza, and the dependable Andy Sonnanstine. I feel like perhaps the Rays caught lightning in a bottle last year with how well all their young starters performed. It might be too much to ask to have so many young guys perform at that level once again. I would also assume Dan Wheeler will close if Troy Percival is hurt, but the Rays do have other quality options in J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.

Tampa will continue to have one of the most dynamic offenses in the game. They are well-balanced with speedsters Akinori "Evil-mura" Iwamura and Carl Crawford atop the order, mashers Upton, Pena, Longoria and Burrell and solid contributors Joyce, Dioner Navarro, and 2008 team MVP Jason Bartlett rounding it out. They can literally do it all. Also, this team has no discernible weakness on defense, which helped propel them deep into last year's postseason.

What's even scarier about the Rays is what they have on the way. They got to the World Series the same year they made high school shortstop phenom Tim Beckham the #1 overall pick in the draft, and they have fireballers Jake McGee and Wade Davis banging on the doors of the Trop. The depth of their talent means this franchise is definitely here to stay.

Given the bad blood existing between the Red Sox and Rays (even though two principles, Coco Crisp and Jonny Gomes, are gone from the picture), and the intensity of last year's ALCS, I very much look forward to what 2009 will bring to their new rivalry. I'll be in attendance on my birthday when they play the second game of a three-game set to open Fenway Park. I also look forward to many years of great games between these two franchises. I have a feeling 2008 will not be the last time Boston and Tampa meet for the right to play in the World Series.

Like I mentioned above, however, I think the Red Sox will be better in 2009 as the young Rays deal with their success.

PREDICTION: 2nd place.

TORONTO - Manager: Cito Gaston

Because I hate the Blue Jays, and don't expect them to be any good this year, I'll keep this brief. The Jays did just about nothing in the offseason in improve themselves. They ought to trade Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells to rid themselves of payroll, but J.P Riccardi's head is so far up his own ass there's no way that will happen. I think Travis Snider will be a great power hitter, and should get a chance to grow at the Major League level. Otherwise, the high point of the Jays' season this year will probably come whenever they take the season series from the Red Sox, which they will inevitably do.

PREDICTION: 4th place.

A Closer Look: My First Draft of 2009, Rounds 11-21

2009-02-21T09:29:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the delay with this post but you know how it is during the week. I also appear to have completely spaced on my annual AL preview, maybe I'll get to it tomorrow if I have the motivation. Anyway, we left off last time after I'd snatched up what I believe to have been my best value pick, Hunter Pence, in the 10th round. With my offense mostly complete, I now needed to look into finding some value for my pitching staff.

Round 11
121. Ryan Dempster
122. Jonathan Broxton
123. Andre Ethier
124. Zack Greinke
125. B.J. Ryan
126. Matt Capps
127. Matt Cain
128. Brian Fuentes
129. Justin Verlander
130. Francisco Cordero
131. David Price
132. Kerry Wood

I began my own little run on closers here in this round. Broxton is locked into closer's role in L.A. and while he's certainly had his control issues, I love the fact that Rotoworld has him getting 91 Ks in 75 innings this year with a solid 31 saves. Of course, saves are a very volatile category and someone like Broxton could earn much more or much fewer saves than that regardless of what he does in the ratios. Anyway, he'll be closing for a good team and I can't complain if he lives up to his potential.

Round 12
133. Brad Hawpe
134. Adam Wainwright
135. Jorge Cantu
136. Rick Nolasco
137. Huston Street
138. Heath Bell
139. Mike Lowell
140. Frank Francisco
141. Raul Ibanez
142. Matt Garza
143. Chris Iannetta
144. Aubrey Huff

I was pretty pissed to see Garza go off the board just before my pick. I've been taking him in all my mock drafts because I think he's being undervalued. He's a strikeout pitcher playing on an excellent team and he appears to have moved past his Minnesota growing pains. Anyway, with this pick my starting offense is now complete. I sometimes like taking a catcher early, usually Martin or Mauer, but I elected to wait this time. Iannetta should get most of the playing time in Colorado and given the thin air he could drop over 20 bombs. This should be the last year Iannetta will be drafted outside the first 10 rounds. I certainly think he's a safer 2009 bet than Matt Wieters at this point.

Round 13
145. Milton Bradley
146. Trevor Hoffman
147. Jayson Werth
148. Conor Jackson
149. Mike Gonzalez
150. Brian Wilson
151. Torii Hunter
152. Carlos Delgado
153. Chris Young
154. Derek Lowe
155. Jorge Posada
156. Brandon Morrow

OK, I definitely don't love this pick. The all-time saves king isn't even close to what he used to be, and the Brewers will have to limit his innings throughout the year. But with almost every other #2 closer option off the board, Hoffman was actually the safest of them all. If you look at the other closers taken in this round, Gonzalez has had health issues and Wilson had a HUGE ERA last year. I'm also not sure if Morrow will start or close for the M's. Either way, Hoffman made the most sense for my purposes here. At this point I'm starting to get a little worried because I've only got two starting pitchers on my roster 13 rounds in. I've got my work cut out for me going forward.

Round 14
157. Patt Burrell
158. Brett Myers
159. Johnny Cueto
160. Aaron Harang
161. Chad Qualls
162. Adrian Beltre
163. Erik Bedard
164. Ben Sheets
165. George Sherrill
166. Ted Lilly
167. John Danks
168. Xavier Nady

I'd probably have taken Lilly if he didn't go right in front of me. There's been some mixed opinions on Danks this winter, but Rotoworld thinks enough of him to rank him 27th overall for starting pitchers. He's always had great stuff, and didn't get hurt last year, so I have every expectation he'll maintain his standing as the ChiSox's #2 hurler. And because I've waited so long at this point to draft starting pitching, I really can't complain about snagging Danks at this spot.

Round 15
169. Brad Ziegler
170. Matt Lindstrom
171. Shin-Soo Choo
172. Chien-Ming Wang
173. Nelson Cruz
174. Joey Devine
175. Justin Upton
176. Max Scherzer
177. Joel Hanrahan
178. Gavin Floyd
179. Josh Johnson
180. Jered Weaver

Matt Lindstrom is no Jonathan Papelbon. But he's got no other competition for saves in Florida, so I can hope has an efficient year at the very least. I've now managed to complete my bullpen. I never draft more than three closers for a team just because I believe in maintaining advantages in wins and K's are much easier to control than ratios.

Round 16
181. Jair Jurrens
182. Fernando Rodney
183. Mark DeRosa
184. Troy Percival
185. A.J. Pierzynski
186. Clayton Kershaw
187. Cameron Maybin
188. John Maine
189. Placido Polanco
190. Kevin Slowey
191. Scott Baker
192. Troy Glaus

I don't remember which year it was, it may have been 2006, when I thought Scott Baker was the sleeper of the year. I drafted him on every team and expected huge things. Well, he sucked. And he sucked all the time until last year, when he finally hit some of his potential. He won't run up huge numbers, but he's definitely a strong #4 starter for a mixed league fantasy squad. I've now rounded out my entire starting team. I'll begin now to look for some bargains for my bench.

Round 17
193. Mike Pelfrey
194. Alex Gordon
195. Randy Winn
196. Hideki Matsui
197. Edwin Encarnacion
198. Justin Duchscherer
199. Randy Johnson
200. Carlos Guillen
201. Lastings Milledge
202. Chris B. Young
203. Miguel Tejada
204. Fausto Carmona

I've had an unhealthy man-crush on Gordon since his days at Nebraska. He hasn't lived up to his young superstar billing just yet, but maybe at 25 this will be the year. If he does finally break out, he's a contributor in every category. Plus, he's a great guy for much bench considering Chipper Jones' penchant for getting hurt. I feel extremely confident in my corner infield situation given the apprehensive nature of both my Jones and Youkilis selections.

Round 18
205. Ryan Theroit
206. James Loney
207. Dioner Navarro
208. Kelly Johnson
209. Chris Carpenter
210. Adam Jones
211. Jim Thome
212. Travis Hafner
213. Joe Saunders
214. Adam LaRoche
215. Mark Buehrle
216. Mike Napoli

Buehrle doesn't give you a ton in fantasy. However, at this spot in the draft I think he's a solid option. He won't strike out many people, but he goes deep into games, gets a lot of decisions, and as long as his ratios don't inflate too much, I don't mind grabbing him here. The purpose of these later rounds as far as starting pitchers go is to either draft for upside or draft for solid contributors. Buehrle, who's thrown at least 200 innings each of the last eight seasons, qualifies as the latter. Also, note the selection of Adam Jones at pick #210. I'll be discussing that shortly.

Round 19
217. Oliver Perez
218. Rickie Weeks
219. David DeJesus
220. Melvin Mora
221. Chris Perez
222. Elvis Andrus
223. Alexi Casilla
224. Jeff Francoeur
225. Denard Span
226. Tim Hudson
227. Rick Ankiel
228. Willy Taveras

Weeks has spent a lot of time on the DL over the last few years. Otherwise, I'd like to think he could be a top-5 fantasy second baseman. He gives me steals off the bench and he's got some pop in his bat, too. Should something happen to Phillips, I'd feel confident running Weeks out there for and extended period. I have to hope he's put his injury woes behind him for now. I'd been taking Andrus frequently as my backup MI, but Weeks is a better player now and I'm less worried about SS (Hanley) than I am about 2B (Phillips).

Round 20
229. Jose Guillen
230. Kazuo Matsui
231. Ryan Garko
232. Khalil Greene
233. Armando Galarraga
234. Gil Meche
235. Juan Pierre
236. Hank Blalock
237. Yadier Molina
238. Taylor Teagarden
239. J.D. Drew
240. Akinori Iwamura

I'm well aware of how Drew tends to hit the DL from time to time. Well aware. But I needed an outfielder, and when he is healthy and locked in, look out. This is where that earlier Adam Jones pick comes in. The owner who drafted Jones inexplicably decided to dump him as soon as add/drops were available. I'd taken Jones as early as 17th round in one of my mocks, so I decided to throw in a waiver claim to add Jones and drop Drew. I won't know the outcome until tomorrow. Jones has miles of upside and will likely be a 20/20 guy as soon as this year. That's a pick I like more than Drew. But if I get stuck with J.D. I'll be fine. If he gets hurt there's plenty of other outfielders.

Round 21
241. Grant Balfour
242. Ubaldo Jimenez
243. Chris Volstad
244. Phil Hughes
245. Gary Sheffield
246. John Smoltz
247. Jeff Clement
248. Aaron Hill
249. Nick Swisher
250. Kevin Gregg
251. Elijah Dukes
252. Mike Cameron

If Buehrle represented a safe late-round pick, taking Jimenez here was the risky pick with upside. I don't know exactly what to expect considering he's young, wild, and pitches in Colorado, but strikes guys out left and right and if he sucks I'll just get someone else. As my last pick, it's not like I'm really attached to him. With that, my team is complete. Take a look (with Rotoworld projections and round taken in parentheses):

Yahoo 34148 - 2/15		AVE	HR	RBI	R	SB
C	Chris Ianetta (12)	0.263	16	68	63	1
1B	Kevin Youkilis (5)	0.288	21	99	97	3
2B	Brandon Phillips (3)	0.281	25	92	91	27
3B	Chipper Jones (7)	0.318	23	81	84	3
SS	Hanley Ramirez (1)	0.314	30	83	114	37
OF	Carlos Beltran (2)	0.277	28	106	104	22
OF	Nick Markakis (4)	0.308	26	100	106	12
OF	Hunter Pence (10)	0.280	28	99	81	14
UT	Carlos Pena (9)	0.252	32	108	93	2
BN	Alex Gordon (17)	0.272	22	77	72	10
BN	Rickie Weeks (19)	0.261	17	51	93	23
BN	JD Drew (20)	0.286	17	73	82	3
		W	ERA	WHIP	K	SV
SP	Chad Billingsley (6)	15	3.43	1.28	200	0
SP	Ervin Santana (8)	14	3.73	1.22	188	0
RP	Jonathon Broxton (11)	4	2.88	1.13	91	31
RP	Trevor Hoffman (13)	2	3.57	1.15	44	32
P	John Danks (14)	13	3.53	1.24	160	0
P	Scott Baker (16)	13	3.83	1.26	159	0
P	Matt Lindstrom (15)	3	3.36	1.30	63	29
BN	Mark Buehrle (18)	15	3.92	1.30	122	0
BN	Ubaldo Jimenez (21)	12	4.14	1.37	168	0

Overall I'm really pleased with this team. Often times, my decision to overlook pitching early hurts me in the ratio categories, and I expect this year will probably be no different. However, I really, really like my balanced offense and I don't see how I'm lower than 3rd in the league in all five categories. Every player on my team has at least 20 homer power. My top two starters should improve from last year. My closers are solid and provide value based on where I took them. I expect my forumla to lead to another championship.

I hope you enjoyed this. No, really, I do. Later.

A Closer Look: My First Draft of 2009, Rounds 1-10

2009-02-16T11:15:00.000-08:00

When I started this blog two years ago I had the intention of using it to discuss fantasy baseball. It hasn't really happened, so I figured with my dad off today I'd use a blog post to dissect my first (real) draft of this year. Yesterday afternoon I took part in a Yahoo Public league draft and I believe I came out of it with an excellent team. I'd done three complete drafts for this style of 5x5, 12-team league over at Mock Draft Central, and I felt pretty prepared going in.

I purchased the Rotoworld Draft Guide for the third straight year, and my membership at MDC allowed me to look over their Average Draft Position (ADP) data. Basically, they take all the qualifying drafts and average where players are being taken. I use that to gauge what kind of value I can get by taking certain players at certain positions. As for the Draft Guide, they do a bang-up job with projections and the comments they've generated for each player are very helpful while drafting. Those are the two points of reference I use for these Yahoo drafts.

I'll run through the roster requirements for Yahoo Public leagues: C 1B 2B 3B SS OF OF OF Util SP SP RP RP P P P BN BN BN BN BN. I typically like to draft three relievers, use a bench spot each for an outfielder, a middle infielder and a corner infielder, and use the last two bench spots for starting pitchers. It's a formula that's won be championships every year I've played in Yahoo leagues.

I've honed my philosophy in drafts through the years, and I find my strategies to be pretty solid. I strive for balanced offense in my position players, guys who will contribute in all five categories (AVE, HR, RBI, R, SB). You won't see guys like Adam Dunn or Juan Pierre on my team. I try not to look too heavily on last year's performance; I want to know what they'll do this year. That means drafting for upside, especially late in drafts. I also try hard not to draft guys out of positional necessity (like taking a guy a couple rounds too early just because you need someone at that position), but that's easier said than done, as you'll see.

Drafting pitchers early is overrated. I'm not averse to taking a starter with my first six picks, but I won't take more than two in my first ten. And I never, ever take a closer in my first ten picks. Paying for saves is the biggest mistake fantasy players make. You can pick up saves off the waiver wire no sweat when the season begins. I say take those first ten picks to address your offense, which is much harder to come by during the season.

Anyway, let's hop into it. I was awarded the 2nd pick in the draft, which I hate because it means you have to wait forever for your next pick (the 23rd). I will bold the players I take because I don't feel like writing out the names of the other owners.

Round 1
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. David Wright
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Jose Reyes
6. Grady Sizemore
7. Ryan Braun
8. Josh Hamilton
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Mark Teixeira
11. Ryan Howard
12. Jimmy Rollins

Hanley's been going #1 in most drafts, and picking #2, I thought I'd be "stuck" with A-Rod. I only say it that way because who knows what kind of effect all the steroids crap will have on him. So to my surprise, Pujols went #1, and I snatched up Hanley at what I think is a fantastic spot. It will be interesting to see how hitting 3rd in the Marlins' order effects his SB production, but it should help Hanley in all the other categories, especially RBI. He's the ultimate five-category contributor. And to think just four years ago I saw him play in Portland. Elsewhere in this round, the guy who ended up with Miguel Cabrera at #9 was pretty lucky. I think one can make a legitimate argument he should go as high as #6.

Round 2
13. Tim Lincecum
14. Ian Kinsler
15. Evan Longoria
16. B.J. Upton
17. Chase Utley
18. Johan Santana
19. Dustin Pedroia
20. Alfonso Soriano
21. Brian Roberts
22. Lance Berkman
23. Carlos Beltran
24. Manny Ramirez

Before I get to my pick, I have to say taking Lincecum that high is a mistake. I understand that guy wouldn't pick again until #36 but that's still a total reach. Also, way too high on Roberts. Anyway, I don't love taking outfielders so early, but Beltran is a perfect example of my love for five-category contributors. He's one of the most solid performers every year and he's shown no signs of slowing down. There's chance I would have taken Berkman at that spot, however.

Round 3
25. Jason Bay
26. Brandon Phillips
27. Brandon Webb
28. Carlos Lee
29. Carlos Quentin
30. Prince Fielder
31. Matt Holliday
32. Justin Morneau
33. CC Sabathia
34. Ichiro Suzuki
35. Carl Crawford
36. Roy Halladay

I really struggled with this pick. I was hoping for Pedroia, but he was gone before I had the chance to take Beltran. It was basically between the balance guy in Phillips and the power guys in Fielder and Morneau. In the end I went with the balance guy. If I wind up losing the power categories by slim margains, I'll look back at this pick and grimace. Hopefully Phillips will keep up his production from the last two years and not hurt me too badly with his mediocre batting average. Also, notice the guy who took Lincecum also took Halladay. Go figure.

Round 4
37. Aramis Ramirez
38. Vladimir Guerrero
39. Cole Hamels
40. David Ortiz
41. Matt Kemp
42. Brian McCann
43. Dan Haren
44. Jake Peavy
45. Daisuke Matsuzaka
46. Joe Mauer
47. Nick Markakis
48. Jonathan Papelbon

I was really hoping to take a pitcher here. I'd have been satisified with Hamels, Haren or Peavy, especially Haren because he's so rock solid. But all those guys went, and after the guy in front of me took Mauer, there sat Markakis. According to Rotoworld, he's the 8th-best outfielder for '09 (projection: .308-26-100-106-12), just below Beltran, and his ADP is 34.37. Even though I could have waited for another outfielder, I couldn't pass up Markakis at that spot with that kind of value. I would have been an idiot to reach for someone like Beckett or Lackey instead. At this point, I'm more than happy about all my picks.

Round 5
49. Alexei Ramirez
50. Kevin Youkilis
51. Jermaine Dye
52. Adrian Gonzalez
53. Russell Martin
54. Joe Nathan
55. Alex Rios
56. Garrett Atkins
57. Curtis Granderson
58. Nate McClouth
59. Shane Victorino
60. Geovany Soto

Here's where things get a little tricky. It definitely wasn't a reach for me to take Youkilis here (ADP: 38.03), but Rotoworld isn't terribly high on him (.288-21-99-97-3) and he doesn't steal much. What made him more attractive to me is his 3B eligibility, and that, for whatever reason, is a pretty weak position this year. I'm hoping his numbers wind up somewhere closer his output from last season, but he is a bit more of a risk than Gonzalez. Again, this is not a reach as far as value, but perhaps I did draft him a bit out of position necessity. I'll be fine with that as long as he produces.

Round 6
61. Chris Davis
62. Jacoby Ellsbury
63. Francisco Liriano
64. Corey Hart
65. John Lackey
66. Josh Beckett
67. Magglio Ordonez
68. Victor Martinez
69. Ryan Doumit
70. Jon Lester
71. Chad Billingsley
72. Mariano Rivera

The top-tier starters were going fast, and I decided I needed to do something. I may have taken Lester had he been available, but I feel pretty confident about Billingsley's ability to grow into a #1 starter. He's coming off a bizarre winter broken leg, but by all accounts he's fine and will be ready to go from Opening Day. Rotoworld expects about a strikeout per inning, which is really what you want from a top fantasy starter. It may have been a reach (ADP: 89.16) but I could take the chance given the strength of my top five picks. And as you'll see starting with my next pick, I won't be making anymore reaches for a while.

Round 7
73. A.J. Burnett
74. Chipper Jones
75. Dan Uggla
76. Brad Lidge
77. Roy Oswalt
78. Francisco Rodriguez
79. Felix Hernandez
80. Michael Young
81. Rafael Furcal
82. Jay Bruce
83. Troy Tulowitzki
84. Robinson Cano

This was by far my least favorite pick in this draft. As I mentioned above, third base is a very weak spot this year. Once you get past Aramis Ramirez, it's a steep drop-off to the next group, which includes Jones. I would have really liked to take Chris Davis here, but the lid has been completely blown off his sleeper-ness and he went early in the sixth round. Also, my computer decided to start sucking and slow way down (it also inexplicably closed all the tabs I had open with Rotoworld and MDC information), and I had to make a snap decision. Rotoworld is only projecting 434 ABs for Jones this year, and odds are he'll get hurt again. This was an excellent value pick (ADP: 51.28) but I'd just like to have certainty about what I'll get out of a player at such a key position. At this point I knew I had to ensure the rest of my CI picks would be solid ones.

Round 8
85. Ryan Ludwick
86. Ryan Zimmermann
87. J.J. Hardy
88. Adam Dunn
89. James Shields
90. Derek Jeter
91. Stephen Drew
92. Chone Figgins
93. Yunel Escobar
94. Jose Valverde
95. Ervin Santana
96. Carlos Zambrano

I've now filled my quota for pitchers in the first ten rounds. I believe Santana provides excellent value here (ADP: 78.43) and the best may be yet to come from him after a spectacular 2008. With my top two pitchers, I've taken two one K per inning young guys with low ratios with upside to improve, and they'll also be playing for winning teams. While Lackey might get more of the hype, Santana has really emerged as the Angels' ace and I'm excited to see what he'll do for my team this year.

Round 9
97. Cliff Lee
98. Carlos Pena
99. Jhonny Peralta
100. Scott Kazmir
101. Rich Harden
102. Edinson Volquez
103. Joey Votto
104. Yovani Gallardo
105. Howie Kendrick
106. Jose Lopez
107. Joakim Soria
108. Vernon Wells

I know what you're thinking: how could I have taken a guy who won't give me much in AVE and SB in my first ten picks? Well, grabbing Pena here (ADP: 67.88) made a lot of sense for me in part to make up for the lost power from the Phillips pick and to give me excellent insurance should Jones miss a prolonged period of time. For now, Pena will take up residence as my Util but he gives me flexibility to move other people around as well. And just maybe he'll outperform the .252 Rotoworld has him slated to hit this year.

Round 10
109. Javier Vazquez
110. Joba Chamberlain
111. Bengie Molina
112. Matt Wieters
113. Bobby Abreu
114. Carlos Marmol
115. Pablo Sandoval
116. Derek Lee
117. Johnny Damon
118. Bobby Jenks
119. Hunter Pence
120. Mike Aviles

I could have waited to take my 3rd outfielder. I needed a catcher in this round much worse, but several of them went off the board before I had the chance to make this pick. Pence was very frustrating to own for most of last year, but he's still very young and just need to cut down on his K's to be one of the top fantasy OFs and a five-category contributor. But most of all, this guy was just sitting out there to be taken when he should have been gone three rounds earlier. It's that kind of value I just couldn't pass up. I mean, really, .280-28-99-81-14 in the 10th round? Where do I sign up? Now that my top 10 picks were over, I could begin to concentrate on finding the best guys for my pitching staff. All the top closers are off the board at this point, but I'm not remotely worried. I begin to address the saves issue at pick #122, which I'll discuss next time.

The Era of False Outrage - A-Rod and the Juice

2009-02-10T19:19:00.000-08:00

I know I said I'd wait until the weekend to comment on the Alex Rodriguez situation, but I have so many thoughts I feel I need to get them out now. I've typically refrained from talking about steroids in my blogs, but I did when the Rafael Palmiero bombshell broke in '05 and then last year when the Mitchell Report was made public. So I'll do it again now, but if I had my druthers, I'd never take the time to write anything pertaining to steroids again.

I say this not just because steroids discussions are almost always centered in the past as opposed to the present and future (which I believe are more important than anything that happened 8 or 10 years ago), but because there's a ton of false outrage out there about steroids.

We live in the Era of False Outrage. Twice in the course of a week, we got to see this era at its best (or worst), first with the Michael Phelps bong hit and now with A-Rod's revelation. In this Era of False Outrage, TV talking heads, radio wingnuts, high-flaunting bloggers and message board wackos get to spend hours on end going completely berserk when their favorite celebrities/athletes/politicians/anyone in the public eye at all does something stupid, and these reactions typically don't look beyond the surface of what that indiscretion was. Within a few days, it's often forgotten. It's not likely to be the case here, but the speed at which we move on from things purported to be so awful makes the Era of False Outrage that much more infuriating.

Admittedly, the Phelps and A-Rod situations are different. Phelps put himself in a bad place and was caught in the act. To me, his biggest offense wasn't smoking pot; his biggest offense was getting caught. What percentage of white bread American 23-year-old dudes over the last 40 years has smoked pot? And what percentage of the people spewing False Outrage over this hit the bong when they were 23? Of course, when they were 23, cell phone cameras never existed. You mean to tell me Bill Walton wasn't puffing the magic dragon with his Portland teammates when he was a rookie in 1975, and also happened to be 23? We'll never know, because no one was there snapping pictures to sell to tabloids. So does this mean that what Phelps did was OK? Well...maybe I'm the wrong person to ask, since I think pot should be legal. (Before you call me a pothead, I have a clear argument for why I feel this way. But that's for another day.)

Anyway, A-Rod's case is different, like I mentioned. For two seasons and part of a third (at least long enough for there to be a positive test, if A-Rod is to be believed) one of the most talented men ever to step on a baseball field polluted his body with illegal substances because he felt "enormous pressure to perform" after signing the biggest contract in history (only to be trumped seven years later by...himself). A-Rod said he hasn't taken illegal substances since spring training of 2003 (we only have his word to go on, although he hasn't tested positive since then).

If not for four sources breaking the law and telling SI that A-Rod was on the government-protected list of 104 positive tests from the initial 2003 testing period, we'd almost certainly never know A-Rod did steroids. That makes his admission seem all the more pompous and self-centered. Rob Neyer feels A-Rod is most sorry about getting caught, and probably doesn't feel like he himself did anything wrong (sounds Blago-esque, almost). That's not going to keep him from telling kids not to do steroids, as we're almost guaranteed to see an A-Rod PSA within the next six weeks or so.

This brings me to my larger point, which also ties back to the Era of False Outrage. People forget that in 2001, the same year Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs, Major League Baseball had fostered a rich drug culture that allowed every player to experiment with performance enhancers free of penalty (unless, of course, the authorities caught them. Anyone else remember this little incident?). Steroids were actually illegal in baseball starting in 1991, but there was no way for the rules to be enforced.

From the late 1980s until 2002, MLB essentially told its players, "We know these drugs are illegal, and can have adverse health effects. But we also know it will help you perform better on the field, attract more fans, and make all of us more money. So we'll let you keep doing it, as long as everyone plays by the what-happens-in-the-clubhouse-stays-there rules." For a long time, it worked. After the strike, two juiced-up sluggers helped revitalize the game with a home run race for the ages. Attendance soared, revenues skyrocketed, and people cared about the game just as much as they had before 1994.

And then, Ken Caminiti broke ranks, and became the prime source for Tom Verducci's earth-shattering June 2002 SI cover story that changed baseball (and my life, for reasons pertaining to the power of journalism) forever. This quote from the late Caminiti highlights the zeitgeist of an time when players saw steroids as not just a choice, but a necessity to get by:

"If a young player were to ask me what to do," Caminiti continued, "I'm not going to tell him it's bad. Look at all the money in the game: You have a chance to set your family up, to get your daughter into a better school.... So I can't say, 'Don't do it,' not when the guy next to you is as big as a house and he's going to take your job and make the money."

Athletes, in particular professional ones, are the most competitive people on the planet. That competitiveness presents a double-edged sword for people like me who live for sports. On one hand, if athletes weren't highly-competitive, we'd have no reason to watch. If they don't care, why should we? At the same time, hyper-competitive athletes can tend to have darker sides. That includes doing whatever it takes to get ahead, to be the best, to beat your opponents and even your teammates to get to the pinnacle of sport. Many will resort to Machiavellian tactics, as a large percentage of players in baseball's steroids era did.

So when Texas gave a 25-year-old $252 million during what could only be described as the height of the performance-enhancement era of baseball, and as a 25-year-old felt pressure from all sides to live up to this contract, and the sport he played had enabled an entire culture of chemical advantages that could turn a skinny outfielder into a 70+ homer behemoth in just a few years and could make average players into All-Stars without consequences, I'm supposed to be outraged when I find out that 25-year-old decided to give steroids a whack? Are you kidding me? Like A-Rod, because he's such a great player, is just a saint among men, and would never ever do such a thing. I wasn't born yesterday, or at least, was born before the Verducci article came out.

So when I hear the False Outrage machine blaring about A-Rod, and steroids, and how "these guys are role models" and "trashing the history of the game," I can't do anything but laugh. I don't think athletes should be role models for kids beyond what they do on the field. When you watch A-Rod he always plays hard, he never dogs it on the basepaths or in the field, and his approach at the plate is among the best in history. That's the type of role model he should be: this is how you play the game. Beyond that, asking these pro athletes to lead squeaky clean lives is too much. The guys like Mike Lowell, Nick Lidstrom and Steve Nash are harder to come by than you'd think.

The "trashing of history" is equally hilarious. I have a profound love and respect for the history of baseball that will never, ever, ever be shaken. But I don't expect everyone to feel the same way (there may have been a time when I did, but I've grown up since then), and I especially don't think most of these cut-throat millionaire primadonnas who willingly shrank the size of their gonads just to get an edge really cared about what they did to history. All they were thinking about was being the best and striking it big on their next contract. If they thought that little of their own well-being, why should they care at all about their place among guys who did it right like Christy Mathewson, Lou Gehrig, and Stan Musial?

So am I saying it's OK that A-Rod did steroids? No. Unlike pot, I think anabolic steroids and other dangerous chemicals used for such purposes are rightfully illegal. Yet MLB CREATED AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE IT WAS ACCEPTED AND EVEN EXPECTED FOR STEROIDS TO BE DONE. Why should any of us be outraged that A-Rod, one of the most narcassitic players of his generation, did steroids when baseball wasn't going to penalize him?

As far as I'm concerned, the whole era is completely tainted. No one is above suspicion who played in that era. Not one player. I'd like to believe Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Frank Thomas, Derek Jeter, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Ken Griffey, Jr. never took steriods, but I can't be 100% sure. At the same time, I believe Sammy Sosa, Bret Boone, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Albert Belle and Nomar Garciaparra among others did take steroids, but I can't be 100% sure (H/T to Buster Olney, he's the proprietor of this idea).

A-Rod did the smart thing by saying he did steroids and will likely be better off in the long run because of it, even if most people don't realize he probably would have just kept lying about it had his privacy not been breached in the first place (which Doug Glanville covers marvelously in this NY Times op-ed).

Anyway, I'm not sure if any of what I've just written makes sense. It's late and I have to get up to write a story about ice dams, maybe. But I'm ready for the Era of False Outrage to end. You know what we really ought to be outraged about? The economy, that's what.

Bye.

Winter's Almost Done

2009-02-07T19:00:00.000-08:00

I haven't checked in for a while, and we're getting pretty close to the start of spring training, so I thought now was a good time to post. I've been working full-time in Newburyport for the past few weeks so it's one of those things where writing for fun hasn't carried the same significance. It's been fantastic so far, and finally getting paid to write stuff is awesome.

Also, the Bruins' stretch of excellence has awakened my love for hockey that's mostly been dormant since junior high, so I can honestly say I've paid less attention to the hot stove this winter than any in the last few years (that doesn't mean I'm not obsessive about it, just not as obsessive). I've seriously considered starting a hockey blog, and I'm also getting to the point where I'll be consciously shutting out most sports chatter from my life besides baseball and hockey. Well, at least until football comes back.

Next weekend I'll be back with my annual American League preview, starting as always with the AL East sans Red Sox. And I won't be commenting on the A-Rod situation in this format until then at the earliest.

Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Fort Myers in just a few days. With the signing of Jason Varitek to what amounts to a two-year, $8 million deal, the Sox will head into spring training with a club with several big questions, including but not limited to:

Will J.D. Drew, David Ortiz and Mike Lowell be healthy enough to play all year? Which Josh Beckett will we get this season, the 2007 or 2008 version? Can Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jon Papelbon improve on their '08 successes? Who will be the fifth starter? What will be the breakdown in playing time between Varitek and Josh Bard? Does Varitek really have anything left? Who starts at shortstop on Opening Day, Julio Lugo or Jed Lowrie? Can Jacoby Ellsbury handle being the undisputed #1 center fielder for the Sox? How long will Mark Kotsay be out, and will Brad Wilkerson step up in his absence? Which of the Sox low-risk signings (John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Rocco Baldelli, Takashi Saito, Bard) will pan out? Which will bust? Who's going to contribute in the bullpen, and who'll drop off?

That's more questions than I expected to have when I started writing that paragraph. If the answers to all those pan out in club's favor, there's no reason why they won't finish first in the AL East regardless of what kind of seasons are had in Tampa and New York. And I believe most of them will. I'm most concerned about the trio of veteran hitters.

But Theo Epstein has set the Red Sox up very well for 2009. They failed in pursuit of Mark Teixeira, but wound up with the aforementioned five-some of free agents plus Mark Kotsay for a total of $14 million in guaranteed money (remember that Bard's $1.7 million is part of a non-guaranteed deal), which is $6 million less than what the Yankees will pay Teixeira this year.

Epstein knows of the risks carried by Drew, Lowell and Ortiz. Epstein knows the economic climate of baseball will cause poorer teams to shed high-salaried stars by the spring and summer if their attendance plummets. So the Red Sox are in a great position to pick up these players should they have needs to address during the season.

Teams like Colorado, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Detroit, Houston, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Texas come to mind as potential salary-dumpers. And don't expect many of them to wait until July 31 to make a move. If these teams are sagging in attendance, don't feel they can be competitive, and are just in general hemorrhaging money come as early as May, their respective ownerships will push to move players to cut costs.

The Red Sox are one of the fortunate teams that will be able to pick up the pieces, and Epstein knows it.

That's all for now.

Checking In on NYE

2008-12-31T11:41:00.000-08:00

I've just got a few things to cover here before we say goodbye to 2008:

News broke Sunday night of the Red Sox reaching contract agreements with Brad Penny and Josh Bard on one-year deals. I'm a big fan of both moves, as they help the Sox address needs in a low-cost, high-reward fashion, especially in the case of Penny.

As I mentioned last week, the Sox had been "monitoring" Penny with an eye towards bringing him aboard for 2009. He threw only 94 innings last year and dealt with shoulder and elbow pain all along. Penny had several other suitors for his services, but in the end decided to come to Boston because he wants to win.

Penny was coming off excellent back-to-back seasons for the Dodgers, going 32-13 with a 3.64 ERA in 397 innings between 2006 and 2007. After the arm issues, and some problems with LA management, Penny's 2009 option was declined, and now he finds himself coming to Boston for $5 million plus $3 million in potential incentives based on innings pitched.

We've seen the Red Sox take on these types of pitchers before. In 2005, they gave $1.5 million to Wade Miller, and he did admirably in around 100 innings. Last year, they brought in Bartolo Colon on a minor league deal, and when he wasn't breaking the record for most pulled muscles in a single game in Philly, he pitched pretty well.

But the Red Sox are making a more significant investment in Penny than those others, at least in terms of actual dollars. They certainly feel if even relatively healthy Penny could be more than just a No. 5 starter. It also won't preclude them from going after other starters like Ben Sheets or Kenshin Kawakami because they won't know what they have with Penny until spring training.

In short, the Red Sox could be getting a lot for very little, and I like Penny's chances to make 20-25 starts and really contribute significantly to the '09 Red Sox. If not, at least they won't have paid him as much as they paid Curt Schilling to sit out the '08 season.

You may remember Josh Bard as the poor kid charged with catching Tim Wakefield at the outset of the 2006 season, but he just couldn't hang on to Wake's knucklers, and was traded to San Diego in one of the worst deals of the Theo Epstein era. Bard split time behind the dish with Mike Piazza and astonishingly hit .338 with a .943 OPS in 93 games for the Padres. He was also the Padres' primary catcher in 2007 but ran into some injury/ineffectiveness problems last year, batting just .202 and catching only 49 games.

With the catching market so thin, and Kevin Cash gone to the Yankees, the Sox must have felt some urgency to at least have one catcher under their control with significant major league experience. That's what they have now in Bard, whose one-year, $1.6 million contract is not guaranteed, certainly a rarity in major league contracts today. Again, I have to say I'm a big fan of the move.

There's no doubt the Red Sox still want Jason Varitek back. He's the team captain, he knows the pitchers in and out, he still plays terrific defense and it's awfully hard to see this club without him. I am still yet to hear definitively that a team besides Boston has any interest in Varitek. Scott Boras must face the facts: at this point, Varitek only has value to the Red Sox, and no team is willing to give up their first-round pick to sign a catcher who struck out 122 times in 423 ABs last year (I'm beginning to sound like a broken record here).

So if Varitek wants to play next year it will have to be with the Red Sox. By signing Bard, the Red Sox now gain more leverage in negotiations with Boras. They can say they've got a guy capable of being a primary catcher, and they can still sign someone like Gregg Zaun, Toby Hall or Johnny Estrada to split time with Bard. So either Boras can let his client continue to wait for a job somewhere that is highly unlikely to materialize, or he can return to Boston for something much closer to Boston's price. That could still be a two-year deal, but probably not for the $10 million AAV he got in his least deal. It's also possible Boras could wind up looking bad for not accepting arbitration for Varitek.

So what exactly Bard's role will be for Boston next year is unknown until they get another catcher. We know Bard can't catch Wakefield, and I've heard the Red Sox may ask Varitek to catch Wake as he did from 1998-2000 if he were to return. My guess is that if Varitek does sign, he will probably receive more time off in 2009 than he has in the past, and the Red Sox will continue to look via trade for his long-term replacement (Saltalamacchia, Montero, Clement, et al). We'll see where the Varitek talks go from here.

A Pitcher's Market, Part II

2008-12-27T17:43:00.000-08:00

Let's continue our look at the free agent starters still available as we head into the new year...

Oliver Perez - Age: 27 - 2008 salary: $6.5 million
Scott Boras would like you to believe Perez is one of the five best left-handed pitchers in all of baseball, but like most of what Boras says, that's crap. Perez was around average last season, only managing a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 194 innings. But he's young, one of the youngest of all free agent starters this offseason, and he has shown flashes of greatness dating back to his debut with the Padres in 2000. The Mets want Perez back, but the price they're willing to pay is not yet known. Boras will try to push for five years, but again, this isn't the kind of winter where teams not named the Yankees are able to dish out that kind of contract length for far from sure-things. I can't see Perez leaving the NL, but if an AL team came calling with something close to what Boras is demanding, they might have to jump on it. I suspect the Mets might be better off with Jon Garland anyway.

Andy Pettitte - Age: 36 - 2008 salary: $16 million
It's been a great career for Pettitte. He was an integral part of every Yankees' team that made it to a World Series during these past two decades. He went to Houston, close to his Louisiana home, and helped them get to a World Series. Even though he was implicated in baseball's various steroid scandals, he was one of few stars to admit HGH use, and escaped that particular scandal because everyone made Roger Clemens out to be the real villain. Pettitte's had two solid seasons back with the Yankees, and they have a $10 million offer out for Pettitte to return as their 2009 fifth starter. They now seem more willing to go with Phil Hughes following the Teixeira signing, but there's still a chance it happens. Should the offer be pulled, it's safe to say Pettitte will consider joining rotation-mate Mike Mussina in retirement. The Astros probably don't have the money Pettitte would want at this point.

Ben Sheets - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $12.125 million
Has anyone been more frustrating to fantasy owners over the years than Ben Sheets? He always appears so tantalizing, because everyone knows his stuff is still at its 2004 level, when a 25-year-old Sheets struck out 264 batters with a 2.70 ERA and a microscopic 0.98 WHIP in 237 innings. In 2008, Sheets came within two innings of throwing 200 for the first time since that magical '04 season, but an elbow injury crept up at the worst possible time. He tried to gut through it, but was abysmal in a nationally-televised start against the Cubs during the last weekend of the season. That injury likely cost Sheets millions this winter. The Yankees had been linked to Sheets during the winter meetings, but recent rumblings have the Rangers preparing to make a run. Jon Daniels says there's been no offer, but there has been contact between the two parties. It's predictable for the Rangers to go after a pitcher like Sheets, and but if Sheets wants to live up to his potential he sure as hell won't do it playing in Arlington. If the Red Sox are feeling more ambitious than just going after Brad Penny, I don't see why it would hurt to make a play for Sheets. They could give him two years at around $14-$15 million annually and see what happens. Again, it's a tough winter for a guy like Sheets to be a free agent. If anyone gives him more than two guaranteed years, I'll be surprised.

More tomorrow.

A Pitcher's Market, Part I

2008-12-27T08:36:00.000-08:00

On the heels of Randy Johnson's new one-year pact with the Giants, let's take a look at some of the many options remaining in the free agent pitching market. As I mentioned yesterday, there's been very little movement in the overall market but especially with starting pitchers, where only CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett have signed out of all the top-tier candidates. Here we go:

Jon Garland - Age: 29 - 2008 salary: $12 million
Garland is coming off his seventh consecutive season with over 190 innings under his belt. He'd probably be in line for a deal like Carlos Silva's or Gil Meche's or even better in any other year. Unfortunately for Garland, the best he'll probably be able to do in 2009 is a three-year pact with an option for a fourth with an average right around his $12 million 2008 salary. Deep in this Heyman article (with a headline that makes me grit my teeth) is mention that the Dodgers, White Sox, and Mets are options for Garland, and Heyman also makes the excellent point that Garland is "two years younger than Burnett with a better lifetime record (106-89)." I believe Garland could trive in the National League as a potential No. 2 starter. Should the Mets lose out on one of Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez, I see them making a play for Garland, and I doubt they'll be disappointed with the outcome.

Braden Looper - Age: 34 - 2008 salary: $5.5 million
Looper has been solid in two seasons as a starter for the Cardinals, and he's looking for a multi-year deal heading into 2009. The team most interested in his services appears to be the Brewers, but nothing is likely to get done until after the New Year. A nice two- or three-year deal could be in the works, and the Brewers need all the help they can get after losing Sabathia and potentially Ben Sheets.

Derek Lowe - Age: 35 - 2008 salary: $10 million
There's no question that Lowe is one of a select few free agents the Red Sox have let go in recent years that done very, very well in a different uniform. Lowe was consistently excellent for four years in Dodger Blue, his ERA never getting higher than 3.88 and his IP never getting lower than 199. He's still got that great sinking fastball, and he's one of few starting pitchers in this market likely to get four years, despite his age. The Mets are reportedly deep in negotiations with Lowe, but nothing his imminent, according to Omar Minaya. I've heard the Red Sox are maintaining contact with Lowe, and Lowe would love to come back to Boston, but I'd be surprised if that's the rout the Sox go. Lowe's numbers came while playing in the weakest-hitting division in baseball, and teams must be aware of that while courting him. I expect Lowe to wind up with the Mets on a four-year deal that will pay him around $15-$16 million per year, slightly less than Burnett's deal with the Yankees.

Brad Penny - Age: 30 - 2008 salary: $9.25 million.
Penny only made 17 starts in 2008 while dealing with constant pain in his right shoulder. There's been durability issues with Penny throughout his career, and he's only thrown 200 innings twice. Still, Penny is only a year removed from finishing 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting, and the talent has always been there. The Red Sox were said to be "monitoring" Penny at the beginning of the offseason, and his name has come up constantly as a possibility for that fifth slot in their rotation. I personally would love to see Boston take a flier on Penny and see what happens. He would not cost a lot in money and years. I'm sure plenty of other teams have interest as well.

More to come.

I'm Back...

2008-12-26T08:29:00.000-08:00

I'm home for winter break, and I promised myself I'd write more as a result. To update you about my life, I just had perhaps the most fun three months of my college years, working for an amazing school newspaper, getting to cover the two best teams at UNH, meeting tons of new people and making lifelong friendships as a result. I have concluded taking classes and after this brief respite, I'll be doing my UNH journalism internship at the Daily News of Newburyport on the North Shore. My work will be varied and interesting, and hopefully I'll get to cover some high school baseball after the snow melts. Then in May I will get that diploma, and in these uncertain times, we all have to hope for the best when it comes to getting jobs. But that's in the future. Right now, I'm just trying to relax for these few weeks before beginning my life in the work force.

I did get a chance to write about baseball during my tenure at TNH, including this Red Sox post-mordem that would have fit perfectly here at JBB. Take a look if you want to recall the pain of the end of the 2008 season. I know, I'm so good at marketing myself.

Let's head right into the big news of this week, that being the revelation the New York Yankees have pockets deeper than the Mariana Trench. They swooped in at the very last second to sign the crowned jewel of the free agent season, Mark Teixeira, to an eight-year deal worth a reported $180 million. This comes a few short weeks after the Bombers came to agreements with stud free agent arms CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett for $161 million and $82.5 million, respectively. So while the Yankees have committed $423.5 million to their future this offseason, no other team has made what you'd call just a "splash" in the most timid baseball winter in recent history.

The Red Sox, in particular Theo Epstein, were enamored with Teixeira, and badly wanted to sign the slugging first baseman not just for next year but to be their mid-lineup stalwart for several years to come. But they only wanted to sign him for their price, and their reported final offer for Tex was $12 million short of what the Yankees will give him.

When Epstein, Larry Lucchino and John Henry flew to Texas to meet with Teixeira and his agent Scott Boras, I was fairly confident the latter two would be joining the former three on their way back to Boston. Of course, this wasn't the case. Boras played his typical game, telling the Sox he had much bigger offers on the table for Teixeira, and Henry chose to call his bluff by publicly proclaiming the Red Sox would "not be a factor" in the bidding for Teixeira's services.

I felt like the major media outlets got it all wrong when they claimed the next day that the Red Sox were out of running entirely for Teixeira. The wording of Henry's statement did not close the door at all. But maybe in the end they were right. I wonder if Teixeira was put off by the often off-putting duo of Lucchino and Henry, and instructed his agent to do whatever it took to get him into pinstripes.

Until Tuesday, it didn't seem like the Yankees were really seriously considering signing Teixeira. They'd already brought on two huge contracts this winter, traded for Nick Swisher, and their glut of corner outfield/first base/DH types seemed to keep them out of the running. Well, looking back, it's clear they wanted Teixiera all along, and were willing to wait for all the other offers to come in just so they could trump them by about $10 million or so. The Nationals may have had the biggest offer on the table, but there was no reason to believe Teixeira, who wanted to play for a winner, that he'd actually sign with either his hometown Orioles or Washington.

There's still a lot we don't know. Murray Chass (who somehow has a blog even though he remembers the McKinley Administration) believes Teixeira and his wife didn't want to live in Boston, and chose New York instead. This might be true, and if so it makes me feel better about the situation. But I can't help but feel for a measly (to the Sox) $2-$3 million more per year, they might have been able to convince the Teixeiras to set aside their reservations about Boston. Then again, maybe it was Teixeira's desire all along to play for New York, and the Yankees' interest was stoked as soon as that fact became apparent to them. Maybe the Red Sox never really wanted Tex as much as what had been reported all winter. It's hard to say right now.

The Red Sox are not screwed for the 2009 season because of this. They will cross their fingers and hope Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, and J.D. Drew have fully healthy seasons, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis replicate their 2008 successes, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia become the game's best 1-2 punch. Signing Teixeira would have taken a considerable amount of pressure off all those players, and Lowell would have been playing at a different address. I've heard Lowell felt betrayed by all the Teixeira talk, which is unfortunate considering Lowell is probably the best guy in baseball and doesn't deserve to be jerked around like this. Hopefully this will motivate him to come back stronger than ever from hip surgery. Also, Youkilis will likely be the everyday cleanup hitter for the Sox, a role he seemed to thrive in down the stretch and in the playoffs. If they want a bona fide mid-lineup star, they will have to wait until next offseason to go after Matt Holliday, or maybe Albert Pujols in two years.

Don't get any ideas in your head that the Sox might go after Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, or Bobby Abreu. They were either going to sign Teixeira or have a relatively quiet offseason as far as signing free agents. This article by Sean McAdam points out how futile the Red Sox view the free agent market. The current Red Sox administration will never spend half a billion dollars on free agents in one offseason, and it's hard not to respect them for that. Epstein refuses to get into bidding wars with his rivals, and he won't let the Yankees dictate his own moves the way Dan Duquette and Lou Gorman did.

The Sox need to focus now on their catching situation after the Yankees pilfered Kevin Cash the same day they yanked Tex off the market. Boras is having a tough time shopping Jason Varitek to other teams, mostly because the Red Sox offered Tek arbitration and no team wants to give up their first round pick for a soon-to-be 37-year-old oft-injured catcher who sported a .672 OPS last year. Conventional wisdom would say Varitek comes back to the Red Sox on a two-year deal that will pay him around his $10 million salary from last year. Because neither party has much of an option elsewhere, this should be the way it goes down. Needless to say, Boras is a slippery fuck. So anything can happen.

That's all I've got for today. I'll be back soon with thoughts on the still-vast free agent pitching market, and how frugal teams like Boston, Tampa, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Arizona could come up with some big bargains by waiting. I hope everyone had a good Christmas.

LCS Previews

2008-10-08T21:34:00.000-07:00

The NLCS will commence in Philadelphia Thursday night, so I figured I would get on here and give my brief previews for that series and the ALCS set to kick off Friday in St. Petersburg. There's a ton of intrigue involved in both matchups, and I'm happy that all four teams remaining are excellent clubs and are all conceivably good enough to win the World Series. I'll start out with the National League:

Dodgers v. Phillies: Both clubs defeated NL Central foes, with the Dodgers completing a sweep against the Cubs and Philly taking four games to dispatch Milwaukee. Each team has balance on offense, terrific starters and a deep, strong bullpen. For LA it's their first NLCS in 20 years and for the Phillies it's been 15. They've both had good teams in the interim years but never could quite get over the top. Now they'll vie for a chance to be the NL representative in the Fall Classic.

I wrote in my last post here that LA feels like the Team of Destiny in 2008. Their tight win in Game 3 in front of the LA fans only adds to my feeling on this. To make the Cubs, the best NL club during the regular season, look as poorly as they did in the NLDS is remarkable. They have this Red Sox-esque mix of veterans and young players (I don't have to tell you that some of those guys WERE Red Sox at one point) that works very well for the personality of the club. Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Derek Lowe and Juan Pierre and well-complimented by the likes of Matt Kemp, James Loney, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin, Blake DeWitt, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathon Broxton. They've got an energy and feel about them great playoff teams always possess. And it doesn't hurt that Joe Torre is at the helm. He's been through a few of these before himself.

As for Philly, their pitching carried them through the Milwaukee series with strong outings in each of the four contests. Cole Hamels has emerged as a bonafide ace for this club, and if they can continue to get strong outings from Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer this series may go the distance. Of course, the Phillies offense is nothing to sneeze at as well, with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell anchoring the lineup.

Interestingly enough, I watched these teams lock up for a Saturday game in Philadelphia in late August. It was the 2nd game of an eventual series sweep for the Phillies, with Cole Hamels dominating and Clayton Kershaw looking very much like a 20-year-old. What got me about this game was the middle of the Dodgers' order, with Manny hitting cleanup and playing left, with Nomar hitting 5th at shortstop. It felt like 2002 all over again.

Anyway, I could see Hamels going out and knocking the Dodgers off their momentum somewhat by taking the first game. After that, however, I see this series as all Dodgers. If they can take Game 2 in Philly I feel very confident they'll win all three games at LA. This is their year to make it to the World Series. It pains me to predict this because no town needs a title of any kind more than Philly. They have a good team, and maybe this group will win the first major sports title for Philadelphia since 1983. But I just feel like it's not their year.

Red Sox v. Rays: I figured there was a very good chance this could have been the 2010 or 2012 ALCS matchup. But never did I think coming into this year that it could be the 2008 ALCS matchup. I'm still having a tough time taking these Rays seriously. I mean, they're the freaking Rays, aren't they? Imagine the Clippers and Lakers playing for the Western Conference title, or the Blue Jackets taking on the Red Wings for a chance to play for the Stanley Cup. It's just not right. The Rays shouldn't be here. Not now. Not while the Red Sox are still the best franchise in baseball.

But here they are. They took care of the White Sox, despite my best gut feelings. I should have known better, considering the one-dimensional nature of Chicago's club. They've done it with James Shields and Scott Kazmir at the top of their rotation, but I have every reason to believe the rest of their starts won't pan out when the pressure is on in Fenway. The idea of Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine having success in Boston in October might be the biggest "I'll believe it when I see it" scenario I've had in a long time. I almost feel like Joe Maddon is pulling a fast one on us with Sonnanstine and he's really going to start David Price in that game. I mean, really? The guy's got a #1 overall pick with an electric left arm just sitting out in the bullpen and he's going to start Andy Freakin' Sonnanstine over him? Something smells here.

Tampa's offense performed well against Chicago and their success against Boston pitching during the year will give them confidence going in. I do wonder about their bullpen, I'm not sure I would trust Dan Wheeler to close out a playoff game with 39,000 Sox fans screaming for his head. (That scenario is applicable to games in both Tampa and Boston). I once had an away message that said: "The three things in the world that I love most: Hot girls, sandwiches, and the Tampa Bay bullpen." I figured that if I was hanging out with hot girls, while downing a steak and cheese, while watching Tampa's parade of 21-year-old-shouldn't-be-in-the-majors-deer-in-the-headlights relievers pitch blow leads against the Red Sox, I'd be in heaven. I'm not sure where I'm going so I'll stop.

This provides a nice segue into my feelings on the Red Sox heading into this series. I have never been prouder of a Red Sox team than I was surrounding this past series against the Angels. I mean that. They played their asses off to win the first two games in LA. They had many opportunties to end the series in Game 3 but couldn't capitalize. They could have withered away in Game 4 after the Masterson Cross-up (which is what that play would have been called for ever if they'd lost that game and eventually the series in LA), but they played tough, and won an incredible game to advance to the ALCS.

There's no question that on paper the Angels were the better team, but they killed themselves with careless mistakes and couldn't make the best of opportunities like the Red Sox did. Erick Aybar's inability to execute a squeeze bunt in that key spot, given the emphasis that Mike Scioscia's clubs put on fundamentals, may have been the biggest surprise of the entire 2008 postseason thus far.

The Sox will miss Mike Lowell dearly. They are a weaker team without him on the field. But Mark Kotsay proved the other night that he can play first base with the best of them, and his scorcher down the line in the 9th should have been the winning hit of Game 4. We know Youk can play a mean 3rd base. And with new, emerging leaders like Jed Lowrie and Jason Bay, I feel more confident than ever about this team's ability to win.

My biggest concern going forward is the bullpen, and in particular, the ability of Jonathon Papelbon to bounce back on a day-to-day basis for the rest of the playoffs. I'm confident he will, simply because he's Papelbon, and it's the playoffs. By the way, if you missed his antics after the series clincher Monday night, then I feel bad for you. There is no one on earth like this guy, and we're so lucky to have him around.

Anyway, I have a lot of confidence the Red Sox will be able to capitalize on the youth and inexperience of the Rays in this ALCS. It should be fun to watch the pseudo-home crowd in Tampa, and like the other LCS, I feel if the Sox can take one game in Tampa this series might not get back there for Game 6. Then we'd have the Dodgers-Red Sox match up everyone's been dreaming about.

Of course, that scenario of intrigue almost never happens (see 2003). For the sake of the game, I hope it does.

Remember When I Used to Write About Baseball?

2008-10-03T13:13:00.001-07:00

I have to issue a most serious, sincere apology to all those who have enjoyed reading my thoughts about baseball for the egregious, inexcusable five-month hiatus of Jake's Baseball Blog. I guess I'm just not very good at keeping up two blogs at once, and with this unbelievable election season I have focused my writing for fun over at Blue Musings. What's most inexcusable about my hiatus is that it took place basically during the entirety of the actual season. Now it's October, the leaves are turning, and eight teams are left to vie for the World Series title. And I have regret about not getting my feelings about these last five months out to you.

You never got to hear my feelings on the incredible rise of the Tampa Bay Rays, one of the most surprising playoff teams in recent history. I never let you know how I felt about the New York Mets imploding once again, and the injustice of Omar Minaya's four-year extension. I never wrote here about CC Sabathia's dominance of the NL, Tim Lincecum's breakout season, and Cliff Lee's improbable road to 22 wins. I never came here to discuss the longest All-Star Game in history, and the emotional closing of the stadium where it was played. I never gushed over Dustin Pedroia's MVP season, and him perhaps becoming my favorite Red Sox player ever. And, most regretfully, I never came here to pour out my incredibly conflicted feelings about the trade of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, perhaps the seminal off-the-field happening of my entire time following the Sox.

So, once again, I'm sorry. But I'm here now, and as always, this is the best time to be watching. I'll handicap for you what I expect to see in the remainder of the Division Series.

Dodgers v. Cubs (LA leads 2-0): I think it's safe to say the Dodgers hold that "Team of Destiny" mantle that went along with the Rockies, Tigers, White Sox, and Red Sox in the last four postseasons, respectively. They didn't finish the regular season with a great overall record, and they played rather passively until the trading deadline. Then came Manny. He hit .396 with 17 homers the rest of the way, and the Dodgers essentially left Arizona in the dust for the West Division crown. Now, they're a dynamic group mixing youngsters and veterans, and they're heading back to Chavez Ravine after ripping the Cubs' guts out in two at Wrigley.

It's hard not to feel bad for the Cubs and their fans. They had, on paper, the very best team in the NL all season, and then they run into the momentous Dodgers buzzsaw in October. They didn't just lose those first two games in Chicago: they were embarrassed there. They could never get that vaunted offense going, and both Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano were inconsistent in their starts.

Tomorrow night Hiroki Kuroda will face off against Rich Harden in a do-or-die game for the Cubs. Given Harden's unpredictability, and the likelihood of a raucous Dodgers Stadium crowd, I think this series will be over after tomorrow's game. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers won each of their next five games, either. They are the Team of Destiny in 2008. But, as the Rockies and Tigers proved, the Team of Destiny doesn't always win it all.

Brewers v. Phillies (Philly leads 2-0): My vote for "Least Surprising Outcome Through Two Games in the LDS" goes to this series. The Brewers got into the playoffs by the hair on Prince Fielder's ass, and their big weaknesses have been exposed thus far. Inexperienced guys in clutch situations, bad defense, bullpen woes, and no one to pitch well for extended innings besides Sabathia. His inability to get through the fourth inning in yesterday's game speaks volumes about just how screwed the Brewers are. We saw the same thing last year with Sabathia in the playoffs. It appears that he, like just about any other pitcher these days, just simply can't perform once they his 250 innings in a season.

On the other side, the Phils have seen two excellent starts from Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, and while the ghosts of Brad Lidge's playoff past seemed to come alive in Game 1, he definitely settled down in Game 2. The offense has come up with timely hits with Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino leading the way. Philly will look to Jamie Moyer to close out the series in Milwaukee. I won't rule out one Brewers win at home here, but Hamels will get the ball again Sunday, so I don't expect this series to go much past that. It will be great for the Phillies and their long-suffering fans to finally get back to the NLCS.

Of course, they'll just be heartbroken again after the Dodgers sweep them in that series.

White Sox v. Rays (Tampa Bay leads 1-0): Before this series began, I had this unexplainable, gut feeling that Chicago's momentum from beating the Tigers on Monday and then topping Minnesota in their one-game playoff Tuesday would lead to them pulling the upset against Tampa. I didn't get to see this game last night, but given Javier Vazquez's poor performance, and the apparent cohesiveness of the Tampa offense, I may have to rethink that stance.

Is Tampa's playoff inexperience a curse or a virtue? Will they wilt in key spots or will they be too scared or stupid to know how to act? I'm still having a tough time fathoming that the Tampa Bay Rays are in the playoffs. We are talking about the same Rays that finished last almost every other year of their existence, right? In my AL East preview from February, I said Tampa would be a "fun team to watch in 2008 and may surprise some people," and they could "drum up enough interest to get people out to the Trop even when the Sox or Yanks aren't in town." So I was right in those regards. But I never, ever thought they would have this much success this fast (I picked them to come in 4th), and here they are with homefield advantage in the ALDS.

If Mark Buehrle can stop the Rays train tonight, I'll feel much more confident about my gut feeling of the White Sox winning this series. If not, then I think we can safely pencil the Rays in for the ALCS.

I still can't believe I just wrote that last sentence.

Red Sox v. Angels (Boston leads 1-0): This Red Sox season has certainly not been without drama and intrigue. The Manny Saga aside, we saw awesome years from Pedroia, Youkilis, Lester, Matsuzaka and Papelbon, mediocre seasons from Beckett, Wakefield, the centerfield platoon, Varitek, and the rest of the bullpen, and abysmal/injury-plagued seasons from Buchholz, Drew, Lowell, Ortiz and Lugo. We saw the emergence of young future stalwarts like Jed Lowrie (Lugo only plays on the Red Sox as a $9 millon backup from now on. Period.), Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen. They played their best baseball behind the mid-season acquisitions of Jason Bay, Paul Byrd and Mark Kotsay. It was Bay who hit the go-ahead bomb to give the Red Sox the lead in Game 1 against the Angels. He had exactly the same number of postseason homers in 2008 as Manny. Until about 20 hours later. (Damn you, Manny).

I'm sure there were plenty of people who thought the key injuries to Lowell and Drew, Beckett's first start being pushed back to Sunday, and not having #24 out there would lead to a quick exit from the 2008 playoffs for the Red Sox. Well, they all forgot that these are the Red Sox, and their playoff success has never been about one guy, or two guys, or three guys. It's always been about 25 guys who go out there everyday and wear the jersey with pride, and they respond to the greatest fans in the world each time. They're going to win behind the sterling success of Lester and Dice-K, and the intense, in-your-face, leave-everything-out-there style of Pedroia, Youkilis and Papelbon. Everything else will trickle down from that.

Wednesday's win was the 10th in a row for the Red Sox against the Angels in the postseason, dating way back to that mythical Game 5 of the 1986 ALCS, when Dave Henderson saved the Red Sox season with a homer off Donny Moore (followed by Henderson jumping roughly 25 feet in the air while skipping up the 1st base line). Spike Owen said that on the plane ride back to Boston, all 25 Sox, to a man, knew they'd win Games 6 and 7 to get back to the Series. I almost feel like the Red Sox just know this time around that they're going to win despite the odds. These Angels are a stacked group, the best all-around team in baseball. But there's just something about these two teams getting together. I just think these Sox are a better team than these Angels right now.

If the Sox can manage a win tonight, and head back to Boston 2-0, they will be back to the ALCS for the fourth time in six years. They're on a collision course to face Manny and the Dodgers in the World Series.

I can't even begin to imagine what a series like that will mean.

Jon Lester's Amazing Night

2008-05-20T12:51:00.000-07:00

It's been far too long since my last update, unfortunately I've been preoccupied with school work, getting ready for the summer, "Lost," following the political happenings over at Blue Musings, and watching the Celtics on their run to a 17th NBA title. It's been a ho-hum season in baseball thus far in my opinion, with the Red Sox playing streaky and spending lots of time looking up at the Rays (what?) in the AL East. But everything that I love about baseball came rushing back last night when lymphoma-survivor Jon Lester pitched the greatest game of his life in front of a packed Fenway Park. He no-hit the KC Royals on 130 pitches and reminded everyone, fans and non-fans alike, the power of the human spirit.

Lester had everything going last night. He was hitting 94-95 with his fastball, even after he'd already thrown 115 pitches. His cutter was darting from one side of the plate to the other with ease, and his curve was buckling the knees of Alex Gordon, Jose Guillen and Billy Butler alike. For all of us who've been watching Lester ever since his big league debut in 2006, we always saw the potential. Here was a lefty with good breaking stuff, a fastball that could blow away good hitters, and enough poise to fill an entire stadium. Then came his illness, and we all watched with baited breath as he built his body for a most improbable comeback. His performance in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series was inspirational in the least and a beautiful display of courage we could all appreciate. And last night, Lester finally put together the game we all expected he was capable of.

The best thing I saw from Lester last night was the confidence in his fastball to get ahead of just about every Royals hitter. Lester has been labeled with the dreaded "nibbler" tag to this point in his career, but there was nothing remotely resembling a nibbler on the mound at Fenway last night. He was going right at the free-swinging Royals, and he got the majority of his 27 outs on ground balls. Lester was not afraid to let his sterling defenders (save Julio Lugo) do their jobs behind him, including a spectacular play by Jacoby Ellsbury in the 4th inning that wound up being the closest thing to a hit allowed by Lester all night.

I was worried that once he got past 110 pitches that Terry Francona might pull the plug on Lester's night even if the no-hitter was still going. But Francona kept his man on the hill and allowed him to get to where he could blow away Alberto Callaspo on his 130th and final pitch of the night. Much of the credit for this no-hitter must go to Jason Varitek, who has now caught an all-time record four no-hit games. I don't think that achievement by Varitek is a coincidence. It's even more amazing considering the no-hitters have come from a Japanese hurler (Nomo), a headcase (Lowe) and two kids (Buchholz and Lester). His own composure and prowess at calling games means much more to the pitchers in these situation than any of us can fully appreciate. Here's to hoping Varitek hasn't caught his last no-hitter in a Boston uniform.

I wrote after the World Series about how we wouldn't know about Lester's courage if it wasn't for baseball. I was reminded of this last night. Way to go, Jon.